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Air France-KLM exceeds its quarterly profit forecasts but reduces capacity estimates
Air France-KLM lowered its full-year guidance on capacity on?Thursday, despite a?drop that was lower than expected in the second quarter profit after revenue increases?from premium and long-haul flights. The airline group has increased ticket prices and its premium offerings to maintain profits during a downturn in the industry. However, KLM (Dutch arm) said that improvements weren't enough to improve its financial base. The Iran War has pushed up jet fuel prices and caused a reduction in capacity, so global carriers are racing to take advantage of the lucrative summer season to avoid financial problems later in the year. The Franco-Dutch Group posted a second-quarter adjusted profit of EUR484million ($552.5million), down from EUR736million?in the same time period last year, but higher than EUR327million consensus polled from the company. Benjamin Smith, the CEO of the group, said that the company had delivered a strong commercial performance, thanks to the steady demand for luxury travel, particularly in the Asian and North American market. IRAN WAR WEIGHS FORECASTS Marjan Rintel, KLM's Chief Executive Officer, said in an independent statement that global uncertainty, rising costs and intense competition will continue to "pose structural problems". Iran's war is the latest challenge to KLM's finances, which are already struggling at Amsterdam Schiphol. Rintel stated, "We need to be realistic. One good half-year will not make KLM structurally robust and strong." Air France-KLM has lowered its full-year expectations. It now expects a 1% decrease in short- and medium-haul flight numbers and an increase between 2%-3% for group flights. This is a second cut from the forecast of 3% to 5 percent made in February, before the conflict in the Middle East erupted. Steven Zaat, the finance chief at the Ministry of Finance, told reporters that the reductions will be mainly seen in the fourth quarter. AIR FRANCE-KLM BIDS FOR ?TAP STAKE Fuel bill estimates for 2026 were lowered by 4%, to $8.9 Billion. The company said that the fuel costs would be lower due to newer, more efficient aircraft and jet fuel hedges. The airline group could benefit from cheap consolidation after the Middle East conflict reduced the sector's profit forecast for 2026 by nearly half and forced weaker carriers to restructuring or buyouts. The group made a binding bid on Wednesday for a stake in Portugal's TAP of at least 44.9% for an undisclosed amount. They were competing with Lufthansa to secure a strategic alliance and gain access to lucrative TAP slots connecting its Lisbon hub with Brazil and Portuguese-speaking African nations and the United States.
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China's changing energy mix undermines global LNG growth
?China has been viewed as the main driver of future LNG demand by producers for years. This helped justify billions in investment infrastructure from?the U.S. Gulf Coast up to Qatar. China's appetite is waning for super-chilled fuel, even though producers are preparing a new wave of supply in the coming years. This could undermine the viability of future projects that rely on long-term needs of imports from Asia and Europe. The Iran 'war' has triggered a second global LNG supply crisis in four years, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine?in 2022. This is reinforcing China's push to prioritize domestic gas, pipeline gas, and renewable energy while reducing the share of imported LNG. Megan Jenkins, S&P analyst, said: "Even if the Persian Gulf LNG supply eventually returns to China, we expect increased energy security concerns there will lead to a more cautious approach towards LNG." She said that this would lead to efforts to increase energy independence, resulting in a lower LNG demand than we had anticipated before the war. JPMorgan S&P Global Energy, and Wood Mackenzie all reduced their estimates for China's growth in LNG demand between the early 2030s. They have done so by 14 to 22 million tons. The demand is expected to grow between 19 and 53 millions tons from 2025 until early 2030. Shell, the top LNG trader in the world, has released its latest outlook. It offers a variety of possible outcomes. The low-case scenario is that imports will peak at 120,000,000?tons (ton) by 2035. A high-case scenario would be near 150,000,000 tons by 2040. The 2024 outlook projected imports to peak around 2030-2035, at 146 millions tons. UPCOMING NEW CAPACITY Global producers face high stakes. The IEA predicts that by 2030 there will be around 217 millions tons of?export capacities, a 40% increase from the current levels. This is mainly due to expansions in Qatar and the U.S. Up to 10% of the new capacity could be impacted by the weaker outlook on China's LNG consumption. This may affect final investment decisions for new projects. Henning Gloystein is director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group. He said that China's rapid de-carbonization will "almost certainly" impact LNG FIDs and cause cancellations of certain projects, particularly those with long lead times and high costs. As many Asian and European countries are still LNG import-dependent, it is likely that most U.S. project will go ahead. According to Wood Mackenzie Research Director for Asia Pacific Gas and LNG, Huang Miaoru said that due to the U.S. China tariff dispute and Beijing's tax on U.S. LNG direct purchase agreements are unlikely between Chinese buyers, and U.S. developers. Chinese buyers will instead be expected to purchase LNG from portfolio players that source LNG from different projects. She said that "while?China will remain the dominant driver for Asian and global LNG through the mid-2030s," the commercial and geopolitical path to capture this demand has become significantly more complex for U.S. Project Developers. Venture Global, a U.S. exporter of LNG, said that it continues to see a strong commercial demand in Asia which is growing. Cheniere Energy declined to comment. QatarEnergy has not responded to a comment request. Alternatives to LNG China has many alternatives to LNG thanks to its years-long efforts to diversify and increase self-sufficiency. This helped it avoid the worst effects of the Iran War despite being the top energy importer in the world. The development of unconventional gas resources, such as shale and coalbed methane, has driven the growth in domestic gas production by an average 9.5% per year over the past 25 years. China also intensifies its energy relations with Russia by increasing pipeline gas imports. In 2027, the Far East pipeline will begin delivering gas. This will further reduce?incremental LNG consumption. Power of Siberia 2, a larger and more ambitious project, would be another major pipeline source. JPMorgan analysts wrote in an email that recent developments had, in their opinion, accelerated China’s acceptance of Power of Siberia 2. China is more motivated to reduce LNG imports through this route, as Iran has been exploring new ways to control the transit via Hormuz and monetize it. The continued expansion of coal-fired power capacity and the world's largest renewables buildout in China are reducing gas demand growth. Zhang Yaoyu, global head of LNG at PetroChina International and new energies, said that renewable energy is a "structural obstacle" to LNG usage. This was stated in February during a conference held in Doha. The levelized cost of solar and wind electricity has dropped dramatically. How do you compete? He said. According to Rystad, ICIS, and S&P, China's LNG exports will fall between 61 and 64 million tonnes this year. This is the second consecutive decline. Customs data show that China imported 68.4 millions tons of LNG last year, narrowly edging out Japan as the top LNG importer in the world. According to Rystad energy analyst Xiong Wei, the competition from local gas production and pipeline supply last year pushed down the price that China would buy LNG on the spot markets to $8-$9 per million British thermal units. This is a significant discount to the spot price of $25/mmBtu that was charged after Iran's attacks on the world's No. 2 LNG exporter, Qatar. Qatar is the world's No. 2 LNG exporter. Sinopec, a state-owned energy company, halted the expansion of its Tianjin import terminal in March, instead using 590 million yuan (4 billion yuan) to increase domestic gas production, according to a statement released in March. Analysts say that a surge in global LNG supplies could drive down prices and stimulate future demand in China where coal-to gas switching is expected to be the driving force behind future demand. Gloystein, of Eurasia, said Beijing would be encouraged by its success with renewable-fueled electrification. He also noted that Beijing has been stockpiling fuel to protect itself against supply disruptions. He said that the peak in China's gas and oil demand will come sooner than expected.
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Air France-KLM exceeds its quarterly profit forecasts but reduces its capacity forecasts
Air France-KLM reported Thursday a higher profit than expected for the second quarter, citing increased revenue from premium and long-haul?travel. The Franco-Dutch Group posted an adjusted operating profit for the second quarter of EUR484million ($552.5million), down from EUR736million in the same period the previous year, but higher than EUR327million projected by analysts polled on average by the company. Benjamin Smith, the CEO of the group, said that the company had delivered "strong commercial performance" on the back a constant demand for premium travel. This was particularly true on the Asian and North American market. The airline group is using its premium offerings and ticket price increases in order to maintain profits during a downturn. The Iran War has impacted the capacity of many global carriers. They are now rushing to take advantage of the lucrative summer travel season in order to avoid financial problems later in the year. Air France-KLM announced that it has lowered its annual capacity expectations. It now guides for a 1% decrease in short and mid haul, and an increase group of between 2% to 3%. This is the second reduction from an earlier forecast of a 3%-5% increase. AIR FRANCE-KLM BIDS FOR TAP STAKE The company has lowered its April fuel bill for 2026 from $8.9 billion to $8.9 bn, citing the positive impact of newer, more efficient aircraft and jet fuel hedging. Air France-KLM, with EUR6.8bn?in cash and EUR3.5bn in credit lines that were not yet drawn at the end June, could benefit from cheap consolidation opportunities?after the Middle East Conflict nearly halved global airline industry's 2026 profit projection and forced weaker carriers to restructuring or buyouts. The group made a binding offer on Wednesday for a 44.9% share in Portugal's TAP at an undisclosed cost, competing against Lufthansa to secure a strategic alliance with the airline and access to lucrative slots connecting its Lisbon hub with Brazil and Portuguese-speaking African nations as well as the United States.
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Bousso: The future of Mideast oil is bleak as Iran tightens its grip on Hormuz.
Energy markets are stuck in a limbo of uncertainty that is not easy to escape. Buyers are increasingly concerned about the reliability and security of Gulf supply, which is creating a new alarming norm for producers in the region. The energy sector in the Middle East is more vulnerable and weaker than ever before, five months after Israel and the United States launched their military attacks against Iran. Energy infrastructure is under attack, and shipping routes are becoming increasingly restricted. Importers are also avoiding supplies from the region which accounted for about a fifth in global oil -and liquefied natural gas -exports before war. The conflict has spread in recent weeks beyond the Strait of Hormuz, which was the main front of this war, to the Red Sea. Last week, Yemen's Houthi militia, which is backed by Iran and has a presence in Yemen, declared an embargo against Saudi exports. The attacks on oil tankers and other energy assets has severely hampered shipments out of Saudi Arabia's West Coast, which was a vital alternative route to Hormuz after it was closed earlier this year. The security situation has continued to deteriorate since the breakdown of the U.S./Iran interim ceasefire agreement on June 17th. After a short hiatus of a few days, the U.S. Military resumed strikes on Iranian targets in the area on Tuesday after Tehran and its militias in Yemen, Iraq, and Kuwait targeted oil tankers, energy infrastructure and two major refineries that had to be shut down. Once again, the result is a dramatic drop in Middle East exports. The combined exports of the Gulf and Saudi Arabia’s west coast fell this week to around 6,2 million barrels a day. This is less than half of the peak wartime exports of 13.4 millions barrels per day, which were reached in late June. It's also far below the 20 million barrels per day that used to leave the region prior to the conflict. What is most alarming is that the complex and opaque trading patterns, created by this conflict of stop-and-start, may be here to remain. AN ACT IN DEPRAVED DESPERATION The first question is whether Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf states are desperate to resume energy exports after months of conflict to replenish their state revenues. Many are willing to consider an idea that was almost unthinkable just a few weeks ago, namely giving Iran a role in managing the traffic through this critical waterway. Oman had presented Tehran with an idea backed by the Gulf, under which Iran could help manage?the Strait and collect voluntary fees for vessels that use it. Iran rejected the proposal and insisted that it should control the entire shipping channel for the inbound traffic as well as a part of the route outbound, according to a senior Iranian official. Washington has consistently rejected the idea that ships would have to pay tolls to cross the Strait. But military realities are narrowing the options. U.S. Air Strikes have failed to stop Tehran from disrupting shipping, and President Donald Trump seems reluctant to engage in a regional war. In these circumstances, it is becoming more likely that a compromise will be reached which gives Iran some authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran would see an agreement formalising Iran's influence on the world's largest energy chokepoint as a major victory and it could have far-reaching implications. RISK PREMIUM It is easy to see the immediate impact on finances. The cost of oil and gas exports from the Gulf would be increased by a toll system. However, the psychological impact would be more profound. Gulf energy has been a reliable source of energy for decades. This reputation allowed the producers to charge a premium price from Asian buyers. The war has shown that Iran is able to disrupt the most important trade route in the world using inexpensive means such as missiles and drones. The threat will remain even if diplomatic agreements are reached and shipping resumes. This sword is not cheap. Gulf exporters may be forced to offer discounts in order to keep customers, even after today's physical disruptions have been cleared. Already, signs are emerging that this will happen. Mangalore Refinery, India's state-owned refinery, issued a crude procurement tender this week that explicitly requested suppliers to avoid the Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz. In effect, this means that suppliers will have to continue using less efficient, more expensive routes, regardless of what happens in the next few months between the U.S.A. and Iran. According to buyers, traders, and industry executives, Asian and European importers are looking for lower prices and stronger supply guarantees. Insurance premiums that are higher, shipping costs that are more expensive and concerns about supply security will likely become the new cost of doing business. The energy market will become more opaque as a result of this new reality. The Middle East is 'drifting towards a new balance in which energy flows but always under the shadow of coercion. The immediate crisis may pass, but damage to the reputation of the region could be far more lasting. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Avolta announces higher first-half revenue as cost control boosts cash flow
Avolta, a travel retailer and food service operator, reported on Thursday a 3.7% increase in its organic first-half turnover. Tight cost management helped to generate cash despite the volatile geopolitical environment. The Swiss company that operates shops, cafes and restaurants in airports, cruise ships, seaports, and other tourist destinations worldwide reported a core turnover of 6.44 billion Swiss Francs ($7.90billion) for the first half, down from 6.61?francs an year ago. The company stated that organic growth would have increased by 5.2% if the Middle East conflict had been taken into account. Avolta's medium-term outlook was maintained, with the company citing temporary impacts from?the Middle East Conflict. "While near-term instability persists, Avolta CEO Xavier Rossinyol stated that the company continues to execute its medium-term strategy, taking the 'necessary steps to 'protect profitability and cash flow, while progressing with the ramp-up our?new operation." Avolta is a travel retailer formed by the combination of Dufry and Italy's Autogrill. It was renamed Avolta in 2023.
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French and Benelux stocks: Factors to watch
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or even individual stocks. Aeroports de Paris - The Paris airport operator ADP reported that the net income attributable to the first half nearly tripled, reaching?312 millions euros. It has lowered its estimate for the annual traffic growth of Paris Aeroport by 2026 from an earlier range of 1.5% to 2.5%. Now, it expects recurring EBITDA?of between?2.30 and 2.35 billion euro. AIRBUS: Airbus AIR.PA voiced increasing confidence in its critical jet delivery target and maintained other 2026 goals as it unveiled stronger-than-expected second-quarter results on Wednesday, lifted by commercial airliner output and gains in defence. Bloomberg News reported that AIR FRANCE KLM/Lufthansa has made binding offers to acquire minority stakes in Portugal’s TAP SA. BIC: French industrial group BIC announced a first-half adjusted group net income of?114 millions euros compared to the company's consensus of 100million euros. It increased its outlook for 2026, forecasting modest growth organically, an adjusted operating ratio of only?over 14% and stable net cash flow generation. Carmila: European shopping centre operator Carmila increased its earnings-per share guidance for 2026 to?1.87 euro from?1.84 euros. It expects EPS to grow by 3.3% in this year. Elis, a French laundry services company, announced a first-half revenue figure of 2,46 billion euros. The group also confirmed its outlook for 2026. FDJ 'United: French gaming operators FDJ United announced a first-half recurring EBITDA figure of 404 millions euros. They also confirmed their target of a recurring EBITDA'margin' of between 23% and 24% by?2026. The group expects its revenue to drop by a single-digit percentage in this year. L'Oreal : The French cosmetics company L'Oreal announced a net profit of 3,96 billion euros for the first half, excluding nonrecurring items. This is an increase of 4.7% compared to a year ago. Financial Times also reported that the chief of Gucci Beauty plans to triple sales. Renault: French automaker Renault announced a net profit, group share of 705 millions euros for the first half, which was below the consensus estimate of 770 million euros. The automaker confirmed its 2026 forecast, saying that price pressure is expected to continue in Europe 'throughout the rest of the year. SES: Satellite connectivity company SES announced that it will provide multi-orbit services for more than 60 Airbus or Embraer aircraft in Latin America. Tikehau Capital, a France-based investment manager, reported an increase of 5% in assets under management to 53.5 billion Euros at the end the first half of this year. Two people familiar with the plant's operations said that TotalEnergies, TTEF.PA, completed repairs on its crude distillation units and restarted them at its Port Arthur, Texas refinery. Vicat, a French cement manufacturer, reported sales of 2,044 billion euros in the first half and upgraded its outlook for 2026. The company now expects EBITDA and like-forlike sales to grow by 7%-9%, as opposed to the previous guidance of slight growth. Vinci: The infrastructure and concessions group Vinci announced a first-half profit per share of 3,70 euros, and confirmed their 2026 guidance. The group declared an interim dividend of 1.10 euro per share for the 2026. Pan-European ?market data: European Equities speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX ?index...................................... Top 10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top 25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones ............... Wall Street Report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ London report ........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... Survey of global bourse outlook ......... European Asset Allocation........................ News in a glance Top News ............. Equities.............. Main Oil Report ........... Main currency report .....
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Businesses affected by the Kumamoto earthquake in Japan
The following companies have temporarily suspended their operations in Kumamoto, Japan and the surrounding prefectures. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck on Tuesday that killed at least 17 people. AEON KYUSHU 17?of Aeon Kyushu’s 40 stores located in Kumamoto Prefecture temporarily suspended?operations. Its Kumamoto shopping mall is severely damaged following a post-quake blast, and rescuers are working around the clock to find people who may be trapped or missing. AISIN Aisin has halted operations at its Kumamoto City plant, which is one of Japan's biggest automotive parts suppliers. It is also a member of the Toyota Group. It is assessing damage to the?facilities and working to restore operation. EBARA CORP. The pump manufacturer halted its operations at a plant in Nankan that?manufactures equipment for semiconductor production. HONDA MOTOR, Japan's second largest automaker, is suspending its Kumamoto Motorcycle Factory operations until Friday in order to allow repairs to parts of the factory that were damaged by the quake. MELCO MOBILITY SYSTEMS MELCO Mobility Solutions, a Mitsubishi Electric Group company, said that operations at the Kumamoto site are?suspended' while safety inspections take place. NIPPONPAPER INDUSTRIES A chimney collapsed at the company's Yatsushiro Mill, disrupting production and leaving workers injured or missing. NISSAN MOTOR Nissan Motor Kyushu in Fukuoka Prefecture and Nissan Shatai Kyushu in Fukuoka Prefecture will suspend part of their production this week because the delays in parts supply caused by the earthquake. RENESAS ELECTRONICS has suspended operations in its Kawajiri Plant in Kumamoto City, and Nishiki Plant in Nishiki Town. The semiconductor manufacturer started inspecting clean-room facilities on Wednesday morning in order to assess damage to equipment and buildings. SONY SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING The operations at Sony Semiconductor Manufacturing Kumamoto Technology Centre have been suspended since Wednesday, according to?its parent company, Sony Group Corp.'s Sony Semiconductor Solutions. It said that it was evaluating the damage to 'the site's buildings?and production lines. TOKAI CARBON, a manufacturer of graphite electrodes and carbon products in the world's largest scale, has halted production at its factory in Kumamoto. The equipment and facilities will be thoroughly checked. TOKYO ELECTRON This semiconductor equipment manufacturer halted production at two Kumamoto sites. The company is planning to resume full production at the beginning of next week. TOYOTA?MOTOR Operations will be suspended at Toyota Motor Kyushu’s Miyata?Kanda?and Kokura plants located in Fukuoka Prefecture from the second to second shifts on Friday. This is due to safety, logistics and the condition of the suppliers.
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Halliburton and Australia's Beetaloo Energy partner on a gas project linked to AI data centres
Beetaloo Energy Australia announced on Thursday that it had signed a non-binding contract with oilfield services firm?Halliburton in order to help advance a proposal for a gas-to power and data center development in Australia's Northern Territory. Halliburton is providing technical expertise for Beetaloo?Digital to?assess gas resources and develop them. The project is focused on supplying?power?to hyperscale data centers and AI infrastructure. It's centered on a 185-hectare?site at?Weddell, near Darwin. Halliburton, according to Beetaloo Energy, could provide expertise in the areas of field development, drilling and project execution, as well as scalable gas-fired energy generation. Beetaloo Energy's Chief Executive,?Alex Underwood, described the agreement in terms of a step towards building a group of specialists across power generation, data centres, pipelines, and gas supply. The company stated that the project was based on the gas resources in the Beetaloo Basin. It is still subject to concept studies, partner agreements, funding and regulatory approvals. (Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
WestJet Flight Attendants issue 72-hour notice of strike over unpaid work
Flight attendants from Canada's WestJet Airlines gave a 72-hour strike notice on Thursday if an agreement was not made with the country's second largest carrier.
Canadian Union of Public Employees posted on Facebook that if negotiations fail to resolve a dispute about unpaid work, cabin?crew? at the Calgary-based carrier owned by Onex Corp. can strike as soon as August 2 at 12:01 am Mountain Time (06:00 GMT), if they are unable to reach an agreement.
The union that represents WestJet's flight attendants is calling for the crew to be paid between the time they arrive and when they leave, which is currently not the case.
The carrier has been experiencing labor tensions since last August, when flight attendants on rival Air Canada went on a four-day walkout that stranded a half million passengers.
This strike was part of a larger effort by flight attendants across Canada and the U.S., to change a compensation system that pays cabin crew primarily when an aircraft moves. The Canadian government intervened in order to stop the strike. However, Air Canada flight attendants later refused to comply with it.
WestJet issued a 72-hour lockout notice following the strike notification, according to the CUPE.
The union said that the strike notice did not mean that bargaining was over. They asked the Canadian federal government not to intervene.
WestJet didn't immediately respond to a comment request.
CUPE, the union that represents Air Canada and WestJet flight attendants, is also asking for a higher compensation package. They claim younger members are struggling to pay their bills in high-cost cities such as Toronto. (Reporting by Allison Lampert, Montreal; Anusha Shah in Bengalur Editing by Ronojoy Mazumdar & Mrigank Dahniwala).
(source: Reuters)