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Ship-tracking data reveals that six Saudi oil tankers have turned away from the Gulf of Aden.
Six supertankers flying the Saudi flag have altered course in recent days in 'the Gulf of Aden,' and are now heading south to afria. This is in response to 'threats made by Yemen Houthi to target Saudi shipping. According to AIS tracking on LSEG/MarineTraffic, the tankers were in formation, heading towards southern Africa after having returned from Asia with no cargo. They did not transit the southern Red Sea through the Bab el-Mandeb 'chokepoint. Ship tracking revealed that one of the tankers, "Dilam", had Gibraltar on its itinerary. Bahri, the Saudi vessel's operator, and other Saudi officials have not responded to requests for comment. Two trade sources, who based their assessment on the security situation said that the tankers, which each can carry up to two million barrels crude oil, chose to reroute via Cape Town. If they choose to return to Saudi ports on the Red Sea via a crossing of 'Suez, their 'journeys would add an additional 25 days to their sailing time. calculations. On July 20, the Iran-aligned Houthis declared a naval embargo against Saudi Arabia. This opened a new front in the Iran War against the U.S. and its allies. Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked ships in recent days prompted London's Marine Insurance?market to last week?extend its "high risk zone" in the Red Sea to include waters near more Saudi Arabian port. (Reporting and editing by David Gooding, Barbara Lewis, and Jonathan Saul)
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What has been attacked by Ukraine in its attacks on Russian energy sites?
Ukraine's forces have struck Russia's energy infrastructure, which Kyiv claims is an attempt to deny Russia resources for funding its military. Here is a list of recent attacks and their impact, starting with the most recent: SARATOV On August 2, the Ukrainian military attacked Rosneft's Saratov oil refining plant in southwest Russia. Two sources claim that the Saratov oil refining plant in Russia stopped oil processing July 9 due to damage caused by a drone attack. The plant will process 5.8 million tons of oil in 2024. VOLGOGRAD On July 31, a drone attack in the southern Volgograd region of Russia set ablaze a?energy?facility? and warehouses, injuring at least five people, according to the regional 'governor?, Andrei Bocharov. He did not provide any further details on the damages. The Lukoil refinery will process 13.5 million tonnes of oil in 2024. RYAZAN Russia’s Ryazan refinery - one of the largest in the country - halted crude processing on July 29, following a drone strike, and two industry sources said that it could close for up to two weeks. The refinery will process 13.1 million tonnes of crude oil by 2024. Two industry sources confirmed that a Ukrainian drone attack at Lukoil’s Perm refinery caused an fire which damaged one of the crude distillation units. By 2024, it is expected that the refinery will process approximately 12.6 million tonnes of oil. TYUMEN On July 25, Russian authorities reported that a Ukrainian drone struck the Tyumen refinery, located in western Siberia. The fire was extinguished later. Sources said that the refinery stopped operations following the attack. The plant processes approximately 6 million tonnes of crude oil per year. YAROSLAVL On July 27, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian 'oil facilities in Yaroslavl (about 250 km northeast of Moscow), according to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The refinery at Yaroslavl can process 15 million tonnes per annum. Industry sources confirmed that the Salavat complex in Bashkortostan's Urals region halted its operations on July 14th following an attack by a Ukrainian drone. AFIPSKY A fire has broken out at the Afipsky refinery, in southern Krasnodar Region of Russia. The cause was drone debris that fell from the sky. The refinery is capable of processing over 9 million tons of oil each year. SYZRAN According to industry sources, the Russian Syzran oil refining plant on the Volga River in the Samara Region halted its operations on July 12 after a drone strike damaged a primary unit. On May 21, Ukrainian drones also?attacked the Rosneft owned refinery. The refinery stopped operations after the attack damaged a primary unit. The refinery had suspended operations after the attacks of April 18. The refinery can process 8.5 million tonnes per annum. ILSKY On July 10, local officials reported that a drone had attacked the Ilsky oil refinery, located in southern Krasnodar. The design capacity of the refinery is more than 6 million metric tonnes of oil per annum. OMSK On July 6, Ukrainian drones attacked the Omsk refinery, causing a large fire. The Russian air defences destroyed the majority of drones, said Vitaly Khotsenko, Governor. The extent of the damage to the refinery was not immediately known. The design capacity of Omsk's oil refinery is about 22 million metric tonnes of oil per annum. NORSI Ukrainian drones struck NORSI, Russia’s fourth largest oil refinery owned by Lukoil for the second time on 2 July and, according to sources,?crude production was suspended. The attack damaged CDU-6 which can process 25700 metric tonnes per day. This is 53% of refinery capacity. NORSI is the second largest producer of gasoline in Russia. It can process up to 16 million metric tonnes of oil each year. UFA Ukraine forces attacked an oil refinery?for the second time on 1 July in the city Ufa near the Ural Mountains. The refinery is capable of processing more than 7,000,000 tons of oil each year. Sources claim that the MOSCOW oil refinery in Moscow has halted its operations following a drone attack by Ukraine on 16 June. On June 18, a second attack caused damage to processing units as well as multiple fires. The Kapotnya district in the south-east of the capital has a capacity of 11 million tons per year. Ports/oil facilities The Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped receiving oil on July 20, following attacks against oil tankers at their Black Sea terminal. Chevron CVX.N CEO said last Friday that the CPC pipeline flowed and ships were loading. Kyiv’s security service reported on July 25, that Ukrainian drones had struck the Filanovsky platform owned by Russia's Lukoil LKOH.MM, in the Caspian Sea. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the President of Ukraine, said that Ukraine had struck two Russian oil storage depots located in Tver and Stavropol, which are both approximately 500 km away from the frontline. On July 8, Ukrainian drones struck the Krasnodarskaya 'pumping station', which is part of the natural-gas supply chain to Turkey via Blue Stream pipe. However, gas supplies were unaffected. Kyiv reported on July 8 that Ukrainian drones had struck an oil pumping facility in Russia's Bashkortostan Region, which is more than 1,500km from the border. Authorities said that Ukrainian drone attacks in Sevastopol (home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet) and Vysotsk, both Baltic Sea ports, caused damage on July 6. Authorities said that a drone strike caused a fire to break out in a loading complex at the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk. (Reporting and Editing by Ros Russel)
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Source: Kazakhstan's oil-and-gas condensate production fell by 14% from June to July
A source familiar with the operational data said that Kazakhstan's crude oil and gas condensate?production?fell from 2,16 million barrels per days in June to?about 1,85 million barrels a day or 7,6 million metric tonnes in July 2026. Sources said that the decline in oil exports was due to disruptions on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main route of export for Kazakh crude. Kazakhstan's oil output is heavily dependent on the CPC. It has no other real options to export the vast majority of its oil output elsewhere. Last month, oil exports via CPC were interrupted several times. Loadings at one stage faced a?one-week suspension because of ongoing drone strikes which damaged vessels near the port. OIL IS CURRENTLY FLOWING THROUGH THE CPC PIPELINE Chevron's CEO, who controls the operator of Tengiz Oil Field in Kazakhstan and is the owner of the CPC pipeline, stated on a Friday earnings call that the CPC pipeline was currently flowing, and ships were loading this week. Over 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports pass through the CPC pipeline system. The majority of these volumes come from the Tengiz and Kashagan fields. According to the source daily oil production in Tengiz dropped 18% from June. Production at Kashagan fell 25%, and Karachaganak's output decreased 18%. Source: Tengiz's production stood at 454,000 bpd as of July 31 compared to an average of 961,000 in June. Tengizchevroil is the operator of Tengiz and does not comment on specifics of its production. The Kazakh Energy Minister and the operators of Kashagan & Karachaganak didn't immediately respond to requests for comment. Kazakhstan plans to produce around 95 million tons of crude oil by 2026. However, incidents at major oilfields as well as export restrictions have made it difficult to achieve this target. (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).
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WestJet Flight Attendants end their strike after tentative wage agreement
The union that represents?flight attendants for Canada's WestJet has reached a tentative?deal on Monday with the second largest carrier in the country, ending a striking which led to hundreds of cancelled flights during the busy summer travel season. The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), which represents 4,400 flight crew members at the carrier, wanted to pay them from the moment they check-in until the moment they clock out, rather than just for the time their aircraft is in motion. WestJet has not disclosed details about 'the tentative agreement', which will be presented to the cabin crew for a vote of ratification. The union stated that it would be sharing details of the contract with its members before the vote. This tentative agreement represents a significant progress. The agreement evolves the "flight credit" system, by recognising more of the cabin crew's work and increasing compensation for it, Alia Hussain said. After talks broke down, the flight attendants of this airline, with a 30% domestic market share, went on strike Sunday. This labour unrest followed on from a four-day flight attendant strike at Air Canada, which stranded 500,000 passengers last August. This is also the latest attempt by flight attendants in the U.S., Canada and other countries to challenge compensation structures that pay cabin crew primarily when the aircraft is in motion. Cirium, an aviation analytics company, reports that WestJet has cancelled 615 flights since August 4. Onex Corp., the majority owner of the company, offered to increase wages by 13% this year, followed by 2.5% increases every year until 2029. It also offered extra pay for all the hours worked, which is equivalent to another 12 percent salary increase. WestJet announced on Sunday that around 250,000 passengers had their flights "cancelled" during a three-day long holiday weekend in Canada. In a press release, the airline said that it would "share further details about the return of operations" as soon as they became available. WestJet has a fleet size of 200 aircraft. The majority are Boeing 737 single aisle jets. (Reporting and editing by Mrigank Dahniwala in Bengaluru, Nandan Mandayam)
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Mali: Mining-backed fund can unlock up to 800 million dollars for infrastructure projects
Mali's finance minister has said that it could use the revenues generated by recent reforms in the mining sector to raise as much as 500 billion CFA Francs ($883.1m) to fund energy, water, and transport projects. This is part of an effort to convert higher mining revenue into infrastructure funding. The comments are the first sign of how the Mali military government plans to use the windfall it will receive from the overhaul of its mining code in 2023. This new code increased royalties and state stakes for mining projects, causing disputes with mining operators such as Canada's Barrick. In December, officials said that a government audit recovered 761 billion CFA?francs of alleged arrears owed by mining companies. Sources of funding Alousseni Sanou, Mali's finance minister, said on state television that the Energy, Water and Transport Infrastructure Development Fund had raised 109.14 Billion CFA Francs between January 1, 2020 and June 30, 2026. Sanou stated that the fund will be created in 2023 and funded exclusively by large-scale and small-scale mining permit holders. Contributions include 1% of quarterly revenue and 10% of ad valorem taxes for the first five years of operation, and then 2% thereafter. He said that the fund generates 50 billion CFA francs a year and could be leveraged in order to secure much larger financing for infrastructure. Dembele Madina Sissoko, Mali's Minister of Infrastructure and Transport, said that projects submitted to the fund include railway development, road construction, boat acquisitions, and projects related to state-owned Mali Airlines SA. Lately, resource producers in Africa have sought a greater share of mining profits. Ghana's Parliament approved last year the use of minerals revenues to fund an infrastructure program known as Big Push.
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Data shows that Russia's LNG imports from January to July were up by 11% on a year-over-year basis.
The LSEG preliminary data on Monday showed that Russia's exports grew by?11% from January to July compared with the corresponding period in the previous year. This was due to?supplies?from the Arctic LNG 2 Project. In the first seven months of this year, the same data shows that Arctic LNG 2 has supplied a total of 2.0 million tonnes. Total Russian LNG exports rose by 5% in July compared to the same period last year, to a total of?2.1million tons. Data also revealed that Russian LNG exports into Europe from January to July increased by 11% on an annual basis to?9.8 millions tons. In July, they fell to 0.81 million tonnes from 0.9 millions tons a year ago. The EU approved the final ban on Russian gas imports in January. Data showed that the total exports of Novatek's Yamal LNG Plant in the period from January to July were?11,0 million tons. This was the same amount as the previous year. Sakhalin-2, which is?controlled? by Gazprom?, exported 5.5 millions tons in the first 7 months of the year?, down from 5.6million tons?in the same time period last year? Gazprom delivered a?LNG cargo to China in July from its Portovaya LNG plant on the Baltic Sea. This was the third shipment to China from the plant since the start of the year. Andrew Osborn, Editor (Reporting)
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Planemakers, repair shops and other businesses take measures to conserve aircraft window in a tight market
Companies and industry sources said that planemakers, airlines, and repair shops were conserving aircraft glass after an incident occurred at a California factory. The incident 'worsened shortages for a part required for both new aircraft and regular maintenance. GKN Aerospace, a leading supplier of cockpit and passenger window products in the world, stopped production at its Los Angeles suburb factory late in May after an overheating fuel tank caused fears of explosion, forcing 50,000 residents to evacuate for several days. Sources and executives stated that the incident did not affect new plane production or airline operations but it caused delays in parts and concerns about the supply of passenger and cockpit windows. Boeing, a U.S. aircraft manufacturer, said that it had informed operators of steps to be taken in order to manage the window inventory after the incident. Boeing told airlines to only replace windows when they are necessary, and not for aesthetic reasons. Boeing stated in a press release that it "continues to work with our suppliers and is taking steps to mitigate any possible impacts." GKN is owned by Melrose Industries of London, which produces windows for a number of Boeing models, including the 737 MAX and rival Airbus A220 or A350 jets. Melrose announced on Friday that it was working to bring the partially open window factory back to full production before the end of 2026. These shortages are a sign of lingering post-pandemic weaknesses within the supply chain, despite noticeable improvements in part availability this year. Analysts and companies say that the demand for replacement windows from aircraft maintenance shops is increasing as planemakers increase production, echoing the engine shortage. Matteo Peraldo is an aerospace and defense partner with AlixPartners. He said, "There's a large aftermarket for window products." "The demand is not only production, but also the aftermarket." Airbus experienced A220 windows shortages but this did not delay production, according a source familiarized with the program. A spokesperson for A220 said that GKN Aerospace has restarted production and they have "seen positive progress to date toward a return of normal." The maintenance provider Lufthansa Technik stated that the supply of aircraft window for both major aircraft manufacturers has been stretched since a long time. Lufthansa Technik reported that "lead times?have increased substantially, while procurement costs are up markedly." Lufthansa Technik stated that the supply of windows for most Boeing aircraft is limited to "cases where the part?is absolutely necessary to fix an aircraft grounded." Private Jets Window shortages have also affected private jet manufacturers, including Bombardier Canada and Embraer Brazil. Repair shops are also affected. Eric Martel, CEO of Bombardier, told reporters on Thursday that the impact of the incident on window supply was one of the challenges in the supply chain "we had to manage." GKN Aerospace manufactures windows for Global 8000, the company's flagship jet. Source: Embraer, the private and commercial jet manufacturer, had already experienced supply issues for aircraft windows. The GKN incident is causing "fresh concern", according to a source. Kenn Ricci is the chairman of Flexjet, a private jet operator that flies Embraer Phenom?jets and Praetor?jets. He told a U.S. podcast Technology Business Programming Network, in February, that Embraer had stumbling blocks with windows. Ricci stated, "If you ask Embraer or (Executive Jets president) Mike Amalfitano why your deliveries are slipping, they will say that it is the windows." Flexjet declined comment. Embraer has not responded to multiple requests for comment. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed in Montreal, Allison Lampert)
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The war between Iran and ROI ushers in a golden age of oil refining. Bousso: It won't be long.
The Iran war has triggered record oil refining earnings that have boosted Big Oil's profits, giving new life to a business which many investors had written off. Refining is expected to produce strong returns over the next few years. However, structural changes in oil demand will cause its star to fade. Refining is the least glamorous part of the oil industry, despite its critical role in the global energy chain. Western oil majors have been steadily retreating from the sector for the last two decades. They were 'deterred' by high operating expenses, notoriously volatile profit margins, increasing carbon costs, and a growing competition from state-backed refining companies in the Middle East. This retreat intensified in the late 2010s in Europe as companies and governments bet more on the rapid adoption of electric vehicles to curb fuel demand in 2030, thus reducing the need for refining investments. Western oil giants saw their refining capacities shrink dramatically as a result. According to calculations by Open Interest, the combined refining volume for BP and Chevron, Exxon Mobil Shell, TotalEnergies, and Exxon Mobil fell from 16,4 million barrels a day in 2005 (representing around 22%) to 10,4 million bpd, or approximately 13% of global crude processing. Shell led the retreat by reducing its refinery interests from 40 to seven in the last five years. The refining climate has improved in the last year due to the increase in conflict in oil-rich areas. First, there's Iran. Refinery margins have reached record levels due to the combination of the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz for months, which has limited refiners access to crude oil and Tehran's attacks against refineries in the Middle East. Refineries in Asia were forced to reduce their operating rates due to the loss of Middle Eastern crude. China, which has huge crude stocks, chose to reduce its refining activities and stop fuel exports in order to compensate for the sharp drop in crude imports. These disruptions combined to remove around 5 million barrels a day, or 6% of global refining production before the war, in the second quarter. According to the International Energy Agency, global refinery runs averaged 78 million barrels per day, the lowest level since the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. The relentless drone attacks by the Ukrainians on Russian energy infrastructure has led to a sharp reduction in Russia's refinery output. This forced Moscow to ban exports of diesel. That announcement sent diesel prices soaring. Pricing Superpower The combined impact of both conflicts on the profitability of refining has been "dramatic". Big Oil has enormous pricing power due to the shortage of refined products and operators are encouraged to operate plants at full capacity. U.S. refineries - which became the world's biggest fuel suppliers during the war - operated at 97% capacity in the week ending July 24. This was well above the long-term average for around 90%. BP's refining indicator margin, a measure of global refining profit, climbed from $17 per barrel to $30 in the second quarter, up from $12 a quarter earlier and $17 during the first. Indicator has averaged 42 dollars per barrel in the third quarter. Exxon reported downstream profits of $5.5billion in the second quarter. This was its highest result since 2022. The record diesel production drove this. Chevron’s downstream earnings rose to $4.9billion, their highest level for the decade. Shell's products division reported an adjusted profit of $2.5 billion, its highest in a decade. Its refining network was operating at 102% utilisation during the second quarter. Patrick Pouyanne, the Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies, summed up it well when he told investors late last month that their refining division had performed "exceptionally." BP will report its earnings on Tuesday. CAN IT LAST? The question is when. The fuel market would be impacted by a sustainable solution to the U.S./Iran conflict, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz in its entirety and eventual recovery of Chinese refinery activity. But when this might happen is still unknown. It is clear that the problems of this industry cannot be fixed immediately. Repairing the damage to dozens refineries in Russia and the Middle East will take many months and even years. Global spare refining capacity is extremely low. Demand is also a positive factor. Concerns about energy security have been rekindled by the Iran war. To protect themselves from future supply shocks, many governments are expanding their strategic storage facilities. The first step for governments is to replenish the stocks that were depleted by the conflict. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped by 5.1 millions barrels per day during the second quarter. They are expected to drop by another 2.2 million bpd by the third quarter. The rebuilding of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories will take years, creating a persistent demand. Alan Gelder is the senior vice president of refining for Wood Mackenzie. He expects that refining margins will remain high and utilisation rates will be high through the end decade. This is due to the continued growth of?oil and the limited pipeline of refining projects. The party won't last The boom is a symptom of underlying fragility. War, damaged infrastructure, and scarcity are the main reasons for today's windfall profits, not a structural improvement of industry fundamentals. The world's capacity has been reduced faster than the demand. This?might?not be the case forever. Many countries that have limited refining capacity are now re-evaluating whether they require more local processing capability. Australia is one country that has already begun to consider such plans. Over time, these investments could lead to a new surge of capacity that would eventually lead a surplus. Oil majors are aware of this fact. The decline of the refinery sector may be slowed by a few years of high margins. They are unlikely to reverse the decline. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
The nascent German economic recovery is threatened by low Rhine water levels
Analysts warned on Monday that the Rhine's record low water levels could halt German growth and drag Europe's largest economy back into stagnation, just as it was showing signs of a much-anticipated recovery. Germany and much of Europe have experienced successive heatwaves with little rain this summer. This has led to low water levels in waterways such as the Rhine. The Rhine is an important shipping route, especially for grains, minerals, refined oil products, and coal. The shallow water makes it difficult for cargo ships to carry more than 20% of their load. This forces them to ship multiple shipments, which is costly and unwelcome. Data released last week showed that the German Gross Domestic Product grew faster than anticipated in the second quarter.
The low water levels could reduce the third quarter GDP growth by 0.1% to 0.2% according to economist Stefan Kooths, of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He warned that they would not quickly return above the critical threshold.
He said that the low water levels would continue to affect transport capacity for some time in the next month.
THE DROUGHT IS WORSENING A LONG-TERM TREND OF WATER LOSS According to the Environment Ministry, the lack of rain this summer has exacerbated a trend that has been in place for 25 years. Germany has lost 60 billion cubic meters of water due to climate changes.
Carsten Schneider, the German Environment Minister, warned that if nothing is done, water shortages could cost Germany EUR625billion ($714billion) by 2050 or EUR25billion annually.
Carsten Brzeski is global head of macro - at ING.
He said that the warm, dry weather of summer has caused water levels to drop to a record low in major transportation waterways. This could have an impact on industrial supply chains as well as activity in construction.
According to data released by Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration on Monday, the water level at the Rhine river chokepoint in Kaub will fall to a new record low of 18.09 cm (7.09 inches) this Friday. Marc Schattenberg, an economist with Deutsche Bank Research, stated that the economic impact of this situation will be determined by 'how long transport costs remain high and whether there are extended shipping disruptions at places like Kaub. Thyssenkrupp Steel had already suspended the shipping of raw material to Duisburg, a western city in Germany, with its own vessels last month.
The German chemical company BASF stated on Monday that while they have maintained waterway transport 'to date', isolated supply bottlenecks could occur if 'current weather conditions continue.
The German economy is already very fragile, and if the drought persists, it will put even more strain on the German one, said Dirk Binding. He was an expert with the German chamber of commerce, DIHK. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Anastasiia Kozolova, Rene Wagner, Michael Hogan; additional reporting by Maria Martinez).
(source: Reuters)