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Maguire: The next big thing in climate adaptation isn't going to be solar panels, but asphalt.

The latest heatwave in Europe was a painful reminder that climate change is not just about cutting emissions. Temperatures in western Europe soared to over 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). Roads buckled, rails warped, traffic signals malfunctioned, and transport operators implemented speed limits or cancelled services.

According to the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, transport infrastructure in the region is more exposed to thermal stress and deformation of rails as heat extremes increase.

Since years, Europe’s infrastructure spending has been dominated?decarbonisation. Investors have focused on windmills, solar panels and electric vehicles.

A?different story? of infrastructure is emerging as it becomes apparent that Europe was built largely for a climate which no longer exists.

It may be that the next major investment cycle is less about generating cleaner energy, and more about making sure trains run, roads are intact, and electricity networks work during summer heatwaves.

The European Environment Agency identified the protection of infrastructure against heat-related risk as one of Europe's urgent adaptation priority.

The problem is most evident in the road surface.

Asphalt binders that are conventionally used soften in heat and cause cracking, rutting, and deformation. Many of Northern Europe's transportation infrastructures were designed to withstand temperatures that are no longer relevant with the fall in heat records.

This indicates an increase in demand for high-performance paving materials such as polymer-modified asphalt and other high performance paving materials that are already used in hotter climates.

TotalEnergies' Styrelf polymer-modified binder range is specifically marketed for its resistance to rutting and thermal cracking, as well as heavy climate stress.

These products are used on highways, airport runways and racing circuits.

Shell is also a potential winner. The company is still one of the largest bitumen suppliers in the world and has increased its range of advanced binder designed to increase pavement life span and withstand harsher operating conditions.

Investment opportunities do not always lie in the development of new technologies. The investment opportunity may be as simple as selling Northern Europe road materials that are already standard in Southern Europe, the Middle East and Asia.

The RAIL RESILIENCE BOOM

Railways are a greater challenge.

The European Union's ambitions to reduce carbon emissions are heavily dependent on the shift of passengers and goods onto rail. Rail systems are sensitive to temperature extremes, because steel expands when heated.

Heatwaves in recent weeks have caused service disruptions in multiple countries. Operators are dealing with deformation of rails, melting sealants and signalling problems, as well as speed restrictions.

UNECE warns that such disruptions will become more common if adaptation measures are not taken.

This creates new opportunities for rail infrastructure specialists.

The German company?Vossloh provides concrete sleepers and rail fastenings for various climate zones around the world.

The use of concrete sleepers and stronger fastening systems helps maintain track stability in periods of thermal expansion.

Pandrol's fastening system, which is used in rail networks all over the world, will also benefit from efforts made to increase track resilience and reduce maintenance requirements under climate conditions that are becoming more volatile.

voestalpine Rail Systems, Austria, also stands to benefit from increased spending on rail components and turnouts.

The climate adaptation strategy of Europe for transport could require that significant sections be rebuilt to standards previously associated with regions much hotter.

The Unsung Materials Story

Investors who are looking for adaptable winners should also pay attention to cement, specialty chemicals, and construction materials.

Thermal expansion and accelerated wear are the main effects of heat stress on bridges, tunnels, and other civil structures.

Companies like?Heidelberg Materials and Sika can be attractive in this area because they provide advanced concretes, specialty add-ins, sealants and reinforcement systems, as well as other products which extend the life of assets under harsh conditions.

It is possible that the adaptation trade will end up being as much a story of materials as it is an engineering story.

Climate adaptation, just as the energy shift created a demand for lithium and copper, could also create a sustained?demand for high-performance concrete and advanced steel products, and construction chemicals.

DON'T FORGET THE GRID

Power sector is another story.

Electricity is becoming increasingly important for transport systems. All transport systems, including railways, signalling, charging infrastructure, and urban transit networks, require power networks that can operate in extreme temperatures.

This should encourage the demand for higher-performance cables and transmission systems with upgraded conductors.

Prysmian, Nexans and other major European grid expansion projects are all already being supplied by these companies. The Nordic cable manufacturer NKT will benefit from the network reinforcement and underground wiring programmes. French grid operator RTE recently announced plans to lay 45,000 km of transmission and distribution cables by 2030.

IS THIS THE NEXT SUPER-CYCLE IN INFRASTRUCTURE? The decarbonisation market continues to 'overshadow the adaptation market, which could be shortsighted.

If rail services are not available during heatwaves, every euro spent on electrifying transportation is less valuable. If transmission systems are unable to cope with extreme weather, then every investment in clean energy loses value.

Europe's policymakers spent more than two decades trying to figure out how to reduce emissions.

It may be more important to ask how society can continue to function in a world that is warmer.

Heat-resistant asphalt, advanced elastomeric lubricants and expansion joints are unlikely to generate the same excitement as solar and battery stocks.

When temperatures exceed 40C, they can be just as important.

These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)