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Bank of Japan expected to cut bond buying by $100 bln in very first year, study programs

Japan bond market participants expect the reserve bank to cut bond purchases by approximately $100. billion in the first year under a quantitative tightening (QT). plan set for release this month, according to a study carried out. .

A survey of 19 banks, brokerages, insurers and possession. supervisors showed they expect the Bank of Japan to cut bond. buying by an average 16.1 trillion yen ($ 99.7 billion) in the. first year.

That would translate into regular monthly purchases of 4.65 trillion. yen, down from the existing rate of around 6 trillion yen. In the. second year, the respondents expect the purchase amount to fall. to an average 3.55 trillion yen, the survey revealed.

Combined, it would amount to a decrease of roughly 45. trillion yen during the two-year period.

Respondents of the survey were divided on how long. the BOJ will keep tapering with 9 projecting it to last for. two years, while 2 thought it will end in an year. A number of. others believed the BOJ will keep tapering beyond 2 years.

A slight majority expected the BOJ to adjust the rate of. tapering once a month or as soon as every quarter, while others wager. the change will happen less frequently or on an advertisement hoc basis.

The study was conducted June 25-July 1.

At a policy meeting last month, the BOJ decided to announce. in July a detailed plan on how it prepares to decrease its substantial bond. purchasing and downsize its nearly $5 trillion balance sheet.

The BOJ stated it will come up with a taper strategy that kicks. off in August, and covers a duration of around one to 2 years.

Guv Kazuo Ueda has said the quantity of taper will be. considerable, without using information. The BOJ will hold a. meeting with bond market participants on July 9-10 to collect. their views, before picking the strategy at its July 30-31. policy conference.

After purchasing bonds strongly for a years to reflate. development, the BOJ has actually seen its holding of Japanese government. bonds (JGB) balloon to 576 trillion yen - approximately half of total. JGBs offered in the market.

Lowering the holdings belongs to the BOJ's continuous efforts. to phase out its massive monetary stimulus, which also resulted in an. end in March to 8 years of negative rates of interest.

(source: Reuters)