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Bousso: The global push to energy security is highlighted by the tie-up between Japan and Qatar.

Qatar's long term deal to supply Japan’s power giant JERA liquefied gas highlights two themes in the hot market for this super-chilled energy: the race to gain a market share and the global push for energy security.

QatarEnergy, Qatar's national gas and oil company, signed a contract on Tuesday to supply JERA (Japan's largest generator of electricity) with 3 million tons per annum (mtpa), starting in 2028.

The deal for Qatar is a win-win situation that will help it keep up with its largest competitor, the United States.

Qatar has several advantages over other LNG producers, such as lower production costs, and a closer proximity to Asia - the largest and fastest growing LNG market in the world.

The Gulf nation's exports to Japan have fallen from a high of 16,7 million tons in 2013, to around 3 million tons over the past few years, as Japanese demand has weakened and other exporters have increased their competition.

Qatar has been able to secure a number of major deals, including this new one that will double its LNG shipments. Qatar has also signed deals to supply Malaysia, France, and China, the largest LNG importer in the world. These agreements support Qatar's three massive expansion projects, which are expected to increase Qatar's LNG export capability from 77 mtpa to 110 mtpa by the end of this year and to 142 mtpa by 2030.

This explosive growth will help Qatar close the gap between it and the U.S. which, in 2023, became the top LNG exporter. By 2030 the U.S. is expected to have a capacity of more than 200 million tons per year.

JAPAN’S UNCERTAINTY ABOUT ENERGY

The agreement represents a major shift in Japan's energy policy. The world's second largest LNG importer, Japan, was determined to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and expensive gas imports at the beginning of this decade.

Japan's vulnerability to energy is structural. Japan, the world's 4th largest economy, has been reliant on fossil fuel imports for decades.

Japan began importing LNG as early as the 1960s. The fuel became an important part of the country's energy system. After the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, which led to the shut down of many reactors, the consumption of LNG reached a new record high level, 90 million tons, in 2014. It then declined steadily to 66 million tonnes in 2025, as efficiency improvements, renewables and coal restarts along with a declining population eroded gas demand.

What explains Japan’s sudden U-turn in LNG policy? Security is the answer.

Tokyo has reassessed its access to energy supply due to the geopolitical turmoil of recent years, notably in Russia and the Middle East.

In Japan's seventh Strategic Energy Plan, published in February of last year, it was stated that due to international tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the pace of deployment of renewable technologies, the country should be securing long-term LNG contracts, regardless of advancements in renewable technologies.

According to the government plan, securing stable LNG supply was "crucial" for ensuring reliable electricity while reducing dependence on inefficient coal-fired plants. The government called LNG-fired plants "a practical measure."

According to the plan, Japan's LNG demand in 2040 will range from 53-74?mtpa depending on how quickly other energy technologies are deployed.

The new strategy is a radical departure from Japan's earlier approach, which saw the utilities and traders of the country allow several long-term Qatari gas contracts to expire, much to Doha?s frustration, because Japanese buyers placed a high priority on flexibility due to the uncertainty in long-term demand for gas.

Qatar's LNG contract terms are rigid, with long-term durations and strict requirements for cargo delivery to certain ports. This means that buyers cannot sell fuels that exceed their actual demand. Most U.S. producers of LNG offer shorter-term contracts that allow for cargo destination flexibility.

Japan seems to prefer security over flexibility in a world that is more uncertain, even if global?LNG supply has expanded rapidly.

The JERA/QatarEnergy agreement reflects the current tensions in the LNG markets: Net importers face uncertain energy futures while producers want to lock in customers for decades.

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(source: Reuters)