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China's oil exports plummeted during the Iran War. How much will the recover?
China imported 11.5 million barrels per day on average in the past five years. Since April, the average has been just 8 million barrels per day. China's rapid slashing of imports - shipments dropped to 40% below pre-Iran War levels in June - has helped keep a lid on global prices, and has freed up cargoes that could be used by other countries. Market observers want to know if the decline in demand will last. Michal Meidan is the head of China Energy Research for the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. "There is a huge level of uncertainty, because we do not fully understand what happened." This uncertainty is due to the fact that China is not transparent: its oil companies have opaque data and the size of their stockpiles is a secret. Analysts predict that China's oil demand could drop by up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) after the war, a dramatic decline for a nation that has driven global oil consumption for decades. Consider the following factors: WHY CHINESE FUEL DESIRE? The war revealed that the Chinese transport system can run on less fuel, than was thought possible. This has major implications for crude oil imports as roughly half of them are refined into transportation fuels. It's not clear whether the war will significantly accelerate electric car sales. Especially since petrol prices are now back at pre-war levels, after having risen by over a quarter. In June, electric and hybrid vehicles accounted for a record-breaking 62% of all new car sales. A weak Chinese economy and the slow electrification rate of an 87% petrol-powered fleet have led to hundreds of thousands of cars being sold less this year. The war is likely to accelerate the decline of diesel after the government announced a plan to electrify trucks in June, with the aim to have some popular short-haul routes electrified by 2030. Rystad, a consultancy, expects Chinese consumption of gasoline and diesel to fall 6.6% and 6.9% respectively, as opposed to their previous forecasts which were 3.5% and 3 % before the war. Ye Lin, a Rystad analyst, says that the crisis has been a catalyst. It helped consumers gain a greater confidence in electric vehicles and trucks. WHERE IS THE INDUSTRIAL DEMAND GOING? Meidan, from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, warns that if the Iran War slows China’s growth at home or on its export markets further, this will pose a risk to the country’s oil demand. China's construction industry has been hit by the property crisis, which has impacted diesel demand over several years. Property prices continue to fall. A structurally weaker economic system could also affect demand for plastics and petrochemicals. This would hurt refiners as well as reduce oil consumption. Meidan stated that we don't think enough about the bigger economic picture. "That's a big question, and it will have an impact on Chinese oil demand as well as industrial activity." What role does stockpiling play? Crude imports increased due to Beijing's campaign of reserve building last year. This was done in order for China to be able absorb the shock of a closed Strait of Hormuz. Analysts say that the stockpiling of China's reserves has ceased since the end of the war. However, it is difficult to determine when and how much China will resume building its reserves due to the uncertainty surrounding Beijing's goals and the size. Beijing does not disclose its reserve targets or how much it stores. Last year, it was reported that China had been building new storage tanks. Premier Li Qiang demanded even more capacity during a visit in?May to a reserve. According to June Goh senior analyst of Sparta Commodities, "despite the demand destruction, China will still import crude oil in incremental quantities to fill its strategic reserves." Goh believes that a stockpiling drive could bring them back up to the 9.5 to 11 million bpd range. Brent crude traded between $58-$83 per barrel during China's massive stockpiling last year, as opposed to the current price of around $85. Analysts believe it may resume if prices drop below $70. Will the Fuel Export Valve revive oil demand? Analysts say that, whatever the new "normal", it will require certainty regarding the Gulf's supply and the lifting of Beijing's restrictions on fuel exports during wartime. Chinese refiners are less likely to increase production if they don't have exports to absorb excess gasoline, jet fuel and diesel. Beijing may impose these restrictions again in August, now that the Gulf war has resumed. Exports can also determine the final destination of China's crude oil imports in the long term. Refineries could need to import more oil if overseas sales absorb excess fuels and petrochemicals. China closely manages fuel shipments through a fuel export system. (Reporting and editing by Lewis Jackson in Beijing, Sam Li)
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Wall Street Journal, July 17,
These are the most popular stories from the Wall Street Journal. The?has not checked these stories or?cannot?guarantee their accuracy. Databricks, a provider of data analytics, has raised a round of strategic funding valued at $188 billion. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced that Taco Bell owned by Yum Brands would stop using shredded iceberg sourced from a supplier that has been linked with a parasitic outbreak causing a severe form of diarrhea and vomiting. Honda Motors will stop?the production?of its Prologue SUV, which is sold?in America?this?year. Honda Motors will not cancel sales immediately, but expects to continue them until early 2027. This is because it has a large inventory. ArcBest Corporation, a logistics firm, will reduce its workforce by 2 percent as part of a plan to simplify the brand structure. MoLo Solutions and Panther Premium Logistics will operate under the ArcBest name starting August 1. Uber Technologies will?buy German Food-Delivery Company Delivery Hero for $14.8 billion. This deal will boost its international presence. Verizon Communications, a U.S. wireless carrier, is restructuring its business by selling franchises and reducing its workforce. (Compiled by Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Vietnam's Cai Mep terminal begins gas delivery to Phu My Power Complex?
The company said in a?statement?on?Friday that the Cai Mep terminal in Vietnam, owned by Atlantic Gulf & Pacific LNG (AG&P LNG), had begun supplying?regasified liquefied?natural gas to the largest gas-fired?generation?complex of the country. The Singapore-based AG&P LNG unit, a U.S. investment firm Nebula Energy said that regassified LNG was now flowing through a pipeline it owns to the 900 megawatt Phu My 2.1E and 2.1E power plant, which is?operated? by a Vietnamese state utility, Vietnam Electricity Corporation. AG&P LNG said that the milestone established Cai 'Mep LNG Vietnam as the first private terminal to supply regasified LNG to 'Phu My Power Complex. Gas sales agreement between EVN and a subsidiary of Cai Mep, Power Generation Corporation 3 (PGC3), is responsible for the deliveries. The first gas sent-out marks completion of the commissioning of a new Cai Mep-Phu My pipeline and gas distribution stations, connecting the terminal with... the 4 gigawatt Phu My Hub. Cai Mep is one of Vietnam’s two LNG terminals. It is located in Ba Ria-Vung Tau Province, which is situated to the south. The terminal has a 3 million metric ton capacity per year. The terminal began operations in the third-quarter of last year and is connected to the Phu My Industrial Zone by pipeline. AG&P LNG raised its stake in the terminal from 50% to 100% in April. The Thi Vai terminal, operated by PetroVietnam Gas in Ba Ria Vung Tau Province, is Vietnam's second operational LNG import facility. The terminal?supplies fuel for the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 Power Plants, the first power plants in the country to run on LNG exclusively. Commercial operations began in December.
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BHP's Australian iron ore hub elects workers to stop work
The Electrical Trades Union reported on Friday that the majority of BHP high-voltage power network workers in Western Australia's Pilbara Region have supported strike action. This is a 'escalation' of labour unrest less than a week after hundreds of BHP iron ore miner employees walked out. The union reported that 97.5% voted for work stops ranging from 30 to 24 hours. ETU stated that "High voltage workers seek transparent classifications, clear criteria for promotion, equal pay for employees doing the same job, and enforceable wages and conditions guaranteed through a collective contract." The union stated that the vote came after?months? of limited industrial actions, including bans on overtime, and more than a year?of unsuccessful negotiations?with BHP. According to its website, the ETU represents more than 70,000 'electricians, electrical apprentices, and electrical workers' throughout Australia. BHP said in an email that it will continue to focus on achieving fair and reasonable agreements. Further bargaining meetings are scheduled for Port Operations workers on Tuesday, with the Fair Work Commission acting as an independent facilitator and high voltage employees next Thursday. The miner stated that the Fair Work Commission was the most constructive way to achieve the best result. After the parties failed in their attempts to agree on the terms of a four-year contract, hundreds of BHP Port Hedland iron ore workers went on strike for eight hours on Thursday. Port Hedland, a major artery through which BHP routes $80 million in iron ore per day, is the site of the biggest strike at BHP in?at least three decades. Unions are looking to gain a foothold in Australia's Iron Ore Regions. Reporting by Sneha Lahiri and Shivangi lahiri from Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Nikita Marie Jino, Editing by Tasim Zaid and Niveditarjee
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Swiss stocks: Factors to be on the lookout for July 17
Here are some of the main factors that could affect Swiss stocks on Friday: H1 net income CHF 105.2 millions. GEORG FISCHER The expected proceeds of CHF 220 MILLION from the divestment and sale of the?industrial gas-turbine business will be used to reduce debt. Company Statements Novartis ?Fabhalta Receives FDA Approval. ANALYSTS VIEWS FLUGHAFEN ZUERICH AG-Jefferies raises the target price from CHF 246 to?CHF252? ECONOMY No major Swiss economic data scheduled. (Reporting by Zurich newsroom and Gdansk newsroom) |1|For Top News in ?a multimedia Web format on Eikon visit: https://bit.ly/2NDFd6g FOR ?RELATED PRICES, NEWS AND ?OTHER ?TOPICS, DOUBLE-CLICK ON: Daily Swiss stock market report in ?German All SMI constituent ?stocks DJ STOXX index Top 10 STOXX sectors Top ?10 EUROSTOXX sectors Swiss ?mid-cap index Swiss all-share ?index Swiss market digest Sector overview All Swiss news Swiss research news All equity news SPEED GUIDES: |1|
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Sources say that RPT, a Saudi Arabian-backed developer, is looking for investors to invest in World Cup stadiums.
Three sources have confirmed that Saudi Arabia's ROSHN group is looking for investors to help finance its Aramco stadium, which will host the FIFA World Cup in 2034. The state-backed developer wants to free up capital so it can deliver projects as part of the kingdom's economic transformation strategy. Saudi Arabia is relying more on outside capital as it tries to reduce its dependence on oil and gas revenues. Two sources who declined to be identified because the matter was not public said that JPMorgan had hired ROSHN to manage the equity raising process. According to a third source, PIF and ROSHN are testing the private investor's?appetite? for a stadium. Aramco, JPMorgan and ROSHN declined to comment. PIF and ROSHN did not respond to requests for comments. STADIUM TRANSACTION WOULD MIRROR STRUCTURE OF PIPELINE DEALS The stadium is expected to be finished by the end this year, and will host its first match in January. Saudi Aramco is the state-owned oil company that operates the stadium on a 25-year concession. ROSHN, as the owner and developer, owns the project. Sources said that ROSHN's transaction will likely follow a structure of lease-and-leaseback. Investors have been attracted to similar infrastructure fundraising deals, such as those used by Aramco in order to raise money for its oil and gas pipelines. According to the model, ROSHN will?establish an entity that controls the leasehold it would co-own?with the investors who would provide the funds upfront. ROSHN would be able to use its capital elsewhere, as the transaction would bring in new funding from investors. Investors would in turn receive a stream of long-term income in the form of Aramco's lease payments. SAUDI ARABIA STRUGGLING WITH FLAGSHIP WORKS PIF, as part of its Vision 2030 economic revamp plan, has heavily invested in sports including Formula E, boxing and tennis. The 2034 World Cup will be a major event in the Kingdom's economic transformation plan. Riyadh has begun building or renovating 15 stadiums in five cities, including the Aramco Stadium, which seats 47,000 people, located in Al Khobar. It is also working on 132 training facilities. Saudi Arabia's Prince Abdulaziz Bin Turki AlFaisal, Saudi Arabia's Minister of Sports, said that the 2034 competition will be the first to host the expanded 48-team tournament in a single country. But overspending and lower-than-anticipated global oil prices that have throttled state revenues have left Saudi Arabia struggling to deliver some of its flagship projects. Trojena was initially set to host 2029 Asian Winter Games, but delays have been experienced. Riyadh hopes private investors can help cover the shortfall. A deal for the Aramco Stadium wouldn't be the first deal involving Saudi owned sports assets. Kingdom Holding Company and the PIF signed an agreement to purchase a 70% stake of Saudi Pro League soccer club Al Hilal in April. Last year, an American investor bought the smaller club Al Kholood as part of a larger privatisation campaign. In May, it was reported that the PIF had been in discussions with investors about a possible minority stake in Newcastle United. This would be part of the fundraising plans to build the stadium.
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets or stocks in France and Benelux. PARIS AIRPORTS/AIRFRANCE KLM: France’s civil aviation authority has asked airlines to reduce flights by 20% at Paris-Orly airport on Thursday evening, due to storm risk. Delays are also expected at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport. AEROPORTS de PARIS SA : The Paris airport operator reported that June group traffic dropped 1.4%, to 33.4 millions passengers. It also revised its 2026 passenger traffic growth projection for Paris from a range of 1.5-2.5% to 0.5%. AEDIFICA: Aedifica, a Belgian investor in healthcare real estate, announced an investment of around EUR21 million into two care homes located in Spain and Finland. AXA: Ardian, a private equity firm, announced that AXA would be?selling its 10% stake in Ardian while Wafra and Assurances du Credit Mutuel (ACM), respectively?increased their respective shares in Ardian. The Financial Times reported Thursday that Dassault Systems, a French software company, is in negotiations to purchase drug-trial software developer ArisGlobal for around $2 billion from Nordic Capital. This was based on the reports of people familiar with this matter. VINCI SA : French infrastructure group Vinci reported that its airports division experienced a 1.3% decline in passenger traffic to 85.1 millions in the second quarter 2026. WORLDLINE SA - French payments company Worldline has announced that it was selected by the European Central Bank to take part in the Eurosystem pilot project for the digital euro. Pan-European market data: European Equities speed ?guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top 10 STOXX ?sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European ?pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones ............... Wall Street report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo ?report............ London report ........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... Survey of global bourse outlook ......... European Asset Allocation........................ News in a glance Top News ............. Equities.............. Main Oil Report ........... Main currency report..... (Gdansk Newsroom)
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State media: Iran's IRGC claims to have targeted the US command centre in Syria
State media reported that Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed on Friday they had?attacked a U.S. special operations command centre in al-Tanf, Syria?in retaliation?for the killing of Iranian soldiers in Iranshahr. The Syrian government and the U.S. Military did not immediately comment on the claim. The U.S. military announced in February that it had completed its withdrawal from 'al-Tanf,' a base located at the confluence between Syria, Jordan and Iraq. Syria has avoided being drawn into regional conflicts that have engulfed neighboring countries such as Lebanon, where Hezbollah fought against israeli forces, or Iraq, where Iran-backed groups launched drone and missile attacks. In March, the Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa stated that his country will not get involved in any conflict until it is attacked. "Syria will not be involved in any conflict unless it is targeted by anyone," said?Sharaa at a London event organized by the?Chatham House?think tank. According to the state media, the Guards said that Iran had full control of the Strait of Hormuz. They also stated that no oil or natural gas would be shipped through the waterway as long as U.S. attacks continued. Reporting by Jana Choukeir and Maya Gebeily, both in Dubai; editing by Jacqueline Wong & Jamie Freed
Environmental lawyers are ready to take on Trump's deregulation of energy
Environmental groups in the United States say they're hiring lawyers and getting ready for a legal battle with the Trump administration, which is attempting to bypass federal regulations regarding oil, gas, and coal development.
The preparations are a test of the Trump administration’s strategy, which has been relying on executive orders and emergency powers to cut down what they see as obstacles to an increase in fossil fuel energy.
Trump has issued an executive directive directing agencies that they must sunset all existing energy regulations by the end of next year. In a separate memo, he said agencies could repeal certain regulations, without consulting the public.
Federal officials also informed companies via email that they could seek exemptions from clean air regulations. They exempted several companies from mercury and toxic air limits. A controversial oil pipeline tunnel was fast-tracked in the Great Lakes.
Attorneys and policy experts have said that these actions are a test of existing law. This includes provisions of the Administrative Procedure Act of 1947, which requires agencies to publish notices of final and proposed regulations, and to allow public comment.
In an interview, Dan Goldbeck said, "They are really kicking it up a notch now." Goldbeck is the director of regulatory policies at the conservative think-tank American Action Forum. "They're trying to push a few of these legal doctrines to see if it can be implemented into a new policy frame."
Earthjustice, an environmental group, said that it was hiring lawyers to prepare for a legal challenge against some of Trump's actions. It said that the organization currently has 10 positions open for lawyers and plans to add to its stable of 200 lawyers this year.
Earthjustice, along with other groups, say that they are ready to file a lawsuit as soon as Trump's agencies implement his directives. This includes his order to sunset federal energy regulations.
Sambhav Sankar is Earthjustice's senior vice president of programs. He said that the proposal by President Trump was almost comically illegal. "If any federal agency tries to do this, we will see them in court."
Nevertheless, the groups say that it is important to wait until the administration acts on Trump's orders.
David Bookbinder is the director of law, policy and environmental integrity at the Environmental Integrity Project.
The White House has not responded to a question about possible legal challenges by environmental groups.
Bookbinder, of EIP, said that the Interior and Commerce Departments gave environmental lawyers a target last week when they proposed a new rule allowing agencies to approve projects that destroy the habitats for endangered species.
He said, "This is in a sense what we've been looking forward to - not the big announcements from the White House."
Zach Pilchen, senior attorney at Holland & Knight and former member of the Trump and Biden Administrations, says that it may be more difficult to challenge the exemptions from mercury and toxic air pollutants for coal-fired plants.
Trump relied upon a provision in the Clean Air Act, passed by Congress back in 1990. This allows the president to exempt some sources from the law for reasons of national security or if mitigation technology isn't available.
Pilchen said, "This is new territory." "That provision has not been tested, and it may be difficult to challenge in court."
He stated that the Clean Air Act contains a judicial-review provision governing lawsuits involving actions taken by the Environmental Protection Agency Administrator, but does not mention specific actions taken by the President.
Earthjustice's Sankar stated that his organization anticipates having to challenge the actions of the administration repeatedly in the coming years. He cited the government's refusal to comply with a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that ordered it to facilitate the return of a Salvadoran deported by mistake and currently held in a notorious El Salvador prison.
Sankar said that, "normally, in impact litigation, after you win, the government will change its behavior in similar cases in order to conform to the precedent." He added that he didn't expect the administration to continue to follow precedent. (Reporting from Nichola Groom, Los Angeles; Valerie Volcovici, Washington; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
(source: Reuters)