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Bousso: The oil fortress of China will change the global order.
China surprised the oil industry during the Iran War, using powerful levers in order to protect itself from?the biggest energy shock for decades. It established itself as an independent, opaque and massive force on the global energy market. China's?measures to counter the energy supply shock - slashing crude imports, limiting exports of refined petroleum products and drawing from domestic stocks - culminated in decades long campaign to reduce heavy?dependence upon overseas energy supplies. This gives a hint at how future crises could unfold. China's assertive strategy may be a sign of a future where blind spots in the energy market will matter more than data. It also suggests we may be entering a new era where China's energy dynamic is a weapon, both offensive and defensive - rather than a vulnerability. DIAL UP or DIAL DOWN China was largely insulated from the price volatility following the war in Iran that began on February 28. Brent crude soared from $72 to $118 a barrel in late March after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. By early July, it had returned to its pre-war level. In recent days, the global benchmark rose again as U.S. - Iran strikes increased. Beijing stopped purchasing oil as prices increased. Customs data revealed that June deliveries fell by more than 41% compared to a year ago, reaching 7.12 million barrels a day (bpd), their lowest level since Oct. 2016. This continued a steep decline in May. Customs data showed that the scale of the decline, which surprised many analysts and traders, was a crucial factor in allowing the global economy to absorb a loss of more than 13 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern exports. This shift was particularly striking, given China's significance to the world oil markets. In 2025, China imported an unprecedented 11,55 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly two thirds of its total oil consumption and 16 percent of the global demand. This dependence could have rendered China vulnerable to disruptions in Gulf supply. Beijing was well-prepared for the crisis. China's 4,4% rise in crude imports was largely due to an aggressive stockpiling program that resulted in an estimated 1.3 to 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil in storage. This is equivalent to over 100 days?of average imports. However, reducing imports was just one part of the strategy. China suspended the export of refined products in March to ensure that its domestic market would be well-supplied. The controversial move concerned 'Asian countries including Australia, Bangladesh, and the Philippines who were already struggling with acute fuel shortages. Beijing will export around 800,000 barrels per day of fuels by 2025. This is about 12% of Asian refined oil imports. In July, the government eased some of its restrictions to relieve Asia's fuel markets. The episode showed how quickly Beijing could tighten supply if conditions worsened again. OIL FORTRESS MINDSET What is China's strongest line of defense -- its huge oil stockpile - has only been used sparingly, suggesting Beijing has considerable dry powder. Beijing does not provide official data about inventory levels and movements. Traders and policymakers must rely on indirect indicators to get a picture. Calculations based on crude exports and domestic production less refinery throughput suggest that inventories decreased between April and July by a modest rate of 500 000 to 1 million barrels per day. Beijing reduced refining instead, which limited the inventory draw. The June throughput, at around?12,5 million bpd was 18% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level seen since March 2020 when the COVID-19 Pandemic peaked. China's capacity to release stocks on a larger scale remains largely untested. The Hormuz Crisis showed that Beijing has a tool to reshape global oil balances. Beijing has also steadily decreased its dependence on oil imports, by increasing domestic production. This reached a record of 4.3 million bpd in last year. Electric vehicles are reducing demand and reducing its strategic importance. These trends, taken together, suggest that China's position in the global energy system is changing. PRICE TAKER TO PRICES MAKER China was seen as the largest oil consumer in the world for decades. Its consumption was heavily influenced by global conditions. Iran's crisis proved that it could also affect those conditions. China's ability to quickly adjust imports and exports, up or down, effectively transforms it into a price maker. This role is traditionally associated with OPEC, Russia, and more recently the U.S. Oil is not the only issue. China's ability to withstand a major shock in fuel supply while reshaping global and regional fuel flows has shown that it is less dependent on international energy markets. This marks a significant break from the deep interdependence of energy that characterized the last two decades. This resilience is obviously advantageous to Beijing but a less dependent energy relationship creates new tensions. Tensions with the U.S., and other major customers could rise as China is able to 'isolate itself from global shocks' and influence market balances in its own way. The greatest impact of the Iran 'war' may not have been the chaos it caused but rather the fact that China has the ability to handle such shocks on its own. This could have a profound impact on the global oil markets, as well as the balance of power in the world. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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SoftBank to buy a full stake in Boston Dynamics from Hyundai Motor Group
Hyundai Motor Group announced on Thursday that it will make U.S. robotics company Boston Dynamics its wholly-owned subsidiary by acquiring SoftBank Group’s 10% stake. This'move', it said, would allow it to deploy advanced robots throughout its operations. The terms of the agreement were not disclosed. The local media reported that the transaction was likely to be worth around 500 billion won (335 million dollars) last month. The deal will give Hyundai Motor Group more strategic flexibility in managing Boston Dynamics. This will allow the automaker to take long-term investments and business strategies, as well as make a possible initial public offering. ROBOTICS PUSH MEETS LABOUR TENSE Hyundai will begin to deploy Atlas, Boston Dynamics’ humanoid robot, in a Georgia manufacturing plant from 2028. By 2030, the robot's role will likely expand to include a wider range of manufacturing processes including component assembly. According to Yonhap News Agency, the acquisition comes at a time when Hyundai Motor's South Korean union intensified its industrial action in relation to annual wage negotiations. They staged?two-hour-partial strikes on Monday through Wednesday. The union demanded that 30% of the net income be set aside for bonuses, and job security to ensure. They also expressed concern over the increasing use of robots and artificial intelligence on assembly lines. A union leader has said that the world's third largest carmaker, together with its affiliate Kia Corp., which is developing humanoid robotics, appears to plan to replace humans with new technologies. According to the union, Hyundai's 24,676 workers who are unionised will retire on average every year by 2032. The union stated that if the company did not hire more workers, union membership could fall by almost 10,000 or 40% by 2032. In 2021, Hyundai will own 80% of Boston Dynamics. Market Focuses on Valuation Investors focused on the implications of Boston Dynamics' valuation rather than Thursday's announcement. Analysts say investors expected that the purchase of SoftBank’s remaining stake would provide greater clarity about Boston Dynamics’?valuation, and possibly act as a catalyst to the automaker’s shares. Shin Yoonchul of Kiwoom Securities said that the transaction price "implied an estimated valuation of about 5 trillion won" for Boston Dynamics. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed. Shin explained that the market's muted reaction indicated investors were unsure if the previous valuation assigned to the robotics firm was justified. Instead, they viewed the deal as Hyundai Motor Group purchasing SoftBank stakes at a discounted price. He stated that if the company had exercised its call options, which become exercisable on 21st July at a greater strike price, it would have implied an increased?valuation of Boston Dynamics. The deal, instead, removed what investors thought would be a catalyst for a revaluation of the robotics company in the near future. Since local media reported in the first place last month that SoftBank planned to purchase Boston Dynamics' remaining stake, Hyundai Motor shares are down more than 30%. Hyundai Motor closed Thursday with a 2.1% decline, compared to a 6.4% drop for the benchmark KOSPI.
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New Delhi warns shipowners against using Indian seafarers along the Hormuz route
India has instructed shipowners, managers and recruitment agencies not to use seafarers from the country on vessels traveling through 'the Strait of Hormuz'. This is due to renewed fighting in the region. According to data from the government, India is third in the world for seafarers. More than 300,000 sailors work across global shipping fleets. In an order late Wednesday, the Directorate General of Shipping stated that "no Indian seafarers will be deployed on vessels undertaking voyages involving passages through the Strait of Hormuz." In the last three days two Indian seafarers were killed as tensions in the Middle East escalated. The shipping regulator stated that recent?attacks against vessels have "significantly" increased the risk faced by seafarers, and commercial ships operating within the conflict-affected region. The order stated that "in view of the increased security situation in the Persian Gulf Region... the Directorate considers it necessary to take enhanced precautionary measures in order to safeguard the interests" of Indian seafarers who are serving on ships in the region. The 'Directory also directed the masters of vessels to be vigilant in regard to the'security situation of the Persian Gulf,?Strait of Hormuz, and adjacent waters and called for continuous monitoring of navigational warnings. New Delhi also "lodged" a strong protest with Iran by summoning the deputy ambassador for one of Tuesday's deaths. Reporting by Nidhi verma, Writing by Hritam mukherjee, Editing by Edwina gibbs
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Maguire: Europe's next energy crisis is right in front of us.
The energy traders of Europe have been glued to Gulf maps in recent weeks. The Rhine should be on their radar. The renewed 'confrontation' between Washington and Tehran is pushing oil prices up and reviving fears about the safety of shipping through Strait of Hormuz. But there is another threat that is much closer to home. The water levels in key inland shipping gauges, including Cologne and Kaub (on the Rhine) and Budapest (on the Danube), have dropped to a level that is rarely seen except during major droughts. This has forced barges and their cargo loads to be reduced and increased transport costs. Low rivers can be an inconvenience on their own. When combined with the rising geopolitical tensions of the Middle East they become more dangerous. KEY TRADE ROUTES The rivers of Europe are the secret arteries that run through its energy system. Fuel imported via Rotterdam and Amsterdam must still be transported inland to refineries and chemical plants, as well as industrial consumers. Every ton of coal or diesel, gasoline, chemicals, biofuel, or other fuels that is not transported by barge requires additional vessels, higher rates, and longer delivery time. While renewed U.S. Iran hostilities threaten oil flow through Hormuz once again and drive energy prices higher, Europe's shrinking waters risk turning an external shock into a much broader logistic crisis. The timing of this attack could not be worse. The Rhine is the most important commercial waterway in Europe. The Rhine is used by the German industry to transport around?200 millions of tons of goods each year, including fuels and industrial materials. Water levels at Kaub, the most critical bottleneck on the river, have fallen to an exceptionally low level for July. This has forced vessels to sail partially loaded. Depending on the vessel type and route, some operators have reported freight reductions up to 80%. The Danube also tells a story. Budapest's water levels are now at lows that are more often associated with droughts in the late summer. Shipping companies report that vessels are operating at a fraction of their normal capacity. Freight surcharges have also risen as operators try to compensate for the reduced cargo volume. Stress Test The European energy system is increasingly dependent on flexibility in logistics. After the loss of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, Europe rebuilt energy security by importing LNG, oil products, and alternative fuels via seaborne imports. As long as the cargoes can reach European ports, the markets will be adequately supplied. Ports are just the beginning. The Rhine links Germany's industrial heartland with North Sea import terminals. The Rhine is a major transport route for coal for power plants, chemical feedstocks and petroleum products for inland consumers. When river levels collapse, cargo is shifted to rail and trucking systems that are already congested and expensive. It is not always a shortage. It is more often a dramatic rise in the cost of delivery that directly affects energy and industrial costs. MOUNTING FEES Economic damage is not a theoretical concept. In previous Rhine droughts (notably in 2018), Germany suffered measurable industrial disruptions and losses of output. This episode taught us that river levels are macroeconomic variables. When barges are not moving efficiently, industrial production, fuel distribution, and profitability all suffer. Add the Middle East to your list. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's largest oil transit chokepoint. Oil prices have already risen due to attacks on ships, military strikes and increasing threats. Concerns about tanker movements are also back. The increased risk of a total closure will increase insurance, freight, and commodity costs. The interaction of these two risks poses a danger to Europe. Oil prices are usually absorbed. Usually, temporary shipping disruptions can be managed. Low river levels are usually manageable. When all three occur simultaneously, however, the system is significantly less resilient. European refiners could face higher crude prices?because there are tensions in the Gulf, while distributors struggle to move fuels into the inland due to restricted barge traffic. Chemical producers may face rising feedstock costs at the same time as logistics costs rise. Utility companies may find that alternative fuels are readily available in ports, but are more difficult and expensive to transport to the places where they are required. Each problem reinforces each other. The energy supply chain in Europe is beginning to look like a funnel. RISK STACK INTERTWINED Ironically, policymakers are increasingly separating climate change from geopolitics and recommending separate solutions. Recent events indicate that they are becoming deeply intertwined. Heatwaves and dry conditions are not only lowering Europe's river levels, but also increasing electricity demand. This puts pressure on the energy infrastructure. Geopolitical conflict has also reduced the margin of error in global fuel markets. What appears to be a weather issue in Germany could quickly turn into an energy security concern across Europe. It is important that traders pay attention to the river gauges in Kaub and Budapest, as well as to the missile launches taking place in the Gulf. The other measures the risk of geopolitical conflict. One measures geopolitical risk. For decades, Europe’s energy security was shaped primarily by tankers, pipelines and diplomacy. It may increasingly be shaped by rain. As rivers shrink and conflicts increase, the continent learns an uncomfortable truth. Sometimes the most dangerous energy chokepoints are not halfway across the world but right in your backyard. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Bousso: The oil fortress of China will change the global order.
China surprised the oil industry during the Iran War, using powerful levers in order to protect itself from the largest energy shock for decades. It established itself as an independent, opaque and massive force on the global energy market. China's efforts to counter the "energy supply shock" -- a sharp cut in crude imports, a restriction on exports of refined fuels, and a reliance on its domestic stocks -- culminated ten years of campaigning to reduce China's heavy reliance on foreign energy supplies. This gives a glimpse of how future crises might unfold. China's assertive policy, despite the lack of transparency surrounding many Beijing's policies, points to a future where energy market blind spots could be more important than visible data. It also suggests we may be entering a new era where China's energy dynamic is a weapon, both offensive and defensive - rather than a vulnerability. DIAL UP or DIAL DOWN China was insulated from the price volatility following the war in Iran that began on February 28. Brent crude soared from $72 to $118 a barrel in late March after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. By early July, it had returned to its pre-war level. In recent days, the global benchmark rose again as U.S. - Iran strikes increased. Beijing stopped purchasing as prices increased. Customs data revealed that June deliveries fell by more than 41% compared to a year ago, reaching 7.12 million barrels a day (bpd), their lowest level since Oct. 2016. This continued a steep decline in May. The magnitude of the slowdown that caught many analysts and traders off guard was a crucial factor in allowing the global economy absorb the loss of more than 13 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern exports. This shift was particularly striking, given China's significance to the world oil markets. In 2025, China imported an unprecedented 11,55 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly two thirds of its total oil consumption and 16 percent of the global demand. This dependence made China highly vulnerable to disruptions in Gulf supply. Beijing was well-prepared for the crisis. China's 4,4% increase in crude oil imports was largely due to an aggressive stockpiling program that resulted in an estimated 1.3 to 1.5 billion barrels of crude in storage. This is equivalent to over 100 days worth of imports. However, reducing?imports is only one part of the strategy. China suspended the export of refined products in March to ensure that its domestic market is well-supplied. The controversial move concerned Asian countries such as?Australia and the Philippines who were already struggling with acute fuel shortages. Beijing will export around 800,000 barrels per day of fuels by 2025. This is about 12% of Asian refined oil imports. In July, the government eased some of its restrictions to relieve Asia's fuel markets. The episode showed how quickly Beijing could tighten supply if conditions worsened again. OIL FORTRESS MINDSET What is China's strongest line of defense -- its huge oil stockpile -- was only deployed sparingly, suggesting Beijing has considerable dry powder. Beijing does not provide official data about inventory levels and movements. Traders and policymakers must rely on indirect indicators to get a picture. Calculations based on crude exports and domestic production less refinery throughput suggest that inventories declined between April and July by a modest rate of 500 000 to 1 million barrels per day. Beijing reduced refining instead, which led to a limited inventory draw. The June throughput, at 12.5 million?bpd was 18% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest since March 2020 when COVID-19 reached its peak. China's capacity to release stocks on a larger scale remains untested. The Hormuz Crisis showed that Beijing has a tool to radically alter the global oil balance. Beijing has also steadily decreased its dependence on oil imports, by increasing domestic production. This reached a record of 4.3 million bpd in last year. Electric vehicles are reducing demand and reducing its strategic importance. These trends, taken together, suggest that China's position in the global energy system is changing. PRICE TAKER TO PRICES MAKER China has been viewed as the largest oil consumer in the world for decades. Its consumption was heavily influenced by global conditions. Iran's crisis proved that it could also affect those conditions. China's ability to quickly adjust imports and exports, up or down, effectively transforms it into a price maker. This role is traditionally associated with major producers like OPEC, Russia, and more recently the U.S. Oil is not the only issue. China has shown that it is less dependent on international energy markets by demonstrating its ability to withstand a major shock in the supply of fuel while reshaping global and regional fuel flows. This marks a significant break from the deep interdependence of energy that characterized the last two decades. This resilience is obvious for Beijing but a less dependent energy relationship creates new frictions. China's ability to withstand global shocks, and influence market balances in its own way, could lead to tensions with the U.S. The greatest impact of the Iran 'war may not have been the chaos it caused, but rather the fact that China has the ability to handle such shocks on its own. This could have a profound impact on the global oil markets, as well as the balance of power in the world. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Russia claims to have struck military targets in Kyiv and Ukrainian ports
The Russian defence ministry announced on Thursday that it had struck military and industrial facilities in Kyiv and infrastructure in Odesa, Pivdennyi, and Odesa ports as well as a vessel. Moscow and Kyiv both intensified their attacks against key economic targets. Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian energy infrastructure including oil tankers. Meanwhile, Russia has intensified attacks on Black Sea ports over the past few weeks. Officials in Ukraine said that Russian missiles?hit at least two districts?in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv?early on Thursday morning, causing fires and killing 2 people. The Russian defence ministry has said that it struck Ukrainian military and industrial sites in Kyiv, which were involved in the production and storage medium- and longer-range drones. The government also stated that it was targeting infrastructure facilities in the ports of Odesa and Pivdennyi which are used for receiving, storing and handling military cargoes and fuel. The Russian Defence Ministry said that a maritime?vessel as well as a high-speed?boat belonging to Ukrainian armed forces were also hit?while on their way?to the ports of the Odesa area.
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Sales of UAE's Fujairah bunkers in the first half of 2026 plummet amid US/Iran war
The U.S. - Iran 'war' has affected supplies at the?key Middle Eastern ship fuelling hub near the Strait of Hormuz. Fujairah has lost its lead as the top bunkering hub in the world. China's Zhoushan Port is now poised to overtake Fujairah this year, as the third largest hub in the world. According to S&P Global's data on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, marine fuel sales in Fujairah for the first half 2026 were about 1.63 metric?tons (10.40 million barrels), down 55% compared to the?first halves of 2025. Volumes continued to decline, reaching a new low of 86,000 tons in June. Sales of low-sulphur fuels for marine vessels, which include both residual fuels and gasoline, accounted for 51% of the total volume in June, while sales high-sulphur fuels for marine vessels accounted 49%. The first drop in sales occurred in March, after the war began at the end February. Infrastructure was also attacked, causing loading operations to be hampered. Fujairah imports fuel oil from Middle Eastern countries such as Iran and Russia. The majority of Middle?Eastern exports usually leave via the Strait. Fuel oil from Russia has also been declining month-on-month since 2026, as Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russian refineries. The reduced supplies tightened the market in 'Fujairah. The market was replenished in early July following a'short-lived U.S.Iran ceasefire. However, sources on the market said that despite the return of hostilities, supply streams were uncertain. Fujairah Oil Industry Zone statistics showed that the remaining?fuel oil inventory at Fujairah rose to above 7.3 millions barrels (1.2million?tons) during the week ending July 6. This was the highest level since early March. Stockpiles have decreased again slightly this week. (Reporting and editing by Harikrishnan Nair; Jeslyn Leerh)
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Search called off after one confirmed dead and three suspected dead in capsized boat found in San Francisco Bay
The U.S. Coast Guard called off their'search for missing people from a triple-deck pontoon that capsized in San Francisco Bay?a day earlier. According to officials from the Coast Guard and San Francisco Fire Department, a pleasure boat with 20 people on board rolled and sank Tuesday near Alcatraz Island after being hit by a large sea. Good Samaritans on other boats nearby, including a couple fishermen, rushed onto the scene to rescue many of the people clinging to a sinking boat's side before emergency response teams arrived. Officials said that one victim was confirmed to be dead on the scene, and divers, other rescue personnel, and the Coast Guard and Fire Department launched a search of three missing passengers. The Coast Guard announced that it would stop the search for survivors in the frigid water at sunset on Wednesday. Authorities have not formally identified the victims. However, local CBS-owned television station KPIX-TV reported that the brother of the boat captain was pronounced dead. The three other people were the sister, sister-in-law, and friend of the captain. On Wednesday, a Coast Guard official informed reporters that some passengers were below deck when the vessel was struck by a wave and overturned. This likely trapped some people in the sinking vessel.
India Customs is the second agency to take on Adani in a battle over nicotine pouches
India's Customs Authorities have joined the Health Ministry in a fight against Adani Group for the sale of nicotine sachets at airports. They claim that duty-free shops are only tax-advantageous and not immune to other regulations.
The sale of nicotine pouches in duty-free shops at the Mumbai airport owned by billionaire Gautam Adani was found to be illegal during a March inspection. His company is now appealing this decision at the Mumbai High Court.
The customs department stated that the concept of "goods being outside customs borders" for taxation reasons "doesn't grant immunity from regulatory control," in a document submitted to Mumbai judges June 22.
Adani has claimed shops in the international departure zone are outside of the'reach of domestic regulation.' In a filing dated July 13, seen by, Adani argued that its legal challenge is valid because customs asked them to stop sales without issuance any warning notice.
The group also claimed that the goods sold to departing passengers by duty-free shops are in accordance with legal standards, which state they must be?placed in sealed bags' and are not to be used before they leave India.
Customs officials said this interpretation was "untenable", as passengers who take possession of duty-free items can consume them freely. Adani and Indian authorities did not answer any questions.
India has not approved the use of nicotine pouches, which are one of the fastest-growing products in the world.
Philip Morris reports that Zyn sales in the U.S. doubled last year as compared to 2023.
Adani operates eight airports across India. The company is aiming for an expansion of $11 billion, which includes a wager on duty-free shopping.
Adani's company has imported Zyn, White Fox and Swedish Smokeless Solutions brands worth more than $35,000 since August, according to reports.
The next hearing will be on July 28. (Reporting and editing by Edwina G. Gibbs; Aditya K. Kalra)
(source: Reuters)