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Trans Mountain oil pipeline growth pushes rivals to cut rates, in the meantime

Pipelines that traditionally carry Canadian crude to the U.S. are cutting rates and looking to deliver different grades of crude oil due to rising competition from the freshly expanded Trans Mountain pipeline.

The moves will temporarily cut the expense of transferring some of Canada's heavy crude to the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast next month. U.S. imports of Canadian crude struck a record in July as Trans Mountain growth (TMX) volumes grew.

Shipments on TMX began in May, sending out up to 890,000 barrels daily (bpd) to Canada's Pacific Coast. About 80% of the volumes are contracted, leaving 20% available for area deliveries.

With more oil moving on TMX, Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge said in August it will cut its tariffs for September by 11% per barrel on heavy crude carrying on its Mainline system. The 3 million-bpd system ships the bulk of Canada's crude exports from Edmonton to the U.S. and is one of the main rivals to TMX.

The company is not rationing pipeline area for September for the first time in over a year, with sufficient capacity offered to cover all chosen barrels.

Enbridge said it expects Mainline will be well made use of for the remainder of the year, attributing the reduction in volumes to routine oil manufacturer and refiner upkeep.

We are beginning to see the TMX effect play out for the Mainline, and therefore for systems that carry Canadian barrels to the U.S. Gulf Coast, stated Dylan White, a North American crude markets expert with researcher Wood Mackenzie.

Enbridge's 190,000-bpd Spearhead and 720,000-bpd Flanagan South pipelines that deliver crude from the Mainline to Cushing storage center in Oklahoma could likely lose volumes, analysts said. The 950,000-bpd Seaway, jointly owned by Enbridge and Enterprise Products Partners, which ships oil from Cushing to the U.S. Gulf Coast, could also see lower circulations.

Seaway and Flanagan pipelines stay well made use of, Enbridge said.

Pipelines like MPLX's Capline, a key conduit for Canadian heavy crude, will likely carry more light crude from the Bakken oilfield in North Dakota to offset the loss of Canadian heavy grades, experts said. The 1.5 million-bpd pipeline was once the biggest crude oil pipeline in the U.S. before it was reversed in 2021 to carry petroleum from north to south. MPLX declined to comment on Capline item motions.

SHORT-TERM IMPACT

Delays in TMX's completion supplied ample time for Canadian manufacturers to ramp up supply, and volumes on rival pipelines are likely to pick up as Canadian oil output is expected to grow quickly.

A combination of TMX coming online behind anticipated and Canadian supply ticking greater ... has raised overall usage on broader Canadian outbound pipelines, even as TMX has expanded overall capability, Wood Mackenzie's White said.

Output will rise about 500,000 bpd in 2025 from 2023, balancing out the extra capacity added by TMX, according to experts from energy facilities firm East Daley Analytics.

Excess pipeline space will be filled fairly soon, said Kristy Oleszek, director of energy analytics at East Daley.

(source: Reuters)