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The Iran War energy crisis has just begun: Bousso
The Iran War has brought the oil refining sector to its knees, indicating that gasoline and diesel prices could remain high for many years. The global energy inflation shock will continue to be felt, whether or not a deal is reached. Oil markets have adapted well to the sudden loss of a quarter of the world's crude oil supplies during the conflict in the Middle East, but the refinery industry has had fewer options. The difference between the crude oil and fuel prices is telling. Benchmark Brent crude is currently around $90 per barrel. Although this is a 25% increase from levels when 'the conflict' began on February 28, the price is still a far cry from the peak of $118. The same has not been true for refined products. Since the start of the war, European diesel prices are up more than 70%. In contrast, U.S. gas prices are up around 60%. This is due to a drastic decline in refinery output. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the war has wiped out more than 20 percent of the Middle East’s 9,6 million barrels of refinery capacity per day, and fuel exports are still suppressed because of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Many refiners in Asia were forced to reduce their operations due to the loss of Gulf crude. The strain was then exacerbated by the months-long Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. In recent months, these attacks reduced Russia's refinery throughput to less than 4 million bpd. This forced Moscow to ban the export of diesel in July. Diesel refining margins have soared to record levels in Europe, Asia, and the U.S. Since February, European diesel cracks are now above $75 per barrel. U.S. Diesel margins are up more than 140% and reached a new record of $100 this week. Pre-war fuel stocks have helped to mitigate the crisis, but they are now essentially gone. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped at a rate equivalent to more than 3% in demand between March and July. They are expected to continue to decline until the end of this year. U.S. Diesel inventories have reached their lowest level for this time of the year in 30 years, and gasoline stocks are at the weakest seasonal levels since 2012. The disruptions in the global fuel industry have combined to create a gaping hole that the industry struggles to fill. According to the IEA, global refinery runs were 5.1 millions bpd less than a year ago. The high prices have also reduced the demand from businesses and consumers but not enough to offset 'the supply crunch. The demand for refined products fell by a total of 4?million barrels per day (bpd) last quarter, resulting in a deficit of more than one million barrels per day. In the third quarter, it is expected that the balance will continue to worsen. Refinery runs will be down 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to last year, but demand is only expected to drop by 2.4 million. The geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia are fluid, making these projections highly uncertain. Fuel supply is decreasing faster than demand. INFLATIONARY PRESURES What if Washington and Tehran achieve a diplomatic breakthrough that permanently reopens Strait of Hormuz. This would probably lead to a drop in crude oil prices but not necessarily a quick recovery in the refined products market. More than 20 refineries in the Gulf were damaged during the war and many will need extensive repairs. Before the war, lead times for critical equipment, such as compressors, heat-exchangers and specialised catalysers, were already long. A'speedy recovery' is therefore improbable. China's reaction to tightening supply will be crucial. During the war, the world's second largest refinery drastically reduced its processing rate and curtailed exports of fuel. The demand destruction may be greater than expected as businesses and consumers cut back on their spending due to the high energy costs. The urgent need to replenish, and in some instances expand, global fuel inventories will?add upwards pressure to the refining market for many years. This dynamic increases the likelihood of an extended period of energy-driven price inflation in this winter and beyond. Recent inflation data already point in this direction. U.S. consumer prices rose by 3.4% from July of last year, largely due to a 14.7% rise in energy costs. This included a 24.6% increase in gasoline. Euro-zone inflation increased to 2.9% in July, mainly due to a 10% increase in energy prices. In Japan, the producer price index rose by 7.2%. Wall Street economists and analysts still believe that the spike in energy prices will only be a short-term phenomenon, unlikely to affect core inflation. If the crisis in refined products is as severe as current data indicates, this assumption could be overly optimistic. This is particularly true in Europe and Asia where the price of liquefied gas has also risen. Energy prices have risen in the U.S., and current projections for the year are at risk. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who has made lowering costs of living one of the central pillars of his second term in office, seems to have acknowledged this by warning Americans last weekend to be prepared for higher energy prices. The world is experiencing a slow-motion crisis six months after the Iran War began. Fuel market safety buffers have been eroded as inventories are depleted. Meanwhile, disruptions from the war continue straining the already over-stressed refinery system. Just getting started is the energy crisis that will really affect global economic growth. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Vietnam's foreign ministry says it will constructively address US concerns about transshipment.
Vietnam's Foreign Ministry said that it will continue to address U.S. concerns about transshipment in a constructive manner. Washington had said last week it lost annual 'tariff revenues' of between $19 and $26 billion on goods, mostly from China, which are transshipped via third countries including Vietnam to avoid U.S. import duties. Pham 'Thu Hang, spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry in Hanoi, said at a regular Hanoi press conference: "We will...continue to engage...in dialogue regarding U.S. concerns in a positive manner and consistent the Vietnam-U.S. Comprehensive Strategic Partnership." She said: "This will 'help to maintain the stable, mutually benevolent growth of economic relations and trade between the two countries and... at the same time, contribute to a wealthy, transparent,?investment, and business environment in Vietnam." Reporting by Phuong nguyen, Writing by Khanh Vu, Editing by David Stanway & John Mair
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The parent company says that the Epstein-linked chairman of Malaysian Port Operator was selected for his expertise.
MMC Corporation (which owns Malaysia's largest port operator) informed staff via an internal memo that Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem had been?appointed as executive chairman of the ports unit due to his expertise and proven track record. This was after public outcry regarding his alleged ties with Jeffrey Epstein. The chief executive of MMC Corporation sent the memo to all staff. The memo stated that Emirati Bin Sulayem was appointed to MMC Ports in accordance with the parent's mission of elevating its businesses to international excellence and competitiveness. Exclusively reported in July, Bin Sulayem was to take over MMC Ports five months after he resigned from Dubai's D?P?World, amid scrutiny of his alleged connections with financier Epstein. Epstein is a convicted sexual offender who passed away in a prison cell in 2019. MMC Ports has seven ports located along the Malacca Strait - one of the busiest shipping routes in the world. The appointment has raised concerns about the governance of a company which controls one of the most important shipping?corridors in the world. MMC Ports has been unable to complete its planned stock market listing, which would have been Malaysia's largest in over a decade. In the memo, Nazrul mansor, chief executive, said that Bin Sulayem had a track record for driving growth, improving operational excellence, and creating strategic international partnerships. He did not mention concerns about Bin Sulayem’s connections to Epstein. Nazrul said that MMC 'Ports will gradually strengthen its organization with the new appointment. This includes the establishment of a senior management team. The memo was not dated, so it was unclear when it was released. MMC Corp. and its subsidiaries did not respond immediately to an email request for comment. The U.S. Department of Justice published documents that suggest Bin Sulayem had a close relationship with Epstein, even after Epstein's 2008 conviction on charges of prostitution involving a minor. The allegations contained in the files could not be independently verified. The fact that you are named in these files is not proof of criminal conduct. Bin Sulayem did not comment publicly on Epstein's involvement and was not available for comment. MMC PORTS IS 100% MALAYSIAN OWNED, SAYS MMC CORP CEO Bin Sulayem’s appointment at MMC Ports sparked outrage in social media, with many users doubting his suitability. A group of 31 civil societies groups also called on Malaysian billionaire Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary - who holds a majority stake in MMC Corp - to revoke his appointment. They cited geopolitical risks and financial risk. Malaysia's Transport Minister said in response to this appointment last month that the government could not interfere with the management of private companies, and that it was only able to regulate the shareholding structure of companies. MMC Ports concession agreements stipulate that the company must be owned by at least 51% Malaysians. MMC's Nazrul stated in the memo that MMC Ports is a 100% owned unit of MMC Corp. It will "always remain a Malaysian Company, guided by Malaysian Values, serving Malaysian Interests, while competing?confidently on a global stage." MMC Ports was 'expected' to pursue the largest IPO Malaysia has seen in more than a decade, but announced in October the company had postponed the planned listing. The Edge, a Malaysian financial newspaper, reported Thursday that MMC Corp told its advisors to stop the listing process. The report was not immediately verified. (Reporting and editing by Martin Petty, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Ashley Tang)
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The Iran War energy crisis has just begun: Bousso
The Iran War has brought the oil refining sector to its knees, signaling that gasoline and diesel prices could remain high for many years. The global energy inflation shock will not be over until a deal is reached. Oil markets have adapted well to the sudden loss of a 5th?of the global crude supply from the Middle East due to the conflict. However, the refinery industry has had fewer options. The difference between the crude oil and fuel prices is telling. Brent crude oil, the benchmark price for all other crude oils, is around $90 per barrel. Although this is up by about 25% compared to levels at the beginning of the conflict, on February 28th, it's still a substantial drop from the peak wartime price of $118. The same has not been true for refined products. Since the start of the war, European diesel prices are up more than 70%. In contrast, U.S. gas prices are up around 60%. This is due to a drastic decline in refinery output. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the war has wiped out more than 20 percent of the Middle East’s 9,6 million barrels of refinery capacity per day, and fuel exports are still suppressed because of the Strait of Hormuz closure. Many refiners in Asia were forced to reduce their operations due to the loss of Gulf crude. This strain was then exacerbated by the months-long Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. In recent months, these attacks have reduced Russia's refinery throughput to less than 4 million bpd. This forced Moscow to ban diesel exports. Diesel refining margins have soared to record levels in Europe, Asia, and the U.S. Since February, European diesel cracks are now above $75 per barrel. U.S. Diesel margins are up more than 140% and reached a record high of $100 this week. Pre-war fuel stocks have helped to mitigate the crisis, but they are now essentially gone. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped at a rate equivalent to 3.5 million bpd from March to July. This is more than 3% greater than global oil demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects this decline to continue until year-end. U.S. Diesel inventories are the lowest they have been for this time in 30 years, and gasoline stocks are their weakest level of seasonality since 2012. The disruptions combined have left a gaping hole in the global fuel production, which the industry is struggling with. According to the IEA, global?refinery run rates in the second quarter of 2008 were 5.1 millions bpd less than a year ago. The high prices have also affected demand, but not enough to offset the shortage. Last quarter, the demand for refined products fell by 4,000,000 bpd. This left a deficit of?more that 1,000,000 bpd. In the third quarter, it is expected that the balance will continue to worsen. Refinery runs will be down 4.1 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to last year, but demand is only expected to drop by 2.4 million. The geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia are fluid, making these projections highly uncertain. Fuel supply is decreasing faster than demand. What would happen if Washington and Tehran reached a diplomatic breakthrough that permanently reopened the Strait of Hormuz. This would probably lead to a drop in crude oil prices but not necessarily a quick recovery in the refined products market. This is because over 20 refineries in the Gulf were damaged during the war. Many of them will need extensive repairs. Before the war, lead times for critical equipment, such as compressors, heat-exchangers, and specialised catalysers, were already long. A rapid recovery is therefore unlikely. China's reaction to the tightening of supplies will be crucial. During the war, the world's second largest refinery drastically reduced its processing rate and cut fuel exports. The demand destruction may be greater than expected as businesses and consumers cut back on their spending due to the high energy costs. The urgent need to replenish, and in some instances expand, global fuel inventories will add upward pressure to the refining market for many years. This dynamic increases the likelihood of an extended bout of energy-driven price inflation in this winter and beyond. Recent inflation data already point in this direction. U.S. consumer price rose by?3.4% from a year ago in July, largely due to a 14.7% rise in energy costs. This included a 24.6% increase in gasoline prices. Euro-zone inflation increased to 2.9% in July, mainly due to a 10% increase in energy prices. In Japan, the producer price index increased 7.2%. Wall Street economists and analysts still believe that the spike in energy prices will only be a short-term phenomenon, unlikely to have a significant impact on core inflation. If the crisis in refined products is as severe as current data indicates, this assumption could be overly optimistic. It is particularly true in Europe and Asia where the price of liquefied gas has also risen. Energy prices have risen in the U.S., and current projections for the year are at risk. Donald Trump, the U.S. president who made lowering costs of living one of the central pillars of his second term in office, has acknowledged this by warning Americans to be prepared for higher energy prices last week. The world is experiencing a slow-motion crisis nearly six months after the Iran War began. Fuel?market safety buffers have been eroded as inventories are depleted. Meanwhile, disruptions from the war continue straining the already overstressed refinery system. Just getting started is the energy crisis that will really affect global economic growth. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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South Korean container ship to test Arctic route from Europe amid Western concerns
South Korea will flag off a container ship bound to Europe via the Arctic on Saturday, testing if a route made possible by melting sea ice is commercially viable. However, the trip requires Russian cooperation, which could cause friction with Western allies. The 'trip' would be South Korea’s first commercial voyage via the Arctic to Europe, if it is successful. It will join China and Russia as the only countries that have run or tested cargo services on this route. PanStar Acro, which will depart from Busan and sail north, will stop at Felixstowe, Britain, Rotterdam, Netherlands, and Gdansk, Poland, before returning. The journey is expected to last 40-45 days. The Arctic sea ice will be at its lowest level for the year around September, which is when the majority of this journey will take place. This makes navigation safer, said an official from the group, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn't authorized to speak to the media. President Lee Jae?Myung made Arctic shipping his top priority. Officials said it could transform the port of Busan in the southeast into a global hub for maritime traffic and make the Arctic a regular route to trade by 2030. WESTERN DIPLOMATS NOT HAPPY WITH PLAN Western diplomats are not happy with the plan because it requires Seoul to consult Russia in order to obtain permits for the ship’s voyage. One European diplomat said, "We don't want engagement with Russia. We want to isolate Russia." Citing Russia's conflict in Ukraine, the diplomat added that his concerns were expressed to South Korean officials. Arctic shipping experts have also said that South Korea may be in danger of violating sanctions if it asks Russia for help with problems on its route, like getting stuck in the ice. The South Korean Oceans Ministry, and the Russian Foreign Ministry have not responded to requests for comments. FASTER MELTING SEA ICE MAKES ROUTE ATTRACTIVE This summer, the Northern Sea Route is more attractive due to the faster melting of Arctic sea ice attributed by global warming. The Norwegian tracking foundation Centre for High North Logistics said that 88 vessels transited the NSR in 2013, up from 43 in 2022 and 97 in 2024. This is mainly due to nations like Russia and China. The Oceans Ministry of South Korea said that the Arctic route would shorten journeys up to 35% compared to the traditional Suez Canal and use less fuel. Commercial feasibility may be more difficult to determine. Hyewonchoi, an ex-navy officer, said that factors like vessel size limitations and insurance costs swelled the unit?transport costs on the Arctic route. He said that container ships can only use the NSR during the summer months, when the ice is melting. PanStar was selected in a government-backed bid for the pilot trip. It bought a 2,700 TEU (Twenty Foot Equivalent Units) container ship that HMM is currently modifying for polar navigation. The crew includes 20 Koreans and Indonesians. The company said it was looking for at least 1,300 TEUs of cargo, including automobile parts, cosmetics and food, as well as shipments from China, and Japan. Clients from Japan have expressed interest. FIRST-MOVER AVANTAGE The PanStar official stated that China was 'already trying to gain first-mover advantages on the route. This makes a South Korean trip more urgent. "Korea needs to start accumulating data and operating experience that it did not have before, in order to achieve the national goal of commercial service by 2030." The Russian operator of the NSR says that the Chinese container company Sea Legend Shipping will launch the first regular service for containers to Europe via this route.
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CK Hutchison wants $1.5 billion in arbitration from Panama
CK Hutchison announced on Thursday that it had filed a?international arbitration proceeding against Panama, and sought?damages in excess of $1.5 billion for?the 'destruction' of its investments. CK Hutchison stated that Panama had violated an investment treaty following a series measures taken over the last two years, which culminated in "the destruction of the concession contract for?the ports?of Balboa?and Cristobal?and the takeover of port terminals". The Hong Kong-based conglomerate stated that "the?board strongly disapproves of the measures taken by Panama to violate the?treaty". Conglomerate owned by Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka shing, is caught up in a diplomatic spat since U.S. president Donald Trump protested Chinese ownership of port facilities along the Panama Canal. This was followed by Panama cancelling its concessions to operate ports in the country. Panama Ports Company, its subsidiary, will continue to pursue separate international 'arbitration proceedings', which were launched in February, after the country’s top court revoked two of its licenses for operating Panama Canal ports. PPC, who for almost 'three decades operated the Balboa & Cristobal Terminals near the Panama Canal, increased its claim to $2?billion by March, over what it described as the?state's illegal takingover of two terminals & company property.
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Argentina launches a 50-year tender to Belgrano Cargas Rail concession
Luis Caputo, Argentina's Economy Minister, announced a?tender for a concession of 50 years to operate the Belgrano Cargas Freight Railway Network. The privatization of the three largest freight railway lines in Argentina is part of President Javier Milei’s larger push to sell struggling state-owned companies to attract investment and to help rebuild depleted foreign reserve. The concession will operate on an open-access system and have mandatory investment plans. Companies?that spend at least $200,000,000 in track renewal are eligible for tax - and customs benefits, under the country's RIGI incentive scheme. Argentina is a global agricultural exporter and lowering transport costs is crucial. The private operation of these lines will reduce the cost to move grain and other goods between farms in the north and west of Argentina and the main river port around Rosario. The government said that the 'initiative' could increase exports of important commodities such as soybeans, shale sand,?corn and copper, as well as facilitate the transport of sand into the Vaca Muerta shale formation in Patagonia. Grupo Mexico, a Mexican conglomerate, said in July that it would be interested in acquiring the concession as long as it had full control over both the infrastructure and the operations. (Reporting and Writing by Eliana Razewski; Editing by Daina B. Solomon)
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US FTC is considering requiring disclosure of customized pricing
Federal Trade Commission officials in the United States said Wednesday that they are considering requiring companies to disclose whether or not they use personal data for pricing. This practice has been under a growing amount of scrutiny by federal and state officials. The FTC released a draft of its enforcement policy statement, which states that the law prohibiting deceptive practices would likely prohibit undisclosed uses of personal data in setting prices. Surveillance Pricing is a method whereby companies use personal data, such as a customer's browsing history, their location, and their shopping habits, to determine individualized algorithmic pricing for products. Andrew Ferguson, FTC Chairman, said: "When consumers are shown a price, they expect to see the same price as everyone else, and not the retailer’s estimation of what they will pay based upon their personal data." The FTC cited several examples of improper surveillance pricing. Some potential red flags include when delivery companies charge higher prices for "milk" based on the fact that there are multiple children in a home or hotels increase prices if they know that a customer is traveling to a funeral. Public comments on the FTC's proposed policy for enforcement will be accepted for 30 days. The FTC stated that it did not take a stance on whether or not some personalized pricing practices were legal. Even when the full disclosure is made, it can still be unfair. California Attorney General Rob Bonta launched a wide-ranging investigation in January into the use of personal data for setting individualized prices. Republican and Democratic members of the U.S. Congress have raised similar concerns. Grace Gedye is a senior policy analyst with Consumer Reports. She praised the FTC's action. She said: "Nobody should be forced to pay more because a company knows what they search for online, their income, their family composition, or their location." Lee Hepner is a senior lawyer at the American Economic Liberties Project. He called for the FTC's further action. Hepner stated that "getting hit by a?train?is not less painful if you are tied to the track and can see it coming." Instacart stopped price testing in December. This was the practice of showing different prices to different customers. Consumer Reports, two other nonprofit organizations and the company backed away from this practice after a study showed that some shoppers were charged up to 23% more than others for the same products. In November, legislators asked Delta Air Lines if they set personalized prices or other pricing practices. Delta replied that it does not base its prices on personal information. (Reporting and editing by David Shepardson)
Bundesbank: German economy is hampered due to depleted rivers
The Bundesbank stated that the depletion of German rivers is hampering the recovery in Europe's largest economy.
The Rhine, and other German rivers are so shallow due to months of dry weather that ships can't be fully loaded. This increases costs and delays transport for cargo owners.
The Bundesbank stated that this would likely slow down the recovery of Germany's economy, which will at best grow slightly in this quarter.
In its monthly report, the Bundesbank said that "limited transport routes along major rivers and sharply increasing transport costs will likely" significantly impede industrial production and export growth. The Bundesbank's monthly report states that "the low water levels have a noticeable impact on the overall economic activity during the third quarter."
The report noted that German industry still had a low capacity utilization rate and that the recent increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank was also dampening corporate investment.
The German central bank stated that inflation could temporarily rise further from 2.8% in July. However, the outlook was still dependent on Middle East conflict.
It warned?that it was not clear that the conflict would have a second-round effect on inflation through increased negotiated wages. Reporting by Francesco Canepa, Editing by Toby Chopra
(source: Reuters)