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Five energy market trends in 2026: Bousso

The energy markets are in a negative mood for 2026, as geopolitical uncertainties cloud the outlook. In addition, signs of a growing oil and gas supply threaten to lower prices.

The oil and gas industry had a crazy year in 2017, highlighted by the 12-day Israel/Iran conflict that erupted in June. The trade wars of President Donald Trump, the increased targeting of energy infrastructure by Russia during its war against Ukraine and OPEC’s sometimes perplexing decisions on production are all examples.

What's next for the energy sector? Five trends that will likely shape the energy sector in 2026, and beyond.

The Year of the GLUT

Investors will be focusing on signs of swollen oil inventories in the coming year, after crude prices dropped nearly 20% to $60 per barrel by 2025 on fear of a significant oversupply.

The global oil production has risen over the last year. The U.S., the world's largest oil producer, increased production as did Canada, Brazil and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia.

According to the International Energy Agency, supply is expected to exceed demand by 3.85 million barrels a day (bpd) in 2026. This is equivalent to around 4% global demand.

OPEC analysts, however, see a largely balancing market in the coming year. This is one of sharpest forecast differences seen in decades. The uncertainty about the balance between supply and demand has been exacerbated by China's massive crude stockpiling, which began in April. These volumes are not well known by traders, but they are believed to be large, at around 500,000 barrels per day, according to calculations.

The IEA is more likely to prove correct in the end. According to Kpler, the amount of oil being "transported" or "stored" on tankers reached its highest level in recent weeks since April 2020 when consumption plummeted due to COVID-19 locksdowns. These elevated seaborne inventories suggest that onshore stocks may start to fill soon, adding further downwards pressure on prices.

The LNG Wave is coming

The demand for liquefied gas has risen in recent years as Europe seeks to replace the large volumes of Russian pipeline natural gas that it imported prior to Moscow's invasion in Ukraine in 2022.

As global export capacity increases, the boom may no longer be profitable for LNG producers or traders.

According to the IEA's estimates, between 2025 and 2030 the new LNG export capability is expected to increase by 300 billion cubic meters per year. This represents a 50% increase. Around 45% of this capacity will come from the U.S.

Over the same time period, supply is expected to exceed demand growth. This will squeeze producers' margins while offering some relief to consumers in Europe and Asia. The rising price of natural gas in the United States is another problem for producers.

Still, there are some reasons for optimism among producers. LNG prices will continue to fall in 2026, and beyond. This power source, which is more competitive than other fuels like oil and coal as they become cheaper, could boost demand.

DIESEL PERFORMANCE CONTINUES

The diesel profit margins rose this year. They gained momentum in the last half-year as the refined product market was faced with supply constraints, even though the world was increasingly awash in crude oil.

According to LSEG, the benchmark European diesel refining profit margins increased 30% in 2025 compared with a drop of 20% in Brent crude oil prices. This is largely because of a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil terminals and refineries, which resulted in a drop in diesel exports by late 2025.

The trend is expected continue until 2026 as there are relatively few new refinery capacities coming on line. The calculus would be altered if there was a peace agreement in Ukraine, but it is likely to offer only limited relief.

BIG OIL EXPECTS BRIGHTER FURTURE Oil and gas firms are preparing for a turbulent 2026. Chevron and TotalEnergies all announced cost reductions and lowered their spending plans by 10% for the next year. The oil majors are also quite optimistic about the long-term prospects. They spend more on exploration, and invest in new projects that are expected to come online in this decade or early 2030s. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other major Middle East oil producers are also preparing for a new phase of upstream investment.

Western oil majors, most of whom have solid balance sheets and relatively low debt (BP is an exception), may use the anticipated 2026 downturn as an opportunity to buy struggling rivals.

RENEWABLES Down But Not Out

The IEA lowered its forecast for renewable power growth in 2030 by a fifth, or 248 Gigawatts compared to last year, citing weaker outlooks in the U.S. Solar is expected to account for 80% of this increase in global renewable capacity by 2030.

The demand for electricity will still grow by 4 percent per year in 2027 due to the power-hungry data centers and the electrification and growth of the economy. However, governments and businesses may slow down energy transition plans under the pretext of energy security.

The world's energy markets will be dominated by this tension in 2026, especially as solar, wind, and battery storage costs are expected to continue to fall.

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(source: Reuters)