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Maguire: Super El Nino could throw Europe's gas forecasts out of course

The record-breaking El Nino weather pattern in Europe this winter could limit the amount of gas required by utilities during Europe's peak heating season.

El Nino, which is measured in sea temperatures of the central Pacific Ocean can have a broader impact on the globe. It can cause stronger winds in Europe and temperatures above normal in winter.

The European utilities' natural gas requirements may be constrained by the combination of warmer than usual weather and more sustained winds through early 2027.

This may make moot concerns about Europe's low gas stocks, and dash hopes for a surge in LNG imports from European traders by the end of the year.

SUPERSIZED EL NINO UNDERWAY

El Nino, or a periodic increase in sea surface temperature in the Eastern Pacific due to weaker trade winds, occurs every two to seven years. El Nino occurs every 2-7 years, can last for up to 12 month and has a significant impact on rainfall patterns and temperatures in all regions.

El Nino this year "may be stronger" than any since we began monitoring. "It's literally off the charts," said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo at a press conference in Geneva earlier this month.

El Nino is already responsible for recent record heatwaves and droughts across Europe, but it may still have a significant impact on the region's climate patterns.

According to the meteorological data service Nebbo, El Nino's peak is expected to appear between November and January. This means that Europe’s winter weather patterns will be affected.

El Nino winters are known to cause a negative pressure over the North Atlantic. Gerard Castro wrote in a report that this steers the jetstream, channeling westerlies into the UK, North Sea, Ireland and Scandinavia.

WINDS FAVORABLE

If the weather pattern is as predicted, wind farms in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom -- which account for the majority of Europe's wind power -- will see an increase in production in 2026.

It would be a welcome departure from the recent sub-par wind production trends caused by extended periods of below-normal winds at turbine level. This forced Europe's utilities, to increase generation from other sources.

The term Dunkelflaute, which describes periods of darkness and low solar or wind energy, was coined in Germany.

Due to the lack of sustained winds in wind farm corridors, Germany's peak wind energy production in 2024 and 2025 was far below that in previous calendar years.

Ember reports that these shortfalls in wind power generation occurred despite the fact that Germany's total capacity of wind farms has increased steadily to an all-time high of 82 gigawatts by mid-2026.

According to LSEG's generation data, there are some signs that Germany is beginning to see a turnaround in wind power generation. In August, the output was 30% higher than the average of the previous two years.

Germany's wind farm generated approximately 390,189 Megawatt Hours of Electricity per Hour (MWh/h), compared to 298,000 MWh/h in August last year, and 277,075MWh/h in August 2024.

GAS SQUEEZE

If the wind speeds increase as predicted as autumn approaches, then Germany's wind farm generation levels should continue to rise, with system-wide implications for utilities.

According to Ember, wind farms account for 28% of the total electricity supplied by utilities in Germany.

The next-largest electricity source is coal (around 20%), while natural gas ranks third with an annual production share of roughly 16 percent.

In Germany and Northern Europe, higher wind energy generation tends towards a reduction in coal and gas fired production.

It is possible that during periods of high wind output, utilities will reduce their gas consumption more than they do coal.

Reduced gas consumption in Germany or elsewhere could limit the drawdown of regional gas stocks, as well as reduce interest in buying new gas supplies via liquefied gas imports.

GETTING WARMER

Strong El Ninos are known to cause milder temperatures in the winter, as well as causing a breezier climate across Europe's biggest wind belts.

Strong El Ninos tend to favor what is called a positive North Atlantic Oscillation. This is when high pressure brings mild, moist air?over continental Europe.

LSEG's forecasters predict that these conditions will continue into 2027.

LSEG's weather analysts published a recent outlook for winter 2026-27. They noted that temperatures are expected to be warmer in continental Europe, the Black Sea Region and Scandinavia. Cold risks will only affect north/central Russia and Scandinavia.

The forecasts are subject to change and the current projections of a strengthening El Nino could be a false alarm and lead to a colder and drier winter than expected.

Most major forecasters predict a mild, breezy winter for Europe. This could boost wind farm production far beyond recent stunted levels. It may also trigger sustained reductions in gas consumption throughout the region.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)