Venezuelan oil exports plunge sharply following US tanker seizure, as only Chevron vessels sail - data sources

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• Sources say that companies are scrambling to acquire ships and assemble operations for the transfer of Venezuelan oil.

  Four sources familiar with these operations have said that oil companies looking to export Venezuelan crude to America after the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, are in a hurry to find tankers. They also want to put in place operations to safely transfer crude from vessels to Venezuelan ports. Sources say that trading houses and oil companies such as Vitol, Trafigura and Chevron are competing to get deals with the U.S. Government to export Venezuelan crude oil. This is after President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela was set to deliver up to 50 million barrels sanctioned oil from Venezuela to the United States. Trafigura told the White House in a Friday meeting that the first vessel would be loaded in the following week. Venezuela, which has been under a U.S. Blockade for the past few months, has stored oil in tankers. Its storage tanks have also nearly reached capacity. The oil-holding vessels are under sanctions, old and poorly maintained. Sources said that other vessels are unable to make direct contact with ships sanctioned due to insurance and liability requirements. The tanks onshore have not been maintained in years and pose a risk to parties attempting to load the oil. Three sources said that Maersk Tankers, a shipping company, is looking to expand its ship-to-ship transfers in Venezuela. Maersk Tankers could replicate the ship-to-shore-to-ship logistics it ?has used before in Amuay Bay in Venezuela, one source said. Maersk has already established operations in Aruba and Curacao. These islands are frequently used for the transfer of Venezuelan oil. Transfers are also possible at Aruba and U.S. port, but they are much more expensive. Another shipping source stated that the transfer operations would be further complicated by the lack of smaller vessels that can transport oil from storage vessels to the piers where it can be transferred onto another ship. Two sources claim that potential clients are contacting AET to expand its operations. The firm had previously been involved in cargoes from Venezuela before U.S. Sanctions were imposed against the country. AET stated in a press release that "it is not currently working with anyone to call, tranship or load Venezuelan cargo directly or indirectly." AET said in a statement that it "is not currently working with any party to call, tranship, load or discharge Venezuelan cargo directly or indirectly." Maersk Tankers & Chevron didn't immediately respond to comments. Sources said that while supply could reach 500,000 barrels of oil per day, which Venezuela exported to the U.S. prior to sanctions, and would "drain" accumulated stocks in 90-120days, it would be difficult to achieve this goal if oil is taken from both tankers and storage onshore, they added. Companies are also fiercely competing for loading slots in Venezuela's main Jose terminal where speed and capacity are limited. Sources claim that Chevron is aggressively competing to maintain its privileged position in Venezuela, as well as lining up their vessel fleet. An industry source in Venezuela reported that oil companies such as Vitol, Trafigura and Chevron are already sourcing the much-needed naphtha. An industry source in Venezuela said that naphtha was typically blended with heavy Venezuelan crude oil to reduce its density and make it easier for refineries to process and transport.

• US approves sale of equipment and services for Peruvian Naval Base

  The U.S. State Department approved the sale of equipment and services worth $1.5 billion to Peru to help the country move its main naval base from Callao to a nearby seaport. The Peruvian Government plans to relocate the naval base in Callao on the coast, just a few kilometers west of Lima. This will allow the expansion of Peru's largest commercial port, Callao. It is a rival to the Chinese mega-port Chancay located 80 km north of Lima. The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency issued a statement about the proposal. It said that the "proposed sales will contribute to the United States' foreign policy objectives by helping 'to improve security of an important South American partner who promotes political stability and economic progress in South America." The agency confirmed it had sent the required proposal to Congress informing them of this possible sale. Pentagon officials said that the Pentagon will select principal contractors at a future date, most likely by a competitive process. Callao's port is Peru's most important?commercial port. It is operated by two separate companies, APM Terminals (on the north) and DP World Callao (on the south). Callao began offering direct shipping routes to China and South Korea in November. Analysts say that Callao will compete with Chancay for Asian cargo as infrastructure investments increase along Peru's Pacific Coast. The Cosco Shipping Ports port in 'Chancay will begin operating in November 2024. The port can accommodate large vessels and offers direct trips between South America, Asia and Europe. China is Peru’s main trading partner. The Peruvian defense ministry has not responded to an email sent out of regular working hours. (Reporting from Toronto by Ryan Patrick Jones and Marco Aquino; editing by Christian Schmollinger).

• Vladimirov: ROI-Venezuela is the first step in a geoeconomic reset of LatAm

  The removal of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela could be the start of a larger U.S. effort to realign Latin America in a geoeconomical sense, thus limiting Russia's and China's ability to use the Western Hemisphere as a pressure-point on global commodity markets. Central America may be the next domino in the fall. This region has a lot of shipping lanes, and is close to checkpoints. It's a great place for both licit and illegal commerce. The Panama Canal handles approximately 40% of U.S. containers and 5% of world trade. Other transit routes include the Caribbean Sea and ports on the west coast in Mexico, Guatemala and Costa Rica, used to ship goods to Asia. Russia has already benefited from this geography by a growing "shadow Fleet" of aging vessels that are operated outside the Western Insurance System. These vessels help move crude and refined products that are subject to Western sanctions through the Caribbean corridor, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico. This undermines U.S., European, and other efforts to stop Moscow's financing of the war in Ukraine. The region is an important node in the Kremlin’s global financial network. Some of the largest Russian firms use offshore financial hubs to conduct international business. According to the Center for the Study of Democracies, offshore shell companies in the Caribbean control assets worth close to $70 billion. China is still the dominant economic force in Latin America. China's Belt and Road investment, technology transfer and financing dwarf Russia and, increasingly, the U.S. 's outlays. China has increased its engagement in the region through tariff reductions and industry agreements, positioning it as a major provider of technology and industrial inputs. It also provides consumer goods, transportation equipment and consumer products. Moscow and Beijing used political ties, long-term contracts and strategic investments to gain a foothold in the Americas. According to Inter-American Dialogue, Chinese development loans to Latin America will reach more than $120 Billion by the end 2023. Even though U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is estimated to be worth $1.4 trillion by the year 2023 in Latin America, dwarfs the combined $610 billion of Russian and Chinese capital in the area, The strategic bilateral agreements that Latin American countries signed with Moscow or Beijing have severely limited the opportunities for U.S. companies and European firms to enter markets which will determine the future trajectory of the Western Hemisphere. The "Donroe Doctrine", the Trump administration's plan to?cement its dominance in this region, is a move that aims to change this. Venezuela, with its largest oil reserves in the world and additional support from Moscow, has supported regimes from Cuba to Nicaragua for decades. Venezuela and Russia, for example, cover over 60% of Cuba's petroleum consumption at very low costs. Energy supply has become a geopolitical tool because of this dependence. Cuba already suffers from chronic energy shortages. If the U.S. were to block Venezuelan and Russian supply, it could lead to economic chaos. The immediate impact on commodities markets would be indirect. A tighter scrutiny of Caribbean shipping and insurance, as well as reflagging (or changing the country of registration of a vessel) is likely to increase costs for traders. It may also restrict the flow of sanctioned oil. In this scenario it is likely that the U.S. Gulf Coast will be more reliant on its refineries in order to replace lost supplies from Russia and Venezuela. If the U.S. Southern Command suppresses also the shadow fleet along South America's Atlantic coast, it will further push Russia back, who recently became Brazil's largest supplier of petroleum products. This could allow U.S. refiners a chance to reclaim the traditional role of swing supplier in the region. The reintegration into the global oil markets under U.S. management would also directly affect the market share of oil exporters like Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia. The collapse of the Venezuelan oil industry has benefited all three countries, increasing their regional sales over the last decade. BROADER GEOECONOMIC REALIGNMENT The U.S.'s move to reclaim the economic sphere of its influence in the Western Hemisphere could open up the door for more American investment, especially in strategic areas such as nuclear power, port and road infrastructure and the development of critical raw materials in the region. These sectors are currently dominated, amongst others, by Chinese and Russian firms in Bolivia, Brazil Argentina, Venezuela Peru and Chile. The U.S. strategy is not without risks. U.S. coercive action could disrupt regional trade and investments, strain relationships with Latin American governments, and in some cases accelerate the shift towards China. The Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela could help reverse the growing geoeconomic alignment of the region with Russia and China. But only if the coercion matched by credible economic incentives to encourage countries to change course. This month's events will have far-reaching implications that go beyond the oil markets. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.

• US seeks warrants for the seizure of dozens more Venezuelan-linked oil tanks, sources claim

  Four sources said that the U.S. government has filed court warrants for the seizure of dozens of more tankers connected to the Venezuelan trade. Washington is consolidating control over oil shipments into and out of this 'South American country. In recent weeks, the U.S. Coast Guard and military seized five vessels that either carried Venezuelan oil in international waters or had done so previously. The seizure was part of Washington’s campaign to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power, which culminated with U.S. troops capturing him on Jan. 3. The administration of Donald Trump has stated that it intends to continue controlling Venezuela's oil reserves indefinitely, as it attempts to?rebuild the country's dilapidated petroleum industry. In December, Trump implemented a blockade on tankers sanctioned for shipping Venezuelan crude oil. This brought the exports to a near-standstill. This week, under U.S. oversight, shipments resumed. CONFISCATIONS CAN BE GENERATED BY ACTIONS Sources said that the U.S. Government has filed civil forfeiture cases in district courts, mostly in Washington, D.C., which allows the seizure and confiscation oil cargoes, and ships, involved in the trade. The sources declined to identify themselves due to the sensitive nature of the issue. Sources said that it is not possible to know the exact number of seizure orders the U.S. filed and how many they have already received because the legal orders and filings are not public. They added that dozens of seizure warrants had been filed. The Department of Justice didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. The vessels intercepted so far were either subject to U.S. sanction or part of an unregulated "shadow fleet" that hid their origins in order to transport oil from major sanctioned producers such as Iran, Russia and Venezuela. Many tankers are currently at sea, either carrying Venezuelan crude oil to China's top buyer or have done so in the past. The U.S. imposed sanctions against many of these vessels because they facilitate oil trade with Venezuela or Iran. SEIZURES ARE NOW OFFICIALLY SUSPENDED SINCE FRIDAY. SOURCES Sources said that the United States has halted its actions to seize ships since Friday. They said that the United States could resume its action against vessels and cargoes it has not authorized. Sean Parnell, Pentagon?spokesperson, said Friday that the Department of Defense, along with other U.S. government agencies, will "hunt down and intercept ALL dark fleet ships transporting Venezuelan crude oil at a time and place we choose". In recent seizures, the United States targeted both vessels and cargoes. Shipping industry sources say that this is an increase from previous seizures between 2020 and 2023 of Iranian?cargoes. In the earlier cases, U.S. authorities confiscated only the oil cargo and not the vessel. U.S. attorney general Pam Bondi stated on social media that the Department of Justice "monitored several other vessels" for similar enforcement actions. This was after the Bella-1, a tanker seized by the U.S. Military on January 7th. The vessel was empty and had no cargo. It was the first time since recent times that the U.S. Navy has seized an American-flagged ship. Russia, as Venezuela, depends on the shadow fleet for oil that is subject to sanctions. The Russian Foreign Ministry called the U.S. military's action "an illegal use of force," adding that sanctions imposed by the U.S. were "without legal basis." Reporting by Jonathan Saul, Andrew Goudsward and Rod Nickel; Editing by Simon Webb & Rod Nickel

• Canadian oil tycoon suggests US aid in Venezuela's oil revolution

  The Canadian oil tycoon, who is the head of one of North America’s fastest growing?oil firms, wants his country to offer its expertise in heavy-oil to the United States to help rebuild Venezuela’s?oil sector. Adam Waterous is one of Canada's most active oil industry dealmakers, and executive chair of Strathcona Resources. His comments show a surprising willingness for him to support Donald Trump, despite the trade war he has with Canada, and the possibility that Venezuelan crude could displace some Canadian petroleum on the U.S. oil market. Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world. It is also the world's top producer of heavy oil that is similar to Venezuelan crude, which it extracts from its oil sands. Waterous said Canada is uniquely qualified to help Venezuela because of its decades of experience in extracting crude oil from the oil sands. It also has something to offer Trump before expected trilateral trade negotiations later this year. Waterous stated in an interview that "we are better positioned than any other country to help rebuild." "I'd expect, but don't really know, that a request for assistance would be welcomed." Waterous stated that Strathcona does not intend to invest in Venezuela. Waterous said that Canada could help the United States by helping rebuild Venezuela's petroleum industry at a time where Trump's trade policies have strained relations. STRATHCONA IS WILLING TO SEND A TECHNICAL TEAMS Trump invited U.S. oil executives to the White House last week to discuss Venezuela. The event was not attended by any Canadian companies. "I wasn't invited and it is not the Canadian industry's job to call Donald Trump and ask, "Do you want some assistance?" Waterous added, "I do believe there is an opportunity." Waterous, who studied at Harvard University and has U.S. connections through Henry Hager (son-in law of former President George W. Bush), who is Strathcona’s managing director, said that he would immediately assemble a team from his firm to go to Venezuela when asked. He said, "I am sure that no heavy oil company would refuse to do so." Strathcona, Canada's largest oil producer was built by Waterous, a former banker and founder of the private equity firm Waterous Energy Fund. The company extracts heavy oil using steam-assisted technologies in Cold Lake, Alberta and Lloydminster. He is known for his aggressive deal-making Waterous, a billionaire with a fiery personality, shook Canada's oil patch by taking on Cenovus in a heated battle for MEG Energy. Waterous, who was unsuccessful in his attempt to purchase MEG, announced that he would more than double Strathcona’s production by 2035 to 300,000 BPD -- a rate which would be far greater than any of Strathcona’s competitors. TRADE REVIEW PENDING This year, the Canada-United States Mexico Agreement, which shielded Canada's exports against U.S. Tariffs, will be reviewed jointly. Some investors have suggested that an increase in Venezuelan crude oil flowing to the United States may weaken Canada’s leverage. Mark Carney, the Canadian Prime Minister, raised the possibility of reviving a Keystone XL The oil pipeline from Alberta into the United States was discussed during a meeting earlier this year with President Trump as he sought to find a solution to the painful U.S. Tariffs On steel, autos and many other products. Waterous said Canada now should?try to utilize its heavy crude expertise. He said that the long-term risks of the U.S. purchasing Venezuelan crude increases Canada's need to diversify markets and build a new pipeline to the Pacific. Canada exports 90% of its crude oil to the U.S. but analysts say that a large increase in Venezuelan crude production could directly compete with Canadian barrels refined along the U.S. Gulf Coast. A spokesperson from Canada's Natural Resources Ministry said that the ministry has not offered Trump any help in Venezuela's oil industry. Last week, the discount between heavy Canadian crude and U.S. crude widened to 14%. Meanwhile, shares of Strathcona as well as other Canadian heavy oil producers dropped on investor concerns about the revival of Venezuela's petroleum sector. (Reporting and editing by Caroline Stauffer in Calgary, Rod Nickel and Nick Zieminski.)

• Delta places Boeing 787 in order to forecast earnings growth on premium travel demand

  Delta Air Lines, on Tuesday, forecast a 20% increase in earnings by 2026, citing strong corporate and consumer demand, as well as rising sales for premium travel. The airline also announced that it had agreed to purchase 30 Boeing 787-10 aircraft to bolster its long-haul fleet. The shares of the airline fell by nearly 5% during premarket trading, as the forecasts were largely "below" estimates. As lower-income consumers are under pressure due to inflation and a weaker purchasing power, the airline is benefiting from a resilient demand from higher-income travelers. This divergence was apparent in the December quarter when the overall passenger revenue increased by just 1%. However, this masked a growing gap within the cabin. The revenue for main-cabin tickets fell by 7% compared to a year ago, but revenue from premium products grew by 9%. Delta CEO Ed Bastian stated that the majority of Delta's seat expansion is planned for premium products. The main cabin will see little growth. The airline's long term strategy is reinforced by the fact that new aircraft are configured with more premium seats. Bastian said that the outlook was "upbeat," noting the record bookings at the beginning of the year. However, the airline maintains a range in its forecast because of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and policy-related uncertainties. Delta, based in Atlanta, expects a full-year adjusted earnings per share between $6.50 and $7.50 as well as free cash flow between $3 billion and $4 billion. Delta expects revenue growth between 5% and 7% for the March quarter. It also forecasts adjusted earnings per share of $0.50-$0.90. LSEG surveyed analysts who expect earnings per share of $7.25 for the year, and $0.72 for each quarter. INTERNATIONAL RECOVERY - UNVEIL Bastian stated that the international demand is still strong, despite markets like Canada and China not yet fully recovering. Capacity to China remains well below pre-pandemic levels. He said that the World Cup soccer tournament could be a catalyst for inbound travel and ease a blockage in international demand. In 2025, the airline had its highest ever level of premium revenue and diversification. Nearly 60% of its total revenue came from premium cabins and loyalty programs, as well as other non-ticket revenue sources such as its long-standing relationship with American Express. Bastian, a Delta spokesperson, told reporters that Delta's customers prioritize travel and high-quality experiences. The disparity in consumer spending has also changed the shape of the U.S. aviation industry. Low-cost and Ultra-low-cost Carriers, who rely heavily upon price-sensitive travellers, have struggled with weak profitability and excess capacities, leading to consolidation and retrenchment. Allegiant announced plans to purchase Sun Country Airlines while Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. Bastian stated that "the lower-end consumers are struggling." We are fortunate to not live in that area. BOEING ORDER DIFFERSIFIES LONG HAUL FLEET Delta's adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.55 per share barely beat analyst's expectations. However, results were affected by the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, which caused tens and thousands of flight disruptions, and reduced quarterly profits by about $200 million. In 2025, the airlines also suffered a drop in demand due to the sweeping U.S. Tariffs that eroded consumer confidence. Delta's outlook for 2026 assumes that these disruptions won't be repeated. Delta, as part of its long-term fleet plan, will purchase 30 Boeing 787-10 widebody planes, with an option for another 30, and deliveries are expected to begin in 2031. Delta will have a brand-new aircraft with the 787-10. Bastian explained that the aircraft was chosen for its efficiency and flexibility in mid-range international routes. This includes those across the Atlantic, to South America and other destinations where ultra-long range capability is not needed. He said that the 787-10 was cheaper to operate than larger widebodies like the Airbus A350 on many missions. Delta Airlines has been a strong proponent of Airbus for the last 15 years. Its fleet is centered around the A220, A320, and A350 narrowbody aircraft, as well as its flagship A330 widebody. Bastian explained that the Boeing order was a deliberate attempt to diversify the suppliers and reduce reliance on one manufacturer, as the airline expanded internationally. He said that it was difficult to run a business if the airline relied on a single supplier. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh)

• Delta's Boeing 787 order is a bet on the premium travel market and its positive outlook.

  Delta Air Lines, which has a long-haul fleet, forecast a 20% increase in earnings by 2026. It cited strong corporate and consumer demand, as well as rising sales. As lower-income customers are under pressure due to 'inflation' and a weaker purchasing power, the airline is benefiting from a resilient demand from higher-income travellers. This divergence was apparent in the December quarter when the overall passenger revenue increased by just 1%. However, this masked a growing gap within the cabin. The revenue for main-cabin tickets fell by 7% compared to a year ago, but revenue from premium products grew by 9%. Delta CEO Ed Bastian stated that the majority of Delta's seat expansion is planned for premium products. The main cabin will see little growth. The airline's strategy is reinforced by the fact that new aircraft are equipped with more premium seats. Bastian described the outlook for the airline as "upbeat" pointing out record booking trends at the beginning of the year. However, the airline maintains a range in its forecast because of ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and policy-related uncertainties. Atlanta-based Delta Airlines expects adjusted earnings per share for 2026 to be between $6.50 and $7.50, with free cash flow between $3 billion and $4 billion. Delta expects revenue growth between 5% and 7% for the quarter ending March, with adjusted earnings per share ranging from $0.50 to $0.90. LSEG surveyed analysts who expect earnings per share of $7.25 for the year, and $0.72 for each quarter. International Recovery Uneven Bastian stated that the international demand is still strong, even though some markets, such as Canada and China, have not recovered fully. Capacity to China remains well below levels before the pandemic. He said that the World Cup soccer tournament, which is coming up in a few months' time, could unlock international travel and ease a blockage. The airline ended 2025 having the highest premium and diverse revenue of its history. Nearly 60% of its total revenue came from premium cabins and loyalty programs, as well as other non-ticket revenue sources such as its long-standing relationship with American Express. Bastian, a Delta spokesperson, told reporters that Delta's customers prioritize quality travel experiences and continue to value them. The imbalance of consumer spending has also changed the shape of the U.S. aviation industry. Low-cost and Ultra-low-cost Carriers, who rely heavily upon price-sensitive travellers, have struggled to maintain profitability due to excess capacity and weak profits, leading them into consolidation and retrenchment. Allegiant announced plans to purchase Sun Country Airlines while Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. Bastian stated that "the lower-end consumers are struggling." We are fortunate to not live in that area. BOEING ORDER DIFFERSIFIES LONG HAUL FLEET Delta's adjusted fourth-quarter earnings of $1.55 per share barely beat analyst's expectations. However, results were affected by the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, which caused tens and thousands of flight disruptions, and reduced quarterly profit by about $200 million. In?2025 airlines also suffered a drop in demand due to the sweeping U.S. Tariffs that eroded consumer confidence. Delta's outlook for 2026 assumes that these disruptions won't be repeated. Delta will purchase 30 Boeing 787-10 Widebody Aircraft as part of its fleet strategy. It has options to buy an additional 30 aircraft. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2031. Delta will be introducing a new aircraft with the 787-10. Bastian stated that the aircraft was chosen for its efficiency and flexibility in mid-range international routes. This includes across the Atlantic, to South America and other destinations where ultra-long range capability isn't required. He said that the 787-10 was cheaper to operate than larger widebodies like the Airbus A350 on many missions. Delta Airlines has been a strong Airbus supporter for the last 15 years. Its fleet is based on Airbus' A220, A320, and A350 narrowbody aircraft, as well as its flagship A330 widebody. Bastian explained that the Boeing order was a deliberate attempt to diversify the suppliers and reduce reliance on one manufacturer, as the airline expanded internationally. He said that it was difficult to run a business if the airline relied on a single supplier. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh)

• Cuban oil is cut off by Trump as the clock ticks.

  Cubans brace for impact, after U.S. president Donald Trump pledged to cut off the lifeline of Venezuelan crude oil reaching Cuba. This will create a siege situation for an island that is already suffering from crippling blackouts. Venezuela, the island's former top supplier, has not sent crude oil or fuel to Cuba in about a week, according to data from the state-owned company PDVSA and documents internal to the company. Cargoes were falling off because of a U.S. Blockade, even before the U.S. captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro early in January. The last cargo to be refined on the island arrived from PDVSA’s Jose port mid-December, on a tanker with its transponder turned off and carrying 600,000 barrels Venezuelan crude. The data and documents revealed that in 2025, Venezuela would be Cuba's biggest oil supplier, with 26 500 barrels of oil per day (bpd), which is roughly one-third of the island's needs. Mexico was second with 5,000 bpd. Jorge Pinon is an energy researcher at the University of Texas at Austin. He said, "I don't think there's any way for Cuba to survive in the coming months without receiving oil from Venezuela." The situation is about to become catastrophic. Trump has not hidden his belief that the recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela will push Cuba to the edge. But in recent days, he has stepped up the pressure on the communist island. He urged the neighboring country on Sunday to reach a deal before it's too late. Cuban residents are now asking themselves how long the communist government and President Miguel Diaz-Canel can survive a drastic reduction in oil imports. They already struggle to get food, medicine, and fuel. Victor Romero of Havana, 75 years old and a former state employee, said: "It is very stressful. We don't know the decision that the Cuban Government will make or the actions taken by the United States Government." Diaz-Canel has made it clear that his government will not back down from U.S. threats. He said, "Nobody tells me what to do," after Trump promised to cut off Venezuelan oil. "Cuba...is prepared to defend its homeland until the very last drop of blood." In far-flung provinces that have little economic output, rural Cuba already looks like a caricature. In many villages, and even urban areas, bicycles and horse-drawn carriages are used for transportation. Internet is often unreliable, if at all. And electricity is very fleeting. There are more hours with no power than there are with it. Deyanira Gonzalez is a 57 year old housewife living in the countryside of Havana. She says she prepares her breakfast coffee and lunch for her children over charcoal because electricity is spotty, and liquefied natural gas, while available, can be expensive or unavailable. What will happen next? "If Donald Trump does not allow fuel into Cuba, we will be in darkness with our children suffering," she said. Cuba's capital Havana is yet to feel the impact of Venezuela's falling fuel cargoes. This observation is backed up by Cuba's daily generation gap statistics. Some?city residents have reported that the blackouts in January are less frequent, due to a decrease in power demand from a peak reached in December. The rationing of gasoline and diesel at the pumps, in 'the peso currency is still in place. FEW OPTIONS No public information is available about the amount of oil Cuba might have in reserve. Cuba's allies may not be willing to risk Trump retribution to bail out Cuba. Pinon, an energy expert, said: "We have not seen any support whatsoever, from Cuba's political partners, who are also oil exporters, such as Angola Algeria Brazil." "Nobody is coming to Cuba’s aid except for maybe Mexico in a limited amount and also Russia in a limited amount." A tanker bound from Mexico, the Ocean Mariner, arrived in Havana on Friday, carrying some 85,000 barrels ?of fuel from the state company Pemex's terminal of Pajaritos/Coatzacoalcos, according to a witness and ship tracking data. Mexico's contribution is not enough to maintain the electricity on the island with its 10 million residents, even though it's a fraction the Venezuelan exports. This concern is shared by many Cubans. Ivet Rodriguez is a 39-year old entrepreneur from Havana. She said, "It's that uncertainty of not being able to predict what will happen." "I try to not even think about this." Reporting by Dave Sherwood from Havana, and Marianna Pararaga from Houston; additional reporting by Mario Fuentes, Anett Rios and Christian Plumb. Editing by Christian Plumb & Alistair Bell.

• CANADA-CRUDE-Discount on Western Canada Select narrows

  On Monday, the discount between West Texas Intermediate and North American benchmark Western Canada Select?futures was reduced. WCS for February deliveries in Hardisty, Alberta settled at $14.35 per barrel below the U.S. benchmark WTI according to brokerage CalRock. This compares with $14.80 per barrel on Friday. Since the capture by the U.S. of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the discount on 2026 WCS barrels at Hardisty's forward curve has increased more than $2 per barrel. The market is looking for potential increases in Venezuelan barrels that could compete with Canadian heavy oil of similar quality in the U.S. Gulf Coast in the long term. Some analysts believe the market has overreacted because it will be years before Venezuela's oil production reaches current levels. TD 'Cowen stated that Canada had other factors in its favor which could help 'prop up WCS Prices if they are under pressure. These include low oil inventories within the province of Alberta and a depleted U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Oil prices rose and?settled on Monday at seven-week-highs amid fears that Iran's oil exports may decline as the sanctioned OPEC country cracks down against anti-government protests. (Reporting and editing by Sahal Muhammad in Calgary, Amanda Stephenson is based in Calgary)

• First Venezuelan oil deals signed by US companies are with trading houses, not US majors

  Oil trading companies have a clear advantage over U.S. energy giants who are wary of legal and credit risks. They also get to take advantage of a lucrative business opportunity with Venezuela, the country that has the largest crude reserves in the world. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that U.S. oil majors will invest billions in Venezuela in order to rebuild its deteriorated oil sector after the capture by America of President Nicolas Maduro in early January. Trump met with top oil executives at the White House Friday, as his administration outlines its long-term plan for raising $100 billion to increase Venezuelan oil production. The first companies to secure any business in the wake ?of the U.S. military ?action in Caracas, however, were Dutch-based trader Vitol and Singapore-headquartered peer Trafigura, rather than U.S. majors. Four industry sources who were familiar with the talks said that the U.S. Government chose the merchant houses as they are better equipped to get Venezuelan oil flowing again. Washington must first do this before it can start reconstruction, in order to ensure that the revenue generated by oil exports under U.S. oversight can be used to fund the interim government of Delcy Rodriquez in Caracas. White House official: "Securing and marketing initial barrels Venezuelan crude oil at record speeds was done to the benefit of both the American people and Venezuelans." Venezuela's revenue is derived from oil exports. It has been deprived of these proceeds for a little over a month as Trump increased pressure on Maduro. Washington and Caracas have finalized a $2 billion agreement to sell up 50 million barrels to U.S. refining companies and other buyers - oil which had been stuck in storage tanks and on ships in Venezuelan water due to the blockade. The White House official stated that it was important to facilitate the initial oil sales to ensure that funds would flow back to Venezuela to pay for daily services. A process has been put in place to maintain a steady flow of production and sales as well as refining?of Venezuelan crude oils. Richard Holtum, the chief executive of Trafigura, said that the company is preparing to load its first shipment this week. GLOBAL NETWORK ADDED APPEAL TO TRADERS Trading houses were in competition with Chevron to secure supply deals. Chevron, the only U.S. major oil company that operates in Venezuela as a joint venture partner with Venezuelan PDVSA state oil firm, is the sole U.S. oil giant. Chevron holds a license issued by U.S. authorities that exempts the company from sanctions imposed by the United States to cut off Maduro's oil revenue. Trafigura, a global shipping fleet, and logistics network are among the few companies capable of executing a deal this large and complex, Trafigura stated. Vitol has worked on complex transactions that require agile operations, logistics and finance for a long time. Three participants in the White House meetings said that the traders won the Venezuelan oil deals as well because they have a 'higher risk tolerance and more agility than the major publicly traded oil companies. One source said that legal teams and advisors had discouraged some of the biggest U.S. producers of oil from participating in the first oil shipments because Venezuelan creditors could seize the revenues. How can we guarantee that creditors won't resort to legal action, whether in the U.S. Three sources with knowledge of the situation said that the U.S. Government told trading companies they would protect them by controlling bank accounts tied to sales and shielding the proceeds from creditors. Trump acted quickly to accomplish this on Friday. The White House announced on Saturday that Trump issued an executive ordering blocking courts and creditors impounding the revenue from the sale Venezuelan oil in accounts controlled by the U.S. Treasury. Venezuela is in debt to foreign creditors for more than 150 billion dollars. Trump has asked the oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's industrial sector. ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil and others are still trying recover nearly $14 billion in relation to asset expropriations that occurred 20 years ago. INVEST AND REBUILD Trump and his team told oil companies that they must invest in the sector and rebuild it first before repaying any debt. Three shipping sources have said that U.S. companies selling oil would be less willing to accept the risk of compliance involved when they sell oil from tankers blacklisted by Washington because of their involvement in sanctioned trade. The shadow fleet of vessels that transport sanctioned oil is a large number of vessels with 'old' and 'outdated or unknown insurance arrangements and safety certificates, which are required to enter many ports. Two sources claim that they do not meet the strict chartering requirements set by the big U.S. Oil companies. One source stated that the U.S. oil majors may be reluctant to get more involved in short-term crude oil trading because of their investments in China. Majors have invested tens and tens billions in China. Beijing has condemned U.S. actions in Venezuela. China is one of Venezuela's biggest creditors. PDVSA has paid its debts with oil shipments. The majority of the $2 billion in oil that was to be finalized for shipment to Chinese refiners had been originally planned. Since the U.S. sanctions against Venezuela's main traders were imposed in 2020, Chinese independent refiners are the largest buyers of Venezuelan oil. The big U.S. Oil companies are hoping that the U.S. will lift its sanctions on the oil trade and Venezuela will adopt the legal framework which would encourage them to invest and work with Venezuelan entities. EXXON CEO CALLS VENEZUELA "UNINVESTABLE" Exxon CEO Darren Woods said Venezuela was "uninvestable" at the White House. He also stated that security guarantees were required and a hydrocarbon reform would be needed before Exxon returned to the country. Woods stated that Venezuela had twice taken Exxon assets. Trump said on Sunday that he could block Exxon's investment in Venezuela. He said, "I didn’t like Exxon’s response." Conoco CEO Ryan Lance stated at the same event that his company is the largest non-sovereign creditors, with approximately $12 billion in compensation pending for expropriation. Trump told Lance that the U.S. wouldn't look back on what was lost in the past. Two sources confirmed that under the new agreement, trading houses will also provide lighter oil to Venezuela to dilute heavy oil before export, as Venezuela needs it. On Saturday, sources in the oil industry said that Vitol was set to load its first cargo. Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov in London and Jonathan Saul, Marianna Pararaga and Arathy Sommesekhar, Sharaq Khan in New York, Jarrett Renshaw, Washington DC, and Sharaq Khan, New York; writing and editing by Liz Hampton, Diane Craft, Jason Neely, and Simon Webb.

• Wall Street Journal, January 12,

  These are the most popular stories from the Wall Street Journal. These?stories have not been verified and we cannot vouch for their accuracy. U.S. prosecutors have opened an investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for his testimony about the renovation of the building at the Federal Reserve Bank last summer. Allegiant Travel has reached a deal worth $1.1 billion to purchase Sun Country Airlines. This is despite the fact that budget airlines in the U.S. are facing stiff competition from their larger competitors. Walmart plans to expand drone deliveries to '150 more stores in the next year, with a goal of 'over 270 locations before late 2027. Google has released a toolkit for retailers to help them implement AI agents. The goal is to make it easier for brands to reach customers using the technology. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he might block Exxon Mobil's investment in Venezuela, after the CEO of the oil company called the country "uninvestable", during a White House meeting held last week. Senior officials from the U.S. administration will brief President Donald Trump on Tuesday about specific options for responding to protests in Iran.

• Four tankers, which had left Venezuela in "dark mode", are now back in its waters

  Four tankers, the majority of which were loaded, left Venezuela early in January in "dark mode" - that is, with their transponders turned off despite a "strict" U.S. blockade. According to the state company PDVSA, and the monitoring service TankerTrackers.com, the blockade is now in place. Last month, a flotilla consisting of at least three empty ships and a dozen vessels with cargo left Venezuelan waters. This was in apparent defiance to an embargo that President Donald Trump imposed on Venezuela since mid-December. The U.S. seized the?supertanker M Sophia with a Panamanian flag this week as it returned to the country. Another Aframax Tanker Olina, flying a Sao 'Tome and Principe flag, was also?intercepted, but was released to Venezuela Friday by state company PDVSA. Tankertrackers.com spotted three more vessels in Venezuelan waters on Friday night through satellite images. These were the Panama-flagged Merope and Cook Islands-flagged Min Hang, as well as Panama-flagged Thalia III. U.S. authorities had announced on Friday that Olina, formerly known as Minerva m, would be released. They said that the next step in the negotiations between Caracas, Washington and the U.S. for a $2 billion oil deal would be to begin organized crude exports. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, said that arrangements had been made for a supply of oil in a meeting with executives from top oil companies on Friday. Sources said that Vitol, Trafigura and other global trading houses received the first U.S. licensing to carry Venezuelan exports and to negotiate with Venezuela. Naphtha is also expected to be supplied to the OPEC nation, according to sources. Marianna Pararaga, Julia Symmes Cobb and Marianna Parraga contributed to this report.