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The robotaxi industry will be shaped by the radical differences between Tesla and Waymo.

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, told investors in June that the driverless taxis of the company would be available for "half of the U.S. population" by the end this year.

Alphabet Waymo, the U.S. leader for autonomous ride-hailing, launched a similar service in Phoenix eight years ago. It operates in areas that have about 3% U.S. residents.

Musk's statements about Tesla's robotaxis expanding at a "hyperexponential" rate contrast with Waymo, which takes a deliberate approach before entering new markets. Musk believes Tesla's use of cameras and AI will allow it to scale faster than Waymo, which uses more sensors and high definition mapping. These differing strategies will have a profound impact on the early rankings in the emerging autonomous-driving market. Some analysts and investors believe that the market could grow to a multi-trillion dollar one over the next fifteen years.

Waymo’s expansion plan involves mapping out new cities and gradually introducing autonomous ride-hailing, after testing it with employees and drivers as passengers. Tesla claims its robotaxis are powered by a different autonomous techniqe than Waymo, which allows them to skip much of the tedious preparation work. These cars, which are still in testing, use AI to react to road conditions like a human. Tesla claims that this requires less extensive road testing and mapping.

Musk said in an April conference call that once the technology is able to work in some cities, it can be used anywhere in America. Musk has described Waymo as "fragile" and said its expansion is "limited". Many investors have embraced Musk's vision. Analysts attribute the majority of Tesla stock market value to its autonomous driving capabilities. Investors are betting that Tesla can scale up much faster than Waymo. Robotaxi could be a major growth engine for Tesla if it is successful in its rapid commercial expansion.

We interviewed 12 current and former executives in the industry, as well as regulators, police officers, and city planners, to compare Tesla's initial expansion efforts with those made by Waymo. The differences between their technical and marketing strategies were striking.

Former Waymo executives and current Waymo executives agree that the market-by-market mapping and testing prior to expansion is crucial to ensure safety. This helps factor in the particularities of each city’s roads, such as steep inclines on San Francisco's streets, which make it hard to see ahead.

Aman Nalavade said, "We need to really understand the core components of each of these towns," in an interview. There are a lot more risks involved in getting this wrong.

Musk has also spoken about the importance safety. Musk said in a statement last month that he didn't want to risk anything, so he would proceed cautiously.

Tesla has not responded to any requests for comment.

CONTRASTING TECH

Tesla and Waymo use AI for autonomous driving. Waymo uses a more step-by-step approach, where the system gathers data from high-definition mapping and advanced sensors in order to identify objects and plan its vehicle's route.

Tesla says that its system is more human-like in the way it makes driving decisions. The company claims to use an AI method in which video taken by the car's cameras are interpreted by software, and then instantly translated into driving choices. This is unlike the waymo system.

Waymo experimented with some aspects of Tesla’s approach, but stated in a research report last year that its performance has "challenges" and "limitations". Musk has set a deadline of "millions" of Teslas autonomously driving by the second half next year. This compares to Waymo fleet of approximately 2,000 vehicles. Tesla launched its pilot program in Texas back in June. It is now awaiting approval from Arizona, and it hopes to expand into other states such as Nevada and Florida. Tesla is under pressure to fulfill these promises because its electric vehicle business is facing headwinds. The company's global vehicle sales are down, with a steep drop in Europe. If Musk's robotaxi timeline is not met, it would delay the creation of a new revenue stream.

Waymo, the only ride-hailing company in the United States that offers a fully autonomous service for a fee to everyone, is unique. It is available in parts of Los Angeles and Phoenix, as well as Atlanta, Atlanta, Austin, and San Francisco Bay Area.

Waymo tests its technology in virtual simulators and on closed courses, including a 113-acre California track, before expanding into new markets.

It took more than three year for Phoenix to offer test rides in which a driver was in the driver's seat. In 2020, the public could pay for driverless ride hailing. Waymo took almost four years to open autonomous service at any time in Phoenix's terminals. This was August 2024.

Waymo claims it will reduce the time for testing in new cities, as its autonomous technology becomes more experienced and learns from previous experiences.

Bank of America analysts estimated that Waymo lost $1.2 billion to $1.5 billion in 2017. Analysts expect Waymo to be profitable in the future as vehicle costs drop and ridership increases.

Morningstar analysts predicted in a report published in March that Waymo will have a rapid ramp-up over the next several years, while Tesla's initial robotaxi rollout would be "slower" because its software would not be "ready." Morningstar anticipates Tesla to launch fully-autonomous robotaxis by 2020 and surpass Waymo’s ride-hailing share by the end the decade.

"A HUGE CONCERN"

Even though Waymo has been meticulous in its approach to analyzing new markets, some city officials have complained about the problems it has encountered.

Austin Police Lieutenant William White said that Waymo's vehicles have been known to ignore the hand signals of officers and drive in dangerous situations.

In May, the driver of a Waymo car drove into floodwaters and had to get out. White said that this is a major concern for us. If that person had been killed, we would have faced a serious crime.

A Waymo vehicle repeatedly tried to get around an officer blocking the road during a charity event in downtown Austin last year. White said that the police eventually disabled it by wrapping tape around its sensor.

White explained that Austin police had to develop a new traffic citation system to deal with repeated incidents where Waymo cars froze up and blocked traffic. Since March, the police have issued three traffic citations. The process of issuing citations to a driverless car can be so lengthy that officers often avoid doing it.

White stated that if they pursued it each time, there would have been hundreds of citations.

As the service is still in its early stages, there has been limited interaction between the department and Tesla's Robotaxi service.

Chris Bonelli, a spokesperson for Waymo, said that the company had been "robustly engaged" with Austin fire and police officials for over two years. Waymo "takes all observations and concerns serious" and uses this feedback "to improve our technology," said Chris Bonelli, a Waymo spokesperson.

SOOTHING SKEPTICS Besides technical challenges, autonomous vehicle firms must navigate a patchwork regulations and reassure community leaders who may be apprehensive of driverless cars.

Waymo, for example, began meeting with local officials over a year prior to its launch in March and participated in city-organized meetings, including those with representatives of the Texas School for the Deaf. Before the launch, school representatives rode in Waymo cars.

Peter Bailey, the school superintendent, said that he met with Tesla representatives a few weeks before Tesla's launch in June. He learned of this timing through news reports. A reporter saw a Tesla robotaxi traveling between 40-45 mph near the school in a zone where the speed limit was 35 mph. The sign nearby warned drivers to be aware of deaf pedestrians.

Bailey declined to comment about the community outreach strategies of Waymo or Tesla. He stated that he expected "all drivers to obey posted speed limits, including autonomous cars, and drive with caution in school zones." Waymo's experiences show how different regulations across the country can stymie expansion plans. Washington, D.C., where the company hoped to launch its autonomous vehicle in 2026, is one example. However, it's not clear if the city can pass necessary regulations on time.

Before moving forward, the D.C. City Council waited years for the transportation department to submit a report on recommendations for commercial rules for driverless vehicles. Charles Allen, a councilmember, stated that while the regulations could be ready by 2026, the timeline for their passage is not known.

Waymo hired three outside lobbying companies and circulated online petitions asking residents to "help Bring Waymo to DC!"

D.C. Department of Transportation says Tesla hasn't reached out. Reporting by Chris Kirkham, Norihiko Shrouzu, in Austin, Texas, and Rachael LEVY in Washington. Additional reporting by Abhirup RAY in San Francisco. Editing by Mike Colias, Matthew Lewis.

(source: Reuters)