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Asian spot LNG prices are rising but Chinese demand is still muted

The price of Asian spot LNG rose this week in line with European gas prices, which rose after the EU announced its plan to phase out Russian natural gas. However, prices are expected lower as Chinese demand is muted.

Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in June Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) is now $11,50, up from $11,00/mmBtu a week ago.

Next month, the European Commission will propose legal measures that would phase out all EU imports of Russian gas and LNG and ban EU spot purchases by 2025.

Gas prices in Europe rose on 6 May following the EU announcement, but remained within a narrow range the rest of the day.

Prices have risen over the past week due to the competition coming from other basins, as well as Europe's need for restocking during the summer injection cycle. The EU announcement only fueled this competition, said Aly Blakeway of S&P Global Commodity Insights, the manager of Atlantic LNG.

Despite the increase in Asian demand, China's demand remained muted despite strong production of gas and healthy pipeline flow. He added that the lack of competition in Europe kept European LNG prices relatively high compared to their natural gas counterparts.

Martin Senior, head LNG pricing at Argus, stated that the price increase in Europe has priced some Asian buyers out. Chinese buyers have withdrawn their offers after at least two spot sales by second-tier purchasers last week.

Senior also added that prices are too high for significant spot demand to come from India.

Arturo Regalado is a senior LNG and Gas Market Analyst at Kpler. He said that Asian LNG prices will be lower next week because of mild weather, large inventories and seasonal soft demand.

The recent TTF rally wasn't driven by demand. The policy and supply risks are driving the market right now, said Regalado. He added that gas-fired generation is not likely to grow much in the future as temperatures rise and wind output improves.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe Gas Marker (NWM), a price benchmark, for cargoes to be delivered in June ex-ship on May 8. This represents a $0.70/mmBtu reduction from the gas price at Dutch TTF hub.

Spark Commodities set the price at $11.041/mmBtu for June, while Argus put it at $11.04/mmBtu.

Spark Commodities analyst Max Glen Doepel said that the U.S. Arbitrage via Panama to North-East Asia remains closed, while the arbitrage via Cape of Good Hope continues to point marginally to Asia.

He added that on Friday the LNG market saw a drop in rates to $39,000/day for Atlantic, but rates for Pacific remained unchanged at $22,500/day. (Reporting and editing by Nina Chestney; Marwa Rashad)

(source: Reuters)