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What takes place if Russian gas transit via Ukraine stops?

Heavy battling near the Russian town of Sudzha, where Russian gas flows into Ukraine, has actually raised issues over an unexpected stop to transit streams via Ukraine before a fiveyear handle Russia's Gazprom expires.

The Ukraine gas transit path makes it possible for Russia to export gas to Europe through Ukraine. The transit deal is set to end at the end of the year. Kyiv has previously stated it has no plans to renew or extend it.

According to Ukraine's gas pipelines operator, Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Europe fell by 28.5% to 14.65 billion cubic metres (bcm) last year in from 20.5 bcm in 2022.

WHY COULD TRANSIT STOP EARLY?

Russia said it was combating extreme battles versus Ukrainian forces that had penetrated its southern border near a. significant gas transmission hub of Sudzha.

2 Russian military blogs stated, without providing proof,. that Ukrainian forces had caught a gas measuring center at. Sudzha, through which Russian gas passes.

The latter increases the threat for a more abrupt drop in. Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, analysts at ING said.

For now, Gazprom said it will continue to ship gas through. Ukraine on Thursday and Ukraine's gas transit operator also said. operations continue as typical.

However there is a risk that Gazprom utilizes the fighting as an. reason to cut flows, stated James Waddell, head of European gas. and LNG at consultancy Energy Aspects.

Ukraine's gas system operator declared force majeure. through the other entry point of the transit path, Sokhranivka,. and halted circulations in 2022, pointing out the disturbance of the. occupying forces in technical processes.

This is a most likely reason for stopping flows than. collateral or intended damage to the pipelines, he said.

WHICH COUNTRIES GET GAS VIA THE ROUTE?

Many EU countries have actually reduced their reliance on Russian. gas due to the Ukraine intrusion. Previous primary receivers of gas. by means of Ukraine include Austria, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, Croatia,. Slovenia, and Moldova. Austria still gets the majority of its gas. through Ukraine, while others have actually diversified their sources and. taken actions to lower demand.

Moldova, one of Europe's poorest countries, in 2015. sourced all its gas from European markets, leaving offered gas. from Gazprom for its breakaway eastern area, Transdniestria.

Croatia's imports are now minimal and Slovenia's have. dropped to near no after its main gas provider Geoplin's. agreement with Gazprom ended last year, a research study by the Center on. Global Energy Policy at Columbia University said.

HOW CAN GAS BY MEANS OF UKRAINE BE CHANGED?

The previous European Commission said previously this year that. alternative supply sources exist.

Austria can import from Italy and Germany, and its energies. have said they have actually taken precautionary procedures if Russian gas. supply stops.

Hungary has been counting on Russian gas from an option. path: the TurkStream pipeline, and Slovenia gets its gas from. Algeria and other sources. Italy gets the majority of its gas. through a path which facilitates Azeri gas imports and from. Algeria.

EXIST OTHER OPTIONS FOR UKRAINE TRANSIT?

Slovak gas supplier SPP said a consortium of European gas. purchasers might take over the gas on the Russia-Ukraine border when. the transit contract ends, however it is unclear how this may. work.

Another alternative is for Gazprom to supply a few of the gas through. another path, for instance by means of TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or. Hungary. However, capability via these paths is restricted, SPP told. Reuters.

The EU and Ukraine have likewise asked Azerbaijan to facilitate. conversations with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri. governmental consultant told Reuters, who decreased to give further. details.

The EU has actually been attempting to diversify its imports of gas and. signed a deal to double imports of Azeri gas to at least 20 bcm. a year by 2027 but the advisor stated the infrastructure and. financing were still not in location to facilitate this expansion.

Nevertheless, with Azeri domestic usage set to rise,. analysts at Energy Aspects said they see just around 1.7 bcm. readily available for incremental exports, and there is also little. spare capacity to get the gas into Europe.

JUST HOW MUCH EARNINGS WILL GAZPROM LOSE?

Russia could lose around $4.5 billion annually if exports. stop, based upon an expected average gas rate to Europe of $320. per 1,000 cubic metres in 2025. Its everyday exports via Ukraine to. Europe currently stand at more than 40 million cubic metres,. according to Gazprom's information.

(source: Reuters)