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Analysts say that the impact of Venezuela on CANADA-CRUDE - Western Canada Select is likely to be limited for now.

The difference between the West Texas Intermediate benchmark futures and Western Canada Select futures has widened since Tuesday, but analysts say that Canadian heavy crude will not be impacted by Venezuela's situation in the short-term.

WCS for Hardisty, Alberta delivery in February settled at $13.80 per barrel below WTI benchmark, according to brokerage CalRock. This compares with $13.55 a barge on Monday.

Analysts and traders assess the 'potential for further weakness,' but the capture by the U.S. of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro so far has had a minimal impact on the Canadian differential.

A TD Cowen Report said that a 'rapid ramp up of Venezuelan oil output could significantly pressure Canadian heavy crude oil prices in the mid-term. This is unlikely. The report stated that Canada's size, rule of law and infrastructure work in its favor.

If Venezuela significantly increased its production, it would give its heavy oil barrels an advantage in terms of location over Canadian heavy crude oil barrels on the U.S. Gulf Coast. ATB Capital reported that the majority of Canada's oil exports go to the U.S. Midwest. This region is less vulnerable due to its proximity to Canada and existing pipeline system.

ATB Capital stated that Canadian oil prices will be more affected by OPEC+ policy in the future, Canadian egress from the west coast, Russian exports and global demand than the situation in Caracas.

The global oil price fell on Tuesday, as the market weighed the expectations of an ample supply of crude this year with the uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan crude production after the U.S. captured Nicolas Maduro.

(source: Reuters)