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Asia spot prices rise on colder weather in Europe and Russian strikes against Ukraine

The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), which is a liquefied form of natural gas, rose this week for the first gain in almost a month. This was due to colder weather than expected in Europe, and also because Russians struck Ukrainian gas infrastructure in advance of winter.

Average LNG price for delivery to Northeast Asia in November Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $11.00, up from $10.60/mmBtu in the previous week.

Estimated price for December delivery is $11.20/mmBtu.

Siamak Adibi is the director of gas and LNG supply analysis at FGE. Europe experienced a cooler October with some unusual cold spells.

He said that Europe's gas stock buildup had slowed in recent days while the send-outs of regassification stations have remained high.

The Asian market remains weak. The seasonality of LNG demand is also affecting other markets, such as the Middle East and Latin America. "Europe remains the key to shaping market sentiment in this winter."

In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights set its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker benchmark price for cargoes to be delivered in November ex-ship at $10.322/mmBtu. This is a $0.63/mmBtu reduction from the November price at Dutch TTF hub.

Spark Commodities estimated the price to be $10.330/mmBtu. Argus set it at $10.36/mmBtu.

Aly Blakeway is the manager of Atlantic LNG for S&P Global Commodity Insights. She said that due to the colder temperatures and the recent Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has knocked down around 30% of Ukrainian natural gas production, the withdrawals from European infrastructure began in October.

Blakeway said that Europe would need to increase its bids to get more LNG shipped by water over the winter, as storages are over 11% less than they were at this time last season.

Prices may be further supported by the anticipated pull of Central and Eastern Europe as Europe tries to meet the demand for winter with lower inventories.

Alex Froley is a senior LNG analyst with ICIS. He said that the drop in Chinese demand in September, and a weaker than expected appetite in Egypt, could help offset extra LNG requirements from colder weather across Europe.

Max Glen-Doepel, Spark Commodities analyst, says that the U.S. Front-Month Arbitrage to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope still only narrowly encourages U.S. cargoes delivered to Europe.

He added that the rates for LNG freight in the Atlantic fell to $22,000/day last Friday while rates in Pacific dropped to $24,000/day.

(source: Reuters)