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Maguire: The power system in India has just reached a tipping point of historic proportions.

India's electricity system has reached a new level that is very different from what the data usually tells.

India has been considered one of the largest coal markets in the world for a long time, and rightfully so. Coal is still responsible for approximately 70% of electricity production and is the backbone of our grid.

A look at the installed capacity mix of the country suggests that something is happening beneath the surface.

According to the latest data on capacity from Ember Global Energy Monitor, clean energy sources account for 331.7 gigawatts of installed capacity compared to 302.0 GW for fossil fuels.

This?capacity-split gives clean energy a majority share in India's utility electricity mix for the very first time.

CLEAN SPLIT

This milestone is not important because India suddenly became a clean energy system. This has not happened. It reveals instead a growing tension in India between what it is building and burning.

It is important to make this distinction because the generation statistics are a description of today's electric system while the capacity numbers provide a glimpse into tomorrow's.

Solar panels and windmills only produce when the weather permits.

The capacity mix is a good indicator of where the capital is going, what infrastructures are being built, and ultimately what kind of power system India wants to build.

India's transformation appears to be much more advanced than many observers believe.

SOLAR SPOTLIGHT

Solar power is the most obvious example.

In 2010, India only had 0.07 GW solar power. According to Ember, India has 211 GW of solar capacity today. Solar represents 33% of the total utility-scale installed capacity. It is the most popular clean energy source.

It is hard to overstate the extent of this expansion.

India's solar power fleet is now almost as big as its coal-fired fleet, which has a capacity of 254.4 GW.

The solar capacity alone is larger than the entire Indian power system, which was 211.4 GW in 2011, when it had total installed capacity.

The pace at which recent additions have been made is even more impressive.

India will add 75.5 GW solar capacity between 2025 and mid-2026 compared to just 3.8 GW coal capacity. Clean capacity increased by 80 GW?overall over the period. Fossil capacity grew only by 5.4 GW.

This does not mean that India has stopped producing coal. The coal capacity is still increasing and policymakers are committed to increasing dispatchable power to meet the rapidly growing demand for electricity.

The challenge for the country is not to replace an existing system of electricity, but rather to build enough power generation capacity to support a rapidly growing economy.

GROWTH MARKET

India's transformation is different from that of many other developed markets.

In Europe, the energy transition has been largely a substitution of clean energy with fossil fuels. India's energy transition occurs as the country's overall electricity demand continues its upward trend.

In this way, coal's absolute value can grow even though it is losing ground relative to other fuels.

These numbers show this shift very clearly.

In 2014, coal accounted for 59% of the installed capacity. By 2026 its share would have fallen to 40%. The total amount of fossil fuels has declined from almost three quarters in 2000 to under half today.

The growth of renewables is much faster than coal.

This distinction is important because power systems can change slowly and then suddenly.

Renewables have been a major part of the energy mix in the last decade, but without fundamentally changing the grid structure. Several milestones suggest that the balance of power is shifting.

Solar power was the first to surpass all other sources of clean energy. Hydro was the mainstay of India's nonfossil power fleet. Solar capacity is now roughly four times greater than hydro and wind capacity.

Second, there is a growing majority of clean-capacity vehicles. The crossing of the 50% threshold is often symbolic but also attracts policymakers, corporate planners and investors.

When a category of technology becomes dominant, subsequent investment decisions reinforce this dominance.

Just ahead is the third milestone.

Solar capacity now equals?to about 80% of coal's capacity. Solar could overtake coal in India as the largest source of installed power within 10 years if growth rates continue.

This would be a significant psychological shift even if coal was the biggest generator of electricity.

This is the next step in India's transformation.

Next?STEPS

It is not a question of whether India can build large-scale renewable energy capacity. This capability has been demonstrated. Now the challenge is to convert capacity growth into generational growth.

This means investing in grid infrastructure, transmission systems, storage systems, and flexible energy resources that can balance large amounts of solar output.

The success of the project will not be determined by how many solar panels you install, but rather by how much coal they eventually replace.

For a long time to come, India will continue to be portrayed as a coal-based country by Generation Data.

But the data on capacity tells a very different story.

These figures show that the country's future power system is forming much faster than what headline generation numbers suggest.

India's coal burning may still be dominated by this fuel. The power sector's centre of gravity has begun to shift based on what India is building.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)