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Japanese shippers await details on Hormuz reopening, mine clearance
Japanese shippers welcomed the U.S. - Iran peace 'agreement' on Monday, which will reopen Strait of Hormuz. However, they are waiting for more details of the agreement?and the clearance of mines before allowing their ships to pass the chokepoint. The association claims that 38 vessels with Japanese connections are still stranded on the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Israeli war against Iran, which began on 28 February, has largely halted shipping through the strait. This is the transit route of?roughly a five percent of the world’s oil and liquefied gas supply?alongside vital products such as aluminum and urea. The global oil price fell by?4% after U.S. president Donald Trump and Iran’s deputy foreign minister announced that they had reached an initial agreement to end the conflict and resume traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. A spokesperson from the Japanese Shipowners' Association stated on Monday that the group was happy with the peace accord, but wanted to "wait for more concrete details", which they expected to receive by June 19, the date the U.S. and Iran?pact will be signed in Switzerland. The spokesperson stated that there had been reports of mines being laid in the area. She added: "Given this situation, we can't just say, 'Right now, let's go,' based solely on the news about the agreement." Nippon Yusen is the largest shipper in Japan. It said that it hoped to return operations to normal as soon as possible. However, a spokesperson stated it was still too early to comment about the schedules of Japan-linked vessels stuck?in Gulf. He refused to say how many ships of the company remain in the Gulf.
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IFM Global offers a 'best and last' bid of $5.2 billion for Australia's Atlas Arteria
IFM Global Infrastructure Fund increased its bid to takeover 'Australia's Atlas Arteria a week ago, to A$7.40bn ($5.24bn). It called the revised offer its 'best and final proposal. IFM raised its offer for Atlas Arteria to A$5.10 from A$4.75. Atlas had rejected the previous bid a month earlier, calling it opportunistic. Atlas's bid price was announced at the end of April. The new offer represents a 17.8% increase. Atlas shares were up 0.4% to A$2.82 at 0015 GMT while the benchmark index rose 1.3%. The toll operator stated that a'report by an independent expert' also concluded the offer wasn't fair or reasonable. IFM's'statement' on Monday said that Atlas' independent directors' claims, 'that more value can be created by asset sales' are 'dishonest'.
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Manufacturers and unions warn that the UK is losing jobs to other countries due to high energy prices
A manufacturing group and a trade union warned that Britain risks losing?major industries due to high energy costs. They urged the government to do more to reduce?companies bills. In an industrial strategy announced a year earlier, Britain committed to reducing electricity costs in energy-intensive industries, by exempting these from certain green levies. Since then, the scheme has been expanded and retroactively applied. Industry group Make UK said a survey showed that more than half of its members had not seen any benefit from this strategy. A quarter of them had either moved their production overseas or were considering it. Stephen Phipson of?Make UK said that Britain faces deindustrialisation if manufacturers don't get relief from high prices. He called for the scheme to be extended?to all industries and?rolled-out more quickly. We cannot afford to delay our actions by political turmoil or further consultations. The Government must act immediately to save thousands of jobs in Britain. Keir starmer is facing discontent from his Labour legislators?after several U-turns. Some people are supporting Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham in the event that he faces a leadership challenge, if he returns this week to parliament after a special elections. Starmer is under pressure from competing demands - such as those relating to defence and welfare - due to the 'Iran War. Phipson stated that extending the scheme to all companies would cost PS3 billion (about $4 billion) per year and eliminate 2.5 million jobs. The Trades Union Congress, a trade union federation, backed the call for greater relief. General Secretary Paul Nowak said the scheme should expand to "protect jobs and maintain factories and plants operating."
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Bousso: Iran's fragile deal with oil offers relief, but there are still risks associated with the Hormuz pipeline.
Energy exporters and buyers will breathe a collective breath of relief when the U.S. and Iran deal ends months of fighting by reopening Strait of Hormuz. The fragile calm could not prevent future outbreaks and it is unclear how soon or fully tanker traffic in the crucial waterway will return to normal. Iran and the U.S. announced an agreement late Sunday night to lift the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is where a fifth of the world's oil and LNG flowed through before the February 28th war. Both sides are expected to sign the agreement on Friday. This is a 'good thing' for energy markets that are in a crunch, but it leaves open the major issues, such as the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, which sparked the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign. This ambiguity leaves room for confusion, disagreements and renewed confrontation. In fact, tensions are already rising again. Iran's refusal to link any deal with Israel's campaign in Lebanon against Hezbollah has threatened to derail talks. The Iranian-backed militia have exchanged fire repeatedly with Israel including at the weekend. The status of Hormuz is not clear. The deal gives Tehran a powerful tool, even though both the U.S.A. and Iran are committed to lifting the blockade. Iran's willingness to and ability of blocking the Strait for months broke a decades old taboo. It now has the potential to do it again, or even threaten it in the future whenever it wants leverage over its Gulf neighbors or adversaries. This shift could have long-lasting consequences. Even after the flow of energy returns, it is likely that shippers and buyers will be more cautious. Already, some significant adaptations have taken place. Saudi Arabia has increased its exports from Yanbu, a Red Sea port, by three times since March. This is roughly 60% more than before the war. United Arab Emirates have also increased exports out of Fujairah outside the Strait. Even after the reopening of Hormuz, it is unlikely that Riyadh or Abu Dhabi will reverse their shifts in a complete manner. The shipping behaviour may also change. Charterers and tanker owners will likely reduce their time in the Gulf to avoid being stuck if tensions erupt again. This caution will be reinforced by high insurance costs and concerns about security. These factors indicate that transit through the Hormuz may not reach its peak pre-war of 20 million bpd anytime soon. In the months and years to come, a flow of 16 million bpd or more is more likely. This residual risk will help to support prices. Brent crude prices have fallen below $85 a barrel, from their March peak of $118. However, the higher geopolitical risks and complex logistics will likely prevent a complete unwind to pre-war $60 levels. The Flood of Relief Reopening the Hormuz will lead to a multi-phased adjustment of global energy flows. First, the Gulf will be the source of this wave. The first wave of tankers will be those stranded in the Gulf during the blockade. They will start to leave almost immediately, supplying energy-starved countries and markets. Kpler estimates that around 60 million barrels worth of crude oil and refined products remain in floating storage inside the Gulf because they are unable to leave through Hormuz. Then, an influx will follow of vessels headed toward the Gulf in order to reduce Middle Eastern onshore inventory and restore export programs. Normalisation of logistics will take some time. Supply chains may take up to 60-90 days to fully rebalance due to the long distances travelled, congestion in ports and scheduling bottlenecks. It takes about three weeks to travel from the Middle East to Asia. This means that the resumption in shipments won't bring immediate relief to the most vulnerable markets. The impact of the conflict on global oil supplies will still be significant, even if it is not immediate. The regional producers can bring back 11 million bpd in oil production that was shut down during the conflict. They will also be able reactivate refining capacity and LNG export capability. Some volumes may return in a few weeks, but the complete recovery could take longer. It is difficult to restart fields, refineries, and export terminals following prolonged outages. Infrastructure damage caused by the war may take months, or even years, to repair. A RESILIENT BUT?STRETCHED MARK Reopening the plant also comes at an?important time for supply-demand equilibrium. The summer in the Northern Hemisphere is usually the time when global fuel consumption peaks, due to increased travel and air conditioning. The return of Middle East oil will, therefore, initially only slow down the rapid decline in global inventories. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil stocks dropped at an average of?5.3m bpd from March to May. Remember that the market has been surprisingly resilient during this conflict. The combination of commercial and strategic stock releases, increased U.S. imports, weaker Chinese demands, and partial easing sanctions on Russian crude and Iranian oil helped to cushion the shock. These measures did not eliminate the economic damage but they kept it manageable, effectively buying time for global economies. This time was quickly running out, as inventories were dangerously low. The U.S. and Iran agreement is not a moment too early. The agreement, by obscuring the underlying issues at the core of the U.S. - Iran conflict, does not reduce the risk of a new confrontation. The message for oil markets is clear: although the acute risks from the supply shock are over, the structural vulnerabilities revealed during the war will remain. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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State highway patrol reports 12 deaths in Missouri plane crash
Law enforcement officials reported that 12 people died in the crash of a private plane on Sunday in Butler, Missouri. Missouri State Highway Patrol reported that the crash happened near Butler Memorial Airport about 60 miles south of Kansas City. The?agency posted on X that "at this time, reports indicate that all occupants (12 in total) have died." A spokesperson for Bates County Emergency Management confirmed to local TV station Fox4 that the victims included 11 skydivers and one pilot. Bates County Sheriff Chad Anderson told reporters that the plane had taken off from Butler Memorial Airport and crashed shortly after. Anderson stated that the plane was not a commercial airliner. It was a local aircraft that took off from a local airport. Anderson said at a press conference that "this appears to be an accidental." He said that family members of the victims were present when the crash occurred. Anderson?said that officials from the?U.S. Federal Aviation Administration were at the'scene of a crash, and National Transportation Safety Board Investigators are on their?way. Anderson said that multiple local fire departments as well as?coroners offices responded to an emergency call shortly before 11:15 a.m. (1630 GMT) As of Sunday afternoon, authorities were still 'working to identify the victims and notify their families. (Reporting and writing by Gnaneshwarrajan; editing by Sergio Non, Edmund Klamann and Christian Martinez)
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Iraq has asked Turkey for an extension of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement by at least one year
Ali Nizar, head of Iraqi state oil marketer SOMO said on its official website that Iraq has asked Turkey to extend the current Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement for a minimum of a year in order to give more time to negotiate. Since the beginning of June, Iraq has exported 12,000,000?barrels? of crude oil through its southern ports. Ali Nizar, the SOMO's chief Ali Nizar, said that the Iraqi Government had requested Ankara for more time to?talks about a replacement contract covering the main export route. The long-standing Turkey-Iraq Crude?Pipeline??Agreement that governs the exports via the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline is due to expire?on?July 27, 2019. Baghdad is still in talks with Ankara about a new draft of the agreement. Reporting by Muayad Suadi, Ahmed Rasheed and Ahmed Tolba; writing by Ahmed Tolba from Cairo; editing by Barbara Lewis
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Minister: Saudi Arabia and Turkey want to build a railway link with Jordanian and Syrian.
Abdulkadir Uraloglu, Turkish Transport Minister, said that Turkey and Saudi Arabia are planning to build a railroad to connect?the two nations with Jordan and Syria within the next three to four years. He added that other Gulf countries will also be joining the project. Uraloglu told Al Jazeera that the railway will help ease future problems caused by the disruption of Strait of Hormuz due to the war in Iran. A memorandum signed last week between Ankara, Saudi Arabia and Riyadh on logistics and railways describes the project. Uraloglu stated that in the first phase, the rail link would allow the transportation of goods, natural gas, oil and people between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Syria, Jordan and Europe. He added that later, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar and Oman would also be included. "A train departing from Saudi Arabia from Riyadh has already reached?several areas of Saudi Arabia. This is a plan to get it from Jordan and Syria to Turkey. Uraloglu said that the route would carry all types of cargo to Europe. He said that the route from Saudi Arabia up to Jordan's borders had been completed. On the Turkish side the link from Islahiye in the southeast of Turkey to Kilis, and Gaziantep near the border with Syria, has also been completed. He said that this?leaves an gap of about 400 km (248.55miles) between Syria?and?Jordan. Uraloglu stated that in addition to the commercial trade, the railway could be used for the annual Muslim Hajj pilgrimage. After the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024, the Turkey, which borders Syria, built strong ties with the government?in Damascus and said that it would help rebuild the country. Uraloglu said to?Al Jazeera that a financial plan for the rail project would be?drawn up. The investment will include $100 million for the reconstruction of the route between Turkey's Aleppo and Syria, creating a link directly to Damascus. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Tuvan Gumrukcu)
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UK anti-Islam Robinson detained briefly under terrorism laws
Tommy Robinson, a British anti-Islamist activist, said that he was detained and his phone confiscated at Heathrow Airport on Saturday. This came after he had posted a lot?online for a week about 'racist and antiimmigrant riots? in Northern Ireland. Robinson, whose actual name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon said on X that he was detained on Saturday night for about three hours, under the Counter-Terrorism and?Border Security Act. He said, "My phone was seized by?police", on X. Please help me start my legal defense fund. Robinson tweeted about the violence in Belfast that spread after a viral video showed a brutal stabbing attack on a man who lost an eye. A Sudanese has been charged with the attempted murder of a man. The police have stated that they do not consider the attack to be terrorism. In the days following, rioters attacked 'homes and businesses of ethnic minorities or foreigners in what the British Minister?for the Province called racist thuggery. Local politicians have said that far-right online agitators helped coordinate or promote violence. A?police spokesperson said that officers stopped a man in his 40s on Saturday at Heathrow Airport, after he returned?to Britain from Russia via Turkey. The man's communication devices were confiscated and he was interviewed by police officers. The spokesman confirmed that he was released. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; Kate Holton)
Price hikes and outlook cuts are used by airlines to combat the fuel price surge.
The aviation industry was blindsided by the sudden increase in jet fuel costs from $85 to $100 to $150 to $200 per barrel during the U.S./Israeli war on Iran. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter or more of the operating costs, which has forced airlines to increase fares and re-evaluate their financial forecasts.
Here is an alphabetical list of the ways airlines are responding to this issue:
AEGEAN AIRLINES
The Greek airline anticipates that the suspension of Middle East flights, as well as a spike in fuel costs will have "a significant impact" on its first-quarter results.
AIRASIA X A Malaysian airline said that it will suspend its services between Melbourne and Denpasar, and Adelaide and Denpasar on June 18, due to higher fuel prices.
Executives had previously stated that the airline has cut 10% of its flights and imposed a fuel surcharge of around 20%.
AIR CANADA
Fuel price volatility has caused Canada's largest carrier to suspend its full-year forecast.
The company had announced previously that it would reduce four of its daily flights from New York to just 38 due to rising fuel prices.
AIR CHINA, CHINA SOUTHERN AIRLINES, REGIONAL CHINESE CARRIER
Chinese airlines are increasing fuel surcharges on domestic flights starting May 16. Surcharges will range from 30 to 90 Yuan ($4-$13) for flights less than 800 km. Surcharges for longer routes will rise by up to 170 yuan.
AIR FRANCE-KLM
The airline group expects to pay $2.4 billion more in fuel this year. The airline group has downgraded the full-year forecast for capacity growth to an increase between 2% and 4%. Previously, it had guided to a 3% to 5 percent increase.
The airline announced earlier that it would be increasing the price of long-haul tickets to address rising fuel costs. Cabin fares will increase by 50 euros ($58).
KLM, the Dutch subsidiary of the group, announced on April 16 that it would cancel 160 flights across Europe in the next month due to increasing fuel prices.
AIR INDIA
Between June and August, the Indian carrier will temporarily reduce flights on several international destinations.
Bloomberg News reported that the airline was considering furloughing employees who are not technical and reducing flight capacity more than 20% over the next three month.
Air India said that it will also revise the fuel surcharge, moving from a flat surcharge for domestic flights to a grid based on distance. The company said that surcharges for international routes do not compensate the steep rise in fuel costs.
AIR NEW ZEALAND
The New Zealand airline said that it will review its capital expenditure plans and the timing for aircraft deliveries in order to better align themselves with market demand.
It was one of the first carriers to announce a large increase in ticket prices as the conflict began. The airline warned that further capacity consolidation could occur if fuel costs remain high.
AIR TRANSAT
Canadian Airlines said that it will reduce its planned capacity of 6% between May and October this year. The airline expects to make cuts on routes to Europe, the Caribbean and Cuba, while suspending service until October.
AKASA AIR
India's Akasa Airlines introduced a fuel charge ranging from 199 to 1,300 Indian Rupees ($2 - $14) for domestic and international flights.
ALASKA AIR
Fuel prices are rising sharply, putting pressure on airline margins.
The carrier had previously withdrawn its profit forecast for the full year and warned that earnings would be severely affected in the second quarter. The carrier has also reduced capacity in certain markets.
AMERICAN AIRLINES
The U.S. airline slashed their 2026 profit projection, pushing lower expectations to a deficit, and stated that it expected jet fuel costs to rise by more than 4 billion dollars this year.
The government has increased the fees for checked bags on domestic flights and short-haul international flight by $50 for the third bag and $10 for the second bag. It also reduced certain benefits for economy passengers.
According to the Japanese airline, higher fuel costs will increase its costs by approximately 140 billion yen (883,3 million dollars) this year. However, cost reductions, fares, and hedging are expected to reduce that impact to about 60 billion yen. The airline is also looking at a domestic fuel charge for the fiscal year beginning April 2027.
ASIANA AIRLINES
Newsis reported that the South Korean airline would cut 22 flights from April to July because of fuel price increases.
CATHAY PACIFIC
Hong Kong Airlines said it will reduce fuel surcharges on most flights starting May 16, as part of its "agile response" in response to the fluctuation of jet fuel prices.
CEBU AIR
In response to the rising fuel prices, the Philippine-based airline announced that it has implemented fare adjustments as well as surcharges in various parts of its network.
DELTA AIR LINES
Delta announced that it would reduce capacity by approximately 3.5 percentage points compared to its original plan, and increase fees for checked baggage in order to offset the costs of jet fuel. The increase will be $10 on the first and second bags and $50 on third bags. The U.S. carrier pulled back on all capacity increases for the second quarter, and forecast profits below Wall Street expectations.
EASYJET
EasyJet has warned that it will suffer a larger half-year loss before tax of 540-560 millions pounds ($721-748million), which includes 25 million pound in additional fuel costs for March.
FRONTIER Airlines According to The Wall Street Journal, a group of U.S. low-cost airlines, including Frontier Airlines has proposed a $2.5 billion plan for relief to the U.S. Government. The report stated that the figure was based on the amount of jet fuel the group is expecting to spend this year in comparison to previous forecasts.
Fuel prices have increased dramatically since the carrier's forecast, and it has stated that it will be reviewing it.
GREATER BAY Airlines
The Hong Kong based company said that it would increase fuel surcharges for most routes on April 1 and keep them the same on routes to mainland China and Japan.
HONG KONG Airlines
The airline announced that it would increase fuel surcharges up to 35% starting March 12. The biggest increases would be on flights between Hong Kong, Bangladesh, and Nepal where the charges would go from HK$284 to HK$384 (US$49).
IAG, the owner of British Airways, warned that its annual profit will be lower than anticipated due to rising jet fuel prices and supply disruptions.
It had previously stated that it would increase ticket prices in order to reflect the higher fuel costs. Despite fuel hedges, the company was "not immune" from the wider fallout of fuel price volatility.
INDIGO
India's largest airline announced that it will introduce fuel charges for domestic and international flights starting March 14. The charge for flights into the Middle East is 900 rupees and for flights into Europe, 2,300 rupees.
JETBLUE AERWAYS
JetBlue has suspended its full-year forecast and announced that it will slow hiring, reduce capacity and raise fares in order to mitigate the impact of rising fuel costs.
Sources with knowledge on the subject say that KOREAN Air entered emergency management mode in April as oil prices rose.
LATAM AIRLINES
Fuel prices have increased, causing the airline to cut its core earnings forecast for 2026.
LUFTHANSA
The German airline group has said that it will be hit by jet fuel prices of 1.7 billion euros in 2026.
ITA Airways, a member of the group, announced that it would increase ticket prices by between 5% to 10% in 2026, to compensate for rising fuel costs.
The Lufthansa Group announced in April a new low-cost "Economy Basic", which limits free carry-on luggage to a laptop bag or small backpack.
The airline had previously cut 20,000 short-haul flight from its schedule until October, claiming that it was the equivalent of 40,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel.
PAKISTAN INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS
The airline said that it would raise domestic fares up to $20, and international fares up to $100. It cited higher fuel surcharges as the reason for this.
QANTAS AIRWAYS
Qantas, an Australian airline, said that it has delayed a planned A$150-million ($107-million) buyback. It also increased its fuel estimate for the second half 2026 from A$2.5 billion to A$3.1-3.33 billion.
RYANAIR
Michael O'Leary, CEO of Ryanair, warned that the airline's profits could be "a little under pressure" if oil prices continue to rise in the fiscal year that ends March 2027.
Scandinavian Airlines announced that it would cancel 1,00 flights in April due to high jet fuel and oil prices. In March, the airline had cancelled "couple hundred" of flights.
SPIRIT AIRLINES
Low-cost carriers in the United States have abruptly shut down after collapsing due to financial pressures. This includes the steep rise in fuel prices.
SPRING AIRLINES
Chinese budget airline, China Airlines, announced that it will increase fuel surcharges for domestic flights starting April 5.
SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWEST SOUTHWAST AIRLINES
The U.S. airline forecast a second-quarter profit that was below the market's expectations. Its CEO also warned of a fuel price spike that would cost the airline billions in the quarter.
The previous increase in the cost of checked bags was $10.
The Portuguese airline claimed that price increases would partially offset the impact of fuel price changes on revenue.
THAI AIRASIA
Thai low-cost airline said that it would reduce its overall seat capacity by an average of 30 percent between May and July to offset the impact of rising fuel prices and a softening of demand.
THAI AIRWAYS
The Thailand-based airline said that it would increase fares between 10% and 15% in order to combat rising fuel prices.
The European airline, tour operator and travel agency cut their full-year profit forecast and suspended revenue guidance. They said they had incurred extra costs of about 40 million euro due to the March war, including repatriation and operational disruptions.
TURKISH AIRLINES LUFTHANSA
SunExpress, the joint venture between Turkish Airlines, Lufthansa and Lufthansa announced that it would charge a temporary fuel fee of 10 euros for each passenger on routes connecting Turkey with mainland Europe. The fuel surcharge will apply to all bookings made after April 1, for departures after May 1.
Turkish Airlines announced on April 10, that it would not be distributing any dividends from its net profit for 2025, instead choosing to keep the earnings and preserve cash.
T'WAY AIR
South Korean low cost carrier, South Korean Low-cost Airlines, announced that it would furlough cabin crew in May and/or June without pay as part of measures to address the effects of war.
UNITED AIRLINES
Scott Kirby, CEO of the U.S. airline, said that ticket prices could need to increase by up to 15% or 20% in order to offset an increase in fuel costs. The company had already implemented five fare hikes late in the first-quarter, along with increased baggage fees that it claimed were helping to offset rising fuel prices.
The carrier forecasted second-quarter and annual profits that were below Wall Street expectations. It said it would recover only 40-50% through fares and revenue measures during the second quarter. This figure was expected to improve to 70-80% by the third quarter and up to 85-100% in the fourth.
VIETJET
A potential fuel shortage has led to the Vietnamese budget airline reducing flight frequencies on certain routes.
VIETNAM?AIRLINES
Vietnam's Aviation Authority announced that the carrier will cancel 23 flights per day on domestic routes starting in April after it requested assistance from the government to remove an environment tax on jet fuel.
VIRGIN ATLANTIC
Corneel Kster, the CEO of the airline, told The Financial Times that despite adding fuel surcharges on fares this year it will be difficult to achieve profitability.
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA
Virgin Australia has said that it expects fuel costs to increase by around A$30-40million in the second half of the fiscal year and a reduction of 1% in capacity for the fourth quarter.
VOLOTEA
The Spanish low cost airline has introduced a new pricing strategy that links ticket prices with fuel costs. This could add an additional surcharge after purchase of up to fourteen euros per passenger per flight.
WESTJET
Globe and Mail reports that the Canadian airline has reduced seat capacity in June. The Canadian Press reported previously that the airline would add C$60 ($44.50) to certain bookings, and combine flights due to rising costs.
WIZZ AIR
Low-cost carrier revised upwards its guidance, citing strong bookings in advance and quick action to offset rising fuel prices and flight cancelations by adding capacity on new and existing routes and using promotional rates. The company had warned of a possible profit drop at the beginning of the Iran War.
(source: Reuters)