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Maguire: Five energy transition mistakes that are utterly infuriating

Most of the key technologies are now working. Solar panels do work. The wind turbines also work. Batteries work. Batteries work. Electric buses also work. Hydrogen electrolysers work too.

It's bad news that governments, utilities, and companies all over the world are constantly coming up with new creative ways to prevent these technologies from delivering on their promises.

The biggest obstacles to a?transition are no longer science-based. They are increasingly administrative, logistical, and political.

Humanity has spent many years perfecting shiny green hardware, but neglected the boring supporting infrastructure.

This results in a growing catalogue of costly own goals.

Here are five of most irritating.

FUMBLE 2:?THE BUS PRIOR TO THE PLUG

Ireland has produced a defining image for the modern energy transformation: rows of brand new electric buses sitting in storage yards, because there aren't enough charging stations ready to put them in service.

More than 130 battery electric buses were delivered and manufactured more than two-years ago, but the charging infrastructure in depots was behind schedule, so authorities had to continue using diesel buses, while the electric fleet sat idle. In addition to the estimated EUR500,000 per bus, millions have been spent in storage and maintenance for scores of green buses that are still unused.

Why it infuriates

The busse themselves were supposed to be the difficult part.

The installation of chargers should be relatively straightforward.

Planners instead managed to get the vehicles without ensuring that there was a charging system.

Infrastructure first and procurement second.

Energy transition is increasingly dependent on the right sequencing, not necessarily on new technologies.

FUMBLE: THE STRANDED STATIONS If Ireland’s buses are a failure of local planning, India shows the problem on a truly industrial scale.

India is one of the fastest growing renewable energy markets in the world. Transmission construction has not kept pace with the growth.

Industry groups have warned of the stranding of more than 50 gigawatts in renewable energy projects due to a combination between transmission delays, regulatory bottlenecks, and missed power supply agreements. Unfinished transmission infrastructure has delayed project commissioning in major renewable hubs like Rajasthan and Gujarat.

These numbers are astounding. The numbers are staggering.

Why it infuriates

Solar panels have been a hot topic for the past two decades.

Transmission lines, permits, and paperwork are now the main constraints.

The solar farms were delivered on time. The wires didn't.

Every renewable energy story becomes a transmission tale eventually.

New power lines are built at the pace of local permits.

DUTCH GRIDLOCKS Few countries have embraced electrification as enthusiastically as The Netherlands.

With remarkable speed, the Dutch promoted electric cars, heat pumps and cleaner industrial process. Unfortunately, the demand for electricity grew faster than grid capacity. There is severe congestion in some parts of the grid, and businesses and housing projects are increasingly on "waiting lists" for electricity connections.

The grid is unable to accommodate several projects, causing delays.

Why it infuriates

It wasn't due to climate skeptics, fossil-fuel lobbyists or technological flaws. This was due to success.

The country was so successful in encouraging electrification, that the network could not keep up.

Before solving the extension cord, the Dutch first solved the demand-side of the energy transformation.

The grid is not an optional extra. Electricity grids are fundamental to all other strategies of decarbonisation.

FUMBLE #4: THE HYDROGEN MONIE PIT Over the last five years, no clean-energy concept received more attention than green hydrogen.

This is why the Whyalla project in Australia is such a cautionary story.

South Australia created a dedicated Office of Hydrogen Power, and committed almost A$600,000,000 ($421,000,000) to a flagship project centered on Whyalla.

The project was marketed as a demonstration of the role hydrogen plays in industrial decarbonisation and power generation.

The venture was ultimately shattered by cost pressures, market challenges and the crisis at the Whyalla Steelworks.

The project was abandoned, the Hydrogen Office dissolved and later auditors reported hundreds of millions in spending. This included substantial asset writedowns related to preliminary project work.

Why it infuriates

It was more than a project that had been delayed. This was a good reminder that enthusiasm is not the same as economics. Hydrogen was the most popular conference presentation for energy transition, but PowerPoint slides are not known to generate commercial returns.

Pilot projects are needed.

Riskier are bets that are placed in advance of the market, customer and economic conditions being fully established.

FUMBLE #5: CALIFORNIA’S SOLAR GLUT California provides an unusual example where failure is followed by success.

The state has been pushing aggressively to expand solar generation for years. It was a success. It was so successful that the grid is struggling to absorb the entire electricity produced at certain times.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), California has curtailed approximately 3 terawatt-hours (TWh) in wind and solar production?in each year of the last two. This is the same amount of electricity that roughly 500,000 Californian homes consume annually.

Solar was responsible for the majority of these reductions. The oversupply of electricity, congestion and operational constraints are also contributing to the increasing frequency of periods with negative prices.

Why it infuriates

California has worked to solve a problem that was causing it concern: the lack of solar energy.

Now, it is faced with a new problem: Too much solar power at the wrong times.

It is frustrating to build clean electricity plants only to turn them off when the grid can't use all of what they produce.

Installation of renewable energy is only half the battle. Storage, transmission and flexibility of electricity demand become equally important.

The COMMON THREAD

The five examples below span three continents, and include different technologies, governments, and market structures.

All of them share the same flaw.

The equipment is working. The planning is not working.

The focus of policymakers has been on the obvious symbols of the transition - buses, solar farms and hydrogen plants, and electric vehicles - while ignoring the less glamorous technologies that make these assets useful.

Each electric bus must have a charger.

A transmission line is required for every wind farm.

Each hydrogen project?requires an end-user.

A grid that can support energy transitions is essential.

It is encouraging to know that most of these mistakes are easily fixable.

It's worrying that we keep learning the same thing over and over: boring things matter most in energy.

And while nobody ever built a multi-trillion-dollar industrial revolution without making some costly mistakes, it would be nice if the next generation of green fumbles involved fewer own goals.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)