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Europe's wind farms on track to eclipse coal output in 2025: Maguire

Europe's wind farms might produce more electrical power than the region's. coalfired power plants for the first time in 2025 if the recent. rate of output growth in wind production and output cuts in coal. generation extends through the year.

Total electrical power created by Europe's wind farms was just. 4% less than by the continent's coal plants in 2024, at 616. terawatt hours (TWh) versus 641 TWh, according to information from. energy think tank Ash.

Compared to the year before, coal generation was 7% lower in. 2024 while wind generation was 3% higher, and if those output. changes are repeated in 2025 then Europe's wind electricity. production will exceed coal production by around 6% in 2025.

Greater full-year generation by wind farms over coal plants. would mark the very first time a single source of renewable energy. exceeded coal-fired electricity output in any significant region, and. would be a key energy transition turning point.

NARROWING THE SPACE

The 25 TWh deficiency in wind generation compared to. coal-fired generation in 2024 is around half of the quantity of. electricity produced by Europe's wind farms every month,. according to Ember.

As a result, that output gap could quickly be made up over. the course of 2025 by a boost in local wind generation. capacity or by higher typical wind speeds at turbine level, or. by some mix of both.

According to market group Wind Europe, regional power. companies included 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind generation capability in. 2024, bringing the region's total wind capability to around 287. GW.

That rise in generation footprint must allow the region's. wind farms to lift regional electrical power production to a record. in 2025, possibly to around 652 TWh if the 6% growth in. capability yields an equal-sized increase in electricity output.

ESSENTIAL DANGERS

That potential 652 TWh of wind electrical power output ought to be. enough to exceed regional coal generation in 2025, even if. coal-fired output holds flat this year from 2024's levels.

But if coal-fired output in 2025 declines by the exact same degree. as it performed in 2024 - by 7% - then wind generation could exceed. coal-fired generation by close to 10%, and mark a major turning. point in local energy shift efforts.

However, there are a number of dangers dealing with Europe's power. sector this year that might still lead to local coal power. remaining above local wind output.

The main prospective disruptive element is the supply of. gas, which looks set to contract once again in 2025 after. pipeline streams from Russia to certain European markets dropped. from last year's levels.

Natural gas is the area's main power source, so decreased. gas supplies this year might require Europe's energies to boost. coal usage in order to balance out lower system generation from gas.

Simply a 1% drop in natural gas-fired electrical energy generation. would need power firms to produce around 10 TWh more. electricity from other sources.

And if coal-fired plants are the main ways of balancing out. that lower gas-fired output, then local coal-fired production. could jump back above 650 TWh for the year, and possibly. stay above wind output in 2025.

Another essential risk is a prolonged run of below-normal wind. speeds throughout Europe's wind farms.

In 2024, Europe's month-to-month wind electrical power amounts to dropped. below the year-before total on five occasions, even with the. increase in overall generation capability last year.

These year-over-year generation drops came not just during. the summertime - when wind speeds tend to strike their yearly lows -. but likewise during October and November when autumnal winds. normally pick up and improve wind electricity output.

The low wind speed problem was especially severe in Germany. - the area's top wind producer - and stays a concern for power. companies so far in 2025.

The most recent German wind generation forecasts by LSEG call for. wind output to stay listed below the long-lasting average for the next. week or so, but then climb back above typical towards completion of. the month.

Additional spells of low wind speeds throughout the year could. curtail general wind generation in 2025.

An extra risk is the region's level of commercial. activity, which has been controlled since 2022 due to above-normal. energy costs and weak customer demand.

Continued weak point among smokestack plants and factories. ought to keep total coal usage in power generation under pressure,. and possibly trigger more cuts to coal usage in Europe.

However, a synchronized upturn in Europe's commercial. activity would set off an increase in overall energy intake,. which would result in higher output from all source of power as. power suppliers attempt to stay up to date with need.

Obviously, greater total wind output could assist supply much. of the additional electrical power required, and assist to accelerate the. local power sector pivot away from polluting fuels.

However coal will likely remain a crucial back-up fuel and could. delight in a resurgence in usage if wind production ends up being stymied. through much of 2025.

The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a market. analyst .

(source: Reuters)