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Poland is no longer on alert as sirens and jets are scrambled in response to Russia's attack on western Ukraine
After Russian airstrikes against Ukraine, which came within a few miles of the NATO member, Polish and Ukrainian officials confirmed on Thursday that sirens were sounded, military planes scrambled, and two airports suspended flights temporarily. The Polish Army said that there was no violation of Polish airspace and that the military aircraft have?finished operations'. After a temporary?closure, airports in Rzeszow reopened and Lublin also reopened. Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Ukraine, said at a press conference that "a massive attack on western Ukraine -- very close to the Polish Border -- just ended." "A petrol-station was probably hit again, and our aircraft were scrambled." Lieutenant Colonel Jacek Goryszewski, a private broadcaster TVN24, reported that a drone crashed or was shot down about 4 kilometers from the Polish border. An official from Ukraine said that explosions were heard on the Ukrainian side several kilometres away from the border. A Russian drone struck a passenger train on Sunday just two kilometers from the Ukraine-Polish border. Residents of two eastern regions in Poland were warned to find a safe place because of the risk of aerial attacks. Local media reported sirens. State 'news channel TVP info' showed footage of children being evacuated from a school located in Lublin, a city in eastern Poland.
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Apollo is exploring options to sell Energos' floating LNG infrastructure, according to sources
People familiar with the situation said that Apollo Global's?Management? is exploring strategic options for Energos Infrastructure. The deal could be worth more than $3 billion. Sources said that the investment giant had been in talks with potential bidders over the past few weeks, expressing its willingness to sell?Energos either fully or partially. XRG is the international arm of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. It has made an offer to take a 50% stake in Energos. Sources cautioned against any deal with Energos and spoke under condition of anonymity in order to discuss private discussions. Apollo and XRG declined comment. Energos declined to comment on a request for a statement. The floating LNG infrastructure allows for the importation of natural gas for power generation and commercial purposes without having to build large-scale, onshore facilities that can be expensive, take many years to construct and require a lot of land. Energos, based in Stamford Connecticut, operates 13 floating LNG ships, including nine that allow the storage and regasification LNG, two storage unit, and two LNG carriers. According to its website, the assets of Energos are deployed worldwide?under long term commercial agreements, including Brazil, Egypt Indonesia, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Apollo and New Fortress Energy formed Energos in 2022. The money manager then bought New Fortress’ 20% stake in 2024. XRG is eager to 'invest in the LNG -industry, as part of a larger push to acquire assets such as natural gas and chemicals outside the United Arab Emirates. According to its website, it aims to "build an integrated global LNG and gas business" with a capacity of up to 25 mtpa by 2035. It has also bought minority stakes in three blocks of land in Argentina that are linked to a LNG project.
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Maguire: Super El Nino could throw Europe's gas forecasts out of course
The record-strong El Nino this winter bodes very well for the potential of wind power in Europe and could also help to limit the amount gas required by utilities during Europe's peak heating season. El Nino, which is measured in sea temperatures of the central Pacific Ocean can have an impact on much of the globe. It can cause stronger winds in Europe and temperatures above normal in winter. The combination of warmer than usual weather and more sustained winds through early 2027 could mean that the natural gas requirements for European utilities may be constrained this winter. This could make moot concerns about Europe's low gas stocks, and dash hopes of a surge in LNG imports from European traders by the end of the year. SUPERSIZED EL NINO UNDERWAY El Nino, or a periodic increase in sea surface temperature in the Eastern Pacific due to weaker trade winds, occurs every two to seven years. El Nino occurs every 2-7 years, can last for up to 12 month and has a significant impact on rainfall patterns and temperatures in all regions. El Nino this year "may be stronger" than any since we began monitoring. "It's literally off the charts," said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo at a press conference in Geneva earlier this month. El Nino is already responsible for recent record heatwaves and droughts across Europe, but it may still have a significant impact on the region's climate patterns. According to the meteorological data service Nebbo, El Nino's peak readings are not expected until between November and January, so winter weather patterns in Europe will be affected. El Nino winters are known to cause a negative pressure over the North Atlantic. Gerard Castro wrote in a report that this steers the jetstream, directing westerlies directly to the UK, North Sea, Ireland and Scandinavia. WINDS FAVOURABLE If the weather pattern is as predicted, wind farms in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom -- which account for the majority of Europe's total wind capacity -- will see an increase in production in 2026. It would be a welcome departure from the recent sub-par wind production trends caused by extended periods of below-normal winds at turbine level. This forced Europe's utilities, to increase generation from other sources. The term Dunkelflaute, which describes periods of darkness and low solar or wind energy, was coined in Germany to describe these weak wind?bouts. Due to the lack of sustained winds in wind farm corridors, the peaks in German Wind Electricity Production?in 2024 and 2025 as well as so far in 2026 were far below previous calendar year peaks. Ember reports that these shortfalls in wind power generation occurred despite the fact that Germany's total capacity of wind farms has increased steadily to an all-time high of 82 gigawatts by mid-2026. According to LSEG's generation data, there are some signs that Germany is beginning to see a turnaround in wind power generation. In August, the output was 30% higher than the average of the previous two years. Germany's wind farm generated approximately 390,189 Megawatt Hours of Electricity per Hour (MWh/h), compared to 298,000 MWh/h in August last year, and 277,075MWh/h in August 2024. GAS SQUEEZE If the wind speeds increase as predicted as autumn approaches, then Germany's wind farm generation levels should continue to rise, with system-wide implications for utilities. According to Ember, wind farms account for 28% of the total electricity supplied by utilities in Germany. The next-largest electricity source is coal (around 20%), while natural gas ranks third with an annual production share of roughly 16 percent. In Germany and Northern Europe, as a whole, the higher wind energy generation tends towards reducing coal and gas production. It is possible that during periods of high wind output, utilities will reduce their gas consumption more than they do coal. Reduced gas consumption in Germany or elsewhere may limit the drawdown of regional gas stocks, as well as limit interest in buying new gas supplies via liquefied natural gases. GETTING WARMER Strong El Ninos are known to cause milder temperatures in the winter, as well as causing breezier weather across Europe's biggest wind belts. Strong El Ninos tend to favor what is called a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. This is when high pressure brings mild, moist air?over continental Europe. LSEG's forecasters predict that these conditions will continue into 2027. LSEG's weather analysts published a recent outlook for winter 2026-27. They noted that temperatures are expected to be warmer in continental Europe, the Black Sea Region and Scandinavia. Cold risks will only affect north/central Russia and Scandinavia. The forecasts are subject to change and the current projections of a strengthening El Nino could be a false alarm and lead to a colder and drier winter than expected. Most major forecasters predict a mild, breezy winter for Europe. This could boost wind farm production far beyond recent stunted levels. It may also trigger sustained reductions in gas consumption throughout the region. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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After the bankruptcy of AirBaltic, Ryanair wants to double its traffic in the Baltic region
Ryanair announced on Thursday that it "plans" to double the number of passengers in the Baltic Region over the next five-year period, hoping to capitalize on airBaltic’s bankruptcy filing and retrenchment. The plans of Europe's biggest airline in terms of passenger numbers comes days after the Latvian airline became the first European carrier to declare bankruptcy as a result the fallout from Iran conflict. Ryanair has announced that it will provide 11 million seats per year in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania by the end of 2031, and base 16 aircraft there, up from 7. Jason McGuinness, Chief Commercial Officer at Ryanair, said that the proposal was even more crucial after airBaltic announced it would shrink its fleet by one-third. AirBaltic announced in August that it would reduce its fleet from 54 to 36 aircraft before the end of 2026, and aim for 40 aircraft or less by 2031. This is a reduction from an earlier goal of 100 aircraft. Bigger Players Swoop on Routes Investors and airline executives have warned that the US-Iran conflict could cause a cost crisis, forcing smaller national carriers to give up routes to their larger rivals with better capitalisation, such as low-cost airlines like Ryanair. Ryanair's expansion is part of a broader strategy that aims to?increase passenger traffic from 208m in the year to end-March 2026 to 300m by 2034, while taking delivery of 300 Boeing 737 MAX-10 aircraft starting 2027. After a reduction of airport fees, the Irish airline announced that it would soon add winter flights to 10 Riga routes including Milan and Alicante. It will reduce winter capacity in Lithuania and Estonia by?25% due to?increases of airport charges in those countries and redeploy this capacity to "more competive countries" like Slovakia, Poland and Italy.
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Three people, including two Britons, are killed in a plane crash in Switzerland
The British Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office announced on Thursday that two Britons were among the three people killed when a small aircraft crashed into a Swiss mountainside this week. The Swiss police confirmed that the Cirrus light aircraft, the SR22T, crashed on Tuesday in the Fluhalp region near the spa town of Leukerbad located in the southwest canton?of Valais. Valais Police said that the plane departed from Lugano, made a stopover at Sion Airport before continuing on to Buochs Airfield in Canton Nidwalden. The plane crashed at around 4 pm (1400 GMT), for unknown reasons. Police said that emergency services and rescue specialists were rushed to scene, but found all three passengers dead. The office stated that it was in contact with local authorities and providing support to two families of British nationals who had died in Switzerland. Police did not provide any information about the third party.
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Maguire: The real shipping squeeze could still be ahead of us, as the Panama Canal stresses show.
A shipowner paid reportedly more than $5,000,000 for a single Panama Canal transit slot. It's possible that this is just the beginning of a historic rise in shipping costs. The vessel was a liquefied gas carrier (LPG) operated by South Korea's SK Gas. It was not a toll but a premium for securing passage through one the world's major maritime choke points. The auction surpassed previous?reported offers of approximately $4 million, and is the latest example of how geopolitical disturbances have distorted shipping markets. The bigger story is what happens next, since?energy transportation is only a part of the equation. CONTAINER CRUSH Container shipping will be the next major test of global logistics. The northern hemisphere's retail cycle generates a surge in demand for freight every year as retailers prepare to move their goods before Black Friday and Christmas. Container shipping is typically busiest from August to October, as importers rush to stock up before the holidays. Data from LSEG show that the average volume of containers arriving at Long Beach in California, one of the biggest container ports in the United States, is around 15% higher during August to October compared with the monthly average. Shipping analysts and logistic companies expect the volume flows of this year to follow a trend similar to last year, even though certain cargoes have been imported earlier in the year due geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainty. In a normal-year, the shipping system could absorb this rush. This year is different. PURCHASED PASSAGE The recent increase in Panama Canal auctions is primarily due to disruptions around Strait of Hormuz. These have changed energy trade patterns, and forced more tankers, LPG carrier and other vessels towards alternative routes. The Panama Canal Authority reported increased traffic, stronger demand for reservations, and an increase in the use of its transit-auction system as shipowners sought to avoid risks elsewhere. According to LSEG, the average number of vessels passing through the canal per day was close to 44 from March to May. This is a rise of 17% in the average number of transits through the Panama Canal after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began in late February. Energy cargoes are becoming an increasingly important factor in volume, as importers of crude, refined fuels, and liquefied gas have all rerouted some cargoes to respond to the Middle East tanker traffic disruptions. This has led to a dramatic increase in the auction premiums. Panama Canal Authority data shows that before the Middle East disruptions intensified the bids for auction slots were typically between $135,000 and $140,000. In April and May of this year, the average premium had reportedly increased to between $385,000 and $425,000. Several vessels paid?more than $1 million and a few transactions exceeded $3 millions. Next came the $4,000,000?bids. The benchmark is now $5 million. CAPACITY CRIMPED Two unrelated forces are already exerting pressure on the Panama Canal. First, the rerouting of cargo due to disruptions in the Middle East is causing a rise in demand. Second, there is the possibility of a lower transit capacity due to water shortages caused by El Nino. The Canal Authority has announced that it will reduce the number of vessels transiting each day to between 32 and 34 in September. This is a double squeeze as both sides are affected by the rising demand and falling supply. The Xeneta Shipping Index, and Gorto Freight, report that the cost to ship a container to the U.S. from the Far East has increased by nearly four times compared to a year earlier. Gorto reports that the current rates for a 40 foot equivalent container shipped from China to the U.S. West Coast is around $7,848, according to Xeneta. However, the service to the U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coasts cost closer to $10,000. The Panama Canal is a major factor in many Asia-to U.S. East Coast service. Container carriers may find that as holiday cargo volumes increase, they are forced to compete more directly with energy producers for limited canal capacity. The competition will reward those who are willing to pay premiums. All others may have to wait longer, pay higher operating costs, or adjust their routes. A broader market mechanism is at work. Ship disruptions don't just change the route of vessels. The way fleets are utilized is affected. If vessels are forced to wait for longer transits of canals, travel longer routes, or change trades more frequently, they will spend longer completing their voyages. This reduces the number of ships available for the market and every shipping channel will feel the effects of the ongoing disruptions in Middle East vessel movements, even though they may be thousands of miles apart. The Panama Canal is more than 8,500 miles away from the Gulf of Mexico, but it's one of the best indicators of how Middle East disruptions are affecting the global economy. Analysts have historically viewed major chokepoints in the world separately: the Strait of Hormuz (or Strait of Hormuz), the Bab el-Mandeb (or Bab el-Mandeb), the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal. The shipping market of today suggests that they should be seen as a part of?a unified interconnected system. Traffic is diverted to another corridor when there are problems in one. Costs are increased by constraints in a second route. The effects eventually spread throughout the entire network. SIGNS OF STRESS The $5 million Panama Transit is not merely a curiosity. It is a warning. The record bid was made before the peak of Christmas shipping rush had fully played out. The shipping pressures could increase if container demand increases in the next few weeks, while Panama's limited capacity and Middle East disruptions continue. It's not the $5 million that a gas carrier paid to cross Panama. The bill may have been a preview of the chaos that occurs when holiday shopping collides with an already overstretched maritime network due to war, rerouting, and a lack of transit capacity. These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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European shares increase as oil prices decline, BoE decision is in focus
The risk sentiment was boosted on Thursday by a drop in?oil and a pause?in the global debt selloff following the?U.S. The Federal Reserve announced a much-anticipated interest rate increase. Most regional stock exchanges followed suit. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.5% by 830 GMT to 640.21. Germany's DAX rose 0.5%. Travel stocks led the way, rising 0.8% on the back of a decline in oil prices. Airlines like Ryanair and Lufthansa also saw gains, increasing by 1.1% and 1,2% respectively. Shares of BMW, Renault, and Volkswagen each rose around 1%. Brent crude futures remain above $100, but crude prices continued to decline for a second session after reports that Saudi Arabia offered extra crude cargoes via Oman. The energy sector in Europe grew by 0.4%, despite the fall in crude oil prices. Investors take comfort in slightly lower crude oil prices. "They're looking forward to the?Bank of England holding rates at current levels later today," said Susannah Streeter. Chief investment strategist at?Wealth Club. Investors are focused on any signs of a policy tightening. The European Central Bank increased interest rates last week for the second time in this year. The UK's blue chip FTSE 100 rose 0.6% on the back of HSBC, and healthcare stocks like AstraZeneca. The final reading for the euro zone shows that inflation in August was at a rate of 3.2%, which is revised down from a preliminary rate of 3.3%. The yield on long-term Treasury bonds remained below 5% after the U.S. Fed increased interest rates by a quarter percentage point as expected in its first rate hike since 2023. Wealth Club's Streeter stated that "investors took some comfort" from the Fed's firm stand in the face Donald Trump's loud demands for lower interest rates. This adds credibility to the Fed. Berentzen, among other stocks, jumped 19.4% when the German spirits manufacturer confirmed that it was in negotiations with New Orleans-based Sazerac regarding a possible takeover bid. After JP Morgan upgraded Sodexo's stock to "overweight", the shares of the French caterer gained 4.4%. Bilfinger's biggest intraday percentage fall?on records, down 19.5% after the German industrial service group lowered their 2026 outlook for a second time. Raiffeisen Bank International dropped 8.1% after Grizzly Research revealed a short position in the Austrian lender.
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Railways say that Russia has damaged a bridge crucial to grain exports in southern Ukraine.
Ukrzaliznytsia, the Ukrainian state railway operator, said 'on Thursday that Russia had damaged a bridge in Odesa, affecting Ukraine's ability to transport grain into its Danube river ports. The company didn't say how badly damaged the bridge was or when it happened. Russia has been attacking it almost weekly since the beginning of the war. After Russian attacks, 90% of Ukraine's exports were handled by Black Sea?ports. Ukraine operates three river port?on the Danube. Cargo can be delivered either via the damaged bridge or through Moldova, which has limited transit capacity. Ukrzaliznytsia reports that around 3,000 grain wagons currently heading to the Danube port for export are currently on their way. They would have to travel?26 days without the bridge in order to reach the ports. The situation is difficult. We are working to ?restore the Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi bridge," a company official said, without ?providing further ?details. If we do not reopen our bridge, the minimum waiting period for wagons is 26 days. Ukrzaliznytsia reported that since the start of the month 118,000 metric tonnes of grain had been transported to the Danube ports. Another 346,200 tonnes of exports were transported via land border crossings to Eastern European countries.
EasyJet Portugal cabin staff votes for pre-Christmas strikes in October
EasyJet’s?cabin staff in Portugal voted Thursday to go on strike between 'October - 2-6 and then again from December 19-23 to protest poor working standards. This move is likely to cause hundreds of flights to be grounded at Portuguese airports, according to a spokesperson for SNPVAC.
According to union estimates, the 'first strike alone' is expected to cause EasyJet to cancel a total of?500 flights scheduled to depart and arrive at Lisbon, Porto, and Faro airports. This excludes?any flights with minimum service that have yet to be determined by authorities.
According to the spokesperson of the Portuguese leading cabin crew union, working conditions in Portugal "continue to deteriorate" despite warnings by the union which the airline allegedly failed to address.
The spokesperson stated that the complaints were centered around unstable rosters and breaches of the agreement with the company, as well as?discriminatory treatments compared to pilots?, failures in operational planning?,?and?pressures to work overtime? to cover staff shortages.
This second'stoppage' could have a 'greater impact on the operations of the low-cost carrier, since it coincides with the busy Christmas travel season, when airlines operate fuller schedules.
EasyJet Portugal officials were not available to comment immediately.
(source: Reuters)