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Oil prices jump 8% above $100 in anticipation of US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
Oil prices jumped over $100 a barrel Monday as the U.S. Navy?prepared a?blockade of the Strait?of Hormuz which could restrict Iranian oil?shipments?after?the U.S. Brent crude futures were up $7.60 or 7.98% to $102.80 per barrel at 2310 GMT, after closing 0.75% lower Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate reached $104.88 per barrel, an increase of $8.31 or 8.61% after a loss of 1.33% in the previous session. The market has returned to its pre-ceasefire conditions, with the exception that the U.S. is blocking the remaining Iranian-linked flows of up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day through the Strait of?Hormuz, said Saul Kavonic. He is the head of MST Marquee's energy research. Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. Navy would begin blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This is a major step after the marathon talks between Iran and the U.S. failed to produce a peace agreement, putting at risk a fragile two-week ceasefire. He said that oil and gasoline prices may continue to rise through the midterm elections in November, "a rare acknowledgment of the possible 'political fallout" from his decision six weeks earlier to attack Iran. The U.S. Central Command announced that U.S. Forces would begin blocking all maritime traffic into and out of Iranian ports as early as 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT), on Monday. In a recent note, ANZ analysts 'Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes' said that the move would not only restrict the exports of Persian Gulf oil producers but also Iran's capability to export oil. This will exacerbate supply disruptions on the market. IG analyst Tony Sycamore stated that the move would effectively choke-off the flow of Iranian crude oil, forcing Tehran’s allies to apply the necessary pressure in order to reopen the waterway. Iran's Revolutionary Guards announced on Sunday that any military vessel attempting to "approach" the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as a violation of two-week U.S. truce and dealt with harshly. Shipping data revealed that despite the deadlock, three supertankers,?fully loaded with oil, passed through the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. They appeared to be first vessels to leave the Gulf after the ceasefire agreement was reached last week. Shipping data from LSEG showed that no other ships were spotted 'in the strait Monday, except for an 'Iran-flagged vessel anchored in the area. Saudi Arabia announced on Sunday that it had restored the full capacity of the East-West oil pipeline to approximately 7 million barrels per days, just days after assessing the damage caused to its energy sector by attacks during the Iran Conflict.
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CME approves the storage of aluminium and lead in Hong Kong
CME Group, the U.S. commodities trading exchange, has approved its first base metal storage facility in Hong Kong. This is a move to expand its warehousing footprint in Asia. CME said in a Friday statement that it had approved GKE Metal Logistics’ application to store aluminium, lead and deliverables against Comex aluminium futures and lead 'futures' in the Chinese Special Administrative Region. The statement stated that the GKE site has a storage capacity of 6,500 metric tonnes for both aluminium and lead. In 'February, it was reported that the CME would?approve the storage facilities in Hong Kong and Taiwan in order to gain more traction for its aluminium contract in Asia, which is the largest regional market for this metal. Later that month, the Taiwan?sites?were approved. London Metal Exchange, a rival of CME, approved its first warehouses at Hong Kong nearly a year ago. CME announced in a separate announcement that it had approved the application of a UK-based warehouse firm Henry Bath to store aluminum in Hong Kong. The outdoor storage capacity at this location has been approved as?4,500 tonnes. CME has Asia base metals storage in Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea. (Reporting and editing by Chris Reese; Tom Daly)
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Floods in Angola suspend trains through the Lobito critical minerals corridor
The railway that runs through the Lobito corridor in Angola, which is a critical?source for minerals such as copper and 'cobalt, was forced to suspend operations on Sunday due to flooding caused by nearby rivers. Heavy rains have flooded bridges across the Halo River between Cubal Station and Caimbambo Station, as well as a bridge crossing the Cavaco river near Benguela. In a press release, it stated that "as a consequence, rail traffic is suspended indefinitely" on the affected sections. Angola granted the Lobito Atlantic Rail - a consortium consisting of Trafigura Mota-Engil Vecturis SA, a 30-year-long concession to operate and provide a fast route for copper and coal exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Lobito port on the 'Atlantic coast. Trains also transport agricultural products and industrial goods from the port in a?opposite directions to DRC mines. Climate change is worsening floods in southern Africa, causing frequent disruptions to transport. (Reporting and writing by Miguel Gomez, Tim Cocks, Christina Fincher).
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Trump: US will block the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible
Donald Trump said on Sunday that the U.S. Navy will 'immediately begin blockading?the?Strait of Hormuz?and interdict any vessel in international waterways which has paid a toll for Iran. Trump's remarks were made in a Truth Social post, hours after U.S.-.Iran talks ended without a deal. Trump said that the meeting went "well," adding that the two sides were not in agreement on Iran's nuclear program. "Effectively immediately, the United States Navy will begin the BLOCKADING of any and all ships trying to enter or leave the 'Strait of Hormuz,'" said Trump. He is opposed to the idea of Iran charging a toll for ships to pass through the strait. "I also ordered our Navy to search for and intercept any vessel in international waters that has paid tolls to 'Iran. He said that anyone who pays an illegal toll on the high seas will not be allowed safe passage.
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China offers incentives for Taiwan after opposition leader's visit
China announced 10 new incentives for Taiwan on Sunday, including easing tourist restrictions, allowing "healthy" TV dramas and facilitating the sale of food, after a visit from the island's opposition leader. Cheng Li-wun (chairwoman of Taiwan's largest political opposition party, the Kuomintang) made this decision at the end of a visit to China. She spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the importance of peace and reconciliation. The official Xinhua News Agency announced 10 measures that "explore" a number of issues, including the resumption of flights between China and Taiwan, and the permission to individuals from Shanghai or Fujian Province to visit Taiwan. Xinhua reported that a mechanism would be created to reduce the inspection standards of food and fishery items, but it must be based on a political platform "opposing Taiwan's independence". Taiwanese TV dramas, documentaries, and animations will be allowed to air, as long as "they have a correct orientation, healthy contents, and high-quality production," the statement added. Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council (which is responsible for the island's China Policy) said in a recent statement that Beijing's "unilateral" concessions are merely poison pills disguised as "generous gifts packages." It said that the Taiwanese Government supports healthy and orderly exchanges across the Strait, but these should not be dependent on political objectives or preconditions. The?KMT issued a statement in which it welcomed China's declaration, calling it a "gift" for the people of Taiwan. China has refused to speak with Taiwan President Lai Ching Te, claiming that he is a separatist. He rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the democratically-governed island. China and Taiwan blame each other for the lack of Chinese tourism on the island following the COVID-19 pandemic. Taiwan has also complained before about Chinese restrictions on the import of certain agricultural and aquatic products. Taiwan claims that China uses unjustified excuses in some cases to prevent the spread of pests.
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Saudi Arabia restores capacity to the East-West oil pipeline at 7 million barrels per day after the attacks
Saudi Arabia said that it had restored the full capacity of the East-West oil pipeline to about seven million barrels per day. This was after assessing the damage caused by the attacks on the energy sector during the Iran conflict. According to the ministry, the energy facilities and pipelines that were damaged during the conflict are now operational again. Saudi Arabia did not say who was behind the attack, but it has intercepted Iranian missiles and drones many times in recent weeks. The strikes also disrupted key oil, gas and refining sites, as well as petrochemical, electricity and petrochemical sites, in Riyadh and the Eastern Province. RESTORE OUTPUT TO CONTINUE SUPPLY Saudi Arabia said that the attacks on Thursday had reduced its oil production by approximately 600,000 barrels a day, and its East-West Pipeline throughput by about 700,000. Saudi Arabia has only one crude export route, the East-West Pipeline, due to the closure of Strait of Hormuz. Reports on Wednesday claimed that Iran had attacked the 'pipeline just hours following the ceasefire. The ministry said it had'recovered affected volumes' from the Manifa field, where production had been reduced previously by approximately?300,000. The ministry said that work was underway to restore the full output at the Khurais plant after attacks on it reduced Saudi Arabia's capacity by a further?300,000 bpd. The company said that a quick recovery would improve the "reliability and consistency of supplies for local and global markets." Reporting by Menna Alaa Al-Din, Muhammad Al Gebaly and Bernadette B. Baum
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China offers incentives for Taiwan after opposition leader's visit
China announced 10 new incentives measures for Taiwan on Sunday, including relaxing tourist restrictions, allowing "healthy" TV dramas and facilitating the sale of food. This follows a visit by Taiwan's opposition leader. Cheng Li-wun (chairwoman of Taiwan's biggest opposition party, the Kuomintang KMT) made the decision at the end of a visit to China. She spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping about the importance of peace and reconciliation. The 10'measures', announced by the official Xinhua News Agency, "explore" establishing a'regular communication system between the KMT, and China’s Communist Party. They also include the full resumption of flights between both sides, and allowing individuals from Shanghai, and Fujian Province, to visit Taiwan. Xinhua reported that a mechanism would be created to reduce the?inspection standard for food and _fishery products. However, this must be based on the political basis of "opposing Taiwan's independence". Taiwanese dramas, documentaries, and animations will be permitted to be shown, as long as they are "correctly oriented, have healthy content, and are of high production quality," it added. Taiwan's government did not immediately respond. China has refused to speak to Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te because it believes he is "separatist." He rejects Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over the democratically-governed island. China and Taiwan blamed eachother for the failure of a large-scale Chinese tourism on the island after the end of the COVID-19 epidemic. Taiwan complained before about Chinese restrictions?on the imports of certain agricultural and aquatic products. It claimed that China had in some cases used unjustified reasons to stop the spreading of pests and disease.
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Israel reprimands Spain for blowing up an effigy of Netanyahu
Israel announced on Saturday that it had reprimanded Spain’s most senior diplomat in Tel Aviv for the explosion of a giant effigy?of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week in a Spanish town. Maria Dolores Narvaez, the mayor of El Burgo in southern Spain, told local TV that the seven-metre-high (23-foot-high)?figure had been packed with?14 kg (31 lb) gunpowder during a ceremony held for decades on April 5. Israel's Foreign Ministry stated in a press release on X that highlighted a video, "The appalling hatred of Jews on display is the direct result from Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Government's systematic incitement." I was not able to confirm the video immediately. "The Spanish government is committed to combating antisemitism, hate and discrimination in any form. We reject any 'insidious allegations' that suggest the opposite, a Spanish Foreign Ministry?source said. El Burgo Mayor Narvaez stated that the town had previously used effigies for U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin at the annual event. Spain has always been a vocal critic of U.S. military operations in Iran and Lebanon. This is despite U.S. warnings to punish non-cooperative NATO members. Spain and Israel have been involved in a long-running dispute that began with the Gaza War. Gideon Sa'ar, Israeli Foreign Minister said that a Spanish ban on aircraft or ships transporting weapons to Israel through its?ports and?airspace was antisemitic. Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares has accused Israel of breaking international law and the two-week truce after a wave of airstrikes across Lebanon this week. Netanyahu claimed on Wednesday that Lebanon is not a part of the ceasefire, and Israel's military continues to attack Hezbollah with force. Sanchez, who is a prominent opponent of the Iran War, has shut down Spanish airspace for any aircraft that may be involved in an encounter he describes as reckless and illegal. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Reporting by Graham Keeley)
Shell could gain from BP's short-term buyback cut: Bousso
BP's decision not to buy back shares may hurt in the short term, but it can start to improve its financial standing by prioritising growth of production over payouts to shareholders.
BP has made the biggest financial shift since halving its dividends in August 2020, following a pandemic-driven drop in oil prices.
This move, as well as other cost-cutting plans and divestment, would go a long ways towards boosting BP's weakened financials and better positioning the company to?take full advantage of its positive production outlook.
It could have wider implications for the industry if a financially stronger BP attracts interest from rivals who are looking to acquire reserves, such as Shell.
The timing of this announcement indicates that Chairman Albert Manifold, the board and Meg O'Neill are eager to "clear out the decks" before the arrival of Meg O'Neill as the new chief executive in April following the abrupt departure last December of Murray Auchincloss.
BP's shares fell by up to 5% on Tuesday after the announcement of this decision. However, the move is a necessary one, given the poor state of the British company's financials.
BP will be able to reduce its net debt from $22 billion to $14 to $18 Billion by suspending buybacks that totaled $4.5 billion between 2025 and 2027.
Back to Petrol
BP's financial struggles are in stark contrast with the impressive rebuilding that has taken place of its oil & gas operations since 2024. This was when Auchincloss started reversing Bernard Looney’s failed attempts to transform BP to a renewables leader.
BP's average oil and gas production in 2025 was 2.3 million barrels of equivalent oil per day (boed), a relatively flat rate year-over-year. This was supported by the launch of seven new projects in the Gulf of Mexico. It wants to increase production to 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) by 2030.
The company also has several large projects under development that will support production for the next decade. These include the Tiber-Guadalupe project in the Gulf of Mexico, the Kaskida project in Iraq's Kirkuk Oilfield and the redevelopment of Iraqi Kirkuk oilfield. The company also made 12 discoveries of oil and gas last year.
BP announced on Tuesday that the Bumerangue discovery, located offshore Brazil, contains 8 billion barrels estimated oil. This is one of the largest discoveries of recent years. Later this year, BP plans to conduct further appraisal drilling.
Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy, estimates that BP could keep its production largely flat from 2025 to 2035 at 2.35 million boed based upon current discoveries and development projects. This is a huge achievement, given the need to offset the natural field decline which typically averages around 5 percent globally.
BP didn't disclose its reserves at year-end 2025, but it said that it replaced 90% the oil and natural gas it produced. This implies a modest decrease from the 6.2 million barrels of oil reported at the end 2024. This does not include Bumerangue.
SHELL'S PRODUCTION GIAP
Shell, BP's larger British rival, is a mirror image in many ways.
Shell, under the leadership of Wael Sawan who assumed office in 2023 has become leaner, more efficient and cost-effective. Its annual costs have been reduced by more than $5 billion. This was achieved by thousands of job losses and prioritising the most profitable activities, principally oil and natural gas. The result has been the closure of fossil fuel assets and low-carbon businesses.
Shell also reduced its capital expenditures target from $22-$25 to $20-$22. This discipline, however, has cost Shell. UBS estimates that only 7% of Shell’s capex goes to growth. This is the lowest percentage among European majors.
Shell's production of oil and gas fell by 1% to 2.8 millions boed in 2025.
The decline in reserves is more worrying. Shell's oil reserves and gas reserves fell to a new record low of 8.1 billion barils in 2025 from 8.9 million barrels in the year 2024.
The "reserves life" and the ratio of reserves to production, also known as the "reserve ratio", is a key indicator for the long-term sustainability of the energy industry. Investors paid less attention to the reserves in the early part of this decade, as they were enthused by the energy transition. But now that the outlook on fossil fuel demand is improving, the focus has returned.
Shell's reserve lifetime fell from nine years to eight years by 2025, according to calculations.
Wood Mackenzie's estimates suggest that Shell could see its production drop by up to 800,000 boed in the next decade. Sawan acknowledged that in an analyst call held last week, the company will face a production gap beyond 2030.
Shell has two levers that it can use to reverse its decline. Shell can increase its exploration expenditures, which is a high-risk and high-reward business that can take many years to produce results. It could also acquire new resources.
This brings back a question which has been tantalising markets for many years: Will Shell try to buy BP?
BP has a market cap of $100 billion, while Shell is worth $220 billion. Combining these two highly diversified firms would be incredibly complex. Any?deal? would also face significant regulatory obstacles.
Shell's improved production outlook and resource base, however, could help Shell close the gap between itself and its U.S. competitors Exxon Mobil & Chevron after 2030.
Investors may not be happy with BP's suspension of buybacks, but considering the options available to the company, it was inevitable. In addition, its growth strategy makes this move more shrewd than the market gives credit.
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(source: Reuters)