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Andy Home: The ROI-Sulfur squeeze puts more pressure on the Indonesian nickel industry
The soaring sulfur prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to affect?Indonesia’s huge nickel sector. The Gulf is a major input to the world's biggest producer of battery metal. The sulfur squeeze is a new addition to the Indonesian government’s mix of measures to control its nickel production sector. The explosive growth of the country's production flooded the world market, and prices fell?throughout?2024-2025. This month, the prospect of lower Indonesian production and a corresponding change in market balance lifted London Metal Exchange nickel to its highest levels since two years. WAR AND POLITICS The Iran War has significantly reduced the flow of sulfur out of the Gulf. This accounts for about a quarter or the global supply. 75 % of Indonesia's sulfur imports come from the region. Sulfuric acid is produced from sulfur to be used by nickel processing plants that use high-pressure acid leach. The plants produce a mixed hydroxide precipitation, an intermediate product that is used in the battery industry. The HPAL plants in Indonesia are growing rapidly. The 450,000 metric tons of production last year represented more than 10% of the global production. Macquarie Bank estimates that another 100,000 tons of capacity will be added this year. It was about to ignite. HPAL operators have already been forced to reduce production due to the sulfur crunch. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt halted the operation of half its capacity. Even existing operators are struggling to maintain their run-rates. The'sulfurous fallout' of the war has compounded impact on tighter mine production quotas, and changes in the government's Minimum Selling Price for Nickel Ore. Macquarie Bank says that the quotas for this year of 260 to 270 millions tons are far below the smelter's requirements, but on paper, they're enough to wipe out any expected surplus. HPAL producers will see their costs increase by over $3,000 per ton due to the new ore pricing formula. The bank estimates that break-even prices have risen to $18,000 per tonne when combined with rising sulfur prices. TIPPING POINT Analysts are beginning to adjust their expectations about how much Indonesia will produce in this year, and what it means for pricing. Last month, the International Nickel Study Group predicted that after three years of a massive surplus in supply, there will be a global deficit by 2026. The 32,000-ton forecast shortfall is small compared to the 283,000-ton excess calculated last year. It is a significant revision to the Group's forecast in October of a large 261,000-ton excess. The Group lowered its demand growth forecast for 2026 from 6.2% to just 4.2%. Global production is forecast to fall by 4.3%, as Indonesian growth slows or reverses. The forecasts released on April 22 do not explicitly mention the impact of a possible sulfur squeeze. Few expected the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed so long. RECOVERY Nickel prices are responding to a combination of increasing costs and possible reduced production in the country that accounts for 60% global supply. LME nickel for three months broke through its previous range of below $16,000 per tonne in December, as the market began to focus on Indonesia's planned reduction in production quotas. Last week it reached a two-year high at $20,000 per tonne and this week is hovering around $19,000, an increase of 14.5% from the beginning of 2026. Over the same period, investment funds have built up long positions. The collective bets on higher prices amount to 35,750 contracts or?215,000 tonnes. This is still above the 2022 peak, but below the January peak. It is basically a wager that Indonesia will stop flooding the market. If it was?just an issue of government policy that could be a risky move. The mining quotas will be reviewed at the mid-year and may even be increased significantly. Both the quotas as well as the new formula for ore pricing have been met with considerable opposition. Chinese operators who dominate the sector have complained formally to Jakarta and warned that future investment is at risk. It is possible to tweak the policy further. Jakarta has no control, however, over the global sulfur availability. This is the biggest threat to the dominant nickel producer in the world. Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Black Sea CPC blend oil exports will fall to 1,45 million bpd, according to sources
Three industry sources say that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium plans to export around 1.45 million barrels per day of CPC Blend crude oil in June, down from 1.8 million barrels per day expected in May, due to planned maintenance at Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan oilfield. Calculations show that June loadings will be 17% lower daily than May. This is a significant drop from the multi-month peak of May. CPC does NOT comment on operational shipment statistics. Sources claim that maintenance on the Kashagan oil field, with a capacity of 0.4 million barrels per day, will begin in early June. It may continue for more than 30 days and reduce Kazakhstan's total oil production and exports. Sources?said that the volume of CPC blend supply in June will also depend on the amount of Russian crude fed into pipeline. Sources claim that Novatek, a Russian company, has been forced by drone attacks to redirect gas condensate into the CPC after the processing plant at Ust-Luga which processes light crude was attacked. After Russia stopped transiting?of Kazakh crude oil to Germany via Druzhba from May 1, additional volumes could reach the CPC. Sources?said that the Kazakh crude volumes will be redirected via other routes to the port of Ust-Luga, and to CPC. According to data from? data. High outright prices, firm CPC blend premiums and weak Asian demand have caused an overhang. They added that shipments to 'Asia' dropped sharply from April in May. CPC shareholders include:?Russia, Kazakhstan, U.S. Chevron, and a number of private companies.
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Airline cancellations in response to Middle East conflict
Middle Eastern carriers increased capacity following the Iran War, and airlines outside the Gulf have rerouted flights between Europe and Asia to avoid major hubs within the region. The latest flight information is listed below alphabetically: AEGEAN AIRLINES On May 21, Greece's largest airline will resume its flights from Heraklion to Tel Aviv, as well as Rhodes and Larnaca. Thessaloniki-Tel Aviv flights are cancelled through June 26. Flights to Beirut resumed on May 12, and flights to Riyadh, Amman and Amman will begin on May 21. Flights from Dubai to Erbil, Baghdad and Dubai have been cancelled until June 29. AEROFLOT From June 1, the Russian flag carrier will resume flights to United Arab Emirates. AIRBALTIC AirBaltic, a Latvian airline, has announced that flights to Tel Aviv are cancelled until the 28th of June. Dubai flights are cancelled until 24 October. AIR CANADA The Canadian carrier has canceled flights to Tel Aviv, Dubai and Abu Dhabi until September 7. AIR EUROPA Spanish Airlines has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv till May 31. AIR FRANCE-KLM Air France has suspended flights to Riyadh, Riyadh and Beirut until May 27, and Tel Aviv and Dubai until May 19 KLM suspends flights to Riyadh Dammam, and Dubai until 28 June. CATHAY PACIFIC Hong Kong Airlines has suspended its flights to Dubai, Riyadh and cargo services to Dubai, Riyadh and Dubai until May 31, and the Hong Kong airline will continue to operate all scheduled flights beyond June. The airline plans to continue all scheduled flights after June. The U.S. carrier extended the suspension of service for the Atlanta-Tel Aviv routes through November 30, and plans to resume New York JFK-to-Tel Aviv flights starting September 6. The airline said that the launch of its Boston to Tel Aviv route was delayed until further notice. EL AL ISRAEL AIRLINES All flights to Dubai have been cancelled until 31 May. FINNAIR The Finnish carrier has cancelled all flights to Doha until July 2 and continues to avoid the airspaces of Iraq, Iran Syria, and Israel. The airline will not resume Dubai flights until October. British Airways, owned by IAG, will reduce flights to the Middle East once services resume. Jeddah is no longer a destination and it will be permanently removed. From July 1, it plans to reduce the number of flights to Dubai, Doha, and Tel Aviv from two daily flights to just one. Riyadh's two daily flights will be reduced to one starting in mid-May. The changes will be in effect until the end of summer, which is October 24. One Dubai service will resume on October 16. Iberia Express, the Spanish low-cost carrier of IAG, has cancelled all flights to Tel Aviv until May 31. JAPAN AIRLINES Japan Airlines has suspended its scheduled Tokyo-Doha and Doha-Tokyo flight until June 30, and Doha-Tokyo until July 1. The Polish airline has suspended flights from Tel Aviv to June 12. The airline also cancelled flights from March 31 until June 27 to Beirut and Riyadh. LOT will operate its winter route from Dubai to Riyadh in October. LUFTHANSA GROUP Austrian Airlines plans to restart flights to Tel Aviv on June 1. SWISS, ITA Airways, and Lufthansa plan to resume flights in July. Brussels Airlines has already suspended its operations until October 24, Lufthansa SWISS and ITA Airlines continue to suspend flights from Dubai until September 13. Flights to Abu Dhabi, Amman Beirut Dammam Riyadh Erbil Muscat Tehran have been suspended by SWISS, Austrian Airlines, and Brussels Airlines until October 24. Eurowings, a low-cost airline, has suspended its flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut until July 9, Erbil and Dubai until June 22, and Amman and Abu Dhabi until October 24. ITA Airways has also?extended its suspension of flights to Riyadh till June 30. MALAYSIA AIRLINES From June 2, the Malaysian airline will resume limited service to Doha. NORWEGIAN AIR Low-cost carrier has delayed the launch of Tel Aviv and Beirut services until June 15. PEGASUS Pegasus Airlines, Turkey's national airline, has cancelled all flights to Iran, Iraq Kuwait, Bahrain, Dammam Riyadh Abu Dhabi Sharjah until June 1. QANTAS Australia's national carrier has added flights to Rome, Paris and London to meet the increased demand for European destinations. The number of flights to Paris is increasing from three to five return flights per week. Perth-Singapore will also increase from a daily service to 10 weekly. A new schedule will be implemented gradually for flights starting in mid-April. It will run through late July. QATAR AIRWAYS The Qatari airline announced that it will resume operations in Abu Dhabi. It announced that it will expand its international flight network from June 16 to more than 150 destinations. ROYAL MAROC Moroccan airline said that flights to Doha and Dubai were cancelled until the end of June. SINGAPORE Airlines In response to increased demand, the carrier has extended the suspension of Singapore-Dubai flights until August 2. It will also add services on Singapore-London Gatwick as well as Singapore-Melbourne from late March to October 24. TURKISH AIRLINES SunExpress, Turkish Airlines joint venture with Lufthansa has cancelled flights until June 30, including to Dubai, Bahrain and Erbil. WIZZ AIR Flights to Tel Aviv from Europe mainland will resume on 28 May, but flights to Dubai Abu Dhabi and Amman remain suspended until the middle of September. All flights to Medina are suspended permanently. (Compiled by Josephine Mason and Jamie Freed. Elviira Lioma, Tiago Branao, Agnieszka Oenska, Bernadette HOG, BoleslawLASOCKI, Romolo TOSIANI. Rod Nickel, Lisa Shumaker Jonathan Ananda Matt Scuffham Alexander Smith and Susan Fenton edited the book.
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Air India's annual loss exceeds $2 billion, according to shareholder results
According to the annual report of 'Air 'India's' 25% shareholder Singapore Airlines, Air 'India's' record loss was more than $2 billion for its fiscal year '2025-26'. India's second largest airline had been impacted by disruptions caused by the Iran War and Pakistan's ban against Indian carriers flying in its airspace. Singapore Airlines, who owns 25% of 'Air India', revealed in its annual report released on Thursday that the Indian group had suffered losses totaling 3.56 billion Singapore dollars or $2.80billion at current exchange rates for the year ending March. Singapore Airlines didn't specify the exchange rate that it used to calculate its loss. Air India had been expected to report a loss of $2.12 Billion. Air India, a company that is not listed on the Indian stock exchange and hasn't yet reported its earnings to local regulators in India, declined comment. The company's loss for 2024-25 was?39.75bn Indian rupees (about $415.09 million). This loss is a'major reversal' for the airline. It has had to reduce scores of international flights in recent months and this will affect its turnaround plans. Air India's flight reductions are a boon to foreign carriers, including Lufthansa and Cathay Pacific, according to a report on Thursday. (Reporting and editing by Joe Bavier and Kirsten Donovan; Abhijith Ganapavaram)
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Iraq requested financial assistance from IMF in response to the Iran war, a source close to IMF claims
Iraqi officials have approached the IMF to secure financial assistance as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. The'source' said that initial conversations were held last month during the spring meetings in Washington of the IMF and World Bank. Discussions are ongoing about the amount of funding Iraq will need, as well as the structure and terms of any loan. The Middle East has been rocked by the war that began February 28th with the massive U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign on Iran. This led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's oil exports, which represent almost all of its government revenue, have been severely affected by the war. The critical waterway that carried about one-fifth the world's crude oils has now been closed. (Reporting and editing by Louise Heavens, Andrea Shalal)
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UKMTO: Vessel intercepted off UAE's Fujairah heading towards Iranian waters
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a vessel was 'boarded on Thursday by unauthorised personnel while it was at a berth northeast of the 'United Arab Emirates - port?of Fujairah, and heading towards Iranian waters. Two maritime security sources confirmed that the vessel was the Honduras flagged Hui Chuan Fishery Research Vessel. Iran has seized at least two more vessels since the U.S. launched its strikes on Iran in February. According to the British Navy agency?UKMTO, the incident occurred 38 nautical miles (70km) northeast of Fujairah. The report was received from a vessel's security officer. Vanguard, a British maritime risk management group, said that it was reported on Thursday at 0545 GMT. Vanguard reported: "The company's security officer reported to Vanguard that Iranian personnel had taken the vessel while it was at anchor." The vessel was reportedly headed 'for Iranian territorial waters,' it stated. It also said that the contact had been lost and that the vessel?no more transmitted its position via the Automated Identification -System (AIS). The operator of the vessel, listed in shipping databases as Marshall Islands based SG Navigation could not be reached for comment. According to data from the MarineTraffic platform, the vessel was last spotted in the Gulf of Oman on May 12th, right within Iran's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). A?EEZ can extend up to 38 km (24 miles) from the coast of a country. Reporting by Ahmed Elimam and Jonathan Saul; Editing by Sharon Singleton and Aidan Lewis
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Kuwaiti tanker fire extinguished after Iranian attack on Dubai waters
Authorities confirmed that the fire was put out on a 'fully loaded Kuwaiti crude tanker' which had been damaged by an Iranian attack in Dubai Port's docking area 'on Monday'. The strike also caused damage to the vessel's hull, raising concerns of a potential oil spill. This apparent attack on the Al Salmi is the latest in a series of attacks on merchant ships by explosive drones and missiles in the Gulf of Mexico and Strait of Hormuz, since the U.S. & Israel attacked Iran on 28 February. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), announcing early on Tuesday, said that the Al Salmi tanker was damaged and caught fire after an Iranian attack on the vessel while it was anchored in Dubai port in United Arab Emirates. Kuwaiti state-run news agency KUNA reported that the vessel warned of a potential oil spillage in nearby waters. Dubai authorities confirmed that maritime firefighting crews successfully extinguished the fire which was caused by a drone strike and continue to assess the situation. They also said no injuries were reported, and that all 24 crew members are safe. Brent crude futures rose over 2% to $115.17 a barrel in the early Asian hours following the news of the attack in Dubai. However, they retreated after the Wall Street Journal reported President Donald Trump was willing to end this war even if he had the Strait of Hormuz closed. Brent oil is expected to see a 59% increase in March. This will be its biggest monthly gain ever due to the Middle East war. KPC is assessing the damage to the tanker. According to Lloyd's List Intelligence, it is the parent company for Al Salmi's commercial operator and registered owner. According to data provided by?Lloyd's and TankerTrackers, the tanker carried 2 million barrels from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Lloyd's stated that the tanker was bound for Qingdao in China. It was not possible to reach the Iranian officials for a comment immediately. Experts in maritime security said that earlier on Monday, a Greek owned container ship located off the coasts of Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura, reported two separate incidents when projectiles struck water near the vessel. At 1352 GMT, a representative of the Liberian flagged?Express Rome reported that two unknown projectiles were splashing in the water near the container vessel approximately 22 nautical miles (40.7 km northeast of Ras Tanura). Vanguard, a British maritime risk management group, said that the incidents happened within an hour of one another and that the crew were safe. Vanguard reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had previously claimed to have attacked Express Rome on 11 March. Express Rome's operator did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The oil tanker and the projectiles were not attacked by any group.
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Fars reports that Iran allows Chinese vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
According to a source, Iran has allowed some Chinese vessels to transit the Strait o f 'Hormuz after an agreement was reached over Iranian management protocols for the waterway. The Fars report was released at the same time that U.S. president Donald Trump, on a visit of state to China, and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed that the Strait?Hormuz should be opened for free energy flow. According to a source at?Fars News, the move was made in response to requests from China's ambassador and foreign minister. Tehran agreed to allow the passage of several Chinese?ships as part of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Iran has severely restricted the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following the'start of U.S. and Israeli strikes' on 28 February. The crisis has been prolonged by the U.S. blocking Iranian ports a few weeks after an agreement on a ceasefire in early April. This waterway is where one-fifth global oil and gas transits. The move was not immediately apparent, given that Iran had already stated during the war, that neutral vessels, including those with a Chinese connection, were allowed to 'transit the Strait, as long as they coordinated with Iranian forces. Ship tracking data showed that a Chinese supertanker, carrying 2,000,000 barrels of Iraqi oil, sailed through the Strait o'Hormuz Wednesday after being stranded for over two months in the Gulf due to the U.S. - Iran war. (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson; Dubai Newsroom)
F2i confirms it will retain control of 2i Aeroporti following CDP stake deal
Italian investment fund F2i announced 'on Thursday that it will keep control of airport operator 2i Aeroporti, after state-backed investor CDP Equity signed a term sheet for a minority share. This was in response to media reports that this deal could result in a takeover.
F2i stated that CDP Equity has'signed non-binding contracts for the potential purchase of an 8.9% stake in 2i Aeroporti which manages six airports, including Milan, Naples, and Turin. The deal will not change the control of the company.
The Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore had reported earlier Thursday that CDP Equity's acquisition of a minor stake would be the first step towards obtaining?control over 2i Aeroporti.
The fund issued a statement in which it said, "F2i rejects the report."
Asterion, a Spanish company, owns 49% of 2i Aeroporti while F2i owns 51%.
* F2i announced late Wednesday that?CDP Equity will acquire a 0.9% stake in F2i, and an 8% from Asterion
* According to the agreement, F2i would retain a 50.1% absolute majority in 2i Airporti (Reporting Anna Uras and editing by Alvise Armenlini and Matt Scuffham).
(source: Reuters)