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Five energy market trends in 2026: Bousso
The energy markets are in a depressed mood for 2026, as geopolitical uncertainties cloud the outlook. In addition, signs of a growing oil and gas supply threaten to lower prices. The oil and gas industry had a crazy year in 2018. Highlights included the 12-day Israel/Iran conflict in June, the trade wars of Donald Trump, the intensified targeting by Russia of energy infrastructure as part of its war on Ukraine, OPEC’s sometimes perplexing decisions regarding production, and the recent threatened U.S. ban of Venezuela. What's next for the upcoming year? Here are five energy trends that will likely shape the landscape by 2026. The Year of the Glut? Fears of a significant oversupply caused crude oil prices to fall nearly 20% by 2025, from $60 per barrel to around $60. The global oil production has risen over the last year. The U.S., the world's largest oil producer, increased production as did Canada, Brazil and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia. According to the International Energy Agency, supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.85 million barrels a day (bpd) in 2026. This is equivalent to around 4% global demand. OPEC analysts, however, see a largely balancing market in the coming year. This is one of sharpest forecast differences seen in decades. China's massive crude stockpiling has exacerbated the uncertainty about supply-demand. These volumes are not well known by traders, but they are believed to be large, at around 500,000 bpd. The IEA is more likely to prove correct in the end. Kpler data shows that oil transported or stored on tankers reached its highest level in the last few weeks since April 2020 when consumption plummeted due to COVID-19 locksdowns. These elevated seaborne inventories suggest that onshore stocks may start to fill soon, adding further downwards pressure on prices. The LNG Wave is coming The demand for liquefied gas has increased in recent years. This is because Europe wants to replace the large volumes of Russian pipeline natural gas that it imported prior to Moscow's invasion in Ukraine in 2022. As global export capacity increases, the boom may no longer be as profitable for LNG producers and traders. According to the IEA's estimates, between?2025- 2030, the new LNG export capability is expected to increase by 300 billion cubic meters per year. This represents a 50% increase, and around 45% of this capacity will come from the U.S. Over the next few years, supply is expected to exceed demand growth. This will squeeze margins for producers and offer some relief to consumers in Europe and Asia. The rising price of natural gas in the United States is another problem for producers. Still, there are some reasons for optimism among producers. LNG prices will continue to fall in 2026, and beyond. This power source, which is more competitive than other fuels like oil and coal as they become cheaper, could boost demand. DIESEL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES The diesel profit margins rose this year. They gained momentum in the last half-year as the refined product market was faced with supply constraints, even though the world was increasingly awash in crude oil. According to LSEG, the benchmark European diesel refining profit margins increased 30% in 2025 compared to a 20% decline in Brent crude in 2025. This is largely because of a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, oil terminals and other oil facilities, which resulted in a drop in diesel exports by late 2025. The trend is expected continue until 2026 as there are relatively few new refinery capacities coming on line. The calculus would be altered if there was a peace agreement in Ukraine, but it is likely to offer only limited relief. BIG OIL EXPECTS BRIGHTER FURTURE Oil and Gas companies are preparing for strong headwinds by 2026. Chevron, TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil have all announced cost reductions of around 10% for the next year. The oil majors are also quite optimistic about the long-term prospects. The oil majors are investing more in exploration and new projects that will be online in this decade or early 2030s. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other major Middle East oil producers are also preparing for a new upstream investment era. The long-term bullishness could lead Western oil majors – most of whom have solid balance sheets with?relatively little debt, BP being the notable exception – to take advantage of the anticipated 2026 downturn in order to buy up struggling competitors. RENEWABLES Down But Not Out The IEA lowered its forecast of renewable?power through 2030 in October by a fifth, or 248 Gigawatts. This was due to weaker prospects for the U.S. Solar is expected to account for 80% of this increase in global renewable capacity by 2030. However, the demand for electricity will still grow by 4% annually by 2027. This is due to the power-hungry data centers and the electrification in general of economies. The world's energy markets will be dominated by this tension in 2026, especially as solar, wind, and battery storage costs are expected to continue to fall. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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Five energy market trends in 2026: Bousso
The energy markets are in a negative mood for 2026, as geopolitical uncertainties cloud the outlook. In addition, signs of a growing oil and gas supply threaten to lower prices. The oil and gas industry had a crazy year in 2017, highlighted by the 12-day Israel/Iran conflict that erupted in June. The trade wars of President Donald Trump, the increased targeting of energy infrastructure by Russia during its war against Ukraine and OPEC’s sometimes perplexing decisions on production are all examples. What's next for the energy sector? Five trends that will likely shape the energy sector in 2026, and beyond. The Year of the GLUT Investors will be focusing on signs of swollen oil inventories in the coming year, after crude prices dropped nearly 20% to $60 per barrel by 2025 on fear of a significant oversupply. The global oil production has risen over the last year. The U.S., the world's largest oil producer, increased production as did Canada, Brazil and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia. According to the International Energy Agency, supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.85 million barrels a day (bpd) in 2026. This is equivalent to around 4% global demand. OPEC analysts, however, see a largely balancing market in the coming year. This is one of sharpest forecast differences seen in decades. The uncertainty about the balance between supply and demand has been exacerbated by China's massive crude stockpiling, which began in April. These volumes are not well known by traders, but they are believed to be large, at around 500,000 barrels per day, according to calculations. The IEA is more likely to prove correct in the end. According to Kpler, the amount of oil being "transported" or "stored" on tankers reached its highest level in recent weeks since April 2020 when consumption plummeted due to COVID-19 locksdowns. These elevated seaborne inventories suggest that onshore stocks may start to fill soon, adding further downwards pressure on prices. The LNG Wave is coming The demand for liquefied gas has risen in recent years as Europe seeks to replace the large volumes of Russian pipeline natural gas that it imported prior to Moscow's invasion in Ukraine in 2022. As global export capacity increases, the boom may no longer be profitable for LNG producers or traders. According to the IEA's estimates, between 2025 and 2030 the new LNG export capability is expected to increase by 300 billion cubic meters per year. This represents a 50% increase. Around 45% of this capacity will come from the U.S. Over the same time period, supply is expected to exceed demand growth. This will squeeze producers' margins while offering some relief to consumers in Europe and Asia. The rising price of natural gas in the United States is another problem for producers. Still, there are some reasons for optimism among producers. LNG prices will continue to fall in 2026, and beyond. This power source, which is more competitive than other fuels like oil and coal as they become cheaper, could boost demand. DIESEL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES The diesel profit margins rose this year. They gained momentum in the last half-year as the refined product market was faced with supply constraints, even though the world was increasingly awash in crude oil. According to LSEG, the benchmark European diesel refining profit margins increased 30% in 2025 compared with a drop of 20% in Brent crude oil prices. This is largely because of a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil terminals and refineries, which resulted in a drop in diesel exports by late 2025. The trend is expected continue until 2026 as there are relatively few new refinery capacities coming on line. The calculus would be altered if there was a peace agreement in Ukraine, but it is likely to offer only limited relief. BIG OIL EXPECTS BRIGHTER FURTURE Oil and gas firms are preparing for a turbulent 2026. Chevron and TotalEnergies all announced cost reductions and lowered their spending plans by 10% for the next year. The oil majors are also quite optimistic about the long-term prospects. They spend more on exploration, and invest in new projects that are expected to come online in this decade or early 2030s. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other major Middle East oil producers are also preparing for a new phase of upstream investment. Western oil majors, most of whom have solid balance sheets and relatively low debt (BP is an exception), may use the anticipated 2026 downturn as an opportunity to buy struggling rivals. RENEWABLES Down But Not Out The IEA lowered its forecast for renewable power growth in 2030 by a fifth, or 248 Gigawatts compared to last year, citing weaker outlooks in the U.S. Solar is expected to account for 80% of this increase in global renewable capacity by 2030. The demand for electricity will still grow by 4 percent per year in 2027 due to the power-hungry data centers and the electrification and growth of the economy. However, governments and businesses may slow down energy transition plans under the pretext of energy security. The world's energy markets will be dominated by this tension in 2026, especially as solar, wind, and battery storage costs are expected to continue to fall. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights and links trending stories in your mailbox every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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As modernization takes hold, Kolkata's iconic trams will be put to rest.
Since more than a hundred years, trams in Kolkata have been rumbling past the crumbling colonial façades. Their chiming bells added to 'the soundtrack of the city' as they transported generations of commuters. Asia's oldest tram network is now on the verge of disappearing, as authorities are considering?pulling?the plug on an outdated mode of transportation that has become more of a nostalgia than a necessity. West Bengal plans to close the 152 year-old system and keep only a short heritage line. Residents and heritage advocates are fighting to keep the trams running. Abha Maity (44), recalled the rides she took to and from school. "I cannot imagine Kolkata without trams." Kolkata's wobbly, old trams are now battling for space in traffic jams with yellow taxis and buses as the city builds new infrastructure. In 1873, Kolkata began using horse-drawn trams. They were electrified in 1902. The network had more than 340 trams at its peak and covered the whole city. Only two routes and a fleet of around 10 trams remain today. When I started, there were more than 340 trams running. "Now it's only seven or eight," said Bacchu sidda. A conductor of 36 years, Sidda still checks his duty list pinned to a board in the last working depot at Gariahat. A citizens' group, the Calcutta Tram Users Association(CTUA), took their fight to court after the government started selling depots and scrapping cars years ago. CTUA has been campaigning since 2016 to preserve what is left of the system. Deep Das, a 19-year-old journalism student and CTUA Member said: "I love trams more than I do myself." If they disappear, it would be like losing a piece of myself. The authorities, despite resistance, are investing billions in upgrading the infrastructure of?Kolkata, with a focus on wider roads, new highways and metro expansion to reduce congestion. The fate of Kolkata's trams is currently awaiting a court decision. They continue to carry passengers who see them as a living memory of the city's history. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Sahibachawdhary)
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China blames military drills around disputed Shoal for reef damage
China, without naming a country, said that "military training such as bomb-dropping in the waters around Scarborough Shoal" has damaged coral reefs. State broadcaster CCTV cited an ecological report. The natural resources ministry of the country also said that the "illegal fishing", and the frequent intrusion activities in recent years, have posed a threat to the ecosystem surrounding the shoal. Both China and the Philippines claim territorial rights over Scarborough Shoal. This is one of Asia's most contentious maritime features, prized for its rich fishing grounds, its protected lagoon, and its proximity to major shipping routes. But sovereignty has never been established. Although Filipino boats continue operating there, it is under the control of Beijing. In September, China approved the creation of a nature reserve on the shoal. The Philippines called this plan a "clear excuse for occupation".
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South Korean President vows to reveal the truth on anniversary Jeju Air crash
Lee Jae Myung, South Korean president, apologized to the families of 179 people who lost their lives in the Jeju Air crash that occurred a year ago. He also promised to uncover the "truth" behind the accident. In a statement released on Monday, Lee apologized for his actions. Families of victims are demanding answers after investigators delayed the release of a report about what happened on December 29, 2024 when the Jeju Air plane crashed-landed into an embankment near the end?of the runway. The 181 passengers on board were?all but two? killed when the plane exploded in a ball if flames. In a January preliminary report, the government-led Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board stated that both engines of the plane had been damaged by bird strikes. There are still questions about the safety of the runway, what the pilots did in the last minutes of the flight and the design?of Muan International Airport. Lee stated that "the disaster revealed the systematic problems and limitations in our society." What's needed is real change, not empty words or perfunctory promises. The Parliament has been reviewing the plan to revamp the Aircraft Accident Investigation Board to ensure greater expertise and independence. A memorial service will be held by relatives of the victims at the Muan International airport in the southwest of the country to mark the anniversary. (Reporting and editing by Thomas Derpinghaus; Jack Kim)
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Mexican train derailment kills 13
Mexican authorities said that on Sunday, at least 13 people were killed when an Interoceanic Train?derailed?in the southern state of Oaxaca. The Mexican Navy reported that the train derailed near Nizanda was carrying 250 passengers, including nine crew and 241 passengers. Of the 193 passengers, 193 were reported as being in a safe condition, while 98 others were injured. Claudia Sheinbaum, the president of X, said that five of the injured are in critical condition. She added that senior officials have been dispatched to the scene to help the families. In a post on social media, Ernestina Godoy Ramos, Mexico's Attorney-General's Office said that an investigation had already been opened into the incident. The Interoceanic Train will be inaugurated by former President Andres Lopez Obrador in 2023 as part of a larger project called the Interoceanic Corridor. The project was to modernize rail links across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. It would connect Mexico's Pacific Port of Salina Cruz and Coatzacoalcos, on the Gulf Coast. The Mexican government is working to turn the isthmus of the country into a strategic trade corridor, by expanding ports, railroads, and industrial infrastructure, with the goal of competing with the Panama Canal. The train service is part of an effort to expand passenger rail and freight rail services in southern Mexico, and to stimulate economic growth in the region. (Reporting and editing by Tom Hogue, Michael Perry and Natalia Siniawski)
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Woodside LNG signs LNG supply agreement with BOTAS
Woodside Energy, a subsidiary of Australia's Woodside Energy, announced on Monday that it has signed a contract with the Turkish state-owned oil company BOTAS for delivering?around 5.8 billion cubic metres?of liquefied gas?for up to nine years starting in 2030. The non-binding heads agreement signed in September by the two parties is now a binding commitment. The agreement stipulates that LNG will be supplied primarily from the Louisiana LNG project, which is currently under construction in the United States, with additional supplies coming from Woodside, Australia’s largest natural gas producer. Woodside's Louisiana Gas Complex, the largest foreign investment in the history of the southern state, was the U.S.'s first LNG project to be given the green light after Donald Trump took office in January, and promised to unleash "U.S. Energy is the future. The project was approved in late April. It is scheduled to begin delivering gas in 2029. Mark Abbotsford, Woodside's Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, said: "This LNG supply agreement with BOTAS is a significant milestone for Woodside as it represents our first long-term arrangement to provide LNG to the Turkish market." Woodside is also grateful for the support of the Turkish and United States governments following the announcement earlier this year of the HOA.
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Flash floods in southern Spain cause one death and two missing
Overflowing rivers washed away motorcycles and cars, and authorities warned people to stay inside. Authorities in Valencia, where the deadly floods that occurred in October of last year caused damage worth billions of Euros and killed more than 220 people, sent red alerts to people's mobile phones on Sunday night, urging them not to leave their homes and stay on high ground. Eight other provinces also issued an orange alert, warning residents of the serious dangers to their property or themselves and to prepare for worsening conditions. Heavy rains last year in Valencia caught authorities by surprise. Many blamed local and national officials who warned people too late. This led to the resignation of the regional leader. According to a post on their X page, the Civil Guard of Spain found a body in Malaga. The man's van had been swept away Sunday by an overflowing stream. The second passenger was still missing. According to the state news agency EFE, emergency teams are also searching for a teenager in Granada that was swept away while trying to cross a riverbed with a motorcycle. In Barcelona, Catalonia, ?a woman was hospitalised on Saturday after being hit by a lamppost torn down by 70-kilometre-per-hour winds, the regional government's civil protection agency told Europa Press. (Reporting and editing by William Maclean, Victoria Waldersee)
Indonesian authorities find body of Spanish soccer coach during search for drowned Spanish children
Indonesian rescuers found a dead body on Monday while searching for Spanish soccer coach Fernando Martin, his children and their boat after it sank on Friday near the coast of an?popular tourist destination.
Martin was a coach for the Spanish club Valencia CF. The club confirmed that he and three of his children had died in a tragic boating accident in Indonesia.
Authorities said that the boat Martin was on with his family capsized Friday due to an engine failure in bad weather conditions near Labuan Bajo. This location is close to the Komodo National 'Park, a UNESCO World Heritage Site where rare Komodo Dragons live.
Fathur Rahman is the chief of Fathur Rahman's local search and rescue agency. He said that they had recovered the body of a woman "highly suspect of being a victim". He added that authorities are trying to identify the victim.
Fathur added that the search will continue into Tuesday despite strong currents, high waves and other factors.
The accident was survived by Martin's wife and daughter, four crew members, and a guide. The boat was carrying 11 people.
The Indonesian tourism ministry announced on Sunday that tour boats are temporarily banned from sailing in the waters of Labuan Bajo or the Komodo islands.
A speedboat with?21 passengers capsized near Indonesia's Papua on?Monday,?leaving 17 people dead and 1 missing. An official from the local search and rescue agency confirmed this.
In Indonesia, an archipelago with more than 17,000 islands and bad weather, boats and ferries have become a common mode of transportation. Accidents are often caused by lax safety regulations and overloaded vessels. (Reporting and editing by David Stanway; Stanley Widianto)
(source: Reuters)