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The oil markets have survived the Iran War sprint. Bousso: Now the marathon.
The expansion of the Mideast conflict to Yemen and the drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline are a painful reminder that the Iran War is not a temporary energy shock but rather a long-term, unpredictable test of economic endurance. The markets are now adjusting to a new, more volatile phase in the conflict. Many of the safeguards which cushioned the initial blow seven months ago, have vanished. Last week, Donald Trump, the president of the United States, predicted that the conflict will end only when the midterm elections in the U.S. are held on November 3. Midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. The tone has changed dramatically from the initial suggestion by the administration that war would only last a few weeks and not even months. It is impossible to tell if this new forecast will prove correct, but recent events at two of the most important energy routes in the world suggest that it could be very optimistic. The Gate of Tears Houthis, who are allied with Iran in Yemen, have made rapid progress over the last week. They now hold the Bab el-Mandeb Strait near the southern entrance of the Red Sea. The group, which announced a blockade on the shipping route last July, has stated that all ships except those owned by Saudi Arabia are safe to transit. Saudi authorities reported that a series of attacks by drones launched from Iraq temporarily closed Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipe, the kingdom's primary alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by the conflict in February, the 1,200-kilometre (745 mile) pipeline has become critical to the kingdom. Saudi Arabia offset some of its losses by increasing west coast oil exports to between 4 and 5 million barrels a day (bpd) during the first five month of the conflict. This is equivalent to about 4% to 5% global oil supply. Kpler?data reports that shipments in August fell to 2 million bpd, the lowest level since January. This was largely due to the Houthi Blockade. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports that the output of what was once the largest oil exporter in the world fell to 6,000,000 bpd, the lowest in over 30 years, in August. Satellite images suggest that at least one pumping stations was damaged, but the extent of damage and timeline for repairs are still unclear. Saudi Arabia can also draw from stored crude oil to compensate for any disruption in pipeline flow. This could take several days. This escalation is occurring at a very dangerous time. Running Dry The disruption of Middle East oil exports, which made up around a fifth (or more) of the global supply before the war, has dramatically eroded world stocks. According to the IEA, inventories have dropped by 507,000,000 barrels or roughly 2.8million bpd since the war began. The fact that more crude oil has left Hormuz recently than in the beginning of the war is largely due to more vessels using the route along Oman’s coast, under U.S. Navy surveillance. Kpler estimates that around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and refinery products have been shipped through the Strait since June. This is a quarter less than pre-war levels. However, the actual figure could be higher, as many ships turn off their navigational systems while transiting. Last week, Iranian attacks on more than a dozen oil tankers trying to transit the Gulf or cross Hormuz were a reminder of how dangerous transits can be. This status quo cannot continue. Middle East is the largest energy producing region in the entire world. It may be possible to reduce crude oil exports from the Gulf for a couple of months, but not forever. According to IEA estimations, refineries like diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline have suffered far more than crude oil, with exports remaining 60% below their pre-war level. Diesel in particular has been severely affected, with prices reaching record highs. Saudi Arabian Red Sea exports are also under pressure, which would increase global inventory levels. The latest flare-up may also lead to a reduction in the ship traffic through Hormuz. The fear of entering conflict zones is still a factor for tanker operators. Insurance and freight costs are at an all-time high, and naval escorts only mitigate the risks to a certain extent. Different tones How long can these market dynamics last? Iran's leadership sees the conflict as an existential threat and is therefore motivated to exert maximum economic pressure both on the U.S. economy and on the global economy before any negotiations. Washington's "increasingly strict" blockade on Iranian oil exports has caused severe economic damage to the Islamic Republic, increasing the cost of continuing the conflict indefinitely. Temporarily, the Houthi attacks and advances on Saudi infrastructure could temporarily shift momentum back to Tehran. These competing pressures may eventually bring both parties to the table for negotiations. They could also encourage both sides to continue fighting, hoping that their bargaining positions will be strengthened by economic or military gains. Markets assumed that Trump would find a way out of the gridlock once rising gas prices and political costs became too painful. This outcome was dependent on Tehran's?willingness to cooperate. It has so far shown little willingness to do so. U.S. policymakers, traders and investors may have adapted to a conflict which appears manageable. If the war continues for several more months as Trump has suggested, there is a risk that the market will be left with fewer shock-absorbing devices. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Trump will review requests to release additional 9/11 records
On 'Sunday, U.S. president Donald Trump said that he would consider the request of relatives of those who died in the 9/11 attacks for more information about the attack and whether the perpetrators were linked to Saudi Arabia. He told reporters before boarding the plane to return to the U.S. that he would "look at it" when he returned. Families of 9/11 victims have been calling for the declassification of other?records relating to?the events. New York legislators from both parties have asked the Trump administration to release some phone records. This is one of our best chances to get this information out," U.S. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis told ABC News in a recent interview. "I think that hopefully, we'll be seeing this level of transparency from the current administration." New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani released to the public 170,000 pages of documents related to air quality, health concerns, and the city's response to recent attacks.
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Trump says US can stay in Iran to keep oil like Venezuela deal
Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the United States might "keep" oil in Iran, drawing a parallel with the U.S. effort to seize a fifth Venezuela's vast reserves of oil. He said that on a trip to Ireland to attend meetings and watch golf he still "expected" the Iran War to end this coming year. This could be just before the midterm elections in the United States due in November. Trump said that gasoline prices would drop "like a rock" when the Iran War ended. Oil traders expect prices to increase again on Monday following an attack on Saudi oil pipeline. Trump stated that he will only do the "right deal", and not one that is "no good". He also said that Iran "constantly" calls for peace talks, a claim that Tehran has rejected in the past. The president did introduce another option, however: "stay engaged with Iran." He made a comparison with the August deal announced by the United States in Venezuela. Trump added that "we'll eventually get out" of Iran unless we decide to stay in the country and keep the oil, like Venezuela. The revenue from Venezuela "paid for the war many times."
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Saudi shares drop after drone attacks target key oil pipeline
Saudi Arabian stocks fell in the early trading on Sunday as a result of 'the market's reaction to drone attacks' on the Kingdom's East-West crude oil pipeline. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index fell?1.0%. This was due to a 0.8% decline in Al Rajhi Bank, and a 2.4% drop in Saudi Arabian Mining Company. Saudi Aramco, the oil giant, fell 1.1%. Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company plummeted 7.3% and was the worst performer of this session. The sale 'followed an emergency shutdown of the East West pipeline on Thursday after aerial strikes 'hit installations in the Riyadh region and Medina, causing multiple injuries. Riyadh as well as?Baghdad both traced the attack back to Iraqi territory where Iran-backed militias are active, leading the Iraqi Government to dismiss a senior military leader on Saturday. Saudi Arabia did not immediately retaliate militarily after an appeal from Iraq's Prime Minister, but Riyadh defended its right to protect its sovereignty and vital infrastructure. The U.S. president Donald Trump blamed Iran on Saturday for the attacks on the conduit. This is the primary alternative that the Kingdom uses to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, previous attacks on Saudi energy facilities had reduced crude production by 2.3 million barrels per day to a low of 6 millions bpd for three decades. Qatar's benchmark Index, which is a measure of the petrochemical industry, rose 0.2%, bucking the regional trend. The Financial Times reported that Gulf foreign ministers will meet with their Iranian counterparts in an effort to reach an interim agreement on traffic management through the Strait of Hormuz.
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Authorities say it could take several months to identify the victims of the Philippine ferry fire.
On Sunday, authorities in the Philippines warned that it may take several weeks or months to identify victims of a ferry fire in which 76 people died. As forensic experts collect and compare DNA samples taken from the charred remains, investigators are determining what caused the worst maritime disaster in recent history in the Philippines. Richard Allan Mangalip, a forensic expert with the Philippine National Police said that some remains were clustered in certain areas of the vessel. Others were spread out across the ship. The vessel was carrying over 130 people, and it was nearing its destination at the time of the fire. The ferry headed southwest from Manila, to Coron in the province of Palawan, a journey that usually takes around 20 hours. Mangalip, at a recent press conference, said that "most of them are already charred." He added that authorities could not give a timeline for identification due to the large number of specimens which must be examined. It could take a few weeks or even longer. This assessment was made a day after the rescuers found 41 more remains on the ferry. The death toll now stands at 76, and 13 people are still missing. Officials stated that more remains may still be discovered because investigators haven't yet thoroughly searched the flooded sections of vessel. On Friday, firefighters entered the ferry after putting out the blaze a day and a half after it started. The Coast Guard released images showing the extent of the damage inside the ship, including rows of bed frames that were twisted and covered with ash by intense heat. Investigators have not yet determined where the fire began and are still working to gain access to key areas of the vessel including the flooded lower decks, the engine room and other sections where evidence may help determine the cause. According to a statement by the Maritime Industry Authority based on survivor 'accounts', two explosions could be heard within the vessel just before the fire started. A representative from shipowner Atienza inter-Island ferry said at the same press conference that the 'company is cooperating fully with the investigators and will continue to assist affected families. The fire is just the latest in a series of maritime accidents that have killed people in the Philippines. This archipelago has more than 7,600 island, and millions of people rely on small boats and ferries to travel.
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The PM's Office says that one person has died and more than 30 people are missing after a Vanuatu Ferry sinks.
In a statement, the office of Prime Minister Jotham napat said that at least one person had been confirmed dead on Sunday and that more than 30 others were still missing after a boat sank off Vanuatu. The statement on Facebook stated that search and rescue operations are continuing in the Pacific Island Nation located approximately 1,750 km (1.090 miles east of Australia) after the MV Matui, with its crew and passengers, went down. It added that 15 of them were alive. RNZ, the New Zealand public broadcaster, reported that search efforts had begun since Friday's inter-island boat sank due to bad weather between the islands of Ambae & Santo. The Napat office stated that the search in open waters was being lowered, while efforts were shifted?towards a search of?the south east coast where currents could have carried survivors. The statement stated that "this loss appears to have been caused by strong winds, failure to heed marine warnings and possible negligence such as overloading the vessel." We pray for the?strength of those who survived and their recovery. Please know that we are with the families of the missing and the ones who have died in this time. Matai Seremaiah is the representative for the Luganville region in Vanuatu’s parliament. He said that rescue efforts began after a crew member of the MV Matui swam to shore and raised the alarm. Seremaiah told RNZ that he alerted them to the fact that the ship had capsized. They went on a search. Vanuatu 'police, Vanuatu Maritime Safety Authority, and the ferry operator, Tui Shipping Agency did not respond immediately to requests for comments.
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Agency reports that 243 passengers from an Indonesian passenger ship have been reported missing at sea.
The Indonesian search and rescue agency reported that a passenger ship carrying 243 passengers was reported as'missing' after it lost contact in the Java Sea during bad weather early Sunday morning. The 'Virgo Transport 8' ship left the East Java town of Surabaya on Saturday for the South Kalimantan City of Banjarmasin, but lost contact. The agency stated that "at the time of this statement, it is not possible to contact the ship and its location is unknown." The agency said that rescuers had launched a search and sent a team to its last-known position. Indonesia is an archipelago consisting of over 17,000 islands. It relies heavily on ferries for transportation. Sea routes are more affordable and accessible than air travel. Safety?standards may not be?always strictly enforced, leading to a high accident rate.
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The PM's Office says that one person has died and more than 30 people are missing after a Vanuatu Ferry sinks.
In a statement, the office of Prime Minister Jotham Napat said that at least one person had been confirmed dead and more than 30 others were missing after a boat sank near Vanuatu. The statement on Facebook said that search and rescue operations are continuing in the Pacific Island Nation located approximately 1,750 km (1.090 miles east of Australia) after the MV Matui with its crew and passengers went down. It added that 15 of them were alive. RNZ, the public broadcaster of New Zealand, reported that search efforts had begun since Friday's inter-island?ferry sank between the islands Ambae and Santo in bad weather. The Napat office stated that the search was "being eased while efforts are being moved towards a search along South-East coast where currents could have carried survivors". The statement said that "this loss appears to be the result of not heeding marine warnings and strong winds, as well as possible negligence including overloading the vessel." "We pray for the strength and recovery of those who survived." "Please know that we stand with the families of the'missing' and those who have died," it added. The Vanuatu Police, the Vanuatu Maritime Safety Authority, and the 'ferry operator Tui Shipping Agency did not respond immediately to comments.
Indonesian rescuers are still searching for 129 missing people after a passenger ship capsized.
An official said on Monday that more than 600 Indonesian rescuers are searching for 129 people still missing, after a passenger vessel capsized in the Java Sea at the weekend. The death toll remains the same, at six.
Rescue agency reported that the Virgo transport 8 ship, which was carrying 243 passengers, went missing early Sunday morning due to bad weather. The authorities have rescued 108 passengers from the ship that was traveling from Surabaya, East Java, to Banjarmasin, South Kalimantan.
We have been searching for the missing ever since early morning. "We are deploying around 12 ships and 622 personnel," I Putu?Sudayana told reporters.
As of Monday, the six-person death toll had not increased.
A large ship painted red and black lies partially submerged, capsized, in rough blue water. The red underside of the ship is visible.
In rough waters, two small boats carrying people were seen floating close to the capsized vessel.
Edy Prakoso said that the ship leaning heavily to the starboard side was caused by strong waves hitting the starboard'side.
Transport Minister Dudy Purwagandhi stated that the cause of the capsize is still under investigation.
Indonesia uses ferries to travel between its 17,000 islands. Sea travel is more affordable and accessible than flying, but there have been many accidents.
Two ferries, each carrying hundreds of passengers, caught fire in the water last month. Five people were killed when a boat caught fire near Madura Island, and one person was killed in an accident on a ferry leaving Bali.
(source: Reuters)