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Sources say that exports of Russian Arctic oil sanctioned to China are expected to increase in April.

The export of Russian Arctic oil to China is expected to increase sharply in April, after sellers offered large discounts and shipped on non-sanctioned tanks to counter an embargo by the United States. This was according to two Russian oil traders and analytics firm Vortexa.

The Arctic oil trade accounts for a tenth (or 10%) of Russia's seaborne crude oil exports. This business was disrupted when Washington imposed sweeping sanctions in January against nearly all tankers that carried supplies of grades like ARCO, Novy port, Varandey and Gazprom Neft.

The traders and Vortexa Senior Analyst Emma Li said that to avoid the curbs such cargoes are transferred via international waters near Singapore and Malaysia, to Very Large Crude Carriers without sanction, a transfer process known as Ship-to-Ship (STS), before they head to China.

Li estimates that at least 4,000,000 barrels of Arctic Oil completed STS last Monday and 16,000,000 more are arriving, or will arrive in the South China Sea during this month.

The abundant supply of Arctic oil will likely lead to a rebound in China's imports. However, the final volume discharged may vary depending on logistical challenges and the buying interest of Chinese refiners.

Lukoil and Gazprom Neft didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.

In March, China imported 250.000 barrels of Arctic oil per day.

A trader said that such transfers were used by many Chinese buyers who require their oil to be transported on vessels not sanctioned to avoid secondary sanctions. They are also willing to pay a higher price for these cargoes.

Kpler data show that, for example, non-sanctioned VLCC Atila discharged 2.07 million barrels ARCO from two sanctioned tanks in Greater Singapore waters in March and then loaded the cargo in Dongying Port in eastern Shandong Province in April.

Atila was previously involved in STS transfer for Iranian oil.

The harsh climate in the northern regions of Russia affects production and logistics. Therefore, setting up a project to produce oil requires huge investments.

Lukoil produces light Varandey, while Gazprom is the producer of heavy ARCO and Novy Port.

The traders stated that the STS adds to the shipping costs and delays the shipments to China by two months.

One trader stated that the route was very expensive and long. "The only solution is to evacuate the barrels."

The traders stated that light Arctic oil was offered at a discount to Brent prices, compared to the premiums charged previously.

Traders said that India, the former top buyer of Arctic Oil, has reduced purchases due to sanctions. Traders said that Litasco supplies most of the Varandey oil to India.

The Indian authorities have prohibited a tanker from moving its Russian oil cargo on to another vessel in the sea.

Myanmar and Syria are also potential buyers of Arctic oil. The first shipments took place in the early part of this year.

(source: Reuters)