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Maguire: China's grid cleaning puts US systems to shame

China's expansion of coal-fired capacity has enraged U.S. advisors to the power system who complain that it's pointless to clean up production at home when China raises coal-fired emission levels ever higher.

These arguments ignore the fact that China’s power network is significantly cleaner than many major U.S. systems. This is due to China’s record-fast deployment clean energy sources.

In fact, China's electricity system produced less carbon dioxide per unit of production than the Florida state and other major U.S. systems.

While China continues to increase its clean energy production, the U.S. is preparing to increase the natural gas fired capacity of many power networks in order to meet the demands of the Trump administration which has a disdain for renewable power.

These divergent trends are likely to lead to cleaner power supplies in China, while the U.S. will become more dependent on fossil-fuels which will increase pollution levels.

CLEANING UP

Ember, a think-tank for energy, has calculated that China's electricity system will rely on fossil fuels to produce 62% of its output by 2024.

This fossil fuel share is 58% in the United States. While the scale of the two power systems are different - China produces twice as much energy as the U.S., they both rely on fossil fuels.

China has increased its clean energy and total electricity production in the last five years.

China's clean-powered electric supply will increase by 68% between 2019 and 2024. This will result in a 36% increase in total electricity production.

In the same time period, U.S. clean energy production increased by 17% while total electricity supply grew only 5%.

China's more rapid boost in clean generation led to a faster gain for clean energy within China's mix of generation, which increased from a share of 31% in 2019 to 38% in 2024.

This compares with a clean energy share of 38% in the U.S. for 2019, and 42% in 2024.

China's continued rollout of utility scale renewables generation systems is expected to continue increasing the share of clean power in its generation mix for the remainder of this decade.

Clean power's share in the U.S. mix of generation may remain at current levels as utilities plan to increase gas-fired capacity over the next 5 years.

DECLINING INTENSE

As China's electricity system grows, the carbon intensity of its electricity production is steadily falling.

According to the energy portal, electricitymaps.com, China's electric generation system will emit an average of 534 g of CO2 or equivalent gases per kilowatt-hour of electricity in 2024.

This compares with an average of 395 g of CO2/kWh for the United States. That means China's system is 35% more carbon-intensive than the U.S.

The U.S. grid is divided into three main grids, each operated by six so-called reliability organizations and powered by different utilities.

Each utility system operates on its own unique mix of energy sources. This means that certain sub-systems are more carbon intensive than others.

The Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), which is spread across South Dakota, Wyoming and Nebraska, is one of the U.S. energy systems that are the most carbon intensive.

In 2024, the WAPA system's carbon intensity was 26 percent higher than China's.

The grid in China is 35% less efficient than other localized power networks, like the Jacksonville Electric Authority in Jacksonville, Florida.

In addition, two other large Florida power grids had a carbon intensity higher than China's last year. This means that Florida's electricity will be sourced from systems with higher emissions than China in 2024.

This trend will only continue to grow as Florida, which currently has a ban offshore wind energy and offers limited incentives to utility-scale solar power plants, plans to increase gas-fired capability.

The U.S. has other power systems with a similar carbon intensity to China that are also committed to further fossil-intensive growth.

Associated Electric Cooperative, which is a cooperative that operates in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Iowa, has a carbon intensity (CO2/kWh) of 676 grams by 2024. They are commissioning at the very least one new gas-fired power plant.

PacifiCorp which provides services to customers in Oregon Washington State and California plans to build a 5 gigawatt peaking gas plant. It had a carbon density of 614g CO2/kWh.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) reports that China plans to add to its fossil-fuel power fleet. This includes over 200 gigawatts in new coal-fired capability.

China's carbon intensity is likely to continue declining, and may even fall below the U.S. level in the next few years.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)