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The outlook for US natural gas in the US is largely dependent on three key shale formations: Maguire
Natural gas is used to fuel power plants, homes and factories in the U.S., as well as the booming LNG export industry. The supply of natural gas needed to fuel all these uses comes from a small, ever-narrower portion of America's shales patch. The mismatch between an?increasing number of consumers and a shrinking base of supplies could lead to a structural crunch in the U.S. gas market, which would trigger periods of price volatility and supply stress. Gas prices that are too high would hurt the U.S. economy, and could derail the efforts to make the U.S. a leader in AI and data-driven applications. Gas producers in the United States are therefore under intense pressure to ensure that supply matches demand. SCRUTINY SHALE According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, shale deposits are responsible for 75% of U.S. natural gas supplies. The growth of the biggest shale deposits slowed dramatically in the last few years, as the basins matured. This was due to reduced pressure on the deposit and increased interference with wells from congested drilling spacing. Gas prices that continue to rise would encourage producers to increase their efforts. After more than a decade, the best gas wells are likely to have been tapped. This means that the majority of production efforts are likely to remain concentrated on the basins which have provided the lion's portion of new U.S. gas supplies in the last decade, even if the extraction rates continue their decline. THE BIG 3. In terms of production, the top three shale formations are the Marcellus in Pennsylvania and Appalachia, the Haynesville in Louisiana and Texas and the Permian, in west Texas. According to the EIA these plays will account for 74% or 22.2 trillion cubic foot of shale-gas production in the United States by 2025. In 2016, the combined production of these same deposits amounted to around 8.5 trillion cubic foot, which means that output has increased 161% in that decade. This?growth rate is compared to a 17% increase in other notable shale deposits and a 48.8% increase in the total U.S. Gas Supplies over that time period. It clearly shows the enormous influence these seminal deposits had on the U.S. Gas Sector. As the old saying goes, "what goes up, must come down", and the combined growth of the 'Big 3' has dropped rapidly from its previous peaks. Since 2022, the average annual increase in gas production has slowed down to 6%. The annual growth rate for?total gas production in the U.S. has been around 3% since then. Different Strokes The Big 3 are often lumped into one group when discussing shale. However, there are important differences between them in terms of their deposit characteristics and growth limitations. Marcellus Shale, a massive deposit in Pennsylvania, produced nearly one-third of the shale gas supplied to the United States last year. It has also consistently provided the lowest cost gas for the past decade. Marcellus's relatively shallow shale depths and thick, consistent formations are ideal for modern gas extraction, while its proximity with large East Coast populations centers makes it profitable to distribute its gas. Even after a decade-long continuous depletion of reserves, exploration firm Kingdom Exploration estimates that between 50 and 70% of technically recoverable natural gas is still left. The Marcellus region is still facing major challenges to its growth. These include a lack of pipeline connections with new markets, the difficult permitting process to build new pipelines and long distances from major LNG export hubs. Haynesville, the deposit that produced 16% of U.S. Shale Gas last year, has much closer ties to LNG exporters who are Haynesville's main customers. Haynesville producers, however, are sensitive to market price fluctuations and reduce their activity when prices fall for long periods. Haynesville's reserves are also estimated to be huge, but they will cost more to extract, as the easy pockets are tapped. Permian Basin is different from Haynesville and Marcellus in that it's predominantly an oil?reserve with natural gas on the side. Permian oil is the most important product. In 2025, the basin will produce around 6.5 millions barrels of crude oil per day. This represents around half the total U.S. crude production. Gas is a by-product of the oil industry, so it is priced accordingly by producers in order to get buyers to buy their gas. Permian Gas is among the most affordable available. However, limited pipeline connectivity can cause supplies to accumulate in the basin. This will further lower prices. The tightening of rules on flaring, the burning off of excess gas, means that Permian Gas producers will need to be more disciplined with their future storage and offtake flows. The high crude oil price also means that more oil and gas production will be expected in the Permian basin by 2026. This could have a greater and more consistent impact on the national gas markets. Gas market watchers will be able to tell how the Big 3 basins interact with each other by the way the market develops in the future. Increasing production in the U.S. will increase power and LNG supplies. The idea of U.S. dominance in energy may have to be rethought if gas production from the Big 3 continues to fall. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Maguire: Record wind output shields UK from worst effects of Iran war.
Wind farms have helped to boost clean energy supplies in the United Kingdom, allowing them to reach new highs by 2026. They also allowed power companies to reduce their use of fossil fuels. The increase in wind power has shielded the UK's power system from the worst of the effects of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran that has caused fossil fuel supplies to be disrupted and pushed oil and gas prices sky high. Data from LSEG show that power supplies?from UK Wind Farms during the first three months of 2026 increased?31% compared to?the same month in 2025. This helped lift overall clean energy output by 16% and total power production by 4%. The increased clean power production has allowed utilities to reduce their use of fossil fuels. This was especially true in the last month, when gas prices in the region spiked after the Iran conflict. The UK's wind-heavy energy system could serve as a model for other countries looking to reduce their fossil fuel use. WIND MOMENTUM LSEG data shows that the UK's output from metered turbine farms - which feed directly into grids - increased by 33% between January and March 2025 compared to those same months. This is equivalent to 33,000 megawatts per 30 minutes. The output of smaller embedded wind farms, which are connected to local distribution networks, is expected to increase by around 27% between 2025 and around 7,800 MW per thirty minutes. The output of both categories of wind farms during the window from January to March was the highest for at least 2023 and has helped wind power become the UK's largest source of power. In 2025, wind farms will account for 33% of the total UK electricity supply during January-March. FOSSIL FUEL CURB LSEG data indicates that biomass plants in the UK, which burn wood pellets, municipal waste, and other organic materials, have also contributed to the UK's clean energy total so far this year and have helped offset declines at nuclear, solar, and hydroelectric plants. The UK's power companies were able to reduce the use of gas power plants by rationing their output from January to March, a drop of?16% compared to last year. In March, the drop in total gas-fired output was 26% lower than March 2025. This cut in UK gas usage by power companies could help UK utilities avoid major price increases. March was the month when the global gas market reacted the most to the U.S.-Iran War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. UK benchmark gas prices have risen by 74% since the end of February, just before the Iran attack began. This is more than the 67% increase that mainland Europe has seen in gas prices during this period. Some industrial gas users in the UK have been forced to pay more for gas over the past few weeks. This has kept gas supplies in the UK tight. But because of the sharply increased wind generation in 2026, power producers were able to limit exposure to gas, which could limit further increases in UK power bills. PRICE WATCH The wholesale power price will reflect how well UK energy firms have managed the Iran crisis thus far. According to LSEG, the average spot wholesale power price in the UK for the first three quarters of 2026 was around 89 Euros per Megawatt Hour. This compares with an average of around?101 euros in Germany, around 137 euros in Italy and around 70 euros for France. The UK's power discount to Germany, Europe's biggest economy and manufacturer, is a relatively recent phenomenon. UK power costs were consistently higher than Germany's before the Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022, which sent regional gas prices skyrocketing. Since then, the UK's energy firms have aggressively increased renewables capacity to reduce the country’s dependence on imported fossil fuels. According to Ember, the UK has routinely secured more electricity through clean energy sources than Germany. The UK power system may still feel the impact of the Iran war after the wind production slows over the summer. The UK's wind farms have, for the moment, shown that they can generate a lot of power at home. This may encourage other regions to expand their wind power footprints. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Starmer: UK needs closer EU partnerships due to volatile world
Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of Britain, said that the global instability brought about by the 'war in Iran' means Britain should align itself more closely with the European Union for security and economic reasons. This is after Donald Trump had criticised the United States. Starmer, at a press event aimed to ease public concerns over rising energy costs, said that the impact of war could "define us for a lifetime" and be similar to the rise in energy prices during the 1970s. Starmer, who spoke to reporters, said that the EU and Canada should be "more?ambitious" in their economic, security, and partnership efforts. Trump criticised Europe on Tuesday for refusing to join him in his war against Iran. He specifically mentioned Britain and France as the transatlantic relationship deteriorated due to the conflict which has driven up energy prices. The President warned Britain and other countries to "learn how to fight yourself" as the U.S. would "no longer be there to help you". Starmer stated that it was "clear" that the Brexit deal agreed by the previous Conservative administration in 2020 caused "deep harm to our economy". (Reporting and writing by Sarah Young; editing by Catarina demony).
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Bahrain releases revised UN Hormuz draft but does not enforce it
Bahrain circulated a revised draft U.N. Security Council resolution on protecting commercial ships?in and around Strait of Hormuz. The language was retained, authorising "all necessary measures" but removing a reference to 'binding enforcement. The shipping through this waterway has already been slowed down to a near halt, after Iran attacked vessels during its conflict with Israel and the United States. Bahrain's first draft was seen and supported by other Gulf Arab countries and Washington. It explicitly invoked Chapter VII (of the U.N. Charter) which allows the Security Council authorise measures from sanctions to military power. Diplomats stated that adoption of such a resolution was unlikely as Iran's partners Russia, and China were expected to veto the measure if needed. A Security Council Resolution requires at least 9 votes in favor and no vetoes by its five permanent members, the United States of America, Russia, China and Britain. The revised text, which diplomats say is still being negotiated, does not mention Chapter VII but keeps the language that goes with it. The bill would allow states to use "all necessary means" (either individually or in voluntary coalitions) in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman, as well as the Gulf of Oman, for the purpose of ensuring passage and preventing interference with international navigation. This includes within or near the territorial waters. The draft encourages all states who rely on commercial maritime routes that pass through the Strait of Gibraltar to coordinate their defensive efforts. This includes escorting merchant vessels. Diplomats have said that they hope to vote on the text by Thursday. (Reporting and editing by John Irish)
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If the Middle East continues to be at war, Ryanair will see a disruption in jet fuel supply as early as May.
Sky News reported on Wednesday that the Middle East conflict could disrupt jet fuel supplies to Europe if it continues. This could put up to 25% of Ryanair's supply at risk in May and June. IATA, the International Air Transport Association, estimates that between 25% and 30% of Europe's demand for jet fuel comes from the Persian Gulf. It warns this makes it one of the most vulnerable regions to any impact the U.S.-Israeli conflict may have on the supply. O'Leary stated that if the Straits of Hormuz are reopened by the middle or end of April and the war is over, there will be no supply risk. "If the 'war' continues and the disruption of supply continues, there is a reasonable risk that a low level, perhaps 10%, 20% or 25% of our supplies could be at risk throughout May and June." O'Leary stated that O'Leary, the Irish airline and Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers has not cut flights because it's?fuel supplies are currently secure, but that there is still a risk of "significantly increased" ticket prices through May, April, or?June. He said in Sunday's Business Post that he expects?summer airfares will rise by more than 3 percent year-on-year because of a combination?of capacity constraints and higher oil costs for less?well?hedged competitors. Budget carrier announced in January that it had met 80% of its jet-fuel requirements for the fiscal year to the end of march 2027, based on crude oil prices of $67 a barrel. (Written by Padraic HALpin in Dublin, edited by Sarah Young.)
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Police say that the'system failure" is responsible for the outage of Baidu robotaxi in Wuhan.
Local police reported a "system failure" that caused an outage of robotaxis operated by Baidu Apollo Go in the central Chinese city?Wuhan on Wednesday. This re-ignited safety concerns about?the rapidly-growing service. According to an official announcement, the police received reports late Tuesday night that a number of Apollo Go cars were stuck in the middle and unable to move. The police reported that passengers were able exit their vehicles safely, and no injuries were reported. Investigations are still ongoing to determine the cause of this incident. A traffic police officer told The Paper in a video that at least 100 'Apollo Go' vehicles were affected. Although the doors of the cars could be opened by the officer, he said that some passengers were reluctant to leave their vehicles because of heavy traffic. They called police for help. Video posted by Douyin's Chinese version of TikTok, which was verified and confirmed, shows vehicles stuck on busy roads, obstructing the flow of traffic. Local media reported that passengers trapped in vehicles for almost two hours. Baidu didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment. On Chinese social media, the accident has prompted a resurgence of discussions about robotaxi safety. In August, an Apollo Go robotaxi with a passenger in it fell into a construction pit in Chongqing. And in May, one of the?cars operated by Pony.ai caught on fire in Beijing. In either case, no injuries were reported. Waymo robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams in San Francisco due to a widespread power outage at the end of last year. Baidu, along with Pony.ai and WeRide, is China's biggest operator of autonomous driving fleets. These companies have launched commercial robotaxi services in major Chinese cities, and expanded their operations to overseas markets including the Middle East. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Kevin Buckland and Qiaoyi Li)
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In March, Russia's gas exports via pipeline to Europe jumped 22% on an annual basis amid the Mideast crisis
Calculations showed that the average daily natural gas supply to Europe by Russian energy giant Gazprom via 'the TurkStream' undersea pipe rose 22% compared to a year ago to 55 million cubic meters in March. The Strait of Hormuz was closed to most shipping because of the Iran War, leaving the energy markets exposed to danger. After Ukraine decided?not extend a five year deal with Moscow, which?expired on January?2025, the Turkey is now the only route to Europe for Russian gas. According to calculations based on data provided by the European Gas Transmission Group Entsog, total Russian gas supplied to Europe via TurkStream reached 1.7 billion cubic meters last month. This is up from 1.4 billion cubic metres in March 2025. The supply of goods was largely stable from February. Exports grew 11% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, reaching around 5 billion cubic meters. Gazprom has not responded to a comment request since 2023. It is the first time that it hasn't published its own statistics. According to calculations, the company's -gas exports into Europe dropped by 44% last year, to 18 bcm. This is the lowest level since the mid-1970s. In 2018-2019, the Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe reached a peak of around 180 bcm annually. (Reporting and Reporting by Oksana KOBZEVA. Writing by Vladimir Soldatkin. Mark Potter (Editing)
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Germany's Deutsche Bahn gets more investment but must win back public trust
The German Bahn has seen more bookings that 'expected' as Easter approaches, and the fuel price increases are attracting people to train travel. However, it still faces a steep uphill battle in reviving 'its ageing network' and restoring the public trust after a long decline. Inga Nielsen says she has had bad experiences for years. In 2021, the six-hour trip from Amsterdam to Berlin was turned into a long odyssey involving regional trains and buses. Her train broke down two weeks ago and was delayed for two hours. She said that the main reason for using Deutsche Bahn was to avoid flying, which is getting more expensive. However, she also added that it is stressful. Analysts link the decline in Deutsche Bahn with the woes facing the German economy. The German economy has been struggling to regain momentum since the COVID-19 epidemic, due to rising competition from China and high energy prices, as well as a lack of investment. The government has now spent heavily to revive them both. Tim Engartner is a professor at Cologne University and the author of numerous studies about Deutsche Bahn. "Things?are not running smoothly." PASSENGERS WANT TO RELY ON A RAILWAY Last Friday, Deutsche Bahn CEO Evelyn Palla stated at a news conference presenting the financial results for 2025, a loss of 2.3bn euros ($2.66bn), that customers expected a railway on which they could rely. "In the past few years, we've disappointed this trust too many times -- with inadequate quality, through losses, and a lack transparency," she said. She said it would still take ten years and an additional 150 billion euros (162 billion dollars) to finish the planned overhaul of rail networks. To speed up the turnaround, the German government is increasing investment in the state owned operator. The Easter holiday will be a test, as Deutsche Bahn has said that long-distance bookings have been in double-digit percentages above expectations due to the Iran War pushing up fuel prices. 40 PERCENT LONG DISTANCE TRAIN DELAYS Deutsche Bahn reported that 60% of their long-distance train services were on time by 2025. This means 40% weren't. The train is late if the arrival time is six minutes or greater. A crisis in operations has been matched with a churning at the top. The state-owned railway has been struggling to turn things around. Experts claim that despite the increasing rail usage, Deutsche Bahn's troubles are due to decades of underinvestment. They also point out that it is a joint stock company aiming both to make a profit and provide a public service. According to Allianz pro Schiene, Germany has doubled its per capita government investment in rail infrastructure from last year to 198 Euros in 2024. However, it still lags behind Austria, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The structural problem is the lack of state funding for the railway as a public service, said Vera Huwe at Dezernat Zukunft. Gross investment reached a record of 22 billion euro in 2025, and 23 billion euro is planned in 2026. Palla calls this "a super-construction year". The 500 billion euro German infrastructure fund will help. Deutsche Bahn is set to receive 81 Billion Euros between 2025-2029. Katja Diehl, mobility expert and spokesman for the German government, said: "They call this an investment push but it is more about stabilizing the system."
The Iran war has increased the cost of beauty products, from plastic jars to transportation.
The Iran War is affecting the supply chain of cosmetics, driving up the cost of plastic jars, lipstick tubes, and transport. It also reminds the beauty industry of the fragility of global trade routes, which are even needed to make a tub of face lotion.
The cost pressure was a common theme at the largest trade show in the industry, held in Bologna (northern Italy), as the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane entered its fifth week.
The Cosmoprof trade fair attracted 3,100 exhibitors and 255,000 attendees from 150 countries, including companies looking for packaging solutions as well as retailers scouting out new products.
Five industry executives said that the cosmetics companies were most concerned about rising raw material costs and transportation costs as a result of higher oil prices.
Simone Dominici is the CEO of the Italian cosmetics group Kiko. She estimates that additional logistical costs will be around 1.5 million euros ($1.7million) over the course of the year.
Kiko operates over 1,000 stores in the world, selling lipsticks as low as?5 euros or mascaras at 7.5 euros.
Dominici added that the Middle East is experiencing a shortage of containers and goods, and the prices of some chemical components, packaging, and other products, many of which are sourced in the Far East, would add to the pressure.
Yonwoo, which makes containers for L'Oreal, K-beauty and other companies, has said that the Iran crisis is disrupting supply chains and it's scrambling to get plastic resin in order to make pots for cosmetics and skincare.
ALTERNATIVE ROUTES
Dominici stated that the industry may also be affected by a softer demand among consumers, whose purchasing power has been eroded due to inflation.
He warned, "It is the perfect storm."
Intercos, listed on the Milan Stock Exchange, and Ancorotti Group (privately owned), two of Italy's biggest contract manufacturers, both said that they have not faced any major shortages, but pointed to higher logistic costs, longer delivery times, and rising raw materials prices as obstacles.
"Lead time has increased as ports and routes have grown longer." Ancorotti's Chief Executive, Roberto Bottino, said that what used to take eight weeks can now take 12-14 weeks.
Bottino said that some clients are using rail to travel to Asia.
Ancorotti Group generates around 220 millions euros in revenue per year by selling products to beauty brands throughout the world.
Bottino stated that it is difficult to imagine the cost increases in the supply chain not being ultimately passed on downstream.
"Middle East consumers value quality, and they are willing to pay more for added value. So, being unable to reach these markets could have a negative effect", said Fabio Francochina, Chairman of haircare products manufacturer Framesi.
Franchina stated that the distributor of the company in the region is exploring alternative delivery routes.
He said that they were looking into options such as shipping goods to Jeddah, and then transporting them by road instead of through Persian Gulf ports.
He added that some goods are now being shipped via air rather than sea, which further increases costs.
According to Cosmetica Italia (the industry association), Italy will produce 18 billion euros worth of cosmetics by 2025. This includes 8.4 billion euro in exports. It is the fifth largest exporter of beauty goods in the world and one of its leading producers for hair dyes and eye make-up.
(source: Reuters)