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Maguire: Booming LNG exports in the US could be dragged into the cost of living debate

The U.S. LNG export boom has pushed the discussion of rising energy costs in the U.S. into the context of LNG exports.

The latest data from U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters consumed a record amount of?5,000 billion cubic feet (141.6 million cubic meters) of gas between January and November 2025.

This total is a significant increase over the roughly 4,000 BCF gas that was consumed by residential sites and the approximately 3,000 BCF by commercial sites in this period. LNG exporters now rank as 'the third largest 'U.S. Gas consumption is second only to industry and power companies.

Last year, the U.S. benchmark natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) rose by 61%.

Natural gas power plants provide around 40% of the U.S.'s electricity - more than any other power source. This increase in gas prices has led to a rise in electricity bills, which reached all-time-highs in 2013.

Voters in the United States are likely to push back against any further increases in electricity bills, as they already face record-high costs for housing, insurance, food, and medical care. This is especially true in the lead up to midterm elections this year.

This could lead to LNG exporters being criticized for competing with power companies and households in the market for gas, even though additional LNG export capacities are due to be installed and will increase potential U.S. LNG volumes.

STEEP GAINS

The amount of?gas purchased by U.S. exporters of LNG during the first eleven months of 2025 was 209% higher than the same period in 2019.

During the same period, gas consumption in residences, commercial locations (restaurants and hospitals), industries and power companies increased on average by?3%.

This means that LNG exporters are the fastest-growing source of U.S. Gas demand in the last decade. They have caused dramatic changes in the domestic gas market dynamics. These include tighter supplies for other gas consumers and higher volatility in natural gas prices.

Gas prices are expected to rise by roughly 50% in 2025, compared with 2019. Residential and commercial properties will see a similar increase while power and industry firms will face a 30% hike.

As a result of the steep rise in gas prices, many major users have tried to replace it with other power sources. This has meant, for households and businesses, electrifying heating and power systems.

In 2025, as gas prices rose, utilities increased output of cheaper coal-fired plants.

LNG EXPORTER'S IMPACT

LNG exporters are able to absorb the higher costs of domestic gas more easily than their rivals, since the price of LNG on foreign markets is multiples the local gas cost.

EIA data show that the average U.S. export price for LNG in 2025 will be around $7.87 per 1,000 cubic feet (MCF). This compares to an average Henry Hub price of $3.66.

This means that LNG exporters can easily add a $2?fee per MCF for liquefaction and another $1 per MCF for shipping fees, while still making a profit on the LNG sold overseas.

Many LNG exporters have seen their margins increase as a result of several LNG cargoes being sold on the spot markets at higher prices. This has prompted them to expand as rapidly as possible.

According to the EIA’s most recent short-term energy outlook, the total North American LNG export capability could more than double from 11.4 BCF to 24.3 by the end 2027.

PRICE RESPONSE

This steep increase in export capacity could trigger a new surge in LNG exports and tighten the gas supply for domestic consumers.

This could lead to even higher gas prices for other buyers of gas, such as households using gas for heating or power companies generating electricity.

EIA data indicates that residential consumers will face the highest gas prices in 2025. Prices are expected to average $19 per MCF.

Commercial and industrial users pay more for gas than power companies. The average commercial price was around $11.44/MCF in the past year, while the industrial price was around $5.05/MCF.

Last year, even power companies - who have access to wholesale gas pools that other consumers don't - saw their average gas prices rise sharply to $3.95/MCF.

This shows that the booming?LNG demand is putting pressure on all major gas users, who could then push back against factors that would?threaten the price of this critical resource to rise further.

This suggests that LNG exporters may be under increased scrutiny by 2026. They could face pressure to curtail their expansion plans, even if this slows down the pace of LNG sales.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)