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Europe's struggling retailers are unprepared for a new energy price shock

The rise in energy prices following the U.S. and Israeli 'war on Iran' puts further pressure on the?retail sector in Europe. Already struggling with a?weak - consumer demand, as well as diminished spending power. Investors and analysts were expecting a spillover effect from higher gas and petrol prices. This is despite the fact that the retail sector, which includes Marks & Spencer and Inditex, has barely recovered since the spike in gas prices following Russia's invasion. The prices of food manufacturers, supermarkets and clothing retailers increased significantly after the energy price shock that occurred in 2022. However, the situation today could be even worse, as the economies in the Eurozone and the UK are barely growing.

Retailers also had to deal with the added costs and disruptions caused by a global war of trade launched last year by President Donald Trump.

"If prices rise?now, the consumer might react more strongly, given that demand is already fragile," said Christian Eufinger. A professor of finance at IESE, Barcelona, who has studied how energy price shocks affect consumer prices.

The demand was relatively high when the Ukraine crisis struck in early 2022 as economies recovered from the pandemic. Eufinger said that after years of high prices, the people now have less money.

According to an index released in January by restructuring firm Weil, the retail and consumer goods industry was already in the worst shape in Europe even before this surge in oil prices. The index is based on indicators such as reduced profitability and increasing insolvency risks.

COST PRESSURES CHAIN REACTION

Francesco Gangemi, consultant at Simon-Kucher, says that the most immediate impact on retailers is the cost to truck goods around. Road?transport accounts for between 5% and 10% of an average retailer's operational expenses.

Costs for supermarkets and shopping malls are increased by energy-intensive refrigeration, heating, air conditioning and lighting. Oil prices have also risen due to the sudden increase in oil. This has directly affected food producers.

Massimiliano Giansanti is the president of Italian farmers group Confagricoltura. He said that a cost-driven inflationary spiral appears inevitable.

Simon-Kucher’s Gangemi stated that clothing retailers are most vulnerable to inflation because fashion is what people first cut back on when prices of food and essentials increase.

RBC analysts have cut their predictions for M&S profit, saying that the rise in oil and gas costs will likely increase British household bills later this year.

The British retail association has called on the government to limit the impact of the new taxation laws on consumers.

Andrew Opie is the director of food sustainability and British Retail Consortium.

(source: Reuters)