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Europe's wind farms on track to eclipse coal output in 2025: Maguire

Europe's wind farms could produce more electrical energy than the area's. coalfired power plants for the first time in 2025 if the recent. rate of output development in wind production and output cuts in coal. generation extends through the year.

Overall electrical energy generated by Europe's wind farms was just. 4% less than by the continent's coal plants in 2024, at 616. terawatt hours (TWh) versus 641 TWh, according to data from. energy think tank Cinder.

Compared to the year before, coal generation was 7% lower in. 2024 while wind generation was 3% higher, and if those output. modifications are duplicated in 2025 then Europe's wind electricity. production will surpass coal production by around 6% in 2025.

Greater full-year generation by wind farms over coal plants. would mark the first time a single source of renewable energy. surpassed coal-fired electricity output in any significant region, and. would be a key energy transition milestone.

NARROWING THE GAP

The 25 TWh shortage in wind generation compared to. coal-fired generation in 2024 is around half of the amount of. electrical power produced by Europe's wind farms every month,. according to Coal.

As a result, that output gap could easily be comprised over. the course of 2025 by a boost in regional wind generation. capability or by greater average wind speeds at turbine level, or. by some combination of both.

According to market group Wind Europe, local power. firms included 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind generation capacity in. 2024, bringing the area's overall wind capacity to around 287. GW.

That increase in generation footprint should allow the region's. wind farms to lift local electrical energy production to a record. in 2025, possibly to around 652 TWh if the 6% growth in. capacity yields an equal-sized increase in electrical energy output.

ESSENTIAL THREATS

That potential 652 TWh of wind electrical power output ought to be. enough to surpass regional coal generation in 2025, even if. coal-fired output holds flat this year from 2024's levels.

But if coal-fired output in 2025 decreases by the very same degree. as it carried out in 2024 - by 7% - then wind generation might go beyond. coal-fired generation by close to 10%, and mark a major turning. point in regional energy transition efforts.

However, there are several threats facing Europe's power. sector this year that could still result in local coal power. remaining above local wind output.

The primary possible disruptive aspect is the supply of. natural gas, which looks set to contract once again in 2025 after. pipeline streams from Russia to certain European markets dropped. from in 2015's levels.

Gas is the region's main power source, so decreased. gas products this year might require Europe's utilities to boost. coal use in order to balance out lower system generation from gas.

Just a 1% drop in natural gas-fired electrical energy generation. would need power companies to produce around 10 TWh more. electrical energy from other sources.

And if coal-fired plants are the primary ways of offsetting. that lower gas-fired output, then regional coal-fired production. might jump back above 650 TWh for the year, and possibly. remain above wind output in 2025.

Another key risk is a prolonged run of below-normal wind. speeds across Europe's wind farms.

In 2024, Europe's monthly wind electrical power totals dropped. listed below the year-before total on five occasions, even with the. rise in total generation capacity last year.

These year-over-year generation drops came not just during. the summertime - when wind speeds tend to strike their annual lows -. but also throughout October and November when autumnal winds. typically pick up and boost wind electricity output.

The low wind speed issue was particularly acute in Germany. - the region's leading wind manufacturer - and remains a worry for power. firms so far in 2025.

The most recent German wind generation forecasts by LSEG call for. wind output to remain below the long-lasting average for the next. week or two, however then climb back above regular towards the end of. the month.

Further spells of low wind speeds throughout the year could. curtail overall wind generation in 2025.

An additional danger is the area's level of industrial. activity, which has been subdued because 2022 due to above-normal. energy costs and weak consumer demand.

Continued weak point among smokestack plants and factories. should keep overall coal use in power generation under pressure,. and potentially set off additional cuts to coal usage in Europe.

However, a synchronized upturn in Europe's commercial. activity would set off an increase in general energy intake,. which would result in greater output from all source of power as. power suppliers try to stay up to date with demand.

Naturally, higher total wind output might assist provide much. of the extra electrical energy required, and assist to speed up the. regional power sector pivot far from contaminating fuels.

However coal will likely remain a crucial back-up fuel and could. take pleasure in a renewal in usage if wind production ends up being stymied. through much of 2025.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a market. expert .

(source: Reuters)