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Urals oil differentials hold firm despite softer freight rates
On Monday, the difference between Brent and Urals crudes increased as freight rates for Russian oils fell due to higher vessel availability. However, traders expect that this trend will change in light of new sanctions. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, threatened on Monday to impose sanctions on buyers of Russian goods if Russia does not reach a peace agreement within 50 days. This was a significant shift in policy prompted by frustrations with Moscow. Costs for shipping Urals oil to India from the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk or Ust-Luga dropped to $5 to $5.3 million, per one-way shipment, using an Aframax oil tanker. This tanker can carry up to 730,000 barrels in average, in August. In June, it was between $5.5 and $5.7 millions. PLATTS WINDOW SOCAR tried to sell 650,000 barrels Azeri BTC from Ceyhan between July 24 and 28 at Brent plus $3.20 a barrel but failed to find a buyer. On Monday, there were no bids or offers made on Urals or CPC Blend. * Oil prices fell on Monday as investors considered new threats by Trump to impose sanctions on Russian oil buyers that could affect global supply. (Reporting and Editing by Matthew Lewis).
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Los Angeles seaport imports in June rebound as tariff concerns loom over US Holiday Season
Fears of increased tariffs led retailers to stock up goods in preparation for the holiday season. Last month, the Port of Los Angeles received 470 450 20-foot units (TEUs), after the U.S. and China reached a truce on tariffs. This was an increase of almost 10% over a year earlier and contributed to a record volume for the entire month. Port of Los Angeles Director Gene Seroka. Seroka stated that the June surge "highlights tariff whipsaw effects" caused by U.S. policy. The result for last month was 32% higher than May, when short lived 145% import tariffs on China hammered that trade. He said that the Chinese manufacturers should have already received orders for holiday cargo. What's on the way is what you're going get. "It's too late for you to negotiate an order at this time." U.S. Ocean imports will likely start to drop later this summer due to possible tariff increases and the timing of orders. The National Retail Federation has predicted double-digit percentage drops in U.S. Imports from August to November. Donald Trump threatened on Saturday to impose a 30 percent tariff on imports coming from Mexico and the European Union starting August 1. This is the latest in an escalation in his trade war. Bobby Djavaheri, president of Yedi Houseware in Los Angeles, said that the company has already raised its prices by about 10%. It also absorbed the remaining tariff costs. Air fryers, rice cooks and other kitchen items made in China are supplied to retailers such as TJ Maxx and Ross Dress for Less. It prioritizes products, also known as stock-keeping units (SKUs), that are popular and generate the most profit. Djavaheri stated that "half the SKUs will not be available in this year" when it comes to Yedi small electronics.
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New York governor says World Cup prime target for drone attacks
New York Governor Kathy Hochul demanded on Monday that President Donald Trump boost federal defenses to combat drone attacks. She said events such as the World Cup and U.S.250th Anniversary celebrations were "prime targets." She said that the New York area would be a focal point for many high-profile events next summer. These include the World Cup, the flotillas of Tall Ships and International Naval Review as well as the largest Macy's ever fireworks show. Hochul wrote in a Monday letter to Trump that "we need a comprehensive federal policy which not only improves the detection of drones at a national level, but also offers robust and multi-layered mitigation strategies." She said that the government must do more to protect "critical infrastructure" such as population centers, utilities and military assets. Hochul called on the White House to act, citing several incidents that occurred last year as well as the increasing use of drones during the conflict in Ukraine and in other trouble spots in the world. The White House made no immediate comment. The White House did not immediately comment. The FIFA World Cup Final will take place on July 19, 2026 in East Rutherford New Jersey, approximately 13 miles away from New York City. Hochul stated that an attack on New York's strategic military infrastructure and critical infrastructure poses a grave danger to the United States. The federal government is not prepared and is poorly positioned to detect and mitigate drone threats. States are also hampered by a lack in legislative authority, and by actions by the Federal Aviation Administration. Michael Kratsios of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy said last month that Trump is also looking to deal with the "growing threat of terrorists and foreign misuse of UAVs in U.S. airspace." airspace." He stated that the country is "securing its borders from national security threat, including in airspace, with large public events like the Olympics and World Cup on horizon." Los Angeles will be hosting the Olympics during the summer of 2028. (Reporting and editing by David Shepardson)
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Iranian lawmaker: Strait of Hormuz is still being reviewed, and no decision has been made yet about closing it
In comments carried on Monday by Iran's official media, Esmail Kosari, a hardline Iranian legislator, said that any closure of Strait of Hormuz is still being reviewed but that no decision has been made. Kosari was quoted by the Iranian Parliament as saying, "Military actions concerning the Strait of Hormuz are complete, but a decision has not yet been taken regarding its (closure). The matter is still being reviewed." He did not specify what military measures may have been in mind. During the 12-day air conflict between Israel and Iran, speculations were made about the possibility that Iran would close the waterway through which a fifth or so of the world's oil and gas shipments travel. The Strait is located between Oman, Iran, and the Gulf of Oman in the south. It also connects the Gulf to the Arabian Sea. Iran has threatened to shut it down for years, but never actually followed through with that threat. Kosari continued, "We are currently reviewing the situation and can implement whenever necessary." Reporting by Parisa hafezi and Elwely Elwelly, Editing by Toby Chopra & Alison Williams
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Farmers say that more sun is needed to boost the main cocoa crop in Ivory Coast.
Farmers said that although rainfall was below average in the main cocoa-growing areas of Ivory Coast, soil moisture was sufficient to maintain strong flowering. Ivory Coast is the top cocoa producing country in the world. Its rainy season officially runs from April until mid-November. The pace of flowering was described by growers as the fastest in the last three years. The trees were healthy, and the green leaves indicated that they are in good health. However, more sunlight is needed to increase the main crop from October to March. Farmers are expecting a good main crop harvest, but warned that the weather conditions in August and Septembre will be crucial, as cloudy skies, lack of sunshine, or excessive rainfall could cause disease, and reduce yields for harvests from October to March. The trees are in full bloom. "We need more sunlight because the air has a cool temperature," said Kouassi Kouame a farmer in the west. Last week, the area received 3.7 millimeters of rainfall, which is 25.8mm less than the average for the past five years. In the east, Abengourou and Agboville, rains were also below average. Farmers in the region said that enough pods will be harvested by mid-August, and they expect an early start to their next main crop. Farmers in central and centre-western Daloa, Bongouanou, and Yamoussoukro regions, where rainfall is below average, say that more sunlight is crucial to the development of young fruits. Emile Kassi is a farmer near Daloa where last week's rainfall was 16.8 mm less than average, 6.1 mm. The average weekly temperature ranged between 23.6 and 26.6 degrees Celsius. Reporting by Loucoumane Courlibaly, Editing by Ayen deng Bior
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Traders say that although the price of Russian Urals oil has fallen, new sanctions could change this.
In July and August, freight rates for Russian oil from Baltic Sea ports into India fell as more tankers became available. However, this could change in the future if new sanctions were imposed against Moscow, according to two traders. The European Union has finalised its 18th package of sanctions against Russia. This may include a price cap for Russian oil. The cap was introduced in 2022 and bans the trade of Russian crude oil transported in tankers at a price above $60 per barrel. The EU could decide to tighten the price caps in its new sanctions and push oil prices below $60 per barrel. Early in April, the global oil price fell, pushing the price of Urals Crude in Russia's port below $60 per barrel. This allowed more Western shipping companies, including freight, to resume their services for Russian oil. Costs for shipping Urals oil to India from the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk or Ust-Luga dropped to $5 to $5.3 million, per one-way shipment, using an Aframax oil tanker. This tanker can carry up to 730,000 barrels, in average, down from $5.5 to $5.7 million between June and July. Data showed that the price of Urals oil was below $60 per barrel last week. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, plans to make "a major statement" about Russia on Monday. This has led to speculation that it could include a possible strengthening of sanctions against Moscow. One trader said that the Russian oil market has been "frozen" ever since Friday last week, following this announcement. After the new round of U.S. energy sanctions announced in January, rates for shipping Russian crude oil rose dramatically. Russian oil sellers had to find new tankers to replace the vessels that were affected by the sanctions. The cost of shipping Russian crude oil from Baltic ports to India was between $4.7 and $4.9 millions in early January. Reporting by Jane Merriman (Editing by Jane Merriman).
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Air India CEO: Investigation into Ahmedabad crash raises questions
Air India CEO, in a memo dated Monday, said that a preliminary investigation into last month's crash of an Air India passenger plane which killed 260 people raised additional questions and that the investigation was far from being concluded. According to the preliminary report released on Saturday by India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau, confusion was present in the cockpit just before the Boeing Dreamliner crashed. Air India CEO Campbell Wilson stated in a memo that the report "triggered a whole new round of speculations in the media... It provided greater clarity as well as opened up additional questions." He said: "The preliminary investigation has not yet concluded, and I urge everyone to refrain from drawing premature conclusions." The memo stated that the preliminary report had found no mechanical or other maintenance issues and that all necessary maintenance was completed. Shortly after takeoff, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner departing from Ahmedabad in India bound for London began to lose thrust. It sank shortly thereafter. The 242 passengers and 19 people on the ground, except for one, were all killed. In the final moments of the flight, a pilot is heard asking another pilot on the cockpit recorder why he has cut off the fuel. The report stated that "the other pilot replied that he had not done so." The report added that both fuel cutoff switches on the plane's engines were flipped nearly simultaneously but did not specify how. The preliminary report did not suggest any immediate action by Boeing or GE whose engines were installed on the aircraft. ALPA India, the Indian pilots' representative at the Montreal-based International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations (IFALPA), has denied any presumption of a pilot's error and demanded a "fair fact-based investigation". Campbell wrote in his memo that "the pilots had passed the mandatory pre-flight alcohol breathalyzer and there were not observations regarding their medical status." Sumeet S. Sabharwal (56), the pilot in command of the Air India aircraft, had 15,638 total hours of flying experience. According to the Indian Government, he was also an Air India Instructor. Clive Kunder was his co-pilot, a 32-year old man with 3,403 total hours of experience. Air India is under increased scrutiny in multiple areas following the crash. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency announced on July 4 that it would be investigating Air India Express after a report revealed that the airline had failed to replace engine parts in an Airbus A320 within the timeframe required and falsified documents to show compliance. (Reporting by Aditya Kalra in New Delhi and Chandini Monnappa in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Hritam Mukherjee; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Aidan Lewis)
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Air India CEO: Investigation into Ahmedabad crash raises questions
Air India's CEO stated in a Monday memo that a preliminary investigation into last month's crash of 260-passenger Air India jet raises more questions and that the investigation is not over. According to the preliminary report released on Saturday by India's Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau, there was confusion in the cockpit just before the crash of Boeing Dreamliner. Air India CEO Campbell Wilson stated in a memo that the report "caused a new round speculations in the media... It provided greater clarity as well as opened up additional questions." He said: "The preliminary investigation has not yet concluded, and I urge everyone to refrain from drawing premature conclusions." The memo stated that the preliminary report had found no mechanical or other maintenance issues and that all necessary maintenance was completed. Shortly after takeoff, the Boeing 787 Dreamliner departing from Ahmedabad in India bound for London began to lose thrust. It sank shortly thereafter. The 242 passengers and 19 people on the ground, except for one, were all killed. AAIB's report states that in the final moments of the flight, a pilot could be heard asking another on the cockpit recorder why he had cut off the fuel. The report stated that "the other pilot replied that he didn't do so." The report added that both fuel cutoff switches on the plane's engines were flipped nearly simultaneously but did not specify how. The preliminary report did not suggest that Boeing or GE would take immediate action, whose engines had been installed on the aircraft. ALPA India, the Indian pilots' association at the International Federation of Air Line Pilots' Associations in Montreal, has denied any presumption of error by a pilot and demanded a "fair fact-based investigation". Campbell wrote in his memo that "the pilots had passed the mandatory pre-flight alcohol breathalyzer and there were not observations regarding their medical status." Sumeet S. Sabharwal (56), the pilot in command of the Air India aircraft, had 15,638 total hours of flying experience. According to the Indian Government, he was also an Air India Instructor. Clive Kunder was his co-pilot, a 32-year old man with 3,403 total hours of experience. Air India is under increased scrutiny in multiple areas following the crash. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency announced on July 4 that it would be investigating Air India Express after a report revealed that the airline had falsified documents to show compliance and failed to replace engine parts as required. (Reporting by Aditya Kalra in New Delhi and Chandini Monnappa in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Hritam Mukherjee; Editing by Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Aidan Lewis)
Can Trump "take back" the Panama Canal
Donald Trump has repeatedly said that he wants "to take back" the Panama Canal, but hasn't given specifics on how he will do it. This article explains the history of the canal and the laws that govern it. Why is the Panama Canal important?
The Panama Canal is located in the narrowest part between North and South America. It is one of most important waterways around the globe. The canal recorded 11,240 crossings in 2014, totaling over 235.5 million tonnes of cargo.
More than two thirds of the cargo that passes through the canal comes from the U.S. or is headed there.
Ships would have to travel around the southern tip South America in order to reach the Pacific Ocean if the Panama Canal was blocked.
In response to pressure from Panama and the unrest there over U.S. ownership, the U.S. signed treaties in 1977 to hand the canal over to Panama.
WHAT HAS TRUMP COMMENTED ON THE CANAL?
Trump says Panama charges excessive tolls to U.S. vessels to pass through the Canal, calling them "ridiculous", and "very unfair".
Fees are based on the type and size of vessels, plus an auction for vessels arriving without reservations. There is also a variable surcharge and water surcharge. The U.S. military ships are given priority for passage but commercial vessels do not get lower rates.
Trump also said that the U.S. must retake the canal from China, who controls it and may use the waterway for American interests.
This claim is not supported by any evidence, despite the fact that Chinese companies have invested significant amounts of money in Panama. Some U.S. legislators and maritime experts believe this could give Beijing influence over the operation of the canal.
A group supported by U.S. Investment Company BlackRock agreed to purchase a controlling interest in ports on both sides of the canal, from a Hong Kong based conglomerate. Trump hails this deal as a first step towards reclaiming canal.
Trump said to the U.S. Congress in March that "my administration will reclaim the Panama Canal and we've started doing it."
In a post on social media, Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino stated that "the Panama Canal was not being reclaimed."
What are the laws that govern the canal?
Panama Canal Authority is an autonomous agency under the supervision of the Panamanian Government that owns and operates the Panama Canal.
Panama has pledged that it will charge all nations "just, reasonable, and equitable" transit charges under the Treaty Concerning the Neutrality of the Panama Canal. The three-page treaty does not provide any further explanation of these terms or a mechanism for enforcement.
Although the U.S. judiciary has a ambiguous authority to interpret treaties, it is not standardized.
Both nations could take their disputes to the United Nations International Court of Justice. However, that court does not have any way of enforcing it's decisions.
Trump is unlikely to ask for UN assistance, after repeatedly criticizing it as ineffective, weak and unfair to the U.S.
What if a country tries to take the canal by force?
A foreign power that attempted to forcefully take over the canal would be in violation of international law.
Both the U.S.A. and Panama have signed treaties requiring them to defend their canals against any threats to neutrality. They are allowed to act unilaterally to achieve this.
A treaty amendment clarifies the U.S.'s inability to interfere with Panama's internal affairs, or to undermine its territorial integrity or political independence.
To prepare for possible attacks against the canal, the U.S. Southern Command conducts regular military exercises in conjunction with Panama and other regional countries.
The exercises don't include scenarios in which the U.S. invades Panama. (Reporting from Jack Queen in New York; additional reporting by Sarah Morland, Marianna Pararaga and Nick Zieminski. Editing by Noelee Walder and Nick Zieminski.
(source: Reuters)