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Traders say that Novorossiysk's disruptions will cause a drop in Russia's west oil exports in September.
Two industry sources have told? that disruptions in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk are continuing to reduce shipments. Sources said that loadings at Novorossiysk will remain under pressure, after they collapsed in August due to repeated Ukrainian drone strikes, which increased the shortage of tankers available and increased loading delays. The Black Sea region has become a strategic chokepoint in international trade, with a sharp increase in attacks against vessels, ports, and export terminals. This has impacted the global oil supply chain and limited Moscow's options for export. Sources said that oil exports to western Russian ports will fall by 5% on a daily basis in September compared with?August. According to trader data, the exports and transit volumes of Novorossiysk have more than halved from July to August due to drone strikes. They went from 800,000 bpd down to less than 355,000 bpd. Chartering a Suezmax, which is capable of carrying 140,000 tons of crude oil, to India from Novorossiysk cost around $20 million by the end of August. This was the highest price in many years. It had been $13 million just a month before. Shipowners are reluctant to send their vessels to the port due to increased?security risk. According to one source, the cargoes in the August tanker programme are largely carried over into the September schedule. This makes it difficult to assess the port's overall export outlook. Sources said that the planned crude loadings in 'September will remain largely unchanged from August levels. The volume of Kazakh transit crude shipments that Russia is rerouting to Novorossiysk from the Baltic port Ust-Luga is a key uncertainty. Russia has been redirecting some Kazakh crude oil exports to Novorossiysk in order to free capacity at Ust-Luga to allow for additional Russian crude imports. Sources claim that the terminal capacity constraint will limit the ability to increase crude shipments in September from Russia's Baltic port, and any additional drone attacks may alter the export volume. A drone attacked Ust-Luga on Tuesday. However, no damage was reported to the oil infrastructure.
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Maguire: A US energy dashboard that tracks price drivers, demand and output.
In the months to come, U.S. energy markets will be closely monitored due to new geopolitical tensions with Iran and the accelerating demand for power in data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. These forces require that we track not just crude oil and gasoline prices but also fuel production in the U.S., as well as inventories, power costs, and other factors. Changes in any of these indicators can have a rapid impact on households and businesses. They may affect inflation, economic activity, and overall growth. Below is a chart that shows the main trends in the U.S. Energy landscape. PRICING POWER This dashboard gives a general overview of the major energy costs that U.S. businesses and consumers face. Crude oil is largely influenced by geopolitical and global supply-demand trends. Gasoline, diesel, and electricity prices show how these trends are passed on to the transportation industry, households, and industries. The combination of all four indicators can provide an early indicator of changes in energy market conditions as well as inflation pressures. FUEL FIXATION Gasoline is the most popular transportation fuel in the United States. It has a direct effect on consumer spending and sentiment. The balance between supply and demand can be determined by changes in refinery outputs, fuel inventories, and pump prices, particularly during periods of high driving when the lack of supplies can lead to higher prices. Diesel fuel is often seen as the engine that drives the U.S. economic system. Diesel fuel is used to power most long-haul trucks, rail freight and agricultural equipment, as well as heavy machinery in the construction and industrial industries. Monitoring diesel production and inventories can provide a real-time measure of economic activity and supply chain conditions. It also helps identify inflation risks, as higher diesel prices can increase transportation and distribution costs across the economy. GAS POWER Natural gas is the most important fuel for U.S. electricity generation and also one of the fastest-growing commodities exported by the U.S. Monitoring production, LNG exports, LNG storage levels and prices can provide insight on whether the rising demand at home and abroad is being met by a sufficient supply. This has implications for electricity rates, industrial competitiveness, and energy security. ELECTRIC CHARGES Power prices are becoming an important?indicator of the economy as electricity demand is increasing from data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. Monitor costs for residential, commercial, and industrial users to determine which sectors bear the most burden of rising energy demands and infrastructure investments. It is important to keep track of the changes in electricity prices, fuel demand, and emission trends. Understanding how electricity is generated is increasingly important as the power demand?increases. The rapid growth in natural gas, solar and wind generation, along with the decline of coal, has reshaped U.S. energy markets and changed the fuel mix needed to meet the rising electricity demand. Overall, at a time when geopolitical conflicts can quickly alter global fuel supply and rising electricity consumption is reshaping the domestic energy consumption patterns, it has become important to have a broad perspective on the U.S. Energy System. These indicators can be used to detect changes in the direction of the economy, inflation and business activity. These are the opinions of?the writer, a columnist at. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Saudi Aramco, Sonatrach and Sonatrach increase LPG prices in September
Saudi Arabian state oil producer Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of liquefied petroleum gas by between 1% and 3% in September, traders reported on Tuesday. This was due to a higher demand for the product on global markets. Algeria's Sonatrach raised LPG prices between 4%-7% for September, according to traders. Saudi Aramco’s September OSPs have increased by $5 per metric tonne to $625. For propane, the price has been reduced by $20 per ton up to $660. Butane is a good alternative. LPG comes in two types: Propane (also known as butane) and propane. Both have different boiling points. LPG is used primarily as a fuel for cars and heating, but also?as feedstock for other chemicals. Sonatrach has increased its September OSP for propane by $20 per ton, to $560 For?butane?, the price per ton has increased by $40 to $610 . The OSPs of Saudi Aramco are used?as a reference?for contracts?to supply LPG?from the Middle East to?the Asia-Pacific region. Sonatrach OSPs are used as benchmarks in the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions, including Turkey.
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Germany to blame Russia for airport drone attack
Two sources told Reuters that Germany was preparing to 'blame Russia' for an attempted drone strike on a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at the Leipzig/Halle airport in August. The country could also prepare new sanctions in coordination with its allies against Moscow. Airport workers found a drone with explosives and detonator. The airport is an important NATO logistics and civilian freight hub in eastern Germany, and also the base for several huge Ukrainian Antonov An-124 aircraft. Germany did not blame?Russia before, but it called the incident a part of an hybrid war waged against Europe. After the invasion of Ukraine, 2022, relations between Russia and the West broke down. Two sources, who requested anonymity, confirmed that reports in German media indicated that the German government could impose new sanctions on Russia. The sources did not reveal any details about the proposed sanctions. Johann Wadephul, the Foreign Minister of Algeria, did not confirm all reports made on Tuesday during a trip to Algeria. However he indicated that new measures were being considered against Russia. He will hold a joint press conference with Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt when he returns to Germany on Tuesday. Wadephul stated that "there is no overreaction from our side, but we do respond when attacked." "Russia must realize that Germany is an important stabilizing force in Europe -?one which is always willing to negotiate, but won't be intimidated by anyone." The Russian Embassy did not immediately comment on the matter, but has dismissed allegations?about possible Russian involvement in Germany as "fabricated provocations" and "a new wave anti-Russian hatred in Germany". European intelligence officials have been monitoring what they call Russian sabotage in Europe, aimed at weakening NATO unity and member states' willingness to support Ukraine against Russian aggression. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann of Germany, chairwoman of the European Parliament's Committee on Security and Defence called on Russia to be identified as the mastermind in the attack. She said, "I think?we should call a spade by its name and admit that Russia?is behind this." She said that it was not appropriate to describe such incidents as hybrid attacks, as they are "actual attacks".
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Deep-sea Team joins Search for Missing in Cyprus Ferry Disaster
A Turkish specialist team equipped with deep-water search equipment began work on Tuesday in order to locate the wreckage of the ferry that capsized on Sunday off Northern Cyprus, leaving 20 people missing. Eight people were killed when the twin-hulled vessel began taking in water shortly after it left the port of Kyrenia. It had 267 passengers on board. The Turkish navy's rescue vessel has a remotely controlled vehicle that can search deep waters where the ferry went down, four nautical miles off the coast. This was just minutes after the ship set off to the town of Tasucu, in the province of Mersin, Turkey. "Once the wreck has been identified, salvage operations at a depth of approximately 500 metres (1.640 feet) will commence. Detailed search and investigation activities will also be conducted... using an remotely operated vehicle," Major Ulas Cesur, commander of TCG Isin, said. Boats picked up survivors who had clung to a part of the overturned boat's hull to get to safety. Social media footage showed people trapped in one compartment while others perched on the tip of boat, waiting for assistance. Children are among the missing. The cause of this 'disaster' is still under investigation. However, Turkish Cypriot officials said that the vessel was in possession of a valid certificate for seaworthiness. Witnesses said that the wide-bodied catamaran was violently lurching before crashing into water. The impact tore open a part of its bow. Nine people involved in the vessel's operation were placed under police custody on Monday for three days.
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US officials claim that Chinese shipper COSCO is collecting intel for Beijing using concealed equipment.
Two senior Trump administration officials have said that COSCO, China's state owned shipping company, uses hidden equipment on board its ships to spy?on military communications near the coasts of target countries including?the United States?. The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the U.S. assessment of the Chinese program, said COSCO has a decades-long intelligence-collection partnership with Beijing. They said that the arrangement allowed China to collect communications signals from ships and aircraft in Europe, North America, and Asia. One official said that the advanced equipment aboard the vessels is designed to allow China to gather information on "military communication technologies and encryption development", Officials added that the?effort allows Beijing to monitor important shipping lanes and routes vital for trade and military navigation. COSCO has not responded to a request for comment. Meanwhile, the Chinese Embassy in Washington has rejected U.S. allegations. U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping are planning to meet at a Washington summit in the coming weeks. They will discuss a variety of sensitive trade and security issues. Officials did not specify the equipment COSCO ships allegedly used, but stated that they were "sophisticated platforms for signals intelligence collection", not standard communications hardware. Beijing, they said, uses the information to strengthen its 'position in territorial disputes' and provides maritime reconnaissance? and early-warning indicators of foreign military targets. The Chinese Embassy in Washington stated that the Chinese government will never ask any individual or company to "collect data, information or foreign intelligence against local laws". Liu Chang, spokesperson for the embassy in Beijing, said: "We are against vilifying China and peddling the 'intelligence gathering' narrative which is completely baseless." ALLEGED LINKS BETWEEN THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT, SHIPPERS AND OTHERS The U.S. published a report in April 2025. The Naval War College said in April 2025 that it was likely China's People's Liberation Army was using the country's commercial and fishing fleets to gather intelligence and surveillance. In January 2025, the Pentagon placed COSCO on a list of Chinese military companies. This designation carries with it serious reputational risks for companies and?U.S. Government procurement bans are imposed, but do not carry formal sanctions. Chinese law obliges companies to assist in government intelligence. COSCO is still one of the top global shipping companies that call at U.S. port and it has several joint ventures with terminal service providers for container ships in U.S. port. Last year, the Trump administration planned to impose billions of dollars in port fees on Chinese shipping firms, including COSCO. This was to revive the U.S. shipbuilding and maritime industries, which had atrophied. The plan was halted after Trump and Xi reached an agreement in October last year for a one-year detente on the trade war. The agreement expires on November 30th, and it is expected that a possible extension will be discussed in September's talks between the two leaders. Isaac Kardon is an expert on Chinese maritime strategy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He said that the U.S. Government would have difficulty addressing security concerns, given how COSCO's trade with the U.S. is intertwined. Kardon stated that removing COSCO from our supply chains and transportation networks could be a life-threatening operation for U.S. trading networks.
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Texas's decision to stop powering data centres reflects US reckoning with 'ghost demand'
The demand for electricity by data centers in the middle of the United States is roughly equivalent to the amount needed to power all homes across the country. However, much of this demand could be an illusion. Texas, in an effort to determine what is true, became the first major hub for data?centers to freeze new grid connection and investigate their plans. In an effort to solve the problem, other states in the U.S. are also taking similar measures. The review of utility data and grid data revealed that the electricity demands of very large power consumers, mainly data centers, exceeded 700 gigawatts, or more than ten times the industry's estimates of current U.S. Data Center Power Use, across parts of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. Consumer advocates and regulators warned that many requests were likely to be duplicates or made by companies that lacked the funding or expertise to complete the projects. This could stymie grid-planning, which is vital to keep the lights on. Some of these warnings have now been validated. Major utilities are now reducing their data center demand numbers once financial safeguards like requiring upfront payment are in place. Data center hotspots like Texas, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are enacting rules to filter projects that may drive up costs and cause political backlash before they even get built. Thomas Gleeson, Chairman of the Texas Public Utility Commission in March, said that if you don't have a clear understanding of what's real you can't build an infrastructure to support it. GHOST DEMAND Companies and landowners with access to electricity or grid connections rushed to take advantage of the Big Tech AI data center boom. They secured electricity needed to run these facilities. According to grid operator ERCOT documents and Governor Greg Abbott's statements, since 2023 the requests for data centers and large energy users to be connected to the Texas grid has soared to over 474 gigawatts. This makes it the fastest growing region in the world for AI and cloud servers warehouses. According to the most recent quarterly earnings calls of utilities, outside of Texas, the data center electricity demands in 10 of the largest U.S. utility companies in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, as well as the U.S. South have reached?270 gigawatts. Utility companies do not have a standard way of reporting requests for electricity from Data Centers. Some only report projects with signed contracts, while others tally all inquiries. However, when states and utilities take a closer look at data centre electricity projects and implement requirements such as large upfront deposits, a chunk of this demand can disappear. "Entities that rushed in because it was a pot of gold are now perhaps learning the hard-way just how difficult this is to construct and bring online," Daniel Farris said, an attorney with Foley & Lardner who advises hyperscalers and data center developers. These companies include Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, and Microsoft. Exelon, based in Chicago, has reduced its high-probability demand for data centers by 40% to 11 gigawatts. The company announced this on July 30th during an investor presentation after it began imposing more stringent collateral requirements. The Ohio electric utility AEP Ohio saw its data center power demand drop by over half after state regulations adopted last year included grid connection fees up to $100,000 for data centers. According to Tyson Slocum, Director of the Energy Program of consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, the uncertainty surrounding data center electricity usage raises the possibility that utilities will either underbuild and endanger the grid's stability, or overbuild in order to accommodate projects that may never be realized, leaving the average American with the bill. Slocum stated, "I believe part of what Texas is trying to achieve is creating some order and imposing some transparency on an industry in many parts of the country that is still like Wild West." PJM Interconnection - the nation's largest grid, which covers 13 states including Data Center Alley, Virginia - has already seen costs increase due to electricity requests from data centers. According to Monitoring Analytics, the increase in data center costs was due to the growth in demand for existing and future centers. Even though utilities have drastically reduced demand forecasts, there are still enough data center requests that can overwhelm grids with limited supplies. Jeff Shields, PJM's spokesman, said: "The load is showing and the generation is not moving at a pace that we require." Auditing the Unknown Abbott's Texas order includes a comprehensive audit that requires that all proposals for powering up data centers disclose who owns them, as opposed to the previous rules which only allowed an affiliate to be disclosed. Gleeson will chair the state Public Utility Commission and ERCOT, the grid operator, are responsible for implementing this directive. The directive also requests details on whether or not data center projects depend on taxpayer-funded incentive programs, water usage and on-site energy generation plans. Abbott, in an update to his order, said that "the PUCT and the ERCOT can't make decisions to guarantee grid reliability and stability based on information that is substantially incomplete." Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has made a similar decision. His state's abundant natural gas and electricity have attracted a lot of interest in data centers. Shapiro signed an executive order for data centers on 18 August that included stricter requirements regarding permits and disclosures of plans and users of projects exceeding 25 megawatts. A member of the Governor's Office said that only 20 data centers in the state have applied for the permits required to advance the projects. The official stated that most proposals did not have power sources or customers who would be crucial to the funding of server warehouses.
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The oil boom in the Americas will last longer than the Iran conflict
Oil producers in the Americas, from Canada to Argentina have benefited during the Iran War by regaining market share that Middle Eastern exporters lost. This renewed focus on global energy security could turn this emergency response into an enduring?structural shift. Since the Iran War and the closing of the 'Strait of Hormuzsix month ago, a fifth of world?oil supply was disrupted. This is the biggest shift in global energy landscape in decades. The Hormuz shutdown immediately caused a scramble for Middle Eastern barrels to be replaced. The Americas emerged as the main beneficiary. According to Kpler, crude exports in the region, which stretches from Canada to Argentina, are at a record high of 11,7 million barrels per daily (bpd). This is up from 10,3 million bpd, and almost double what they were a decade earlier. Brazil is second with 2.5 million bpd, while the U.S. exports average 4.4 million bpd. Asia has taken in most of the extra crude oil from the Americas. Imports from the Western Hemisphere into the continent have risen since the Iran War began. They are expected to reach a new record of 5.4 million barrels per day in August compared with a 4 million bpd average in 2025. The diversification of the economy was not planned, but rather a result of necessity. The shock has revealed the dangers of an over-dependence on Middle Eastern supply. The lesson of Asia's past wars may last a long time. Even if Gulf?exports recover eventually, Asian importers may want to avoid becoming overly reliant on any one region - particularly one with high conflict risk and vulnerable maritime chokepoints. It is more costly to source a greater share of crude oil from the Western Hemisphere because Gulf crude?retains an advantage in terms of geography. This cost is increasingly seen as a premium for future geopolitical disruption. AMERICAS ASCENTANT The remarkable increase in oil and natural gas production in the Americas during the last decade has made this shift possible. The U.S. Shale Revolution, which has transformed the global oil market and made America the largest producer of oil in 2018, surpassing Saudi Arabian and Russian production, was the primary driver for the expansion. U.S. oil production reached a record high of 21,000,000 bpd by 2025. This accounted for a quarter of the global output. Other countries have also seen a significant increase in production. According to the IEA Brazil will reach a record 4.3m bpd by 2026. This is an increase of 480,000 bpd over last year. Canada, meanwhile, continues to increase its oil-sands production capacity. Guyana has become one of the fastest growing producers in the world, while Argentina continues to increase output from its Vaca Muerta shale, which is one of the biggest unconventional resources outside North America. In 2027, the combined North American and Latin American oil production will average 30.5 millions bpd, while Latin American oil output is expected to reach 9.3 million. According to IEA figures, this would be a 50% increase for the region in the last decade. North America and the region have spent many years developing production capacities, export terminals, shipping infrastructure, and pipelines. The Middle East crisis has come at the perfect time for oil producers in many ways. The MATCH IS MADE IN HORMUZ Hormuz has provided a unique opportunity for these suppliers. Asia is largely responsible for this shift. The Americas account for 30% of the global seaborne crude oil exports. The Americas won't replace Middle Eastern suppliers in Asia completely, but they could continue to erode their market share. Since decades, Asia has imported Middle Eastern oil because of its proximity. The transit time for a tanker from Brazil to Japan can be up to 60 days, which is about three times the time it takes to travel from the Gulf. These longer journeys tie up fleets and increase freight demand, as well as shipping costs. Tanker rates have risen as crude oil has taken the long way to Asia. According to LSEG, rates for a VLCC carrying 2,000,000 barrels reached a record-high of $640,000 per 'day. This is more than three times the pre-war level. Asian refiners are willing to accept higher transport costs for energy security. In a volatile world, distance may not matter as much as reliability. Few producing regions can compete with the Americas in terms of offering a variety of crude grades. You can find them. You can find them. You can get them. These are becoming more abundant. The Americas can't replace the Middle East because it has much larger reserves and lower production costs. What began as a temporary reaction to the Iran War is now looking more like a permanent realignment in global oil trade, one that may last long after missiles cease flying over the Gulf. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
German police investigate an unexploded incendiary at Brandenburg's power substation
A spokesperson for the German police confirmed that they are investigating an incident on Tuesday at a power substation in Brandenburg's eastern region involving an unexploded explosive device.
Grid operator 50Hertz stated that "unidentified perpetrators" are believed to be responsible for damage to several power lines on 50Hertz's transmission grid. The device was not detonated, so it is not clear how the damage was caused.
The operator said in an email that there was a brief 'power cut' but that 'all power lines have now been restored and the electricity supply has not been affected.
The spokesperson stated that the police received information on the incident around 8 am (0600 GMT) and sent officers to the?substation? in Turnow Preilack. The police said there was never any danger to the public.
Brandenburg's state criminal police office has taken on the investigation of the alleged incident.
(source: Reuters)