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Two ports in Western Australia’s Pilbara Region reopen following Tropical Cyclone Zelia
The operator of the Western Australia ports Dampier and Varanus Island has announced that the ports have reopened after Tropical Cyclone Zelia struck the state's Pilbara Iron Ore Region on Friday. On its website, Pilbara Ports announced late Friday that the ports, which are a hub for gathering and processing oil and gas, had reopened. They were closed on Thursday night as Zelia approached, the worst storm to strike the Pilbara Coast since Cyclone Ilsa, in April 2023. The alert stated that "Pilbara Ports have undertaken inspections on navigation aids, channels and docks and confirmed safe operations can be resumed." Zelia caused heavy rains and wind gusts of up to 180 mph (290 kph) as it hit land. Its approach led to the closure of Port Hedland, the largest iron ore hub in the world. Cape Lambert, the region's port, was also closed. Pilbara Ports has not responded to an inquiry about whether Port Hedland will remain closed on Saturday after Zelia, a category five hurricane, crossed the coast of the port shortly after 12 pm (0400 GMT) Friday. The storm moved to the south, where it weakened into a category 4, sparing the population centre of the town from its strongest winds. The weather forecaster for the nation said that Zelia was now downgraded to tropical low and "dissipating" over the Pilbara inland. The forecaster stated on its website that "Ex-Tropical cyclone Zelia" is still below cyclone strength and continues to weaken, as it slowly moves south and further into the Pilbara region. Angus Hines told Australian Broadcasting Corp, however, that the flood levels in some Pilbara cities could rise due to the heavy rains brought by the former cyclone. The Department of Fire and Emergency Services in Western Australia said that an emergency warning had been issued for Saturday to residents living between Warralong and Marble Bar, two remote towns located about 157 kilometers (97 miles), southeast of Port Hedland. Port Hedland, used by BHP, Fortescue, and Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting is where Rio Tinto ships iron ore. BHP and Fortescue both announced separately that they had halted their Port Hedland mining operations for safety reasons and had instructed teams to take shelter at home or in camp. Fortescue also announced that it had closed its Iron Bridge mine and cancelled all non-essential Pilbara site travel. BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment made on Saturday.
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Asian spot LNG prices rise amid colder weather and Europe stock concerns
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas rose this week to a record high, despite forecasts for colder weather and concerns about Europe's storage levels. The average LNG price in March for delivery to northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $16.10, which is the highest it has been since November 2023. Sources estimate that the average price of April delivery is $15.50/mmBtu. The trading will switch to the April contract on Monday, February 17. The main concern for the market is the rapid withdrawal of gas from Europe's inventories... "The region is on track to import approximately 11 million tons (tonnes) of LNG by February," stated Siamak Adibi at FGE, the director for gas and LNG supplies analytics. "Europe will need to import more LNG this year in order to meet the higher gas consumption, and reduce gas inventories. If Asian demand increases, tightening of the market could have an even greater impact on spot price. Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG Pricing, stated that Asian prices are also supported because the market must remain competitive, and maintain a certain level of LNG spot volume, in order for a base level of LNG to be shipped into Asia. RISE OF FURTHER STOCK DEPLETION IN EUROPE A number of LNG cargoes have been diverted to Europe due to higher European prices, and weaker Asian demand. Argus Senior also forecasted that Tokyo and Seoul would both experience cold snaps at the end the month. However, this will be followed by a return to the seasonal average temperatures. Gas prices in Europe have fallen from their two-year highs due to forecasts for warmer temperatures, the ongoing U.S. effort to end the conflict in Ukraine, and talk of less rigid storage targets. Hans Van Cleef is the chief energy economist of PZ-Energy. He said that market uncertainty remains, despite Europe's inventory dropping to 47%. Winter months are still to come. The negative mood on the markets will only intensify the risk of an even more rapid depletion of stocks. S&P Global Commodity Insights set its daily North West Europe Gas Marker benchmark price for cargoes to be delivered in March, on an ex-ship based basis, at $15.137/mmBtu. This was a $0.55/mmBtu reduction from the gas price in March at the Dutch TTF Hub. Spark Commodities valued the price at $15.097/mmBtu while Argus set it at $15.11/mmBtu. Qasim Afghanistan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, stated that the U.S. arbitrage for north-east Asia via Cape of Good Hope in February has narrowed for the third consecutive week. However, it still signals that U.S. cargoes will be delivered to Europe rather than Asia. Afghan added that the rates for LNG in the Atlantic region rose marginally to $5,000/day, a slight recovery from their record lows of two weeks ago. Pacific rates were unchanged at $10,000/day. (Reporting from Emily Chow in Singapore, with additional reporting by Marwa Rashed in London. Editing by Vijay Kishore & Emelia Sithole Matarise).
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Russian Urals oil price drops below price cap due to cheaper Brent and freight costs
Calculations on Friday showed that the price of Urals crude oil in Primorsk, Russia and Ust-Luga, Russia fell below the Western price ceiling level of $60 a barrel on Thursday as global oil prices dropped and freight rates rose for Russian oil shipments. According to the cap, which was imposed by the Group of Seven and Australia in 2022 to reduce Russia's oil export revenue, buyers are only allowed access to Western services, such as insurance and shipping, when the price of Russian crude falls below $60 per barrel. LSEG data indicates that the Urals price in Russian ports has remained above $60 per barrel for the majority of 2024. Calculations show that the recent drop in Brent oil, the global benchmark price, and the increase in freight costs due to the new U.S. Sanctions have led to estimates for Urals oil to be loaded from Baltic ports on Thursday for $59.33 per barrel on a free-on-board basis. The calculation of the Urals crude oil price is based on the grade’s market price in Indian ports delivered ex-ship, the transport costs, and Brent benchmark. It's assessed for the day before.
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Enbridge reports higher fourth-quarter adjusted profit
Enbridge, the pipeline operator, reported on Friday a higher adjusted profit for its fourth quarter. This was due to higher Mainline tolls as well as lower power costs. The company reported a profit adjusted of C$5.13 (US$3.62 billion) in the quarter ending December 31. This is up from C$4.1billion a year ago. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported in January that crude oil production in the United States fell marginally from its monthly record of 13,436 million barrels a day in October. This resulted in a boost in crude flow through pipelines. Mainline is the largest crude oil pipeline in North America. It transports crude oil, natural gases liquids and refined products between Edmonton, Alberta and various markets in Canada, the U.S. Midwest and Canada. Enbridge transports about 40% of the crude oil produced in North America. The adjusted core profit for its Mainline system increased 3% to C$1.34 Billion. Enbridge has also raised its quarterly dividend for 2025 by 3%. Greg Ebel, CEO of Enbridge, said that the impact from tariffs proposed on U.S. imports of energy is not expected to have a material effect on Enbridge's financial forecast. According to LSEG data, the company reported a profit adjusted of 75 Canadian cents. This is in line with analyst estimates.
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Asian spot LNG prices rise amid colder weather and Europe stock concerns
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas (LNG), which is a product of liquefied natural gases, rose this week to a record high. This was due to the forecast of cooler temperatures and concerns about Europe's storage levels. The average LNG price in March for delivery to northeast Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $16.10, which is the highest it has been since November 2023. The main concern for the market is the rapid withdrawal of gas from Europe's inventories. "The region is on track to import approximately 11 million tons (tonnes) of LNG by February," stated Siamak Adibi at FGE, the director for gas and LNG supplies analytics. "Europe will need to import more LNG this year in order to meet the higher gas consumption, and reduce gas inventories. If Asian demand increases, tightening of the market could have an even greater impact on spot price. Martin Senior, head LNG pricing at Argus, stated that Asian prices are also supported because the market must remain competitive, and maintain its own price into certain spot volumes in order for a baseline amount of LNG to flow to Asia. A number of LNG cargos have been diverted to Europe due to higher European prices, and weaker Asian demand. Senior, Argus, also predicted that Tokyo and Seoul would both experience cold snaps at the end the month. However, this will be followed by a return to the seasonal average temperatures. Gas prices in Europe have fallen from their two-year highs due to forecasts for warmer temperatures, the ongoing U.S. effort to end the conflict in Ukraine, and talk of less rigid storage targets. Hans Van Cleef is the chief energy economist of PZ-Energy. He said that market uncertainty remains, despite Europe's inventory dropping to 47%. Winter months are still to come. The negative mood on the markets will only intensify the risk of an even more rapid depletion of stocks. S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe (NWM) LNG Marker price benchmark on February 13 at $15.137/mmBtu, a $0.55/mmBtu reduction from the March gas prices at the Dutch TTF Hub. Spark Commodities valued the price at $15.097/mmBtu while Argus set it at $15.11/mmBtu. Qasim Afghanistan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, stated that the U.S. arbitrage for north-east Asia via Cape of Good Hope in February has narrowed for the third consecutive week. However, it still signals that U.S. cargoes will be delivered to Europe rather than Asia. Afghan added that the rates for LNG in the Atlantic region rose marginally to $5,000/day, a slight recovery from their record lows of two weeks ago. Pacific rates were unchanged at $10,000/day. (Reporting and editing by Emily Chow)
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South Korea's MFG purchases about 60,000 tonnes of soymeal.
Major Feedmill Group of South Korea (MFG) bought an estimated 60,000 tons of soymeal in an international auction on Friday. The soymeal was expected to come from the United States or South America, traders reported. The cost of the ton was estimated at $364.66, including freight and a surcharge for port unloading. Olam is believed to have been the seller. The reports reflect the assessments of traders, and future estimates of price and volume are possible. The bidder requested one shipment for arrival in South Korea on or around July 25, Shipping was requested between May 28 and 16 if soymeal comes from South America; July 6-25 from China; and between June 22 to July 11 from the U.S. Pacific Northwest Coast. If the product is purchased from the United States of America or China, then only 59,000 tonnes are required. MFG was active on international markets last week. It bought 132,000 metric tonnes of animal feed corn at an international auction on Thursday, and 115,000 tons of feed wheat privately on Wednesday. Michael Hogan, reporting; David Goodman, editing
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Greek investigation into 2023 migrant vessel wreck finds coastguard violated maritime rules
Sources told Friday that Greece's Ombudsman found that the Coast Guard failed to adhere to maritime rules during one of the Mediterranean’s worst shipwrecks, in 2023. The coast guard raised the alarm after the overcrowded boat sank. The findings of the investigation by Greek Ombudsman Andreas Pottakis have not yet been published but confirm the testimonies of survivors. They have also been sent to the naval court that is investigating possible criminal acts by the authority. Pottakis, last week, recommended disciplinary actions against eight Coast Guard officers. He cited "clear indicators" of alleged negligence of duty that resulted in the endangerment of the lives of the people aboard the trawler called Adriana. The Shipping Ministry stated that the judicial authorities will evaluate the report, and that they trust the coast guard to "effectively protect" the Greek and EU border. When asked to comment, the Coast Guard authorities on Friday referred back to a statement from the Shipping Ministry. The Coast Guard monitored Adriana for fifteen hours before it capsized in international waters near Pylos, a town located southwest of Pylos. About 750 passengers were on board when it left Libya bound for Italy. Only 104 people are known to be alive. One source said that an investigation found the coastguard did not follow protocol, and he delayed the SAR operation while it waited for a boat to leave Greece and sail into Italy. The source said that "at no stage prior to the boat sinking was the risk escalated beyond monitoring into a distress or alert phase," citing a 148-page document which discredits the coast guard's statements that the vessel was seaworthy and the people on board didn't seek rescue. The sources also said that the Coast Guard did not respond to the calls of the European Union border agency Frontex and had never requested assistance. They also noted the lack of a response from the Coast Guard in responding to Frontex's requests for assistance and the deployment of just one vessel, which could carry up 36 people and was equipped with special forces and limited rescue equipment. Sources claim that the Coast Guard told two merchant vessels approaching Adriana to leave before it capsized. Rescue operations were delayed when people fell into the sea. According to sources, the coast guard failed to alert Adriana about its final approach and did not record coastguard communications during pivotal hours. This made it impossible to draw any conclusions regarding its capsize.
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India will remain a bright spot in petchem demand by 2025
Industry executives told the India Energy Week conference that India's petrochemical market will grow in 2025, despite the fact that global demand is still behind supply. This is due to a growing demand for household appliances, solar panels, and electric vehicle components. Sanjay Khanna, director of refineries at Bharat Oil, said that the company is seeing a good demand locally in sectors such as propylene. A S Sahney, chairman of Indian Oil, said that demand for oil is expected to be resilient in 2019. Petrochemicals can be used as building blocks in a wide range of products, including plastics, pharmaceuticals, and paints. Ganesh G. Gopalakrishnan is the global head of TotalEnergies petrochemicals trading. He said that there was a good demand in the automotive sector, while white goods are recovering. The global petrochemical market margins will remain low for several more years due to the weak demand of China, which is the world's largest petrochemical consumer. There is also an excess supply coming from new plants in China and Middle East. TotalEnergies Gopalakrishnan said that the industry was waiting for China to unveil its incentive plan in march. This could boost China's demand, and improve global margins on petrochemicals. Pankaj Srivastava is an analyst with Rystad Energy. He said that while Indian refineries have avoided losses by producing their own petrochemical naphtha feedstock, margins for standalone plants that rely on imported feed have been negative over the past 3-4 years. India continues to receive investments. Hardeep Singh Puri, India's oil minister, said that the country would receive $87 billion in investments over the next decade. This will be to meet the rising demand for petrochemicals. He said India consumes between 25 and 30 million metric tonnes of petrochemicals annually and that the chemical and petrochemicals industry, valued at currently $220 billion, will grow to $300 billion in 2025. Nayara Energy, Haldia Petrochemicals and other companies have already announced their plans to increase production. Petronet LNG has built a complex of petrochemicals in Gujarat, which includes a 750,000-metric-ton-per-year propane dehydrogenation and 500,000-metric-ton-per-year polypropylene unit. Akshay Kumar Sing, Chief Executive of Petronet LNG, said: "The downturn has always been cyclical. We hope margins recover in the next three years." (Reporting and editing by Florence Tan, Michael Perry, and Mohi Nrayan)
Europe's wind farms on track to eclipse coal output in 2025: Maguire
Europe's wind farms might produce more electrical power than the region's. coalfired power plants for the first time in 2025 if the recent. rate of output growth in wind production and output cuts in coal. generation extends through the year.
Total electrical power created by Europe's wind farms was just. 4% less than by the continent's coal plants in 2024, at 616. terawatt hours (TWh) versus 641 TWh, according to information from. energy think tank Ash.
Compared to the year before, coal generation was 7% lower in. 2024 while wind generation was 3% higher, and if those output. changes are repeated in 2025 then Europe's wind electricity. production will exceed coal production by around 6% in 2025.
Greater full-year generation by wind farms over coal plants. would mark the very first time a single source of renewable energy. exceeded coal-fired electricity output in any significant region, and. would be a key energy transition turning point.
NARROWING THE SPACE
The 25 TWh deficiency in wind generation compared to. coal-fired generation in 2024 is around half of the quantity of. electricity produced by Europe's wind farms every month,. according to Ember.
As a result, that output gap could quickly be made up over. the course of 2025 by a boost in local wind generation. capacity or by higher typical wind speeds at turbine level, or. by some mix of both.
According to market group Wind Europe, regional power. companies included 15 gigawatts (GW) of wind generation capability in. 2024, bringing the region's total wind capability to around 287. GW.
That rise in generation footprint must allow the region's. wind farms to lift regional electrical power production to a record. in 2025, possibly to around 652 TWh if the 6% growth in. capability yields an equal-sized increase in electricity output.
ESSENTIAL DANGERS
That potential 652 TWh of wind electrical power output ought to be. enough to exceed regional coal generation in 2025, even if. coal-fired output holds flat this year from 2024's levels.
But if coal-fired output in 2025 declines by the exact same degree. as it performed in 2024 - by 7% - then wind generation could exceed. coal-fired generation by close to 10%, and mark a major turning. point in local energy shift efforts.
However, there are a number of dangers dealing with Europe's power. sector this year that might still lead to local coal power. remaining above local wind output.
The main prospective disruptive element is the supply of. gas, which looks set to contract once again in 2025 after. pipeline streams from Russia to certain European markets dropped. from last year's levels.
Natural gas is the area's main power source, so decreased. gas supplies this year might require Europe's energies to boost. coal usage in order to balance out lower system generation from gas.
Simply a 1% drop in natural gas-fired electrical energy generation. would need power firms to produce around 10 TWh more. electricity from other sources.
And if coal-fired plants are the main ways of balancing out. that lower gas-fired output, then local coal-fired production. could jump back above 650 TWh for the year, and possibly. stay above wind output in 2025.
Another essential risk is a prolonged run of below-normal wind. speeds throughout Europe's wind farms.
In 2024, Europe's month-to-month wind electrical power amounts to dropped. below the year-before total on five occasions, even with the. increase in overall generation capability last year.
These year-over-year generation drops came not just during. the summertime - when wind speeds tend to strike their yearly lows -. but likewise during October and November when autumnal winds. normally pick up and improve wind electricity output.
The low wind speed problem was especially severe in Germany. - the area's top wind producer - and stays a concern for power. companies so far in 2025.
The most recent German wind generation forecasts by LSEG call for. wind output to stay listed below the long-lasting average for the next. week or so, but then climb back above typical towards completion of. the month.
Additional spells of low wind speeds throughout the year could. curtail general wind generation in 2025.
An extra risk is the region's level of commercial. activity, which has been controlled since 2022 due to above-normal. energy costs and weak customer demand.
Continued weak point among smokestack plants and factories. ought to keep total coal usage in power generation under pressure,. and possibly trigger more cuts to coal usage in Europe.
However, a synchronized upturn in Europe's commercial. activity would set off an increase in overall energy intake,. which would result in higher output from all source of power as. power suppliers attempt to stay up to date with need.
Obviously, greater total wind output could assist supply much. of the additional electrical power required, and assist to accelerate the. local power sector pivot away from polluting fuels.
However coal will likely remain a crucial back-up fuel and could. delight in a resurgence in usage if wind production ends up being stymied. through much of 2025.
The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a market. analyst .
(source: Reuters)