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Fuel price shock widens product gap between US Airlines

Fuel?shocks that hit U.S. Airlines are doing more than just squeezing the margins. They're widening an existing product gap, which may take many years to close, as strong carriers continue to invest in lounges and premium seating, along with technology, international networks, that their weaker competitors may not be able to match.

Executives from financially strong carriers such as United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Alaska Air spoke at the International Air Transport Association (IATA)'s annual meeting in Rio de Janeiro. They said that a growing divide exists between those airlines who have the ability to upgrade their services and those who are forced to conserve money and slow down investment.

In the U.S., there is also an increasing K-shaped economy where consumers with higher incomes continue to spend without restraint while travelers who are price sensitive pull back. Investments in premium products are designed to appeal to high-spending travelers.

In an interview, Scott Kirby, CEO of United Airlines said that air travel was not a commodity. Customers care about technology, service, reliability and product. They want to have a wonderful experience. "They don't want just a seat."

Kirby stated that United will recover all of the cost increases in fuel by increasing fares at year's end, even though he expects some pressure to be placed on demand. He said that the airline continues to invest heavily into aircraft, technology, and customer-facing product, all of which are supported by an earnings advantage.

IATA's North American outlook this week predicted a growing gap between low-cost operators and resilient network carriers.

The collapse of Spirit Airlines, a U.S. low-cost carrier, last month has raised concerns about carriers with lower margins and weaker balance sheets. Fuel costs are also increasing cash pressures.

S&P Global Ratings cut JetBlue Airways credit rating further into junk territory on Monday, citing "higher fuel prices and its heavy debt burden."

JetBlue CEO Joanna Geraghty stated in an internal note to viewed by that the company was not contemplating bankruptcy. However, she said fuel prices made the situation more difficult and "the decks were stacked against us" citing the larger competitors' loyalty, network and credit card advantages.

United and JetBlue have a reciprocal loyalty agreement and network collaboration, and Kirby stated that he didn't expect JetBlue to file for Chapter 11 protection "anytime in the near future" citing the cash it has and its?unencumbered? assets.

JetBlue didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment.

INVESTMENT GAP

Fuel prices are influencing how much airlines are willing to spend on premium seating, airport lounges and other products that passengers want.

Southwest Chief Operating officer Andrew Watterson stated that the investment gap would likely widen, as borrowing costs increase and become a greater burden on more indebted companies. This is especially true for those who rely on aircraft leasebacks or new debt.

Watterson stated in an interview that "if you borrow money, your interest expenses will go up." Watterson said in an interview that the higher your costs are, the lower the growth rate and the lower the investment you make in products.

Southwest was able to invest because of its strong profits and solid balance sheet. Rivals were forced into defensive mode.

Southwest is evaluating the products that were once associated with network airlines -- from airport lounges, to transoceanic flights and premium seating -- which could mark a possible shift away from its low-cost traditional model. Watterson says that the lounges are most advanced, and a decision could be made this year.

LOYALTY BUFFER

Alaska Air's Chief Financial Officer Shane Tackett stated that airlines without strong loyalty and premium revenue streams are facing the most strain following a near-doubling of fuel prices since Iran war began.

He said that some airlines have a business model that is really challenged by the current environment.

Alaskan demand is holding steady. Tackett stated that corporate bookings for the next 90-day period were up 20-30% from the year before, across all geographies and sectors. Fare increases will be expected to offset the majority of fuel costs in the second half. He said that if demand remains stable, operating cash burn may fall to zero, or even turn slightly positive.

Alaska can continue to expand its premium and long-haul ambitions following its purchase of Hawaiian Airlines. Tackett stated that the airline plans to upgrade Hawaiian Airlines' Airbus A330 cabins with fully enclosed suites, international premium economy and international premium economy.

Alaska's need to borrow shows the impact of higher fuel prices. Alaska Airlines raised $1 billion in secured debt and unsecured debt earlier this year, which was its first unsecured offering. Tackett stated that the deal had been well received by investors, and Alaska did not plan to increase liquidity or reduce capital expenditure.

He said that credit markets assess airlines individually and rebutted concerns that multiple airline tapping the capital markets will automatically increase funding costs for the entire industry.

In an interview, he stated that he did not believe the credit benefits or credit expenses are applied to all industries. It depends on your profile, balance sheet and ability to generate operating cash flow. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Rajesh Kumar Singh)

(source: Reuters)