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Maguire: How to monitor the stress on European power systems during heatwaves

Scores of European cities are experiencing record-breaking temperatures, which is causing a surge in cooling system demand and forcing utilities to reduce power production.

Electricity grids in the region are already struggling to cope with rising demand from data centers, electric vehicles and heat pumps.

This is how to track the impact of the heatwave on Europe's electricity systems. Prices and generation mix are constantly changing as a result.

PRICE SIGNALS

Day-ahead prices and intraday price ranges are available on many of Europe's biggest power markets. These provide valuable clues about expected system conditions and can reveal multiple things at once.

Demand is expected to continue to be strong, while the supply will remain tight.

The so-called merit order system can reveal the power source that is setting the marginal prices for production in key markets by analyzing the rise in power prices.

On most European electricity markets, the most costly power source to meet demand determines the price of the "whole market". This is usually gas-fired power plants, but it can also be nuclear, hydro, and coal power systems.

Day-ahead high prices can indicate which technology sets the marginal price on which market and what fuel and carbon cost will be fed through each system when power firms adjust output to balance market demands. Subscribers of market data providers like LSEG can track energy prices for power applications. Websites such as EUenergy.live or electricitymaps.com provide more recent data about prices and generation mix.

Power FLOWs

Imports and Exports play a major role in the European power market, with countries like France and Norway being large suppliers of electricity to their neighboring countries.

LSEG, for example, offers subscribers real-time information on power trading across borders, and the International Energy Agency provides tools that measure the direction of the trade between key nations.

A sudden outage in a key exporter nation can have far-reaching effects throughout Europe. It can also trigger a rise in prices in the region if large exporters are unable to supply for long periods.

OPERATOR ALERTS

Grid operator notices that inform market participants about potential network problems must be kept up to date by power market trackers.

Heat-related problems can include voltage control issues. These occur when air conditioner demand peaks and supply through critical infrastructure, such as transmission lines, drops.

Grid operators can also send alerts that call for a reduction in consumption by key users, or during certain time periods. This is a way to monitor the health of important networks.

The main French operator of nuclear plants has issued a warning this week that the high temperatures are reducing the amount of river water available to cool their reactors. This is forcing them to cut back on production.

This week, the United Kingdom's grid operator issued a very rare notice about electricity margins. It warned that there may be fewer supplies than usual as demand for total system power increases.

The extreme heat warnings that are in effect for the remainder of this week across Europe (including the UK), will put additional strain on the regional power grids, which can affect traders, utilities, and businesses.

The signals are there for those who pay attention: rising prices, changing?power flows and generation mixes as well as alerts from grid operators.

The author is a columnist and his opinions are expressed here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)