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INDIA RUPEE - Tariff worries and Trump's BRICS swipe cause rupee to fall the most in three weeks

The Indian rupee fell on Monday, as uncertainty over U.S. trade policies resurfaced. President Donald Trump's threats of a new 10% levy against BRICS nations compounded pressure on the local currencies alongside peers such as South African rands and Chinese yuan.

Concerns over U.S. Trade Policies dented risk sentiment, pushing Asian currencies into the red and Asian equities to the downside. U.S. Equity Futures indicated a weaker return after the long weekend.

The rupee fell to an all-time low of 86.0275 against the dollar in the course of the session, but it recovered to close the day at 85.85, down by 0.5%. This was its worst performance since the middle of June, when the currency traded under the shadow of the military conflict between Israel, Iran and Syria.

In a post on social media, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. will begin delivering tariffs letters at 12:00 noon ET (1600 GMT), Monday.

In another post, he announced a completely new tariff policy. He called for all countries that "align themselves with the Anti-American Policies" of the developing BRICS nations to pay an additional 10% tariff.

It wasn't immediately clear if Trump’s tariff threat was going to derail trade negotiations with India and the other BRICS countries. After Trump's threats, the South African rand dropped 1% while offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.2%.

Dilip Parmar is a foreign currency research analyst at HDFC Securities. He said that the absence of progress in trade negotiations over the past weekend was a surprise to the markets. Trump's BRICS remark hurt the rupee the most.

Parmar believes the Reserve Bank of India will step in and support the rupee, if volatility continues to rise due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. Trade Policies.

On that day, traders pointed out the strong dollar demand by a large private bank in the area which pushed the local currency.

A trader from a state-run banking institution said that a fall below 85.80 triggered stop-losses, which accentuated the movement of the day. In the absence of any positive trade developments, he expects the currency will weaken in the short-term to 86.50.

(source: Reuters)