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The war between Iran and ROI ushers a golden age of oil refining. Bousso: It won't be long.
The Iran war has triggered record oil refining earnings that are reviving the Big Oil business. Many investors had written it off. The sector is expected to deliver strong returns over the next few years. However, structural changes in oil demand will cause refining to lose its shine quickly. Refining is the least glamorous part of the oil industry, despite its critical role in the global supply chain. Western oil majors have been steadily retreating from the sector in the past 20 years, due to high operating costs, volatile margins, rising carbon costs, and increasing competition from state-backed refining companies from the Middle East and Africa. This retreat accelerated in the late 2010s in Europe as companies and governments bet more on the rapid adoption of electric vehicles to curb fuel demand in the 2030s. Refining capacity of Western oil giants shrank drastically as a result. According to calculations by Open Interest, the combined refining volume for BP and Chevron, Exxon Mobil Shell, TotalEnergies, and Exxon Mobil fell from 16,4 million barrels a day in 2005 (representing around 22%) to 10,4 million bpd in last year. This represents roughly 13% worldwide crude processing. Shell led the retreat by reducing its refinery interests from 40 to seven in the last five years. The refining climate has improved in the last year due to the increase in conflict in oil-rich areas. First, there's Iran. Refinery margins have reached record levels due to the combination of the effective closure of Strait of Hormuz for months, which limited refiners access to crude oil and Tehran's attacks against refineries in the Middle East. Refineries in Asia were forced to reduce their operating rates due to the loss of Middle Eastern crude. China, despite its huge crude stocks, chose to reduce refining and fuel exports aggressively to compensate for the sharp drop in crude imports. These disruptions combined to remove around 5 million barrels a day or 6% of global refining production from pre-war levels in the second quarter. According to the International Energy Agency, global refinery runs have averaged 78 million barrels per day, the lowest since the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. In the meantime, Russian refinery output has been severely reduced by months of unrelenting drone attacks from Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure, which forced Moscow to ban exports of diesel. That announcement sent diesel prices soaring. Pricing Superpower The combined impact of both conflicts on the profitability of?refining has been dramatic. Big Oil has enormous pricing power due to the shortage of refined products. This has encouraged operators and refineries to operate at full capacity. U.S. refineries that emerged as the largest fuel suppliers in the world during the conflict operated at 97% of capacity for the week ending July 24. This is well above the long-term average of 90%. BP's refining indicator margin, a measure of global refining profit, climbed from $17 per barrel to $30 in the second quarter, up from $12 a quarter earlier and $17 during the first. Indicator has averaged 42 dollars per barrel in the third quarter. Exxon reported downstream profits of $5.5billion in the second quarter. This was its highest result since 2022. The record diesel production drove this. Chevron’s downstream earnings rose to $4.9billion, their highest level for this decade. Shell's products division reported an adjusted profit of $2.5 billion, its highest in a decade. Its refining network was operating at 102% utilisation during the second quarter. Patrick Pouyanne, the Chief Executive Officer of TotalEnergies, summed up it well when he told investors late last month that their refining division had performed "exceptionally." BP will report its earnings on Tuesday. CAN IT LAST? The question is when. Fuel markets would be impacted by a sustainable solution to the U.S./Iran conflict, which involves a full reopening of Strait of Hormuz. It is clear that the problems of the industry cannot be fixed immediately. Repairing the damage to dozens refineries in Russia and the Middle East will take many months and even years. Global spare refining capacity is extremely thin. Demand is also a positive factor. Concerns about energy security have been rekindled by the Iran war. To protect themselves against future supply shocks, many governments have expanded strategic storage facilities to store both crude oil and refined fuels. The first step for governments is to replenish the stocks that were depleted by the conflict. According to estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, global oil stocks dropped by 5.1 millions barrels per day during the second quarter. They are expected to drop by another 2.2 million bpd by the third quarter. The rebuilding of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel inventories will take years, resulting in persistent demand. Alan Gelder is the senior vice president of Wood Mackenzie's refining division. He expects that refining margins will remain high and utilisation rates will be high through the end decade. This is due to the continued growth of oil demand, and the limited pipeline of refining projects. The party won't last The boom is a symptom of underlying fragility. War, damaged infrastructure, and scarcity are the main reasons for today's windfall profits, not a structural improvement of industry fundamentals. The world's capacity has been reduced faster than the demand. But this might not last for very long. Many countries that have limited domestic'refining capacity are now reevaluating whether they need to increase their local processing capability. Australia, for instance, has already begun to consider such plans. Over time, these investments could lead to a new wave in capacity and ultimately an oversupply. Oil majors are aware of this fact. Exceptional margins for a few years may be enough to slow down the decline of refining. They are unlikely to reverse the decline. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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China's WeRide expands its European footprint with a new entry in Denmark
WeRide, a Chinese company that specializes in autonomous driving technologies, announced on Monday it will enter Denmark via a partnership with GreenMobility. This would extend its European footprint to a sixth country as Chinese firms specializing in'self-driving' technology accelerate their overseas expansion. China's auto-driving companies are now looking to Europe as a major growth market, after a previous push into the Gulf Region. They want to expand their market beyond their own home market, amid increasing competition and regulatory scrutiny. According to a statement from the company, under the partnership, which is subject to regulatory approval, WeRide,?GreenMobility, and other partners plan to launch public robotaxi services in the first half 2027. WeRide has already deployed autonomous driving in France, Belgium, and Switzerland. The company's European activities currently focus on testing and pilot programs, but it operates commercial autonomous driving services already in China and United Arab Emirates. In recent months, Chinese auto-driving firms have been increasingly turning to Europe to build an international presence. Rival Pony.ai announced in March that it would partner up with Uber Technologies and Croatian autonomous vehicle startup?Verne, to launch what they described as Europe's?commercial robotaxi? service. Baidu's Apollo Go and Lyft's taxi application Freenow started road tests in London late July. Momenta recently received permits to conduct autonomous driving on German roads. The activity reflects the 'growing competition between Chinese autonomous driving developers to establish a 'early foothold in Europe where regulators are gradually opening up to testing and deployment self-driving cars.
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After a U-turn in the Red Sea, a Russian product tanker reroutes its route around Africa.
Trade sources and shipping data showed that a 'Panama-flagged' tanker carrying Russian naphtha attempted to pass through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait during 'the last week of July. The ship then changed course to sail instead around Africa, according to LSEG. Data shows that the Suezmax vessel Sea 'Icon' loaded 100,000 tons of naphtha from Ust-Luga, Russia, on July 1 for shipment to Asia. The Arab Maritime Petroleum Transport Company, based in Kuwait, controls the tanker. The company did not respond immediately to an email asking for comment. The 'tanker' made a U-turn as it approached the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which is a choke point linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This area has been the scene of repeated attacks against shipping in the past week. LSEG's ship tracking data indicated that as of 0400 GMT Monday, the ship had signaled Cape Town, South Africa, to be its?destination. The traffic through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has dwindled since the Iran-aligned Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia on 20 July.
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Cuba plunges in darkness after electric grid collapse
Cuba's electricity grid collapsed late Sunday night, according to the state-owned grid operator. This plunged a ten-million-person island into darkness, as blackouts are becoming more frequent. The island's energy infrastructure is being further strained by a U.S. oil blockade. In its posts on X or Facebook, the Union Electrica de 'Cuba did not provide any further information about the situation. Cuba is struggling to secure fuel imports, and this has increased the pressure on its power system. The country?lost its main source of fuel following an oil blockade by U.S. president Donald Trump after Washington ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. Venezuela has been Cuba's main oil supplier for many years. Imports from Mexico were also halted due to increased U.S. pressurization. Fuel shortages and severe U.S. sanction are driving the 'power crisis'. Havana has recently approved its first foreign-backed fuel?venture, allowing nearly?200 Cuban companies to participate in wholesale fuel distribution. (Reporting and editing by Christian Schmollinger, Clarence Fernandez, and Ananya Palyekar from Bengaluru)
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Italian-led EU forces board a sanctioned Russian tanker in the Mediterranean
A naval mission from the EU led by Italy boarded on Sunday a tanker belonging to 'Russia's shadow fleet. This is the second time in less than two weeks that a vessel has been boarded. Europe is intensifying its scrutiny of vessels suspected of helping Moscow bypass oil sanctions. The Italian Defence Ministry reported that the Toa Payoh tanker, which was subject to EU sanctions and was sailing from Benin towards Istanbul, had been intercepted just west of Pantelleria, an island in Sicily. According to a source with knowledge of the operation, the vessel only switched to a Cameroon registration last week. The inspection was conducted by the maritime authorities to ensure that the tanker had the legal right to fly the Cameroon Flag and that all of its registration documents were valid. Sources said that the EU Naval Mission, Operation EUNAVFOR Med Irini did not have authority to seize vessels at such inspections. Therefore, the Toa Payoh wasn't detained. The?documentation collected during the boarding is still being reviewed and can be used by national officials for a later sequestration, if needed. Toa Payoh’s captain initially refused to cooperate with EUNAVFOR MED’s mission. A team of Italian military personnel was then sent to board the vessel using a helicopter launched from the EUNAVFOR MED flagship, Thaon di Revel. The inspection, which was carried out by a Greek vessel with the assistance of a Polish maritime surveillance aircraft, took about two hours. It was concluded'safely,' according to the ministry. No immediate comment was made by Russia. The Sunday operation comes after the July 20 boarding of MV South Star. This tanker was also linked to Russia's Shadow Fleet and was inspected by Irini Forces over suspicions that it was also sailing under a false banner. The European Union has imposed sanctions against scores of vessels it claims are part of Russia's "shadow fleet", which is used to circumvent restrictions on oil exports ever since its invasion of Ukraine. EUNAVFOR Med Irini was launched in 2020 as a naval mission of the EU to enforce an arms embargo imposed by the U.N. on Libya. Since then, EU governments have expanded its scope by authorizing it to conduct verification boards. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey, Alex Richardson and Crispian Balmer)
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Italian-led EU forces board a sanctioned Russian tanker in the Mediterranean
The Italian Defence Ministry reported that an EU team led by Italy boarded on Sunday a tanker from Russia's "shadow fleet" to verify the nationality and flag registration. It was not immediately clear if the vessel had been held while the checks were being carried out. The ministry reported that the Toa Payoh tanker, which was under EU sanctions and sailing under the?flag of Cameroon's, had been intercepted by Italian authorities in the Mediterranean west of the island of Pantelleria while traveling from Benin towards Istanbul. The captain of the ship initially refused to cooperate. A team of Italian military 'personnel' then 'launched' a helicopter from the 'Thaon di Revel', the flagship of EUNAVFOR MED Irini. The inspection was carried out by a Greek vessel, assisted by a Polish maritime surveillance aircraft. It lasted two hours, and the ministry reported that it was completed safely. The Italian authorities examined the documentation that was obtained during the inspection. The European Union imposed sanctions on scores vessels it says are a part of the "shadow fleet" that Russia has used to circumvent its oil export restrictions since its invasion in Ukraine. EUNAVFOR MED 'Irini' is a naval mission of the EU launched in 2020 with the aim to enforce a U.N. -imposed arms embargo against Libya. Since then, EU governments have expanded?its mandate by authorizing it to conduct verification boards of vessels suspected of flying false flags. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey; Crispian Balmer)
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After talks fail, WestJet flight crews strike
Flight attendants at Canada's WestJet went 'on strike' on Sunday, after failing to reach an agreement with the country's second-largest airline. This resulted in the cancellation of flights during busy summer travel seasons. The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE), which represents 4,400 flight-attendants at the carrier owned by Onex Corp., gave a 72-hour notice on Thursday, signaling that there could be a strike if negotiations failed to yield an agreement. In a Sunday Facebook post announcing the?strike, the?union didn't provide any details. CUPE and airline 'didn't immediately respond to emailed requests for comments outside of business hours. The union wants to pay its members from the moment they arrive to the moment they leave, but that's not the case. WestJet canceled 309 flights from Sunday night to Monday morning in anticipation of the strike. The company stated on its website that it did this to "minimize the risk of guests and aircraft being stranded." The strike is part of a larger effort by flight attendants to challenge compensation structures that pay cabin crew primarily when the aircraft is moving. (Reporting from Sumedha Mukherjee, Bengaluru. Editing by Joe Bavier & William Mallard.
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Thirteen die in tourist plane crash over Peru's Nazca Lines
Authorities in Nazca Province said that a?small tourist aircraft crashed Saturday while flying over the 'Nazca lines archaeological site' in southern Peru. Thirteen people were killed. In a press release, the Peruvian Ministry of Commerce and Tourism stated that 11 foreign tourists and 2 crew members were aboard. Local authorities reported that the plane crashed near Pueblo Viejo. This is approximately 6 km (4miles) away from the city of Nazca, and about 12 km (7miles) from Nazca Lines. Local authorities reported that the small plane was owned by the local Peruvian carrier Aerodiana and took off from Pisco Airport. The company did not respond to requests for comment. According to reports from the local press, it happened at 12:55?pm. The plane was on a sightseeing flight at the time and was preparing to return. According to RPP, the Peruvian radio station, after the crash, a fire broke out in the plane, rendering any rescue efforts impossible. Firefighters, police officers and municipal officials were sent to put out the fire and begin initial rescue operations. Local authorities have said that they will conduct an investigation to determine the cause of this crash. Social media footage shared showed what appeared to be the wreckage of a small aircraft on an arid landscape. I was unable independently to verify the footage. Nazca Lines are a series of geometric and huge drawings etched in the desert plains of southern Peru. They attract around 100,000 tourists annually. The Nazca Lines are usually viewed from small aircraft that fly over the site. The Nazca 'lines were suspended Friday because of winds above 40 kph, which caused dust to be blown around and reduced visibility. Local media reported that strong winds forced two small planes carrying Peruvian tourists, and six other aircraft carrying foreigners to divert their flights to Marcona Airport.
Search for missing 28 after fire on ferry in Madura Island, Indonesia
Officials in Indonesia continue to search for the 28 people who are still missing after a ferry caught on fire near?Indonesia?s Madura Island, according to an official.
Authorities had reported that the KM Mutiara Sentosa, which was carrying 271 'passengers', was traveling from Indonesia's second-largest?city of Surabaya in East Java province, to Makassar in South Sulawesi when it caught fire.
Madura Island is located just off the northeastern coast Java.
Arman Asmara, Director of Marine and Air Affairs at East Java Police, said that 28 of the 271 people on board remain missing. Five confirmed deaths and 238 were rescued.
Arman stated that the Navy and seven boats, as well as a helicopter, were deployed to search for the missing persons.
He added that the'seven boats' deployed included a naval corvette as well as speed boats and a patrol vessel capable of carrying up to 100 passengers.
Rescuers have focused their search in an area that extends 10 miles to the east and 10 miles to the west from the incident.
Arman stated that the search operation could last up to 14 days.
He added that the cause of the accident is still unclear.
On?Monday, all the victims were evacuated from the Port of Gapura Surya Nusantara to Surabaya.
Since Sunday evening, the families of the victims have been waiting in the port. Ria was one of the families who were waiting for news about her uncle.
She said: "I tried contacting continuously after I received the information, but his 'cellphone was not working. Then I called his wife to ensure that my uncle was aboard the ship and it was true."
She added, "I've never been able contact him and find out his condition until now."
Indonesia, a country of 17,000 islands, is heavily reliant on ferries for transportation. Sea routes are more accessible and affordable than air travel.
Safety standards aren't always enforced and accidents happen quite often. Reporting by Ananda Teresia and Prasto Waroyo from Jakarta, Surabaya respectively; editing by David Stanway
(source: Reuters)