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Maguire: Five energy transition mistakes that are utterly infuriating

Most of the key technologies are now working. Solar panels do work. The wind turbines also work. Batteries work. Electric buses also work. Hydrogen electrolysers work in general.

The bad news?is that governments, utilities, and companies all over the world are constantly coming up with new creative ways to prevent these technologies from delivering on their promises.

The biggest obstacles to the transition are no longer scientific. They are increasingly administrative, logistical, and political.

Humanity has spent many years perfecting shiny green hardware, but neglected the boring supporting infrastructure.

This leads to a growing number of expensive?own goals.

Here are five of most irritating.

FUMBLE 2: THE BUS BEFORE?THE PLUG

Ireland has produced the image that defines the modern energy transition. Rows of brand new electric buses are?sitting? in storage yards because there is not enough charging infrastructure ready to put them into use.

The charging infrastructure in depots is still behind the times. This forces authorities to run diesel buses and leave the electric fleet idle.

Thousands of green buses that are still unused have been stored and maintained for millions of dollars in addition to the estimated EUR500,000 per bus.

Why it infuriates

The busse themselves were supposed to be the difficult part.

The installation of chargers should be relatively straightforward.

Planners instead managed to get the vehicles without ensuring that there was a charging system.

Infrastructure first and procurement second.

Energy transition is increasingly dependent on the right sequencing, not necessarily on new technologies.

FUMBLE 3: THE STRANDED STATIONS If Ireland’s buses are a failure of local planning, India shows the problem on a truly industrial scale.

India is now one of the fastest growing renewable energy markets in the world. Transmission construction has not kept pace with the growth.

Industry groups have warned of the stranding of more than 50 gigawatts in renewable energy projects due to a combination between transmission delays, regulatory bottlenecks, and missed power supply agreements. Unfinished transmission infrastructure has been reported in major renewable hubs like Rajasthan and Gujarat.

These numbers are astounding. The numbers are staggering.

Why it infuriates

Solar panels are now affordable to most people.

The constraint is now transmission lines, permits, and paperwork.

The solar farms were delivered on time. The wires didn't.

All renewable energy stories eventually become transmission stories.

New power lines are built at the pace of local permits.

Few countries have embraced electrification with as much enthusiasm as the Netherlands.

With remarkable speed, the Dutch promoted electric cars, heat pumps and cleaner industrial process. Unfortunately, the demand for electricity grew faster than the grid. There is severe congestion on the network. Businesses and housing developments are increasingly waiting for electricity connections.

The grid is unable to accommodate all projects.

Why it infuriates

It wasn't due to climate skeptics, fossil-fuel lobbyists or technological flaws. This was due to success.

The country was so successful in encouraging electrification, that the network could not keep up.

Before solving the extension cord, the Dutch first solved the energy demand side.

The grid is not an optional extra. Electricity grids are fundamental to all other strategies of decarbonisation.

FUMBLE #4: THE HYDROGEN MONIE PIT Over the last five years, no clean-energy concept received more attention than green hydrogen.

This is why the Whyalla project in Australia is such a cautionary story.

South Australia has established an Office of Hydrogen Power, and invested nearly A$600,000,000 ($421,000,000) in a flagship project centered on Whyalla.

The project was marketed as a demonstration of the role hydrogen plays in industrial decarbonisation and power generation.

The venture was ultimately shattered by cost pressures, market challenges and the crisis at the Whyalla Steelworks.

The project was abandoned, the office for hydrogen dissolved and later auditors reported spending of hundreds of millions of dollar, including significant asset write-downs related to initial project work.

Why does it infuriate you?

It was more than a project that had been delayed. This was a good reminder that enthusiasm is not the same as economics. Hydrogen was the most popular conference presentation for energy transition, but PowerPoint slides are not very good at generating commercial return.

Pilot projects are needed.

Riskier are bets that are placed in advance of the market, customer and economics being fully established.

FUMBLE #5: CALIFORNIA’S SOLAR GLUT California provides an unusual example of success through failure.

The state has been pushing hard to increase?solar production for years. It was successful. It was so successful that the grid is struggling to absorb the entire electricity produced at certain times.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), California has curtailed approximately 3 terawatt-hours (TWh) in wind and solar energy generation over the last two years. This is equivalent to the electricity used by roughly 500,000 households in California annually.

Solar was responsible for the majority of these reductions. The oversupply of electricity, congestion and operational constraints are also contributing to the increasing frequency of periods with negative prices.

Why it infuriates

California has worked to solve a problem that was causing it concern: the lack of solar energy.

Now, it is faced with a new problem: Too much solar production at the wrong time.

It is a unique frustration to build clean electricity plants only to turn them off when the grid can't fully utilize what they produce.

Installing renewable energy is only half of the challenge. The importance of storage, transmission, and flexible electricity demands is growing.

The COMMON THREAD

The five examples below span three continents, and include different technologies, governments and markets.

All of them share the same flaw.

The equipment is working. The planning is not working.

The policymakers have repeatedly focused on the visible signs of the transition - buses, solar farms and hydrogen plants - while ignoring the less glamorous technologies that make these assets useful.

Each?electric bus needs a charger.

A transmission line is required for every wind farm.

Each hydrogen project?requires an end-user.

A grid that can support energy transitions is essential.

These mistakes can be largely corrected.

It's worrying that we keep learning the same thing over and over: boring things matter most in energy.

And while nobody ever built a multi-trillion-dollar industrial revolution without making some costly mistakes, it would be nice if the next generation of green fumbles involved fewer own goals.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)