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The little reactors who could? Maguire: How SMRs have become nuclear's best option.

Each energy transition has a favorite underdog.

Small modular reactors (SMRs), which are the latest in a race to produce enough clean and reliable electricity in the United States, are increasingly taking on this role.

There are still significant obstacles to overcome and the technology is still largely unproven.

A combination of increasing power demand, supportive policies, regulatory reform, and growing investor interests has transformed the SMR from a "speculative" concept to what could be nuclear power's greatest growth opportunity.

Power Pinch

The shift to?SMRs is a result of the increasing demand for electricity, mainly from artificial intelligence data centres, industrial reshoring and electrification, as well as new manufacturing investments.

The U.S. Department of Energy cited the growing demand for electricity as a major reason to accelerate nuclear deployment.

This creates new opportunities for technologies that can deliver?round-the-clock energy?without emitting carbon.

The wind and solar power generation continues to grow, but utilities, policymakers and industrial customers are looking for more reliable sources of energy that aren't dependent on the weather.

Why modular matters more than small

The term "small modular reactors" can be misleading.

It is not the size of the reactors that makes them so attractive. Smaller reactors do sacrifice some economies of scale, which have historically been favored by large nuclear plants.

The word "modular" holds the promise.

Nuclear plants are some of the most complex projects to build anywhere in the world. The plants are largely constructed on-site, require thousands to work and often face long delays which drive up the cost.

The industry's financial troubles are largely due to difficult construction. SMRs are designed to change this model.

Instead of building huge facilities from scratch, developers hope that they can manufacture major reactor components, ship them to the site, and assemble them using standard designs.

This approach, if successful, could reduce construction risks, shorten timelines, and ultimately lower costs.

The vision is simple: transform nuclear power from construction into a manufacturing business.

A STRONG BACKING

Political climate has also become more favorable.

The ADVANCE Act is a bipartisan law that will be signed into law by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2024. It directs them to streamline licensing, reduce certain regulatory costs and create more efficient deployment pathways.

The program also supports regulatory approaches that are tailored to advanced nuclear technologies and encourages the development of former fossil fuel sites.

This may seem like a matter of regulatory housekeeping. Investors, however, often place equal importance on predictability and innovation.

Financing a reactor that is subject to years of uncertainty in its reviews can be difficult. A reactor that operates within a more defined regulatory framework is easier to finance.

Fuel is another bottleneck that the federal government is trying to resolve.

Many advanced reactor designs are based on HALEU, which is high-assay-low-enriched uranium. The United States did not have a domestic fuel supply chain until recently.

The Department of Energy has undertaken a number of initiatives to develop the fuel and enrichment infrastructure needed for commercial deployment.

In an effort to promote advances in the entire reactor spectrum, the Department of Energy also supports?the development of sodium-cooled reactors and gas-cooled reactors as well as molten-salt reactors and so-called Microreactors.

Washington no longer supports only reactor developers. It tries to create the ecosystem that they need to be successful.

REGULATORY REACH

The advanced reactor industry has long complained about trying to fit 21st century technologies into 20th century regulatory frameworks.

Many reactors proposed use fuels, coolants, and operating concepts that are different from the conventional light water reactors which dominate the fleet. Licensing these reactors often involved navigating through a maze exemptions and reviews.

The NRC’s new Part-53 framework is intended to create a licensing path that is more risk-informed and technology inclusive. Regulators are trying to accommodate a wide range of reactor designs while maintaining safety standards, rather than forcing all designs through the same licensing process.

These changes, while they may seem technical, address a major problem in the industry.

Scalable regulation is required for a scalable industry.

MOVE INTO THE?BUILDING PHASE

The optimism has also increased because advanced reactors have finally moved beyond concept studies and investors presentations.

TerraPower's Natrium Project in Wyoming has reached major construction and permitting milestones. This is one of the most clear examples of a commercially deployable advanced reactor.

The project, which is near an aging coal power plant in the area, illustrates how advanced nuclear can potentially replace fossil fuel generation by reusing grid infrastructure and existing workforce expertise.

In an industry that often seems stuck in the future, progress is important.

Investors are more likely to trust construction sites rather than PowerPoint promises.

TOUGH TESTS Ahead

This does not guarantee success.

SMRs face formidable challenges. Supply chains need to be created. The manufacturing capacity must be expanded. Utilities should commit to unique projects. Developers must also prove that deployment costs are falling.

In fact, today's industry faces a new challenge. It is not primarily scientific. It's industrial.

Can reactor modules at large scale be produced? Can projects be duplicated rather than reinvented? Costs can be reduced by repetition, just as they have in industries from aerospace to automobile manufacturing?

Can a reactor be a product instead of a project, and what is the most important thing to consider?

History of technological progress teaches a simple lesson.

Innovations are rarely able to transform economies at the time they are created. They transform economies once someone figures out how they can be manufactured repeatedly, inexpensively and in large quantities.

The SMR industry may now be approaching this point.

The future of advanced nuclear no longer depends primarily on the ability to prove that new reactor concepts are viable. It is more important to prove that the reactors can be constructed predictably, affordably financed, and repeatedly deployed.

SMRs are the best choice for nuclear power.

Their promise no longer relies on a major breakthrough in reactor design.

The foundation of the project is a more pragmatic, but potentially more consequential, breakthrough - teaching the nuclear industry to build reactors in the same way that successful industries build their products.

It is not necessary that the little reactors which could succeed in the end, because they have reinvented nuclear physics.

They reinvented the nuclear construction.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)

(source: Reuters)