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The nascent German economic recovery is threatened by low Rhine water levels

Analysts warned on Monday that the Rhine's record low water levels could halt German growth and drag Europe's largest economy back into stagnation, just as it was showing signs of a much-anticipated recovery. Germany and much of Europe have experienced successive heatwaves with little rain this summer. This has led to low water levels in waterways such as the Rhine. The Rhine is an important shipping route, especially for grains, minerals, refined oil products, and coal. The shallow water makes it difficult for cargo ships to carry more than 20% of their load. This forces them to ship multiple shipments, which is costly and unwelcome. Data released last week showed that the German Gross Domestic Product grew faster than anticipated in the second quarter.

The low water levels could reduce the third quarter GDP growth by 0.1% to 0.2% according to economist Stefan Kooths, of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He warned that they would not quickly return above the critical threshold.

He said that the low water levels would continue to affect transport capacity for some time in the next month.

THE DROUGHT IS WORSENING A LONG-TERM TREND OF WATER LOSS According to the Environment Ministry, the lack of rain this summer has exacerbated a trend that has been in place for 25 years. Germany has lost 60 billion cubic meters of water due to climate changes.

Carsten Schneider, the German Environment Minister, warned that if nothing is done, water shortages could cost Germany EUR625billion ($714billion) by 2050 or EUR25billion annually.

Carsten Brzeski is global head of macro - at ING.

He said that the warm, dry weather of summer has caused water levels to drop to a record low in major transportation waterways. This could have an impact on industrial supply chains as well as activity in construction.

According to data released by Germany's Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration on Monday, the water level at the Rhine river chokepoint in Kaub will fall to a new record low of 18.09 cm (7.09 inches) this Friday. Marc Schattenberg, an economist with Deutsche Bank Research, stated that the economic impact of this situation will be determined by 'how long transport costs remain high and whether there are extended shipping disruptions at places like Kaub. Thyssenkrupp Steel had already suspended the shipping of raw material to Duisburg, a western city in Germany, with its own vessels last month.

The German chemical company BASF stated on Monday that while they have maintained waterway transport 'to date', isolated supply bottlenecks could occur if 'current weather conditions continue.

The German economy is already very fragile, and if the drought persists, it will put even more strain on the German one, said Dirk Binding. He was an expert with the German chamber of commerce, DIHK. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier, Anastasiia Kozolova, Rene Wagner, Michael Hogan; additional reporting by Maria Martinez).

(source: Reuters)