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Andy Home: The ROI-Sulfur squeeze puts more pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry

The soaring sulfur prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to affect?Indonesia’s huge nickel sector.

The Gulf is a major input to the world's biggest producer of battery metal.

The sulfur squeeze is a new addition to the Indonesian government’s mix of measures to control its nickel production sector.

The explosive growth of the country's production flooded the world market, and prices fell?throughout?2024-2025.

This month, the prospect of lower Indonesian production and a corresponding change in market balance lifted London Metal Exchange nickel to its highest levels since two years.

WAR AND POLITICS

The Iran War has significantly reduced the flow of sulfur out of the Gulf. This accounts for about a quarter or the global supply.

75 % of Indonesia's sulfur imports come from the region. Sulfuric acid is produced from sulfur to be used by nickel processing plants that use high-pressure acid leach. The plants produce a mixed hydroxide precipitation, an intermediate product that is used in the battery industry.

The HPAL plants in Indonesia are growing rapidly. The 450,000 metric tons of production last year represented more than 10% of the global production. Macquarie Bank estimates that another 100,000 tons of capacity will be added this year.

It was about to ignite.

HPAL operators have already been forced to reduce production due to the sulfur crunch. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt halted the operation of half its capacity.

Even existing operators are struggling to maintain their run-rates.

The'sulfurous fallout' of the war has compounded impact on tighter mine production quotas, and changes in the government's Minimum Selling Price for Nickel Ore.

Macquarie Bank says that the quotas for this year of 260 to 270 millions tons are far below the smelter's requirements, but on paper, they're enough to wipe out any expected surplus.

HPAL producers will see their costs increase by over $3,000 per ton due to the new ore pricing formula. The bank estimates that break-even prices have risen to $18,000 per tonne when combined with rising sulfur prices.

TIPPING POINT

Analysts are beginning to adjust their expectations about how much Indonesia will produce in this year, and what it means for pricing.

Last month, the International Nickel Study Group predicted that after three years of a massive surplus in supply, there will be a global deficit by 2026.

The 32,000-ton forecast shortfall is small compared to the 283,000-ton excess calculated last year. It is a significant revision to the Group's forecast in October of a large 261,000-ton excess.

The Group lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 from 6.2% to just 4.2%. Global production is forecast to fall by 4.3%, as Indonesian growth slows or reverses.

The forecasts released on April 22 do not explicitly mention the impact of a possible sulfur squeeze. Few expected the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed so long.

RECOVERY

Nickel prices are responding to a combination of increasing costs and possible reduced production in the country that accounts for 60% global supply.

LME nickel for three months broke through its previous range of below $16,000 per tonne in December, as the market began to focus on Indonesia's planned reduction in production quotas.

Last week it reached a two-year high at $20,000 per tonne and this week is hovering around $19,000, an increase of 14.5% from the beginning of 2026.

Over the same period, investment funds have built up long positions. The collective bets on higher prices amount to 35,750 contracts or?215,000 tonnes.

This is still above the 2022 peak, but below the January peak.

It is basically a wager that Indonesia will stop flooding the market.

If it was?just an issue of government policy that could be a risky move.

The mining quotas will be reviewed at the mid-year and may even be increased significantly. Both the quotas as well as the new formula for ore pricing have been met with considerable opposition. Chinese operators who dominate the sector have complained formally to Jakarta and warned that future investment is at risk.

It is possible to tweak the policy further.

Jakarta has no control, however, over the global sulfur availability. This is the biggest threat to the dominant nickel producer in the world. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)