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Maguire: The next big thing in climate adaptation isn't going to be solar panels, but asphalt.

The latest heatwave in Europe was a painful reminder that climate change is not just about cutting emissions. Temperatures in parts of Western Europe reached 40 degrees Celsius, or 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Roads buckled, rail tracks warped and traffic lights malfunctioned. Transport operators also imposed speed restrictions or cancelled services.

According to the U.N. Economic Commission for Europe, transport infrastructure in the region is more exposed to thermal stress and deformation of rails as heat extremes increase.

Decarbonisation has dominated Europe's narrative on infrastructure spending for years. Investors have focused on windmills, solar panels and electric vehicles.

A different infrastructure story is emerging as it becomes apparent that Europe was built largely for a climate which no longer exists.

It may be that the next major investment cycle is less about generating cleaner energy, and more about making sure trains run, roads are intact and electricity systems function during summer heatwaves.

THE ROAD TRADE The European Environment Agency identified the protection of infrastructure against heat-related risk as one of Europe's urgent adaptation priority.

The problem is most evident on the road surface.

Asphalt binders that are conventionally used soften in heat and cause cracking, rutting and deformation. Many of Northern Europe's transportation infrastructures were designed to withstand temperatures that are no longer relevant with the fall in heat records.

This indicates an increase in demand for polymer modified bitumen, and other high-performance pavement materials that are already widely used in hotter climates.

TotalEnergies' Styrelf polymer-modified binder range is specifically marketed for its resistance to rutting and thermal cracking, as well as heavy climate stress.

These products are used on a wide range of demanding applications, from highways to airport runways to?racing tracks.

Shell is also a potential winner. The company is still one of the largest bitumen suppliers in the world and has increased its range of advanced binder designed to increase pavement life span and withstand harsher operating conditions.

Investment opportunities do not always lie in the development of breakthrough technologies. It may be as simple as selling Northern Europe road materials that are standard in Southern Europe or the Middle East.

The RAIL RESILIENCE BOOM

Railways are a greater challenge.

The European Union's ambitions to reduce carbon emissions are heavily dependent on the shift of passengers and goods onto rail. Rail systems are sensitive to temperature extremes, because steel expands when heated.

Heatwaves in recent weeks have caused service disruptions in multiple countries. Operators are dealing with deformation of rails, melted sealants, signalling problems and speed restrictions.

UNECE warned that such disruptions will become more common if?adaptation is not taken.

This creates new opportunities for rail infrastructure specialists.

The German company Vossloh?supplies concrete sleepers and rail fastening system designed for various climate zones around the world.

When thermal expansion occurs, concrete sleepers and stronger fastening systems are used to maintain track stability.

Pandrol's fastening system, which is used in rail networks all over the world, will also benefit from efforts made to increase track resilience and reduce maintenance requirements under climate conditions that are becoming more volatile.

voestalpine Rail Systems, Austria, also stands to benefit from increased spending on rail components and turnouts.

The climate adaptation strategy of Europe for transport could require that significant sections be rebuilt to standards previously associated with regions much hotter.

The Unsung Materials Story

Those investors looking for adaptable winners should also pay attention to cement, specialty chemicals, and construction materials.

Thermal expansion and accelerated wear are the main effects of heat stress on bridges, tunnels, and other civil structures.

Companies like Heidelberg Materials, Holcim, and Sika are in a position to be attractive players on this theme, as they provide advanced concretes and specialty additives. They also supply sealants, reinforcements systems, and other products which can prolong asset life even under more harsh conditions.

It is possible that the adaptation trade will end up being as much a story of materials as it will be an engineering story.

Climate adaptation, just as the energy shift created a demand for lithium and copper, could also create a sustained demand?for polymer add-ins, high performance concrete, advanced steel and construction chemicals.

DON'T FORGET THE GRID

Power sector is another story.

Electricity is increasingly important for transport systems. Power networks are required to operate in extreme temperatures for railways, signalling equipment and charging infrastructure.

This should encourage the demand for higher-performance cables and transmission systems with upgraded conductors.

Prysmian, Nexans and other major European grid expansion projects are all already being supplied by these companies. The Nordic cable manufacturer NKT will benefit from the network reinforcement and underground wiring programmes. French grid operator RTE recently announced plans to lay 45,000 km of transmission and distribution cables by 2030.

THE NEXT SUPER-CYCLE IN INFRASTRUCTURE? The decarbonisation of the market is a shortsighted focus.

If rail services are not available during heatwaves, every euro spent on electrifying transportation is less valuable. If transmission systems are unable to cope with extreme weather, then every investment in clean energy loses value.

Europe's policymakers spent more than two decades trying to reduce emissions.

It may be more important to ask how we can keep society running in a world that is warmer.

Heat-resistant asphalt, advanced elastomeric lubricants and expansion joints are unlikely to generate the same excitement as solar and battery stocks.

When temperatures exceed 40C, they can be just as important.

These are the opinions of a columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)