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Sources say Iran will receive shoulder-launched Chinese missile systems within weeks.
Three sources with knowledge of the deal said that Iran will receive a first shipment within weeks out of 400 shoulder-fired air defence missile launchers made by China, as they rebuild their defenses in the midst of war with the United States. The purchase is valued between $60 and 70 million and represents one of Tehran's most visible efforts to improve its short-range defences following the start of the 'war' with Israel and the U.S., which revealed gaps in Iran’s ability to defend military sites and strategic assets. Sources said that the contract includes the purchase of 300 to 400 man-portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS), which include QW-12 and FN-16 Chinese missiles. Sources say that Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment in Hong Kong acted as an intermediary for the Iranians and the Chinese supplier. IRAN MUST REARM AFTER WAR FOR MONTHS Sources spoke under condition of anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the subject. The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not respond immediately to a request for comment. The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated: "The reports in question are totally unfounded." China has always played an important role in ending conflict and promoting peace. The parent company of Zhongqing Baoshang International Investment, Zhong Qing Bao Shang Group based in Beijing, did not respond immediately to an email on Tuesday. After months of conflict in which the U.S., Israel and other countries have attacked Iran's missile, drone, and air-defence programs, Tehran has responded with a barrage of ballistic missiles, drones, and other weapons. The conflict has brought to light the difficulty of defending strategic and military sites from advanced aircraft and precision guided weapons. Washington suspended its bombardment of Syria for two weeks on Saturday. But President Donald Trump said that if the conflict was not resolved through negotiations, then strikes would resume. The five-month conflict has been in a ceasefire in theory since April. The delivery of hundreds?MANPADS will significantly increase Iran's short-range air defence weapons and highlight the deepening military ties between China and Iran. Sources warned that even though the agreement was signed, details such as delivery schedules and quantities could change. According to sources, the parties have agreed that deliveries will be made by air, first from Urumqi, in western China. Then, the delivery will transit through Pakistan and then to Iran. ISPR, Pakistan's military-affiliated public relations arm, said that the rumours about Pakistan supplying Air Defence arms to Iran via China were "absolutely concocted" and "false." The Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson did not respond when asked for comment. Sources say that China and Iran should explore land routes for delivery. Military experts claim that Iran has made significant investments in missiles, radars and drones over the last two decades. However, they also say that portable air defence systems are more important than fixed batteries because they can easily be moved, operate by small teams, and be relocated. A?European source of security said that authorities in his country knew of several contracts being discussed involving possible sales of QW-series MANPADS systems to Iran. These included?QW-12 QW-18 QW-19. Second security source in the Middle East said Iran was seeking to buy QW-12 and QW-18 rockets but were unaware of a deal already being concluded. QW-12 and FN-16 surface-to-air missiles with infrared guidance are shoulder fired, designed to target low-flying aircraft such as helicopters, drones, etc. They can be quickly deployed around sensitive sites, such as energy infrastructure or military installations. Defence analysts consider the QW-12 to be 'less capable' than the newer QW versions, such as the QW-18 or QW-19. However, they say that the system can still provide a layer of protection at short range against drones and low flying targets. Iranian officials and two Western intelligence sources said that Tehran was also exploring the use of overland route to move Chinese military supply and dual-use components in a more discrete manner and with less disruption risk. The purchase highlights the Islamic Republic's continued reliance on domestic weapons production as well as foreign suppliers, despite sanctions and restrictions imposed on defence imports for years. According to sources familiar with the negotiations, it was reported previously that Iran and China were close to signing a separate deal to purchase anti-ship cruise weapons. Could not determine if the agreement was completed.
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American Airlines resumes nationwide flights after IT issue caused a brief halt
American Airlines and its regional carriers resumed flights on Tuesday evening after a short nationwide suspension of departures due to an IT problem, the airline announced. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued a ground-stop for American Airlines flight due to an IT outage which began around 6:30 pm. ET (2230 GMT), and was cancelled at 7:18 pm. The issue caused hundreds of delays as planes couldn't leave until it was resolved. This happened at a time when many U.S. East Coast airports were experiencing major delays and ground stoppages due to thunderstorms. American Airlines said in a press release that "systems are now back online and flights are once again departing." "We temporarily halted flights while our teams resolved the problem. We apologize to our customers for any inconvenience. FlightAware, an 'airline tracking site', reported that American delayed or cancelled 1,100 flights on Tuesday, which is 30% of all flights. Flightradar24 is another aviation website that reported as of 7:15 p.m. There were '130 less flights? in the air at ET than there were last week. (Reporting and editing by Jacqueline Wong, Jamie Freed, and David Shepardson)
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Travel companies in the US are resilient enough to absorb Middle East shock.
Early earnings reports show how travel companies, from hotel chains and cruise operators, have relied upon resilient business demand from Americans as well as a short-term boost provided by the World Cup to offset the effects of the Middle East war. Fuel costs have increased and international travel has been disrupted by the conflict. However, earnings reports released on Tuesday indicate that many consumers are not deterred by economic uncertainty or higher travel costs. The founder of GetCruiseInfo.com, Brian Rooney, said that "JetBlue Hilton and Royal Caribbean have all shown continued strength with higher-valued products. This suggests that travelers still prioritize experiences, even though they are becoming more selective in their discretionary spending." These results confirm that we are still experiencing a K-shaped economy. Value-conscious travelers adjust their travel plans and schedules, but higher-income travelers book premium experiences. Hilton Worldwide Holdings increased its forecast for room revenue growth in the full year, driven by strong demand at its luxury properties, and the expected benefits of the World Cup during the third quarter. However, the U.S. hotelier's revenue from the Middle East and Africa region fell 29.5% compared to the previous period. Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta stated in an earnings conference that the World Cup helped boost earnings. However, the mid-scale hotels saw the greatest turnaround, as they benefited from the business and group travel demands. Hilton's RevPAR (room revenues) grew by about 1.7% in the second quarter due to the soccer event. Royal Caribbean, the cruise operator, raised its profit forecast for this year but cut its revenue growth projection as it factored a slight hit in bookings due to prolonged geopolitical tensions. The Miami-based company reported an increase of 27% in its quarterly fuel costs to $355 millions from the previous year. However, it slightly reduced its forecast for full-year fuel expenses from $1.35 to $1.34 billion. Naftali Hoetz, Royal Caribbean's chief of finance, said: "Consumer interest in our vacation experiences continues to be strong. Guests continue to show a willingness to spend money on unforgettable experiences." Airline companies have been hit the hardest by the war in Iran. Although most U.S. In the second quarter, carriers recovered close to half the fuel costs that have increased since the beginning of the war. However, the impact on their profits is still mixed. The prices of air travel are expected to remain high. JetBlue Airways reported that higher demand and higher fares allowed it to recover more fuel costs than anticipated, even though its quarterly fuel bill ballooned by nearly 81% or approximately $407 million. JetBlue's President Marty St. George stated during an earnings conference that "nobody likes fare increases but, at the end of the day, we need to cover our costs." As a result of stabilizing fuel prices due to the war, the airline's?visibility? into the second half of the year?improved. Travel is the most resilient part of luxury. Adam Sebba is the CEO of The Luminaire, a luxury travel agency based in London. (Reporting and editing by Arpan Varghese, Sahal Muhammed and Anshuman Jain in Bengaluru)
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Iran proposes temporary Hormuz Plan giving it greater control over transit routes
Iran has proposed to Oman an arrangement that would temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Under this arrangement, one direction of traffic will pass through Iranian waters and part of the other route will also be in Iranian water. This was revealed by Kazem Gharibabadi on state television. Gharibabadi stated that Tehran rejected the Omani proposal of an equal division between transit routes in both countries. He said such a plan would not address Tehran's concerns about security until regional stability was achieved. He added that Tehran had never recognized the southern route along Oman’s coast. Gharibabadi said that Tehran had also?made it very clear to Muscat, that it does not recognise the Traffic Separation Scheme. This is because the path roughly in the middle lies mostly in Omani waters. It also runs counter to Iran's desire to?monitor the transiting vessels following the attack by the U.S. Due to a 'risk' of mines, the TSS adopted by IMO is not currently usable. Instead, Iran's northern and Oman's south routes have been substituted. Gharibabadi stated that "this is for national security, not for bullying. Because when the TSS spent 60 years in Omani water we did not say anything." The Iranian diplomat also warned that Tehran would not allow any country to demine the Strait of Hormuz, even if Oman invited them.
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Erdogan: Turkey wants to sign an energy deal with Iraq
After he met with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, President Tayyip 'Erdogan' said on Tuesday that Turkey wanted to sign a comprehensive deal for energy cooperation as soon as possible. Erdogan, speaking at a press conference held after a signing event that was expected to include a deal keeping the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline open 'for another year', said the state-owned Turkish oil and gas firm TPAO - would operate the Kirkuk oilfield currently used by BP. The deal to extend a decades-old agreement that governs the exports via the?pipeline, and which officially expired on Monday, was not signed by the sides. After signing three agreements?on collaboration in various fields?,?Erdogan stated that more agreements would be expected. However, his ministers abruptly briefed him on stage, and the two leaders then proceeded to their remarks, without any further signatures. The Iraq-Turkey crude petroleum pipeline agreement came to an end yesterday. Erdogan stated that the goal was to sign an energy agreement which would benefit both parties as soon as possible. In a press release on X, Turkish?Energy?Minister?Alparslan Bayraktar stated that TPAO acquired a 15 percent stake in BP Energy Company of Kirkuk?Limited. He added that this would enable the Turkish?company? to operate in the area. Bayraktar stated that "it will work with BPECKL to bring the 3 billion barrel reserve potential into production." BP has confirmed the agreement and welcomed the partnership between TPAO and BP.
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Sources say that China has been in contact with the Houthis of Yemen to allow ships to pass through the Red Sea.
Six sources familiar with the situation have confirmed that China held direct discussions with Yemen's Houthi Movement to allow its?tankers the freedom to navigate through the southern Red Sea, without fear of being attacked by the Iran-aligned militia. The 'Houthis' declared their blockade of the U.S. on July 20. This opened a new front in the Iran War against the U.S. According to sources, including a senior Iranian official, Beijing asked the Houthis to guarantee safe passage for their tankers. Sources who refused to be named due to the sensitive nature of the issue said that China was one of the first countries to directly contact the Houthis about transits across Bab el-Mandeb. Bab el-Mandeb is the strait between the Red Sea and Yemen at its southern end. Sources say that China cleans vessels individually with Houthis. Beijing wants to keep oil flowing out of Saudi Arabia via Yanbu terminals at the Red Sea, in order to plug the supply gap caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Requests for comments from the Houthis media office, China's Transport Ministry and Iran's Foreign Ministry were not immediately responded to. According to Kpler 'analysis, LSEG and MarineTraffic data on ship tracking and Kpler 'analysis, at least four tankers have travelled through Bab el-Mandeb and?loaded crude oil from Saudi ports bound for China since the Houthis announced restrictions. Two officials briefed on the situation by Tehran said that Chinese?officials had cleared each vessel with the Houthis individually. Both sides informed Iran about their actions. In an email, the Houthis warned international shipping companies that they could be attacked by Saudi Arabian authorities if their vessels load or discharge cargo in Saudi Arabian ports. Two separate Chinese sources confirmed that some tankers attempting to enter the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb changed their course due to safety concerns. TWO TANKERS - CHANGE COURSE IN ORDER TO AVOID STRAIT According to an analysis of data from MarineTraffic and Lloyd's List Intelligence, both the New Champion and New Prime supertankers sailed out of Gulf of Aden and into open water. According to Kpler, other industry data, and ship tracking, the New Prime had already been loaded with oil when it was due to arrive at Yanbu. Associated Maritime of Hong Kong did not respond immediately to a comment request. Last week, the Houthis claimed to have carried out missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tanksers: the Encelia & the Layla. The Encelia attack was confirmed by maritime security sources, but the Layla attack could not be immediately confirmed. It takes 16 days to travel southwards from Yanbu, through Bab el-Mandeb, towards Asia. It takes 50 days to sail around Africa and then turn north for the Suez Canal. Two sources close to Houthis said that the Houthis had good relations with China, and they have worked closely together in the past, particularly on oil shipments from Saudi Arabia to China. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey, Jonathan Saul, Parisa Haifezi, Mohammed Ghobari Timour Azhari Florence Tan Aizhu, Siyi Liu, Sam Li, and Florence Tan)
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The largest US power grid has plans to address the growing electricity shortages due to data center demand.
PJM Interconnection - the largest U.S. grid operator - which serves a fifth (or?americans) - announced this week it would 'file plans with federal regulatory authorities?to reduce a growing gap between a?electricity _supply on its system and a demand primarily brought by data centres. PJM, the grid operator for 13 U.S. States in the Mid-Atlantic region and Midwest, plans to submit two proposals to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to manage the surge in demand and secure more electricity on the grid. One of these plans establishes a "reliability-backstop procurement" that is designed to match supplies with the data center power requirements that cannot be met by long-term contracts. The backstop procurement will begin on September 30, and run until October 21, with the results being released in December. PJM is looking for ways to increase generation to meet the rapidly increasing electricity demand - largely due to the expansion of the data centers in this region. It anticipates that demand from new large energy consumers will increase by 70 gigawatts in 2038. A gigawatt can power approximately 750,000 homes. The backstop procurement process will cover any supply shortages that may have occurred in PJM’s recent power auctions. In its annual capacity auction, held this month in New York City, the power price was capped at $325 per Megawatt-day. Despite high prices meant to 'incentivize construction of new power stations, PJM failed to meet its reliability requirements by 6.8 gigawatts despite the high prices. This is a greater shortfall than the one that resulted from the previous auction. The'second proposal' that the PJM Board of Directors directed staff to submit with FERC, would create a database for data centers and other large energy 'users. This registry would track their location and electricity usage. PJM suggests that, for 'data centers that don't supply their own electricity, it could temporarily cut off the power to these sites if there is a high demand on a grid. This would help to prevent rolling blackouts. PJM stated that it 'doesn't have the capability to curtail this electricity, and would need the cooperation of each state government. Reporting by Laila K. Kearney, New York; Kavya B. Balaraman, Noel John and Mark Potter in Bengaluru. Editing by Mark Potter and Aurora Ellis.
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Sources say that three Russian Black Sea terminals have restricted grain shipments by truck due to shipping risks.
Five industry sources have confirmed that three major Russian Black Sea grain terminals have limited grain deliveries via?truck due to increased shipping risks and the increased flow of grain following restrictions on the Sea of Azov. This month, Russia, the largest exporter of wheat in the world, has restricted shipping on the Sea of Azov after Ukrainian drones targeted several Russian grain ships along the route. The route accounts for about a quarter of Russia's grain exports. The authorities redirected grain that was previously shipped by rail and truck through the Sea of Azov from the fertile south to terminals at the Black Sea. Attacks on ports in the Black Sea have also increased. One source said, "Risks have increased and people are less willing to take reckless, bold risks." TERMINALS SHIP MORE THEN 20 MILLION TONES OF GRAIN Sources said that the three terminals in Novorossiysk -- NZT, KSK and ZTKT -- had limited deliveries by road. They can ship a total of more than 20 million tons of grains annually. The total annual Russian seaborne grains exports is around 50 million tonnes. One source said that the two terminals at Novorossiysk are able to accept grain by rail. However, these deliveries can only come from the southern Russian regions. ZTKT only accepts grain by truck. About a third is transported by truck. The terminals are a major supplier of grain to Russia, including Egypt and Turkey. The terminal owners, Delo Group and Demetra, have not responded to requests for comment. Sources said that the port of Kavkaz was shut almost immediately following restrictions imposed by the?Sea of Azov?on 10 July. A week ago, Russia banned vessel movements into and out of Novorossiysk port at night due to drone attacks. Another source confirmed that the ban is still in place. BALTIC PORTS ARE SEEN AS SAFEST ALTERNATIVE? Sources say that Russia is looking to diversify its exports. The Baltic region will be the priority in the future, as it's the most safe alternative route. Sources said that the Caspian Sea route was also an option. However, it's mainly used to ship goods to Iran. The risks are increasing due the the Middle East war and the recent attack by the Ukrainians on an Iranian vessel. Sources claim that shipments via the Caspian haven't increased since mid-July. (Reporting and Editing by Jan Harvey).
Special Report-Why Tesla AI trainers do not trust self-driving technology or safety statistics
In an office in Utah, hundreds of Tesla employees scrutinize the video footage collected by cars using the Full Self-Driving feature (FSD). In some clips, the cars are shown hitting deer or cats. Other clips show more common accidents. They sometimes don't stop before hitting. They speed up a lot. Sometimes, workers witness children playing on the street.
These Tesla staffers, also known as "data labels," train the AI-powered Tesla driver-assistance system. They note incidents of good driving and bad driving, and report problems to engineers who are working to improve the software.
Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, says that FSD will "soon" make all Teslas autonomous. Interviews with nine former Tesla labelers and an ex-self-driving engineering show that in recent months, the technology has struggled to perform basic maneuvers such as avoiding emergencies or stopping to let school buses load or unload students. (View the article on.com:)
Musk and other executives continue to tout the safety of FSD, despite its dangerous flaws. They have pushed Tesla into staging public demonstrations of the fully automated capability that the CEO has "promised" investors each year for the past decade. Displays include a robotaxi in Austin, Texas that was launched in June last year with human safety monitors inside the cars as well as others who worked remotely.
Four former Tesla employees said that as the events neared, Tesla staffers spent long hours mapping routes, and training software to recognize specific hazards, in order to make self-driving cars appear more capable. Staffers claimed that these labor-intensive safety measures are not feasible to implement on a large scale. These efforts, which were not previously reported, undermine Musk’s claim that Tesla’s self-driving tech will soon work globally, and won't need the laborious mapping of local roads and hazards used by competitors. Musk said Tesla relies on AI and cameras to simplify its approach. This will allow Tesla to expand its robotaxi service with "hyperexponential speed" and give current Tesla owners complete autonomy via software updates.
Musk and other Tesla leaders have reinforced the impression of robocompetence by citing statistics about company safety that, they claim, prove FSD to be up to 10x safer than human driving.
A? A?examen of Tesla's statistical method and interviews with?company?insiders shows Tesla isn't near delivering safely self-driving cars at scale, a promise that underpins the automaker's stock-market valuation of $1.6 trillion. This included an analysis of how Tesla compares their own crash data with federal crash data, a comparison of the more rigorous methodology used by robotaxi rival Waymo and interviews with eleven traffic-safety experts who reviewed Tesla's method. The review identified several invalid data comparisons that were used to support the statistics in Tesla’s FSD safety reports. Ten researchers claimed this was misleading marketing, rather than an investigation into a crucial safety issue.
Tesla, for example, exaggerates safety of the technology by comparing a crash rate in FSD-piloted Teslas which triggered airbag deployments with a federal accident rate for all vehicles, including far less severe accidents. Tesla also compares their cars with the average U.S. car, which is older than the typical Tesla. Researchers said that this results are distorted because automakers all have launched safety features to reduce accidents.
"Any new vehicle is significantly safer than an old car," said Phil Koopman. He's a Carnegie Mellon University professor of engineering and an expert in autonomous vehicles. It's like saying, "My jet plane is faster than your World War II Bomber." Yeah, then what's the point?
Tesla did not respond to the detailed questions for this report. Tesla's CFO Vaibhav Tania first claimed that the robotaxi was 10-times safer in July last year, following Tesla's Austin launch. Robyn Denholm, Tesla Board Chair, repeated the claim at a meeting in November where shareholders approved an incentive package that would grant Musk up to $1 trillion worth of Tesla stock. Musk displayed at the same meeting a chart that claimed "85% fewer crashes" based on the recently revised Tesla method.
Musk said to shareholders that he felt "almost comfortable" allowing drivers to text while driving. In the next few months, we'll be closely examining safety statistics. But we will let you text while driving.
Tesla still hasn't approved texting while driving using FSD six months after it was first announced. The fine print of its FSD site continues to warn that "currently enabled features require active supervisory supervision and do NOT make the vehicle autonomic." Tesla has often cited this disclaimer when sued for serious accidents.
FSD has been widely recognized as a technology capable of handling a wide range of driving situations and can do so for extended periods. Full autonomy is still elusive to Tesla and other car companies because it requires flawless technology execution, even in the most complicated driving situations.
Seven former data labelers said they would not trust FSD to drive them. One said, "We've all seen it fail." One man said that he would not ride in a Tesla Robotaxi "if you paid me." Another self-driving expert, who has studied Tesla crash data over the years, called Tesla's safety claims "bullshit."
The engineer replied, "I don't think you can trust Elon with this."
'TRAUMA TEAM REVIEWS NEAR MISSES
Tesla's data labels get an up-close look at FSD capabilities by reviewing footage from eight exterior cameras equipped vehicles.
Former employees said that FSD failed to perform basic tasks such as stopping for emergency vehicles or giving motorcycles enough room. They saw FSD vehicles failing to brake at freeway exit ramps. One Tesla even hit a concrete barrier. The footage, according to them, did not show if anyone was injured. Two employees claimed that clips showed FSD not avoiding construction zones. One of these incidents involved a Tesla driving into the construction zone and nearly hitting workers, according to one person.
This account is based on the descriptions provided by former staffers of the footage they saw.
Managers at Tesla carefully control access to videos. Employees only watch the clips that they are assigned. They may or may be able to see FSD's biggest failures.
Three employees reported that one data-labeling group focused on pedestrians who were close to being hit. One source claimed that the employees were known informally as "the trauma team" and worked in Palo Alto in California with special access to the footage. The trauma-team footage was closely guarded by engineers, but sometimes, some footage "slipped through" to the other teams, according to the source.
Both the person and an employee claimed to have seen clips of drivers taking control manually at the last moment when FSD failed recognize pedestrians at crosswalks. Two former employees remembered seeing videos of FSD-piloted Teslas almost hitting children last year.
Tesla has faced federal investigations, lawsuits, and other legal proceedings for many years involving fatal crashes that were blamed by drivers or regulators on the failure of FSD, or its older Autopilot system. In 2021, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation on Autopilot after a number of accidents involving Teslas hitting emergency vehicles. In 2023, the investigation led to a recall where Tesla installed software updates to detect when drivers are not paying attention.
NHTSA is currently conducting four investigations on FSD and Autopilot. One of these involves dozens cases in which vehicles using FSD did not stop at red lights or turned towards traffic. A second investigation examines whether Tesla's Autopilot upgrades for 2023 were adequate to solve the safety issues. The agency is investigating nine FSD incidents, including one fatal crash where the system failed due to reduced visibility, such as in fog or sun glare. Tesla was awarded $243 million last year after an Autopiloted Tesla crash in Florida killed a woman aged 22 and seriously injured her boyfriend. Tesla has appealed. The company settled similar cases without disclosing the terms in several other similar cases.
NHTSA did not respond to a question from NHTSA about the safety of FSDs and Tesla's method when asked by NHTSA. The agency referred any questions regarding Tesla's safety claims over to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission.
The FTC refused to comment on Tesla’s safety statistics. Consumer advocacy groups and U.S. Senators have asked the FTC to look into Tesla's marketing for Autopilot and FSD.
Tesla has not been subjected to any enforcement action by the FTC.
STATS INFLATED ON TESLA'S FSD SAFETY
Tesla's CEO and board boosted their claims of safety as employees watched the videos. Tesla's leaders promoted this 10-times safer claim for much of the last year.
Tesla CFO Taneja stated in a call to discuss earnings that "a car with FSD will be 10x safer". "Even with $99 per month, you get a personal driver for less than $3.33 per day."
Tesla's method is flawed because of a comparison error. This led to a three-fold increase in the claimed level of safety. The automaker compared data from all crashes involving a tow truck with the number of Tesla crashes that had airbags deployed. This was a much less strict criterion. Tow truck crashes are often not severe enough to activate airbags.
Tesla used a flawed methodology, even though the federal data that it used included crashes in which airbags were deployed. The flawed methodology led to the conclusion that Teslas with FSD or Autopilot traveled 10 times further between crashes than an average human driver.
According to Marco Benedetti's analysis, a former NHTSA statistician and assistant research scientist from the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Teslas with driver-assistance systems are three times more likely to travel between crashes in which airbags were deployed. Two other traffic safety researchers confirmed Benedetti’s calculations.
Benedetti explained that Tesla's method is flawed in several ways, and this does not mean FSD makes a driver three times more safe than an average driver.
Tesla changed its approach to only include data from vehicles that use FSD in November and excluded those using Autopilot. Tesla claimed more miles between crashes by including Autopilot because it is a less complex system that's designed for highways, where cars travel fewer miles and crash less often than in urban areas. On its website, the company continues to cite the flawed airbag crash comparison to claim that FSD is 7 times safer than an average driver. This amounts to 85% in percentage terms.
The findings of a study cast doubts on the safety of FSD.
When comparing its crash rates to those of the nation, the automaker does not take into account the age of the vehicle. Tesla compares the average age of its cars, which is just 4.1, with that of all U.S. vehicles which averages 12.8. Ten safety researchers said that this skews results because most automakers are now offering revolutionary safety features across their entire lineup, such as blind-spot detection and automatic emergency brakes.
Tesla reduces the number of crashes by counting only those that occur with FSD on or within 5 seconds after it is turned off. The U.S. Government, on the other hand, requires automakers report crashes that occur within 30 seconds after an advanced driver assistance system is deactivated.
Tesla claims FSD can save over 32,000 lives each year and prevent 1.9 million injuries. Researchers in traffic safety have called these figures meaningless, because they assume that all U.S. vehicles, including trucks and motorcycles that are crash-prone, will be replaced with Tesla cars that support FSD, and that each Tesla is at least seven-times safer than its predecessor.
The More?Rigorous Approach of WAYMO
Ten traffic safety researchers have said that the premise behind Tesla's statistics on safety is flawed as well, because FSD isn’t a true autonomous system. Tesla's executives are wrong when they claim that the company is comparing its technology with human drivers. Tesla isn't comparing its technology to human drivers, as executives claim. Instead, it compares the average driver with another human who drives a Tesla and uses FSD. Tesla fails to take into account that these drivers are able to turn FSD off and on. Research shows that motorists avoid advanced driver-assistance technologies in traffic situations with high levels of complexity, as they feel unsafe. Tesla's data indicates that FSD is mostly used on highways.
Alphabet Waymo compares its driverless robotaxis in 11 U.S. metro areas to similar human-driven cars.
Waymo adopts a more rigorous strategy than Tesla. It examines crash data from the markets in which it operates, and adjusts for the type of roads and neighborhoods that its robotaxis travel. Waymo looks at specific crash rates, such as airbag deployments and serious injuries. This is for both human-driven cars and Waymo's cars.
John Scanlon is a Waymo researcher who specializes in safety. "You have to be very specific with your research questions and conclusions."
Waymo, meanwhile, points out flaws in its data as well as collaborating with external researchers to publish its safety statistics in peer reviewed journals. Tesla, on the other hand, does not seek peer review, and only publishes top-line statistics about safety, while keeping Tesla's crash data secret.
VIDEOS OF TESLAS STRIVING DOGS, CATS AND DEAR
Data labelers at Tesla get a raw look at FSD safety. Three former Tesla employees have described videos of Teslas hitting animals at high speed without braking.
Five former employees stated that specific teams were focused on FSD’s difficulties recognizing school busses. The Dawn Project, a technology safety group, raised this concern by airing ads at the Super Bowls of 2023 and 2024 showing Teslas with FSD enabled failing to stop for school buses with flashing lights and stop signs.
Two former Tesla employees have said that they saw videos similar to those in Tesla.
Five former data labelers have described a chaotic, hurried work environment, where priorities were constantly changing based on Musk's and FSD's engineers' directives. They said that the data-labeling department was plagued by a high turnover rate due to monotonous work and low pay.
Four former employees claim that Tesla's higher-ups would often launch new projects as a reaction to news stories or social media posts that showed FSD making mistakes. One project was to fix the problem of sunlight obscuring exterior cameras on cars. A social media video showed how the light reflected off a watch of a passenger blinded a camera, shutting FSD down. A second effort was made at railroad crossings after news reports that Teslas with FSD failed to stop there.
Five of the employees also said that FSD clips regularly showed speeding. Engineers and other people higher up in the chain treated this as a problem with low priority.
After the automaker launched a "Mad Max mode" that allows for more aggressive driving, one employee reported labelers regularly seeing Teslas exceeding speed limits of 20-30 miles per hour. One labeler said he saw a vehicle driven by FSD traveling at 60 mph within a 25 mph zone.
TESLA PUBLIC ROBOTAXI DISPLAYS: BEHIND THE CURTAIN
Musk announced Tesla's self driving capabilities in October 2024, as Tesla employees struggled with FSD training. The robotaxi was unveiled at Warner Bros. Studios near Los Angeles. Musk showed off about 20 two-door prototypes of his "Cybercab" which had no pedals or steering wheel, to the invite-only audience.
He said, "The cars just pass by without any people."
Musk said Tesla's software was designed to navigate unfamiliar landscapes and work anywhere. Two former data-labeling workers claim that for the weeks leading up to the Cybercab launch, the staff collected video footage of the route the cars would take at the event. The employees claimed that labelers spent hundreds hours on video annotating road markings and curbs to avoid embarrassing incidents.
Musk has dismissed this approach as being too expensive and slow. Musk called Waymo's'very localized solutions' "quite fragile" in 2024.
Musk announced on a call for earnings in January 2025 that Tesla will launch robotaxis in Austin in June 2025, after the Warner Bros. presentation. He hailed the technology as "a generalized AI solution," which didn't need "high precision maps of a specific location."
Tesla filmed stop lights, road signage and other features for months prior to the Austin launch. Two employees who have direct knowledge of this matter say that data labelers marked up the video to make sure the software was capable of handling challenging scenarios. These included passenger pickups and responding to emergency vehicles.
Three employees claimed that the Utah data-labeling team doubled in the half-year prior to the Austin launch, from about 100 workers to 300. They said that the department worked on a variety of projects in order to ensure that the Austin test went smoothly.
Two employees reported that the software was still unreliable as Tesla data labelers were preparing for the "rollout". Some driving behaviors improved with each FSD upgrade. Some driving behaviors improved with each FSD update. Two large screens in the Utah office displayed statistics on FSD, a key safety metric for autonomous driving.
Former employees stated that the company's performance was "like the stock market", with no consistency in improvement.
Two sets of human safety monitors are available for the vehicles to hit the road: one in the front passenger's seat and another watching remotely. Labelers in Utah could watch videos to see when remote monitors were taking control of the vehicles. Former employee stated that the Austin routes were created for a small area to allow the software of the cars to be extensively trained on specific maneuvers in particular streets.
The person who said this described it as "OK, we taught a car" how to operate within a restricted area. "You can't be creative outside of this."
Four sources stated that scaling up in a safe manner could take many years. Musk said in July that the robotaxi service would be expanded to cover half of the U.S. by 2025, just a month after its launch in Austin. Musk claimed falsely in January that Tesla operated 500 “robotaxi vehicles” in Austin and San Francisco Bay Area. He added that he expected this to "double each month" along an "exponential" curve.
According to a recent presentation by officials, Tesla operates less than 50 robotaxis in Austin, despite the launch of the service nearly a full year ago. Three sources confirmed that the vehicles travel within a carefully-mapped and limited zone. According to recent observations made by a journalist, some vehicles still have human safety monitors on the front passenger's seat.
Tesla announced in April that it would be launching robotaxis throughout Dallas and Houston. It also provided maps of the areas covered. Reporters who tested the service recently in both cities reported long wait times and inconsistent availability. When a reporter was able to get a ride three times in Dallas, the robotaxi would not drop him off at his destination downtown within Tesla's service area.
Every time it took him 15 minutes to walk. (By Chris Kirkham, Los Angeles; and Rachael LEVY, Washington. Sheila Dang, Norihiko Schirouzu, and Benjamin Lesser contributed additional reporting. Brian Thevenot, David Crawshaw and Brian Thevenot edited the story.
(source: Reuters)