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Maguire: The EV export boom in China is beginning to affect the gasoline market.
Years ago, predictions of the energy shift followed a familiar plot: Electric vehicles would gradually reduce gasoline demand in Europe before spreading elsewhere. Recent trade data suggests that the process is already accelerating in a wider swath across the global economy. Comparing the year-to date gasoline imports with Chinese EV exports shows a striking overlap across several major economies. Australia, Brazil and South Korea have all increased their imports of Chinese EVs in the past year, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Canada, United States, Nigeria, and Japan reduced their gasoline imports. No single ?dataset proves causation. Imports of gasoline are affected by refinery operations and inventories as well as economic growth, government policy, and government policies. When a'same' pattern appears in multiple regions, and at different income levels, this is less a coincidence and more an early sign of structural change. THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISplacement? It is possible that the global trade in gasoline is starting to reflect China's surge in EV exports. Years ago, EV adoption was treated as a separate story. They seem to be more and more connected. In 2026, the countries listed here collectively reduced gasoline imports by about a third compared to last year's same-month figures. They also increased imports of Chinese electric vehicles to record levels. Fuel traders will need to watch Chinese vehicle exports just as closely as refinery failures if this relationship continues. AUSTRALIA LEADS IN THE WAY Australia is perhaps the most obvious example. Imports of Chinese EVs increased by 200%, or $2.5 billion. Chinese brands have gained rapid market share because they offer vehicles at prices that Western competitors cannot match. The economics of electrification is increasingly favorable for consumers who face high living costs and unpredictable fuel prices. ASIA PRESSURE BUILDINGS South Korea and Japan are both automotive powerhouses. South Korea reduced its gasoline imports to around 0.4 million tonnes or 44%, while increasing Chinese EV imports to more than $1 billion. Japan has cut its gasoline imports to 0.3 million metric tons or 11% while EV sales in China have risen by 90%. Chinese automakers may have a stronger global competitive position than they realize if they can establish themselves in two of the most advanced automotive markets. EVEN OIL PRODUCERS ARE JOINING THE PARTICIPATION The United Arab Emirates is perhaps the most important case symbolically. In the first half of 2018, the country saw a 61% drop in gasoline imports, to 1.43 million tonnes, while Chinese EV imports reached new heights, totaling more than $1.4billion. The conflict in the Middle East has impacted oil and product flow around the region this year, including to the UAE. The steep rise in EV sales is still important because traditionally, oil-producing countries have been viewed by many as laggards when it comes to vehicle electrification. EVs are becoming more popular due to falling prices and improved technology. If EVs are able to gain traction in an economy based on hydrocarbons they can do so almost anywhere. NORTH AMERICA'S QUIET SHIFT Canada and the United States are also part of the same pattern. Canada has increased its purchases of electric vehicles from China while reducing gasoline imports. The United States cut its gasoline imports in half compared to 2025's first half and imported more than $1 billion worth of electric vehicles from China despite trade barriers. In both markets, refining dynamics play a significant role. Every electric vehicle sold replaces an upcoming gasoline vehicle, reducing fuel consumption growth that refiners used to take for granted. THE EMERGING MARKET TEST Pakistan is the largest market in the world. The conventional wisdom held that electric vehicle adoption would be concentrated in wealthy countries because they were too expensive for developing economies. Chinese manufacturers challenge this assumption. Pakistan has decreased total gasoline imports this year, while Chinese EV imports have increased by an astounding 549% on a scale of nearly $500 million. Nigeria followed a similar trend, as the Dangote refinery's increased gasoline production helped to reduce gasoline imports more than half from last year, while EV imports more than doubled, to nearly $72 million. Nigeria has also partnered with South Korea’s development arm in order to build a EV manufacturing facility that will manufacture both cars and charging equipment?in Nigeria. If low-cost EVs gain traction in emerging markets that are fuel-sensitive, future expectations of gasoline demand growth could need to be revised. Why this Matters These countries are not only important because of their numbers, but also for their diversity. Together, they cover North America, East Asia and South Asia. They also include the Middle East, Africa, Oceania, Africa, and Oceania. They include oil exporters and importers, wealthy economies, middle-income countries and emerging markets. Histoically, EV adoption was dismissed as a largely European phenomena supported by subsidies and regulations. This argument is getting harder to "sustain". Consumers seem to be responding more to a simple economic calculus: gasoline is still expensive and volatile while Chinese EVs become cheaper and more readily available. The Takeaway The demand for gasoline is not going to fall. Internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the global road for many years. Major shifts are rarely the result of dramatic headlines. They begin with subtle shifts in behavior, which are first evident in trade data and market flows. One of the early signs may be the overlap between declining gasoline imports and increasing Chinese EV sales across different economies. Fuel efficiency and slower economic growth may not be the greatest threat to long-term gasoline demand. There may be an increasing number of Chinese electric vehicles that are affordable. These are the opinions of a columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Families of victims of massive Lebanon port explosion still waiting for justice six years after the blast
Lebanon marked Tuesday the sixth anniversary of a deadly blast in Beirut port. Victims?and Lebanese authorities expressed a renewed, but cautious hope for justice to be served. It was believed that hundreds of tons ammonium-nitrate, stored at the port, were responsible for the?blast of August 4, 2020. This explosion killed over 200 people and destroyed large areas of the capital. Years of political interference stymied an investigation into which officials were 'negligent' and the chemical substances they contained. Former ministers and judicial officials would raise legal challenges against the investigating judges, effectively paralysing the investigation. "In normal nations, we would be done by now and we'd already be in a new phase of our life and we'd get to grieve," Paul Naggear said, whose daughter Alexandra, nicknamed Lexou, was killed in this blast. Lexou's death has no value if there is no justice. A turning point was reached in 2025 when Prime Minister Nawaf Salim and President Joseph Aoun took office. They immediately pledged accountability for the explosion. In late March 2026, Judge Tarek bitar resumed his investigation. He submitted an investigative document to the Public Prosecutor's Office. An official from the Lebanese judiciary who was briefed on the investigation said that Bitar's Report included allegations against 70 individuals in connection with the explosion. To protect the judicial system, this official was unable to share any further details. The official stated that Bitar would prepare a public indictment after receiving a response from a public prosecutor. This will include names of the accused and initiate the trial process. On Tuesday morning, the?Justice minister of Lebanon Adel Nassar placed a wreath on a memorial in the port. The state and judiciary let this case go all the way to the end. "This is a must - for the relatives of the victims, the victims themselves, all those affected and the Lebanese," Nassar said. "We can't say that there is a judicial system (in Lebanon) when we remain silent on a tragedy as large as the Beirut Port blast."
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Bousso: The Mideast war both helps and hurts BP's CEO's turnaround plans
BP has received a windfall from the Middle East conflict, thanks to higher gas and oil prices. This will help Meg O'Neill in her efforts to stabilize the ship. The Iran War has made the future of energy less predictable and has complicated BP's attempts to chart a course for the long term. BP is today 'on a much firmer footing than it was in February when it reduced planned capital expenditure for 2026 due to growing concerns about looming oil and?gas surpluses that would impact on prices and earnings. This narrative was flipped on its head when the Iran War began on February 28, 2003. As a result of the sudden increase in energy prices and the closure of the Strait, buyers were forced to scramble for other cargoes. BP, along with its Big Oil competitors, was among the biggest beneficiaries. The British oil giant reported a second-quarter profit worth $5.7 billion – the highest since 2022 – thanks to high oil and gas costs, exceptional refining margins, and a robust performance by its trading division. Cash flow surge helped BP reduce its net debt from $22.5 billion to $22.5 billion in the last quarter. This allowed it to advance by an additional year until the end of 2026 to achieve its goal of reducing net debt between $14 billion and $18 billion. O'Neill's stronger financial position is a much more comfortable one than what she inherited in April when she became CEO of BP. She was given the mandate to stabilize the company after a turbulent period marked by leadership scandals and strategic drift, as well as a failed attempt to transform it into a renewable-energy champion. Once investors have reaped the benefits of the Iran war, they will naturally ask, "What next?" It is not obvious what the answer to this question is. RIVALS STRONGER, BUT LAGGING O'Neill has already made it clear that he intends to make rapid changes to the company's strategic direction. During her first four-month tenure, BP announced a number of job cuts. It also restructured its leadership, dismantled the low-carbon division, and restructured corporate structure to resemble a traditional upstream/downstream organisation. BP also accelerated the asset sales. Last week, BP made a symbolic move by selling its North Sea?business. The company was removing itself from a historic oil region that has defined BP's history. It is still unclear whether investors fully support O'Neill's plan. BP shares have dropped around 3% in the last few months, underperforming competitors such as Shell and TotalEnergies. The market's caution is partly a response to BP’s strategic drift during the first half of the last decade which resulted in approximately $50 billion of write-offs. However, it also reflects this year’s extraordinary volatility in the energy markets. Investors try to differentiate between a wartime windfall, and a long-term improvement in the company's prospects. WHAT'S NEXT, MEG? BP is likely to seek to clarify this issue when it announces its updated long term targets in the next few months. It is almost certain that they will reinforce the direction O’Neill has already established, focusing on exploration of oil and gas, operational performance and debt reduction, as well as shareholder returns. The very conflict that BP used to boost its finances could have also complicated BP's future. The Iran War exposed the vulnerability of a system of energy that is heavily dependent on only a few supply routes and production regions. The governments and companies who have suffered most, especially those in Europe, Asia and the Middle East, are now reevaluating their energy security strategies, which includes their dependence on fossil fuels imported. Some will likely accelerate investments in domestic energy sources - from renewables to nuclear power and coal - while pushing forward with the electrification and automation of transport, industry, and heating. Some may choose to increase their domestic hydrocarbon production or to build up strategic stocks to protect themselves from future supply shocks. The assumptions underlying future energy demand have become harder to predict. The conflict has also raised questions about the future investment of the Middle East. Even after the crisis subsides the security of the Strait of Hormuz on a long-term basis will be in doubt, underlining the risks of concentration of future production growth into a region which remains susceptible to geopolitical turmoil. This presents a special challenge to BP. In 2025, the Middle East will account for approximately 411,000 barrels equivalent to?per-day or 18% of BP's total production. The Middle East is becoming a more important location for new investments. BP acquired a 10% stake, in June, in two major projects in the United Arab Emirates -?the Bab gas cap project? and the Ruwais 'LNG development. The company is also renovating the massive Kirkuk oilfield located in northern Iraq. EXPENSIVE CHOICES Oil companies respond to the uncertainty of oil prices by concentrating their capital on their most reliable and lowest-cost assets. To maintain production, and even grow it, BP must invest billions of dollar in new large projects such as the Bumerangue giant discovery off the coast of?Brazil. They will also need to continue to progress developments in the Gulf of Mexico Namibia, and the Middle East. It is a challenge that post-war conditions make investment decisions more costly. Producers' scramble to increase output has already increased demand for drilling equipment, services, materials and equipment across the industry. All oil companies are affected by these pressures. BP is more vulnerable than others because of years of strategic turmoil and a slowdown on upstream investments. The Middle East turmoil is giving BP what it needs: higher?profits and lower debt, as well as breathing space for a new CEO to reshape the company. Ironically, the same crisis also has muddied market expectations. O'Neill's first challenge is to repair BP's financials, but the bigger challenge will be deciding how to invest BP's billions of dollars in its next generation. It may be more difficult to make the right decisions in an energy system that has been reshaped by geopolitical risks, wars, and shifting demands. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks. (Ron Bousso)
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Sources say that a dry bulk ship was struck near the Strait of Hormuz and its crew abandoned ship.
The Liberia flagged dry bulk ship Minoan Pioneer was struck by an unknown projectile Tuesday while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. The crew abandoned the vessel, and one seafarer went missing. The projectile is said to have struck the engine room while a fire broke out in the accommodation area. The crew is fighting a?fire, and needs assistance. Meanwhile, the third engineer has been reported as'missing. The vessel's Greece based operator, Modion Maritime Management, did not respond immediately to a request for comment. One of the maritime safety sources confirmed that a'salvage operation' had been launched and a tugboat equipped with firefighting gear was on the way. The majority of the crew of the ship were safely in the?lifeboat. According to the UN's shipping agency, the last ship damaged in this area was a liquefied gas tanker that was hit off the coast of Oman on 31 July. Iran has stopped most of the?traffic via Hormuz, while Washington continues to blockade Iranian shipping and ports. This disrupts a corridor which?normally transports about a fifth of global oil shipments and liquefied gas. (Reporting and editing by Sharon Singleton, Ros Russell and Renee Maltezou)
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Singapore's marine fuel prices are higher than other regional countries due to a tighter supply
Trade sources and analysts said that the supply of low-sulphur fuel oil in Singapore has been tightened due to reduced production from refineries, and falling sweet crude imports. This is driving up fuel costs for'shippers' at the world’s largest bunkering facility. Data showed that spot premiums for fuel oil with a maximum 0.5% sulfur content (VLSFO), also known as fuel oil without sulphur, surpassed $58 per ton in Singapore on Tuesday. This was a record high of over four months. Trade sources reported that bunker fuel premiums in Singapore were well above $100 per tonne this week due to the need for timely delivery. The U.S. - Iran war has led to a rise in marine fuel prices worldwide. Emril Jamil is a senior researcher at Kpler. He said that the current price strength will likely continue into September, as low-sulphur blend components and heavy sweet crude arrivals are limited. Marine fuels can be blended to meet specific specifications. Some heavy-sweet crudes are imported from countries such as Sudan, Brazil and Australia. Kpler data shows that the total amount of heavy low-sulphur oil arriving in Singapore and Malaysia in July was 475,000 tons, down from 663,00 tons in June. Arrivals in August are estimated to be 428,000 tons. Jamil said that, "given the current anxiety about crude oil supply, more barrels will be absorbed by the refinery instead of being blended with low-sulfur fuel." Trade sources and analysts reported that refineries prioritized the production of other transportation fuels which have higher margins. Sparta Commodities' senior oil market analyst, June Goh said that refineries would have more difficulty producing VLSFO. The crude shortage is real, as we move into September processing. Medium crude resupply options in Asia are becoming limited. SINGAPORE PRICES ABOVE OTHER PORTS IN ASIAN In recent weeks, Singapore's marine fuel prices have risen more than other Asian ports due to the tighter supply of VLSFO. Trade sources claim that for prompt dates, ships refueling with VLSFO at Singapore ports cost more than China ports such as Zhoushan? and Shanghai. Sources added that VLSFO sold at other regional ports, such as Hong Kong, South Korea, and Tokyo, was also cheaper than Singapore in recent times. The bunker buyer from a shipping firm said that while ships are unlikely to divert to China to take bunkers at a lower price, they will attempt to "take more volume" in Zhoushan when already in the region. Fuel trading manager predicts that the overall demand for marine fuel will soften, as shipowners become more cautious in their purchases due to high premiums throughout Asia ports.
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Source: Iran wants to control the inbound and outbound traffic of Hormuz.
A senior Iranian source said that Iran wants to control inbound shipping and have visibility of outbound traffic, as well as the ability to intervene, if needed, under a new plan being discussed by Oman for reopening the strategic waterway. Sources involved in the 'talks' said that this was "the general idea being discussed", and specified that an outbound lane will follow a route between Iran and Oman. Exit clearance would be granted by Oman only after notifying Iran. Source: "Tehran will not change its position," source adds. Kazem Gharibabadi, the Iranian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, said that Tehran rejected an Omani proposal to divide transit routes equally between both countries. He added that such a plan would not address Tehran's concerns about security until regional stability was achieved. The U.S. and Israeli 'war against Iran' has been stalled by the inability to control the narrow waterway that connects the Gulf of Mexico and the Indian Ocean. This is the primary route for a fifth or more of the world's oil supplies and other essential goods. Since the end of February, the?war? has been largely blocked. (Reporting and writing by Parisa hafezi; Editing by Louise Heavens, Sharon Singleton, and Dubai newsroom)
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China sets mandatory safety standards for autonomous vehicles
The 'China Industry Ministry' announced on Tuesday that the country has issued mandatory safety standards for vehicles equipped with highly automated or conditional driving systems. According to the new rules that will take effect July 1, 2027 an automated 'driving system' must reach a level of safety that is at least equal to a human driver who is qualified and attentive to the driving task. According to a statement from the ministry, the system must not pose unreasonable risks to road users or vehicle occupants. The standard does not apply to automated parking systems and only applies to vehicles with Level 3 or Level 4 automated driving system. Level '3 systems require that a driver be available to take over when requested. While Level '4 systems can do all driving tasks without human intervention within specified operating conditions.
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Maguire: The EV export boom in China is beginning to affect the gasoline market.
Years ago, predictions of the energy shift followed a familiar plot: Electric vehicles would gradually reduce gasoline demand in Europe before spreading elsewhere. Recent trade data suggests that the process is already accelerating in a much wider swath across the global economy. Comparing the year-to date gasoline imports with Chinese EV exports shows a striking overlap across several major economies. Australia, Brazil and South Korea have all increased their imports of Chinese EVs in the past year, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Canada, United States, Nigeria, and Japan reduced their gasoline imports. No single ?dataset proves causation. Imports of gasoline are affected by refinery operations and inventories as well as economic growth, government policy, and government policies. When a'same' pattern appears in multiple regions, and at different income levels, this is less a coincidence and more an early sign of structural change. WHAT ARE THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISplacement? It is possible that the global trade in gasoline is starting to reflect China's surge in EV exports. Years ago, EV adoption was treated as a separate story. They seem to be more and more connected. In 2026, the countries listed here collectively reduced gasoline imports by about a third compared to last year's same-month figures. They also increased imports of Chinese electric vehicles to record levels. Fuel traders will need to watch Chinese vehicle exports just as closely as refinery failures if this relationship continues. AUSTRALIA LEADS IN THE WAY Australia is perhaps the most obvious example. Imports of Chinese EVs grew by 200%, or $2.5 billion. Chinese brands have gained rapid market share because they offer vehicles at prices that Western competitors cannot match. The economics of electrification is increasingly favorable for consumers who face high living costs and unpredictable fuel prices. ASIA PRESSURE BUILDINGS South Korea and Japan are both automotive powerhouses. South Korea reduced its gasoline imports to around 0.4 million tonnes or 44%, while increasing Chinese EV imports to more than $1 billion. Japan has cut its gasoline imports to 0.3 million metric tons or 11% while registering a 90% increase in the purchase of Chinese electric vehicles. Chinese automakers may have a stronger global competitive position than they realize if they can establish themselves in two of the most advanced automotive markets. EVEN OIL PRODUCERS ARE JOINING THE PARTICIPATION The United Arab Emirates is perhaps the most important case symbolically. China's electric vehicle imports reached new heights, with a total of $1.4 billion, as it posted multi-year lows in gasoline imports. The conflict in the Middle East has hampered oil and product flow around the region this year, including to the UAE. The steep rise in EV sales is still important because traditionally, oil-producing countries have been viewed by many as laggards when it comes to vehicle electrification. EVs are becoming more popular due to falling prices and improved technology. If EVs are able to gain ground in an economic system based on hydrocarbons, then they can do so almost anywhere. NORTH AMERICA'S QUIET SHIFT Canada and the United States are also part of the same pattern. Canada has increased its purchases of electric vehicles from China while reducing gasoline imports. The United States cut its gasoline imports in half compared to 2025's first half and imported more than $1 billion worth of electric vehicles from China despite trade barriers. In both markets, refining dynamics play a significant role. Every electric vehicle sold replaces an upcoming gasoline vehicle, reducing fuel consumption growth that refiners used to take for granted. THE EMERGING MARKET TEST Pakistan is the largest market in the world. The conventional wisdom held that electric vehicle adoption would be concentrated in wealthy countries because they were too expensive for developing economies. Chinese manufacturers challenge this assumption. Pakistan has decreased total gasoline imports this year, while Chinese EV imports have increased by an astounding 549% on a scale of nearly $500 million. Nigeria followed a similar trend, as the Dangote refinery's increased gasoline production helped to reduce gasoline imports more than half compared to a year earlier, while EV imports more than doubled, reaching close to $72million. Nigeria has also partnered with South Korea’s development arm in order to build a EV manufacturing facility that will manufacture both cars and charging equipment?in Nigeria. If low-cost EVs gain traction in emerging markets that are fuel-sensitive, future expectations of gasoline demand growth could need to be revised. Why this Matters These countries are not only important because of their numbers, but also for their diversity. Together, they cover North America, East Asia and South Asia. They also include the Middle East, Africa, Oceania, Africa, and Oceania. They include oil exporters, oil importers, wealthy economies, middle-income countries and emerging markets. Histoically, EV adoption was dismissed as a largely European phenomena supported by subsidies and regulations. This argument is getting harder to "sustain". Consumers seem to be responding more to a simple economic calculus: gasoline is still expensive and volatile while Chinese EVs become cheaper and more readily available. The Takeaway The demand for gasoline is not going to fall. Internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the global road for many years. Major shifts are rarely the result of dramatic headlines. They begin with subtle shifts in behavior, which are first evident in trade data and market flows. One of the early signs may be the overlap between declining gasoline imports and increasing Chinese EV sales across many different economies. Fuel efficiency and slower economic growth may not be the greatest threat to long-term gasoline demand. There may be an increasing number of Chinese electric vehicles that are affordable. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)
Exporters claim that a strike has halted the activity of Argentina's grain ports.
The CIARA-CEC export and processing chamber said that a'strike' by maritime workers has prevented'ships' from 'entering' or 'leaving' Argentina's grain ports. This is causing'significant disruption' to the country's major grain supplier.
Gustavo Idigoras (president of CIARA CEC), which represents grain processors and exporters, said that the strike 'has paralyzed all grain ports across the country.
The strike is in response to a government decree deregulating the services of river navigation. The union that represents river captains and pilots has said the changes may reduce the demand for Argentinean river pilots, and could put their jobs at risk.
The?union announced that it was preparing a legal challenge to?the decree.
Argentina is the largest exporter of?soybean oil and meal, as well as major supplier of corn?and?wheat, with the majority of shipments passing through the ports on the Parana River.
It was not immediately known the duration of the strike or the number of vessels that were affected. Maximilian Heath, Gabriel Araujo (Editing and Reporting)
(source: Reuters)