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Winter is on its way: AirBaltic's debt woes presage a tough season for smaller airlines

The aviation industry is bracing itself for a difficult winter after Latvian airline airBaltic filed Chapter 11 procedures?on Monday. Jet fuel prices are continuing to rise due to the Iran War.

AirBaltic, a U.S. competitor, filed for bankruptcy in May, after seeking protection prior to the war.

The margins of airlines are relatively small compared to those in other industries, making them more vulnerable to geopolitical instability, especially in winter, when bookings and travel drop, and they lose the money they made in summer.

SAVING RETURNS

The price of jet fuel is expected to remain high for as long as the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. This will put additional pressure on smaller carriers.

Aviation analyst John Strickland said that smaller niche players were most at risk.

The fuel price has doubled since the beginning of the war in late February. However, there are some advantages for larger budget airlines.

Last month, Wizz 'Air reported that its operating losses had increased in the first three months. It also said it expected revenue per seat in the current third to continue to fall after cutting fares in order to attract more passengers. In August, they reached an 'all-time high of 8.7 million passengers.

Wizz Air, supported by strong liquidity and a disciplined hedge programme, continues to grow, invest and serve more customers.

James Halstead of Aviation Strategy said that Wizz Air's stock market listing puts it in a stronger position than state-owned carriers.

"They're growing fast, which means they're sacrificing current returns for future stability. He said they have a good operating model, a great brand, and support.

AirAsia, a budget airline in Southeast Asia, is looking to raise new capital following a restructuring and consistent losses, while Air Transat, a Canadian carrier, has been struggling with rising jet fuel prices.

AirAsia stated that it did not see any problems with the sustainability of its business and saw a strong demand at the underlying level.

AirAsia stated in a press release that it is committed to maintaining stable operations and business continuity across its markets. We continue to see a strong demand for our services across the network. "We also work closely with our stakeholder to manage our financial requirements and operational needs."

Air Transat didn't immediately respond to our request for a comment.

More routes for bigger players

Executives and investors have said that a tough market may force some smaller national carriers to cede their routes to bigger, more well-funded rivals. Analysts say that budget airlines like Ryanair and Wizz air could pose a threat to them. These airlines have taken over secondary airports in an effort to grow and are now offering better prices for consumers.

Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi told reporters in August that the airline was eager to take over routes from Romanian state-backed carrier TAROM.

TAROM didn't immediately respond to a comment request.

The more difficult market conditions may accelerate the long-term trend in Europe of consolidation. This could push some smaller carriers to larger?groups, such as British Airways' owner IAG, Lufthansa, and Air France-KLM.

Norse Atlantic has started in July a process of?sale' or?merger. It did not respond immediately to a comment request. Since years, the state-owned Polish carrier LOT is suspected of being a target for consolidation. LOT did respond immediately to a comment request.

AirBaltic said that it was 'looking for another strategic investors, but no one has yet publicly expressed interest.

Lufthansa has a 10% stake but says it doesn't intend to increase that stake. It refused to comment on its possible next steps in light of airBaltic's Chapter 11 proceedings.

Analysts said that airBaltic could still survive and recover from Chapter 11 proceedings, unlike Spirit.

Strickland cited the Scandinavian competitor SAS as an example of how to turn things around.

(source: Reuters)