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JetBlue increases its third-quarter fuel forecast
JetBlue Airways is expecting to pay more for fuel during the third quarter, as the 'Iran War' keeps prices high and demand strong. The carrier announced on Thursday that it expected to pay $3.96 for a gallon of fuel during the third quarter. This is up from its previous forecast of $3.49. In premarket trading, its?shares fell by about 1%. U.S. and Israeli war against Iran has pushed fuel prices up, increasing?costs to airlines around the world. JetBlue said on Thursday that weather and air traffic disruptions, especially in the Northeastern U.S. in July and August have led to an increase in cancellations. However, the carrier said that healthy booking trends "continued" into September, both during peak and off-peak periods. The airline expects revenue per seat mile to rise between 17% and 80% in the third quarter compared to its previous forecast of a 12.5% - 16.5% increase, based on higher ticket prices and travel demand.
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Why is Bab el-Mandeb Strait important?
The Houthis, backed by Iran, are trying to take control of the entire Yemeni Red Sea Coast. This would give them more leverage?over Bab el-Mandeb Strait - one of the most contested and busy global?maritime chokes. The militant group already declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia, which is the largest oil exporter in the world. Houthi control over the Bab El-Mandeb would further isolate Gulf oil producers from their main shipping routes. WHERE IS BAB EL-MANDEB? The strait, also known as the "Gate of Tears" for its treacherous navigation conditions, is situated at the southernmost end of the Red Sea between Yemen and Djibouti on the Arabian Peninsula. It is located on the other side of the peninsula from the Strait of Hormuz which was a major focal point during the U.S. - Iran war. At its narrowest, the waterway measures 18 miles (29 kilometers) in width. This limits traffic to only two channels, one for inbound and another for outbound shipments. The channel is divided by Perim, an island in Yemen (also known as Mayyun in Arabic). The Hanish Islands are located to the north, between the port cities Hodeidah & Mocha. This gives whoever controls these islands a commanding view of approaching vessels. Hodeidah is controlled by the Houthis, who have used it as a base to launch a broader campaign against Red Sea shipping. The militant group is pushing southward, seizing Mocha - the historic port town?widely considered as the birthplace for the global coffee industry. Dhubab is a city located directly along the Strait, making it an important prize in the Houthis southward advance. To control the Strait, it is important to control Dhubab island and Perim. WHICH SHIPMENTS PASS THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB? The Suez Canal is the most important route for shipping goods and commodities from Asia to Europe. The Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea Coast, and commodities headed for Asia including Russian oil, are also transported through the strait. The Suez Canal is the southern gateway to the Suez Canal. This means that ships from the south must go through this?gateway' to get to the canal. The disruption of shipping in the Strait of Gibraltar forces vessels to reroute their voyage around the Cape of Good Hope, in southern Africa. This adds weeks to the journey and costs significant amounts of money. What would HOUTHI CONTROL mean? Even a?partial disruption? of the strait proved to be devastating. In late 2023 the Houthis began a sustained attack on ships in the southern Red Sea, including the Bab el-Mandeb. They claimed that this was in solidarity with Palestinians living in Gaza at the time of the Hamas-Israel conflict. The effects were immediate and widespread. BP and Frontline, as well as major oil companies and shipping firms such Hapag-Lloyd and MSC, rerouted their vessels to circumnavigate the African continent, instead of the Suez Canal. Freight prices?increased and journey times?lengthened considerably. If the Houthis were to impose a stranglehold on the waterway, it could give their Iranian sponsor a crucial advantage in the war against the United States. The United States has already seen an abrupt reduction in energy shipments via the Strait of Hormuz which sent oil prices skyrocketing. Kpler data shows that the total petroleum volume transiting Bab el-Mandeb amounted at about 7% of world oil production in June.
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Algeria cuts diplomatic relations with the UAE
Algerian media reported on Thursday that it had decided to "sever diplomatic ties" with the United Arab Emirates, citing the "exhaustion of every means to maintain bilateral ties". The reason for the decision was not given. The UAE Foreign Ministry didn't?response immediately to an email seeking a comment. Algerian media outlets have criticised the UAE in the past, accusing it of trying to create a rift within the region. Abdelmadjid Tebboune, the Algerian President, said last year that his country's relationship with all Gulf States was warm, except for one. This was a thinly-veiled reference to the UAE. He called the ties between Saudi Arabia, Kuwait Oman, and Qatar "brotherly" and accused an unnamed country of attempting to destabilise Algeria. Algeria started the cancellation of an agreement on air services that had been signed in Abu Dhabi, UAE in May 2013.
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Ryanair CEO: Winter fares could rise after a slight increase
Michael O'Leary, Chief Executive Officer of Ryanair, boosted the airline's forecast for average fares on Thursday. He said they could?rise?slightly?this winter, following a'mild increase' since July. However, this outlook was heavily dependent on oil prices. As oil prices rose, the airline's costs increased. The result was a drop in profit in its last quarter. O'Leary, on Thursday, said that since then, fares have risen "by a very low single digit" percentage year-over-year. O'Leary said at a press conference that there had been a "slight upturn" in the last month. He said it was impossible to determine what caused the increase or if it would continue. Slight Improvement from July Prediction He said that the average fares from July to September for this current quarter will fall by very low single-digit percentages year-on-year. This is an upgrade to his prediction from July that the falls would be closer to low single digits rather than mid-single numbers. O'Leary said in July that winter fares would fall in the low- to mid-single-digit percentage range, but prices could go up or stay flat if competitors reduced capacity in response to rising oil prices. He said that the scenario of a flat to slightly higher price was more likely on Thursday. The oil price will determine a lot in the next few months, but it is not certain. He said that he was "reasonably hopeful" that prices would remain flat or even go slightly up in the second half. The price of oil has risen to $100 per barrel this week as the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran intensified. OIL RISES HIGHER - FARES WILL SOAR SIGNIFICANTLY Ryanair reduced flights from its winter schedule in the first half of this month to cut losses and reduce its exposure to unhedged oil. This resulted in a decrease to its fiscal 2027 target traffic to 214 millions passengers from 216 million. O'Leary stated that if oil prices continue to rise into next year there will be "a significant increase" in airfares. O'Leary said that he believes there is plenty of time between now and Christmas to extend the hedges. Ryanair, one of Europe's most well-hedged carriers, has hedged 80% through March 2027 for fuel at around $67 per barrel and 15% the following year for $85 per barrel.
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Ryanair's O'Leary accuses UK Air Traffic Control boss of lying about outage
Michael O'Leary, the Chief Executive of Ryanair, accused the head of Britain's Air Traffic Control Operator of lying about an outage that led to thousands of canceled flights earlier this week. O'Leary stated that NATS had informed Ryanair that the outage is caused by an errant flight plan. This was the same problem which caused a major disruption to the airline in 2023. NATS CEO Martin Rolfe told BBC Radio that he believes the latest outage was caused by "something else" than previous incidents. O'Leary has called on Rolfe repeatedly to resign. He rejected this explanation. "NATS has?told me it was another rogue plan. O'Leary said that Martin Rolfe has denied it. "I think he is lying to save himself." NATS' investigation into the 2023 -outage revealed that it was caused by an "one in fifteen million" event, in which two identically-named but separate waypoints were included in a flight plan. This forced both the system and the backup into "failsafe" mode. NATS responded to a similar comment made by O'Leary Wednesday. It said that the 'latest outage' was caused by a completely different issue. It did not respond immediately to a comment request on O'Leary's recent remarks. Ryanair has sued NATS at the London High Court for more than PS7 million ($9.5million) in relation to the 2023 outage. The operator is being urged to reinvest the profits into?performance improvement and staffing. Rolfe has been given a week by the government to investigate the latest system failure. Heidi Alexander, the Transport Minister who called Rolfe to a meeting about the incident on Wednesday, said she thought 'the outage could have been avoided and asked Civil Aviation Authority for an independent review.
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State media: At least 20 dead in fire on cargo ship at China shipyard
State media reported that at least '20 people were killed and five more are still missing in an 'incident aboard a foreign cargo ship undergoing repairs?at a government-owned shipyard located in the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao. Xinhua reported that the fire started at around 11:15 a.m. during repairs and inspections at the Qingdao Beihai Shipyard. Twelve of the 42 passengers were evacuated safely and five others were hospitalised. State media reported that the fire was out by early afternoon. A photo of the scene, released by Xinhua, showed?the Ocean Melody as the vessel involved. LSEG'ship-tracking data' identified it as a 20 year old Liberia flag dry bulk carrier, managed by Yuyangkunpeng Shanghai Shp Mgm with Huili Shipping Co Ltd on its list of registered owners. LSEG data shows that the vessel has been at Qingdao Shipyard since August 31, and it is still there. According to Xinhua, Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for increased search and rescue efforts as well as a rapid investigation and accountability measures. China State Shipbuilding Corporation, one of the largest shipbuilders in the world, controls?the shipyard?. CSSC calls itself China's leading naval shipbuilder, and the country's largest designer of ships and offshore gear. On the website of the CSSC owned?Qingdao?unit, a 2022 recruitment notice stated that the?shipyard's annual shipbuilding capability was 3 million deadweight tonnes and it could repair 212 ships a year.
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Maguire, Where global LNG and gas infrastructure is growing
As demand for coal and oil increases due to climate policy, energy efficiency and electrification, natural gas and LNG are the fastest growing markets in the fossil fuel industry. Gas is increasingly being used by governments and utilities to support the 'rising demand for electricity and supply reliable power along with expanding renewable energy sources. This has triggered a global investment wave in pipelines, LNG export and import infrastructure, and gas-fired generators. Eight key charts are shown below that illustrate the regions and countries driving this growth. Power Play Global Energy Monitor data shows that Asia dominates global gas-fired generation capacity, both in use and under construction. Asia's 950,000 megawatts of operational capacity is comparable to the 735,000 MW operating in North America, and it far exceeds the 366,000 MW found in Europe. Asia is currently building an additional 140,000 MW, or more than three times as much power as any other region. The U.S. has the largest gas-fired power plant in the world, with 562,000 MW currently operating, while China is the country with the highest capacity under construction. THE PIPELINE PIPELINE Gas pipelines in the Americas are currently operating at just over 490,000 km (304,471 mi). This total is far greater than the 281,000 km of pipelines in Asia or 262,680 km in Europe. Asia has the largest pipeline capacity currently under construction with 56,000 km. China is the country with the most pipelines, having built nearly 22,000 km, followed by India, which has built nearly 15,000 km. The Footprint for LNG Export The U.S. has the biggest LNG export capacity and is the top producer of gas in the world. However, Asia, with its extensive export infrastructure that stretches from the Middle East to Southeast Asia, ranks first. GEM data indicates that the U.S. has also?the largest LNG export capability under construction. Around 100 million metric tonnes of annual export capacities are currently being built. GROWTH OF LNG IMPORTS Asia is the top LNG-importing country in the world, and dominates the import infrastructure landscape. It accounts for 66% of current import capacity, and 70% of capacity under construction. Japan has the largest import infrastructure at the national level with 242 millions tons of import capacity per year. China, with 97?million tonnes of import capacity in construction, has the largest lead. Energy infrastructure is durable once it has been built. Natural gas is a dominant energy source in the world. The vast number of gas-fired power plants, pipelines and?LNG installations that are already operational or under construction suggest this. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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Transnet, South Africa's largest freight transporter, returns profit from asset sales and increased volumes
Transnet, the state-owned South?African logistics group, reported Thursday a profit of 4.6 billion rands ($286.05 millions) for the fiscal year ending March 2026. This is the first profit it has made in the last four years. In a press release, the?group of freight rail ports and pipelines said that the profits were mainly due to the sale of its 'Pier 2 terminal as well as an increase in rail and pipe volumes. Due to equipment shortages, and maintenance backlogs, the debt-ridden company has been holding back growth in Africa’s largest economy for years. The performance of the company has begun to improve, thanks in part to government guarantees that have boosted liquidity and prevented a possible debt default. Transnet's?revenues grew 7.1% in the latest financial year to 88.6 Billion Rands.
Aerospacelab signs EUR2.4 billion contract to build the majority of IRIS2 Satellites
Aerospacelab, a Belgian company, announced on Thursday that it had won a contract worth EUR2.4 billion ($2.8 billion) to build 264 satellites to be used in the IRIS2 network of the European Union. This network will provide secure communications to governments, security agencies, and commercial users before 2030.
Aerospacelab said it would be responsible?for building 76% of the planned 348 satellites. This is the largest manufacturing?allocation disclosed for IRIS2, giving a better picture of the?work being divided.
The contract value is approximately EUR9.1million per satellite.
The company announced that it would design and manufacture fully integrated satellites in low-Earth orbit through the Eutelsat SpaceRISE consortium. This consortium was selected to develop and run the network under a concession agreement with the EU.
The allocation of funds to the eight-year-old firm also provides a glimpse into the changing space supply chain in Europe.
The European Space Agency chose Germany's Isar Aerospace last month to 'provide launch services' for parts of its institutional missions. This is a sign that 'newer entrants' are taking a greater role along with 'established contractors' such as Airbus Thales Alenia Space, and OHB.
(source: Reuters)