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US natgas at Waha Hub, Texas, remains negative for the 25th consecutive day

U.S. spot gas prices for the Waha Hub on Thursday Permian production in West Texas has been in decline for the 25th consecutive day as a result of pipeline restrictions. This is causing some analysts to predict a reduction in gas production in the near future. Energy firms are likely to boost Permian production in the long-term as more gas pipelines enter service, as rising oil prices due to the Iran War encourage oil and gas production.

Analysts have said for years that negative prices, where some energy companies are forced to pay other firms to take the?gas produced by their oil production, is a sign that there needs to be more gas pipelines in the Permian Region, which spans West Texas to eastern New Mexico.

This year more pipes are on their way, but they won't be able to handle the current amount of gas coming from the ground.

"Continued downward pricing in the Permian can be expected for most of spring." Analysts at EBW Analytics Group wrote in a report that as regional production is likely to ebb lower, this may also affect national-level output in the coming weeks. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data dating back to 2009 the Permian 'gas production has reached record highs each year since 2013. In 2025, it is expected to reach a staggering?27.7 bcfd (bcfd), which would be enough to meet over a quarter (25%) of U.S. energy demand. One billion cubic feet is enough gas to power five million U.S. households for one day.

The Permian Basin has seen its gas production increase by an average of 12% per year over the last five years (from 2021-2025). This makes it the second largest shale gas producing basin in America, behind the Marcellus/Utica Shale located in Appalachia which includes Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia.

According to the latest EIA estimates, gas production growth in Permian will slow to 4% per year on average?in 2026-2027.

"Longer-term, higher oil prices encourage more oil production. Future associated gas also suggests that there will be a large supply tailwind when new Permian pipes come online at the end of 2026," said EBW.

NEGATIVE PRICES

The Permian has been willing to accept some gas losses because it can compensate for those who make money from oil sales. Gas prices that were negative were rare a decade before, when environmental regulations were more relaxed and drillers were able to burn some of the unwanted gas.

In recent years, this gas has gained in value as a fuel for generating electricity that is used to power the data centers of the United States. It can also be exported via pipeline to Mexico or as LNG to other markets.

The average price at the Waha Hub for the U.S. Cash Market fell to minus 6.34 dollars per million British thermal units (mmBtu), down from minus 5.40 dollars for Wednesday and a record-breaking minus 7.15 dollars for Tuesday.

Daily Waha prices were first?averaged under zero in 2019. The prices were below zero 17 times this year, six times next year, once in 2020, 49 times 2024, 39 time in 2025 and 34 times already in 2019.

The average Waha price has been negative 37 cents/mmBtu in 2026 compared to $1.15 per mmBtu in 2025, and $2.88 in the five years prior (2021-2025). (Reporting from Scott DiSavino).

(source: Reuters)