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Fed rate cut betting revived, in a small way, by the ceasefire in the Iran war
Federal Reserve policymakers could consider lowering interest rates this year, now that the?announcement of a two-week pause in the Iran conflict?has eased fears about a resurgence of inflation. However, with the uncertainty surrounding the prospects for peace, and oil prices 30% higher than their prewar level, it is still far from certain. On Wednesday, traders bet on the possible impact of a lasting Middle East settlement and the reopening of Strait of Hormuz for shipping. Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and an Iranian attack on a Saudi Arabian pipeline have raised uncertainty about the temporary truce. Minutes from the Fed meeting of March showed that some central bankers were willing to raise rates if inflation remained high. The data expected this week is likely to show that consumer prices rose in March at an unprecedented pace, not seen since 2022 when post-pandemic inflation peaked and triggered a round of aggressive Fed rate increases. Fed policymakers have said that a temporary spike in headline prices would not warrant a change in short-term rates. However, a longer-lasting conflict and higher prices which could affect household finances could force policymakers to make a tough choice. They could either keep rates high in order to combat inflation, or reduce rates to cushion the economy. As a U.S. peace delegation was heading to Pakistan this weekend for talks, traders hedged their bets. Interest rate futures contracts reflect a 1 in 4 chance that the U.S. will cut interest rates by year's end. This is down from a 65% probability of a rate reduction priced immediately following the ceasefire. However, it's also a big shift from the time before the ceasefire when traders had already built in some chances of a Fed interest rate hike. Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha wrote: "With conditions less likely to force the Fed to raise this year, we believe the market should be pricing closer to a full cut in the U.S.," The'shift in expectations of central banks after the ceasefire announcement is more apparent elsewhere - traders are reducing their bets that multiple rate increases by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England would occur. Mary Daly of the San Francisco Fed did not dwell on the implications of a ceasefire for interest rate policy when she spoke Wednesday. She told the St. George Area Chamber of Commerce that it is too early to tell how the 'Iran War and higher oil prices will affect the economy, because it depends how long the conflict lasts. She said, "There is a concern this may push inflation higher: it's our responsibility to focus on that." "There's concern that the labor market might not be as solid. But we don't see that. We're just seeing it settle in a good spot." (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci)
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Israeli strikes on Gaza kill four including Al Jazeera journalists, doctors say
Local health officials and Qatari television reported that Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip resulted in the deaths of four people, including an Al Jazeera reporter. Health authorities reported that the strike which killed Al Jazeera's Mohammed?Washah was on a vehicle that he and another Palestinian were driving along a?coastal route in Gaza City. The military accused Washah in February 2024 at the height of the?Israeli?war on Gaza of being a Hamas military wing member. The photos, it claimed, showed him using weapons systems. The photos were found on a computer, which it claimed troops had taken during a raid to Gaza. Hamas, and Al Jazeera both denied Washah's affiliation at the time. Israel's military didn't immediately reply to a request for a comment about his death. Al Jazeera reported that the drone attack killed him. Hamas's government-run media office in Gaza has condemned the killing of Washah. Two more people killed in Gaza Medics in Gaza reported that an Israeli airstrike had killed two people, but did not provide any details. Israel's military did not immediately comment on the incident. Israel and Hamas signed a deal in October last year, mediated by the United States. The agreement was intended to stop violence on?Palestinian soil. Both sides accuse one another of breaching the agreement. Since the agreement, Israeli fire has killed 700 people. Israel claims that four militants have killed Israeli soldiers during the same time period. Israel has killed Al Jazeera reporters in Gaza and the West Bank occupation. Anas Al-Sharif, a journalist for Al Jazeera, was killed in August 2025 along with four of his colleagues by an Israeli airstrike. The military claimed he was the leader of a Hamas militant group, but Al Jazeera denied this. Shireen Abu-Akleh, a U.S. citizen and Palestinian, was killed by Israeli troops in May 2022 while covering a military mission in Jenin, a West Bank city. According to the military, an investigation concluded that she was most likely killed unintentionally by Israeli forces. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 223 journalists and media professionals were killed in Gaza and Lebanon. Journalists working for the. According to CPJ, the count includes 210 Palestinians who were killed by Israel on Gaza, 11 by Israel in Lebanon and two Israelis killed in the Hamas attack in October 2023, which started the Gaza War. CPJ claims that Israel has never made anyone responsible for the killing of journalists by its military. A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said that they have targeted only combatants and military targets, avoiding civilians and journalists. They also warned about the inherent dangers of staying in active battle zones, despite their best efforts to minimize harm. The military has claimed at times without providing any verifiable proof that journalists were murdered because they had links with Hamas. Their news organizations denied this.
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Delta halts growth plans due to fuel price spike
Delta Air Lines, on Wednesday, halted all capacity expansions for the current quarter. The company also forecast a profit that was below Wall Street's expectations. It warned that the Iran War would drive up jet fuel costs by more than $2 billion in the quarter ending June. Ed Bastian, CEO of the Atlanta-based carrier, said that it was "imprudent" to give an updated outlook for the full year due to uncertainty about how long fuel prices would remain high. Extreme swings in jet-fuel prices have forced airlines to rethink their growth plans. According to the trade group Airlines for America, jet fuel prices were $4.81 per gallon on February 8, up from $2.50 before the first U.S./Israeli strike on Iran in February. Delta expects to spend about $4.30 per gallon during the second quarter. The U.S. president Donald Trump announced late on Tuesday a ceasefire of two weeks with Iran. This sparked a rally for airline stocks and a drop in oil prices to below $100 per barrel. Delta's shares rose 6% during midday trading. Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, Alaska Airlines and?American Airlines all saw their shares rise between 7% to 11%. Bastian, Delta's chief financial officer, told analysts on the earnings call: "We woke this morning with very different fuel assumptions from what we had before we went to sleep." He said that the company expected oil prices to remain "higher" for a longer period of time than originally predicted, making immediate relief uncertain. Some airline executives also stated that they don't see any immediate relief. Fuel costs typically account for about a quarter of airline operating expenses, making carriers vulnerable when fuel prices rise faster than the fares which are usually set months or weeks in advance. The current price increase is the first major stress test for the airline industry after the pandemic. It will be a test of how much they can charge travelers and how quickly costs will rise. Bastian stated that it would accelerate structural changes across the industry. He said, "It will separate the winners from the losers and force the weaker ones to take some significant steps either to get better or to do something else." CARRIERS SLASH LOWER MARGIN ROUTES Delta announced that it would reduce capacity by approximately 3.5 percentage points compared to its original plan. It noted that its growth forecast now has a “downward bias” until fuel prices improve. The capacity reductions are mainly aimed at lower-revenue flights, like overnight red-eye flights or some midweek services. To conserve fuel and protect margins, other carriers have begun to trim schedules as well, especially on routes with lower margins and travel that is less time sensitive. Since March 13, U.S. Airlines have reduced planned domestic capacity by more than a half-point. Airlines have so far relied on the still-strong demand for travel to recover a portion of their higher fuel bills through fare increases and baggage fees, as well as other ancillary fees. Bastian stated that Delta aims to recover between 40% and 50% of the higher fuel costs during the second quarter. On Tuesday, Delta announced that it would be increasing the 'checked bag fees' for new bookings. This follows similar moves by United Airlines and JetBlue Airways. Bastian hinted that the increased fees might stick. He said that at this price of fuel it is hard to say anything was temporary. He downplayed concerns that higher fares and charges could impact demand. He said ticket sales have increased at a double-digit rate year-on-year in the last month, and momentum has continued into the second quarter. He said that higher-income travelers are resilient, and Delta has yet to notice any change in demand. Delta, unlike its main rivals, has a buffer that is a Pennsylvania-based refinery owned by a subsidiary. The refinery is expected to generate $300 million in revenue in the second quarter. This is up from $60 million in March. Delta anticipates earnings adjusted of $1.00 to $1.50 a share for the quarter ending June. According to LSEG, the midpoint of the forecast is $1.25, which is below the average $1.41 that analysts are expecting. The airline's adjusted earnings per share for the March quarter were 64 cents, exceeding analysts' expectations of 57 cents. In January, the company forecast adjusted earnings per share of $6.50 - $7.50 for the full year. According to LSEG data, analysts now expect earnings per share of $5.40.
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Panama calls on China to respect its port rulings after detention of ships
Panama's top diplomatic official said on Wednesday that a.rise in inspections and.detentions of Panama flagged vessels in China was.caused by a Panama court decision.against Hong Kong based CK.Hutchison.and urged China to respect Panama's sovereign affairs. Panama's Supreme Court invalidated in January the legal framework that supported conglomerate CK Hutchison’s right to operate two key terminals close to the Panama Canal via its Panama unit, leading the Panama government cancel the cancellation of concessions. At a?conference in Asuncion, the capital of Paraguay, Panamanian foreign minister Javier Martinez-Acha expressed his hope that the increase in ship detentions seen in March will return to normal. He said that the ruling has led to an increase in the number of inspections and detentions of vessels flying our flags in ports of People's Republic of China. "Panama... respects the legal sovereignty of all countries and we ask only for the same treatment." The Chinese embassy in Panama didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Detentions are the latest flashpoint of the battle between China and the United States for influence on international trade. Panama, and its strategic canal that handles about 5% global maritime trade, is in the middle. Panama's Foreign Affairs Ministry thanked United States and other countries on Saturday for expressing concern about the detentions. The U.S. Maritime Commission, which is part of the U.S. Department of State, said in late March that it was closely watching the increase in the number of Panama-flagged ships being detained in China. China opposes CK Hutchison losing its port concessions and calls it "an act of bad faith." CK Hutchison has accused the Panamanian authorities of illegally seizing properties and filed an international arbitration against Panama. The company is claiming damages in excess of $2 billion. (Reporting from Asuncion by Daniela DeSantis; Writing by Brendan O'Boyle, Editing by Daina-Beth Solomon)
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Lufthansa cabin staff union announces one-day strike
This week, Lufthansa will be facing a one-day walkout. It's the third strike in just two months. The UFO cabin crew union has asked staff from the core Lufthansa and its feeder airline, Cityline, to strike for one day on Friday. The strike is expected to affect all Lufthansa flights departing from Frankfurt and Munich from 12:01 am to 10 pm local time (2201 GMT on Thursday to 2200 GMT on Friday), according to the Independent Flight Attendants' Organisation. The Cityline cabin staff at nine German airports will also walk out in the same time period. The vast majority of respondents to a vote held at the end March voted for strike action as a result of the failure of negotiations. The union stated that Lufthansa had shown no flexibility in negotiations regarding the working conditions of the 19,000 cabin staff members or the redundancy packages for approximately 800 employees at Cityline who are about to shut down their operations. Joachim Vazquez-Burger, UFO's chief executive officer, said: "This situation was avoidable. Lufthansa is responsible for this. They have not yet been able to present a negotiation-friendly proposal." The demands include more predictability in shifts, and longer notice periods. Lufthansa has called on the union to restart talks. Martin Leutke, a spokesperson for UFO, said: "We apologize to our guests for the inconvenience that their disproportionate and short-notice strike caused." UFO and Vereinigung Cockpit, the pilots union, went on strike for one day against Lufthansa in mid-February. This led to mass flight cancellations. The pilots again applied pressure in mid-March, with a 2-day strike. The pay dispute continues. This pay dispute is ongoing.
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Bangladesh wants more fuel from India to repair relations
As the foreign minister of the new government, Khalilur Rahman, made his first ministerial trip to New Delhi on Wednesday, Bangladesh sought to increase its fuel purchases. This is a sign that the strained relations between the two countries may be improving. Rahman met with India's Petroleum and Natural Gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri during his two-day trip. They discussed energy cooperation, among other things. Rahman thanked India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar for recent diesel shipments, and requested higher volumes of fuel and fertilizer. Puri indicated that the request would?be considered "readily and favorably," according to a Bangladeshi foreign ministry statement. Bangladesh relies heavily on energy imports that have been affected by the U.S./Israeli war in Iran. The visit is a first diplomatic outreach from the government of Prime Minister Tarique?Rahman who was elected in February after a landslide victory. The discussions also included easing travel restrictions, and strengthening security co-operation. According to a statement, India said visa procedures for Bangladeshis - particularly those who travel for medical or business reasons - would be eased in the next few weeks. The two countries share a 4,000 km border and have deep cultural and economic ties. However, the relationship between them deteriorated in 2024 after Bangladesh's ex-prime minister Sheikh Hasina fled New Delhi following mass protests. Dhaka reiterated its call for Hasina to be extradited after she was sentenced by the International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh, according to a statement. Rahman met with Ajit Doval from India, the National Security Advisor. The talks covered broader regional and global issues as well as the need to increase cooperation across sectors. Both countries suspended visa services as attacks on Bangladesh's Hindu minority exacerbated tensions. India also imposed a?port restriction on certain goods from Bangladesh. Recent signs of a thaw had been seen, but there were?already recent signs that the relationship was beginning to improve. Subrahmanyam?Jaishankar, the Indian Foreign Minister, visited Bangladesh in December?to attend the funeral of Tarique Rahman's mother Khaleda Zia and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra?Modi was one of the first leaders who congratulated him after he won his election.
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US military is ready to restart Iran war if diplomacy fails
On Wednesday, the top U.S. General said that U.S. soldiers were ready to resume combat if Tehran did not reach a negotiated settlement. The Trump administration was trying to portray this 'war' as a decisive win against Iran. The remarks were made a day after Donald Trump backed away from a threatened civilization ending assault on Iran, on Tuesday night. Two hours before the deadline that he set for Tehran to open up the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials and Iranian officials will meet for talks in Pakistan on Friday. "We hope Iran chooses peace," said General Dan Caine at a Pentagon press conference. "A ceasefire, is just a pause, and the joint forces remain ready to resume combat operations if called or ordered --?with the speed and precision we have shown over the past 38 days." Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipe, its sole outlet for crude exports at the moment, was still hit by an Iranian attack despite the ceasefire. Saudi Arabia reported that it had intercepted nine drones in the last few hours, while Kuwait claimed to have been attacked by Iranian drones. US. STRATEGIC WIN OR GAINS? Tehran has claimed victory, and said it will enter the talks with no trust in U.S. negotiating teams. In a recent statement, Iran's Supreme National Security Council stated that the enemy had suffered a historic, crushing and undeniable defeat in its illegal, unjust and criminal war on the Iranian people. Pete Hegseth of the U.S. Department of Defense, on the other hand, described Iran as a defeated military power with no choice but to reach a deal. Hegseth, Caine and others spoke of the destruction of Iran’s missile and defense industries. Hegseth stated that the U.S. Military was "hanging out" in the Middle East, to "ensure Iran adheres to the two-week truce and monitor the country's stockpile of enriched uranium." He added that the United States will take action "if necessary." Hegseth said that President Trump could have crippled Iran's economy in just minutes but chose mercy. Caine outlined the tactical victories the U.S. Military had made, including the destruction of about 80% of Iran's Air Defense Systems, the?attack on 90% of its Weapons factories, and the sinking of approximately 90% of the regular naval fleet. Experts say that the strategic goals have not been achieved, as the Iranian regime is still largely intact. Tehran could be even more confident in the future. U.S. troops are in the Middle East, and that number is increasing. U.S. officials said that the movement of Marines from San Diego to the Middle East was continuing for the time being. In the 38-day conflict, 13 U.S. soldiers were killed and 372 injured. The vast majority had returned to duty. Last week, the U.S. conducted operations to save two airmen who had been forced from their plane after it was shot down over Iran. The successful evacuation ended one of most dangerous episodes of the war.
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Iran strikes Saudi Arabia oil pipeline hours after ceasefire
An industry source said that Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline only a few hours after a ceasefire agreement was reached to pause the Iran war. It hit its sole crude oil export route ever since hostilities started. An industry source said that the Iranians targeted Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline - its sole outlet for exporting crude - as well as other facilities within the Kingdom. After?Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and trapped huge quantities of oil and natural gas in the Gulf, prices soared. Sources said that the flow of oil through the pipeline is expected to be affected. Damages are being assessed. This could worsen what experts call the world's worst energy crisis. In a statement released on Wednesday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that they had struck several?targets throughout the region using missiles and /drones. This included what the IRGC referred to as oil facilities owned by U.S. firms in Yanbu. It was not immediately known the exact time of the attack, nor the extent of damage or impact on the pipeline operations. Saudi Aramco, the pipeline operator and office of government communication in Saudi Arabia, did not respond immediately to requests for comments sent via email. The United States, Iran and Pakistan agreed on Tuesday to a ceasefire of two weeks that was mediated by Pakistan. This is meant to stop a six-week war which has claimed thousands of lives and spread throughout the Middle East. It also caused an unprecedented disruption to the energy market. The agreement did not stop the attacks on other Gulf states. Kuwaiti Army said an intensified wave Iranian attacks have targeted the country since 8am. Local time (0500 GMT), the Kuwaiti army added that drone attacks had caused extensive damage to oil installations, power plants and desalination plant. Bahrain reported that an Iranian strike?damaged homes in the Sitra region. Aramco uses approximately 2 million bpd from the East-West Pipeline capacity for domestic use, leaving about 5 million bpd to be exported. Shipping data revealed that Yanbu loadings were near capacity at 4.6 million bpd during the week beginning March 23. A recent analysis showed that the pipeline's estimated oil revenues in March were higher than the previous year.
Southwest will fly wine free as an airline fee rises
Southwest Airlines is offering to fly wine?free of charge from certain parts of the United States. West Coast airlines have launched new flights to California's wine country, a rare freebie in an era of high fuel prices.
The carrier announced on Wednesday that passengers will be able to "check in one case of wine" for free starting April 24, mainly from the wine regions along the West coast. The carrier announced its decision as it began service to Santa Rosa, California on Tuesday. Southwest Airlines and Delta Air Lines announced this week that they will increase fees for checked baggage, following the lead of United Airlines and JetBlue in the U.S. to offset rising jet fuel prices linked to the Middle East war. Jet fuel prices have been rising in the global aviation industry, and are expected to continue for several months despite a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. Iran.
Since the pandemic began, U.S. airlines have built their business on premium travelers, corporate accounts, and loyalty program members. They bet that these customers will not pull out when fares increase.
(source: Reuters)