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Maguire: High gas prices will test the endurance of US LNG exports.
U.S. LNG manufacturers have shipped record volumes of super-chilled fuel in 2026. However, rising natural gas prices could soon reduce demand. Data from LSEG show that the prices of key forward gas and LNG in Europe, Asia (which together account for more than 80% U.S. LNG shipments) have risen to their highest levels in'more than three years. The ongoing war between Israel and the United States against Iran has disrupted freight traffic in?the?Gulf, and cut LNG flows from key exporter Qatar by over 60% compared to last year. The ongoing?U.S. Exporters will soon see a softer market, as buyers delay purchases due to high freight costs and seasonal decreases in gas consumption. PRICED OUT According to LSEG, the estimated forward price for LNG deliveries in Asia is expected to rise to over $22 per million British Thermal Units (MMBtu) by October, November, and December. This compares with an average of under $17 per MMBtu in 2026, so far. It would be the highest price seen in Asia since 2023 at the beginning of the year when the global gas market was reeling due to Russia's invasion and disruptions of Russian gas flow. Gas purchases in Japan, China, and South Korea will likely be lower until utilities restock their gas supplies as winter approaches. LSEG data indicates that gas consumers in Europe can expect to pay a benchmark price of $21.50 to 22.50 per MMBtu at the Netherlands Gas Trading Hub from October to December. This would be the highest rate since?late 2012, according to LSEG. The European gas market is showing signs of a slowdown. The use of renewable energy is replacing gas-fired electricity, and households are electrifying their heating systems to reduce fossil fuel usage. Similarly, European gas stocks remain below long-term norms, which means utilities will have to replenish their stockpiles in order for heating demand to pick up. Recent import trends indicate that buyers are not in a hurry to purchase additional LNG at the current price. According to Kpler's data, Europe imported a total 6.2 million tons of LNG during July. This is the lowest total for July since 2021. The slow pace of imports suggests that buyer concerns about fuel prices currently outweigh those regarding potential supply security. EXPORTER PERSPECTIVE The prospect of a near term lull in demand from importers will not cause concern for U.S. LNG suppliers, particularly with the record-breaking?tallies that have already been recorded for the first 7 months of the year. Kpler data show that U.S. companies exported just under 73 million tonnes of LNG between January and July. This is a 23% increase from the same period in 2025. It is possible that prolonged periods of high gasoline prices in certain key markets could?accelerate the electrification effort and the switch to alternative energy sources. The cost-sensitive markets of Asia, which also has a rapidly growing?renewables?generation and a strong growth in battery storage systems, are likely to be the most affected. Storage operators may be discouraged from making discretionary purchases if natural gas prices are high. They will not want to fill up tanks if prices are high, in case the demand is low through the winter. This could limit their reselling options. The LNG exporters should also be aware of the planned increases in export volumes. Several liquefaction expansions are expected to take place in the U.S.A. and Canada before the end of the decade. The majority of these planned expansion projects have been approved on the assumption that gas consumption in all markets will continue to grow in tandem with supply. Gas prices may be high enough in certain regions to reduce local 'demand' and speed up energy transition. Exporters will face fierce competition to find buyers regardless of the amount they have to sell. These are the opinions of a columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks. (Reporting and editing by Christopher Cushing; reporting by Gavin Maguire)
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Southeast Asia's budget airline sector is aiming for recovery, but fuel scars remain
Southeast Asia's budget airlines hope the worst fuel crisis from the Middle East is behind them, but they face a "difficult" second half due to margin pressures and strained household budgets. AirAsia, Singapore Airlines and Cebu Pacific's latest quarterly results show that attempts to recover fuel costs by raising fares failed. AirAsia, Cebu Pacific and Scoot all reported losses. Scoot saw its operating loss almost double. The results revealed a strain at the core of the low-cost airline model. Fuel costs are higher than full-service airlines but the price-sensitive nature of passengers leaves carriers with less room to raise fares without reducing demand. The weakened dollar against the?Malaysian Ringgit, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah, and Philippine Peso increased fuel and aircraft lease costs, which are usually priced in U.S. dollars. Mike Szucs, CEO of Cebu Pacific, said in a recent earnings call that the second quarter had been "the most challenging operating environment Cebu Pacific faced since the pandemic." Another executive stated that the airline's fuel costs had more than doubled compared to a year ago, with the impact being magnified by the 8% depreciation of the peso. Cebu Pacific hedged 30% of its fuel requirements for the third quarter at less than $120 per barrel in order to ensure near-term security. Nathan Gee is the head of Asia-Pacific Transportation Research at BofA Global Research. He said that full-service airlines were better protected due to a?strong demand for premium passengers after the pandemic. He said that budget carriers are less likely to benefit from the pandemic because they offer more basic products and have smaller loyalty programs. Betting on a Fourth-Quarter Recovery AirAsia has prepared for a slow third quarter. It says that this is the weakest period for regional travel. AirAsia plans to reduce seat capacity in the third quarter by 20 to 25 percent compared to last year, return 25 older planes to lessors between 2026-2027 and suspend the Sydney-Kuala Lumpur flight from October. This is part of a larger network recalibration. Bo Lingam, CEO of the airline, said in a press release that it was adopting a "deliberate and tactical approach" in order to protect the bottom line. Jet fuel prices averaged $183 per barrel during the second quarter. AirAsia recorded an $82 million net loss on foreign exchange. Lingam stated that the airline anticipates restoring capacity to prewar levels in fourth quarter with forward bookings in line with last years. Scoot continues to increase capacity, as the demand is strong. Scoot's passenger unit costs rose 21.7% during the three-month period ending in June. This pushed its operating loss from S$17 to S$32, despite higher fares. Scoot would have had to fill all seats to cover its operating costs, compared to an actual load of 90.6%. Calvin Chan, Scoot's Chief Commercial Officer, said that the airline's fare adjustments have not completely offset the higher fuel prices. The Middle East conflict continues to cloud the future. Gee? said that a decline in fuel costs would not only ease immediate pressure on airlines but also encourage them to compete more aggressively with fares and restore capacity. He said that intra-Asian routes are particularly vulnerable because the supply of narrowbody aircraft is recovering faster than widebody jets. This additional?capacity may not be enough to meet the weaker demand. Brendan Sobie, an independent aviation analyst, said that the middle class in Southeast Asia could be unable to travel during the peak season and for the remainder of the year due to tight budgets. He said, "The short-term prospects are rather bleak." While there is some hope for improvement in the fourth-quarter, it's too early to tell.
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Low river levels have a negative impact on the Ok Tedi copper mining company in Papua New Guinea
Ok Tedi Mining in Papua New Guinea is evaluating alternative logistics to'supply its copper and gold mining due to a 'lower than 'normal water -levels on the Fly River, which will also increase costs. The miner in PNG's Western Province is actively sourcing alternative logistic arrangements to ensure fuel supply and other essential consumables. It also sources equipment, as well as operational requirements. In a press release, Kedi Ilimbit, the Managing Director and CEO of Kedi Mining and Processing Company said that "at present mining and processing operations are continuing". While the current conditions present additional logistical challenges, OK?Tedi continues to adapt and adjust its operations as needed. The miner also said that Ok Tedi has experienced increased costs in managing the effects of the dry weather. This is particularly true for logistics and supply-chain management. Ok Tedi mined 105,000 tons of copper, 300,000 gold ounces and 1 million ounces silver in the past year. BHP developed and mined the mine in the southwest Pacific nation in the 1980s. BHP then divested its control and gained legal immunity, after disposing of its mine 'tailings' into river systems. The PNG government has owned it since 2013. Reporting by Melanie Burton, Editing by Stephen Coates
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Due to torrential rainfall, offices and schools in southern Taiwan have been closed
On Monday, torrential rains in southern Taiwan caused offices and schools to close. Some rail services were also disrupted. Officials are bracing themselves for a typhoon that is expected to hit the northern part of the island at the end of the week. Over the last few days, a low-pressure system hovered above southern Taiwan, causing heavy rains and flooding. Local governments in Kaohsiung, Tainan and Pingtung, which are home to a total of?more than four million people, closed offices and schools. The Kaohsiung Government said that it expects the cumulative rainfall to exceed 1.3 meters (4.3 feet) over the five-day low-pressure period, nearly half of what the city usually receives in an annual cycle. Taiwan Railway announced that there would be delays on the east coast main line, and on trains going to and from Kaohsiung or Taitung. Express services will not run and local trains are dependent on weather conditions. April Yao, Taitung's county chief, wrote on her Facebook page: "If you have nothing to wear for goodness sake do not go out." Taiwan's Central Weather Administration stated separately that Typhoon Saudel is currently?heading toward Japan's southern Okinawa area and?is expected?to pass by the northern part Taiwan on Friday morning before reaching the east coast of China. Ben Blanchard, reporting; Lincoln Feast, editing.
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Indian rescuers are searching for 22 missing people after a cargo ship sinks
Indian coastguards and navy carried out search-and rescue operations on Sunday off the eastern coast of India after a Panama flagged?bulk ship?carrying a crew of 24 sank. Two Chinese nationals were rescued. Shyam Jagannathan of India's Maritime Administration told Shyam that the two Chinese seafarers claimed the vessel called Ocean Winner developed a list and sank in eight minutes. This forced the crew to abandon the ship. Jagannathan stated that the chances of finding survivors usually fall after?the initial 12 hours. However, rescuers continued their search. Sarbananda Sonowal said, in a post on social media, that "all agencies are coordinating closely and actively doing search and recovery efforts." MISSING CREW MEMBERS According to India's Coastguard, the missing crew members includes 18 more Chinese, three Myanmarese and one Bangladeshi. In a recent post, the Indian Navy stated that it is working closely with the Coastguard to find?the missing sailors. A coastguard spokesperson confirmed that two coastguard vessels were sent from Sri Vijaya Puram (formerly Port Blair), the capital of India’s Andaman and Nicobar archipelago. According to an initial report by India's Maritime Administration, the Ocean Winner carried?iron ore bound towards China after leaving India's eastern Paradip Port on Friday. According to government sources, it sank 240 nautical miles from the port. The cause of this sinking wasn't immediately known. Disha Mishra, Bengaluru (additional reporting); Mayank Bhardwaj (writing); Raju Gopalakrishnan & Helen Popper (editing)
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Iran announces that the Pakistani army chief will visit Tehran on Monday
Esmaeil baghaei, the'spokesperson' for the Iranian foreign ministry, said that Asim Munir, the Pakistani army chief, will visit Tehran on Monday in order to continue his 'efforts' to bring peace and stability to the region. Pakistan has assumed a role as a mediator in the negotiations between Iran, the U.S., and Israel to end the war that began in February with the U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. Two sources in the Pakistani government confirmed Munir’s visit. First source: Iran and Pakistan are in direct contact. Second source: The 'talks' would also cover recent developments, such as the threat by Donald Trump to impose tougher sanctions on Iran. "He (Munir) will discuss peace under Islamabad's MoU, Trump's ?warning and the ?situation after the Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Arab Agreement and Houthi issues with Iranian leaders," the source said. The visit coincides with heightened tensions, as Iran threatens to respond militarily to U.S. sanctions plans that could put further strain on the Islamic Republic’s already-ailing economy. The announcement will be made on Monday, when U.S. officials are expected to announce details about the planned sanctions that they have described as "the most severe sanctions in history" against?Iran. Trump has warned of the economic consequences for any country providing "any kind of lifeline" to Iran as he seeks to isolate it. The Strait of Hormuz is a virtual standstill for oil shipments. Tehran has threatened to hit unauthorized oil tankers who try to?transit the vital waterway. Iran's economic situation is already being impacted by sanctions.
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Search for 22 people after Bulker sinks off India
India's Coast Guard &?Navy conducted search and rescue operations on Sunday off the east coast of India after a cargo vessel?flagged by Panama sank with a crew of?24. Two Chinese nationals were rescued. Shyam Jagannathan is the director general of India’s Maritime Administration. He told reporters that two Chinese seafarers were rescued. They said their vessel began to list and sank in eight minutes. This forced crews to abandon ship. Jagannathan stated that the chances of finding survivors usually fall sharply after 12 hour, but rescuers are continuing their search. According to the Indian Coast Guard, 22 crew members are still'missing' from Ocean Winner. These include 18 Chinese nationals, 3 Myanmar?nationals, and 1 Bangladeshi. In a recent post, the Navy stated that the Indian Navy was working closely with the Coast Guard in order to locate the rest of the crew. A Coast Guard spokesperson said that two vessels were sent from Sri Vijaya Puram (formerly Port Blair) to help with the search and rescue operation. According to an initial report from India's Maritime Administration, the Ocean 'Winner' was carrying iron ore bound towards China when it left India's eastern 'Paradip' port on Friday. According to government sources, the cargo ship sank 240 nautical miles away from the port. It was not known what caused the sinking. (Disha Mishra, Bengaluru, contributed additional reporting; Mayank Bhardwaj wrote the article; Raju Gopalakrishnan edited it)
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India launches rescue operations after bulk carrier sinks near east coast
The Indian Coast Guard reported that India's maritime rescue agency had lost contact with a cargo vessel flying the Panamanian flag, which sank near the eastern coast of India. According to Commandant Amit?Uniyal?, a spokesperson for Coast Guard, the vessel was manned by 24 people, 20 of whom were Chinese, three Myanmarese and one Bangladeshi. Uniyal reported that the Coast Guard dispatched?two vessels from Sri Vijaya Puram (formerly known as Port Blair) for a search and rescue mission. The Coast Guard has rescued two people from life rafts. The agency reported that a search and rescue mission was underway for seafarers aboard the vessel. According to government sources the Ocean Winner was carrying ore from India to Singapore after leaving India's eastern Paradip Port on Thursday. They added that 240 nautical mile away, the ship sank. The cause of the sinking is unknown. Captain Alekha Charan Sahoo said that he hoped for the best and prayed for the safety of all the crew on board. Reporting by Nidhi verma, Saurabh sharma, Jatindra dash, and Disha mishra from Bengaluru. Editing by Sharon Singleton, Rod Nickel, and Rod Nickel.
The crash of a coach carrying German students in high school in the Netherlands
Dutch police reported that a?coach? carrying high-school students from Germany crashed early Monday morning in the Netherlands, causing eight injuries. The injured were taken to hospital.
In a post posted on X, the police department in Gelderland Province?stated that "some of the victims taken to hospital are seriously injured." The accident also caused minor injuries to other?people.
A police spokesperson said that the coach, which was carrying more than 50 passengers, "crashed" near Wezep (about 100 km east of Amsterdam) at around 4 a.m. A collision with a delivery van, whose driver was among the injured victims, caused the accident at 0200 GMT.
After the accident, both directions of the A28 were closed. Reporting?by Bart Meijer, Inti Landauro and Alex Richardson; editing by Lincoln Feast & Alex Richardson
(source: Reuters)