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Asian Airlines' Europe windfall diminishes as Gulf competitors rebound

Industry data shows that Asian airlines who gained passengers and increased fares for European routes following the start of the 'Iran conflict' are now losing those advantages as Gulf carriers offer lower ticket prices and restore flights.

Although the shift was gradual, it raises doubts about whether carriers such as Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific Airways and Korean Air Lines, or ANA Holdings, can maintain much of the share gained during disruption.

Nathan Gee is the head of Asia-Pacific Transportation Research at BofA Global Research. He said that the industry term for seat occupancy, or load factor, has reached its peak. The booking window for long-haul flights is usually six months, so the biggest contribution to revenue will come in the next quarters.

Cirium data shows that Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways transported nearly one-third (and more than half) of all passengers traveling from Asia to Europe, and from Australia and New Zealand to Europe, before the conflict. Flightradar24 shows that at the beginning of the Iran War on February 28, the Gulf hub airports of these airlines were closed because of drone and missile strikes. By mid-June, however, the flights of the 'airlines' had returned to 90% of their normal levels.

According to data from the International Air Transport Association, between March and May, Middle Eastern carriers saw a drop of nearly 60% in passenger numbers compared to a year ago. While non-stop flights from Asia to Europe were up by nearly 30% on an annual basis in March, the increase had shrunk to only 15% by May.

ASIAN FLIGHTS FULL - In June, Australia lifted its "do not travel" warning which had voided insurance policies for travellers at Gulf hubs. Flight Centre Travel Group reported that its bookings for Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad rose 36% in the week following.

As they assessed the situation, some travellers who had booked flights on Gulf carriers before the war bought refundable back-up flights to Europe with Asian airlines. Michael Schischka is a senior advisor at Mary Rossi Travel, Sydney, which specialises in luxury European holidays.

He said, "I'd say that the majority of clients are now more comfortable in the Middle East and feel safer and more secure when flying there." "Asian flights were full, and cheaper fares weren't offered." People are now looking again at Middle East airlines.

Korean Air's spokesperson stated that the airline had seen an increase in its load factor on European routes from March to May. However, the demand for transfer traffic had weakened as Gulf carriers resumed their operations during the second quarter.

ANA has not yet reported data for May, but its load factor for European flights'slid from 93.1% to 86.9% last month, even though it was up 8.7 points on the year. Cathay Pacific said that the load factor on its entire network increased by 2 percentage points from a year ago to 86.8% in May. In March, it was up 9.5 points.

Brendan Sobie, an independent aviation analyst, said that the data indicated a gradual rebalancing rather than a sudden one. Singapore Airlines' trajectory was also indicative of the trend.

In March, the airline's Europe-load factor soared by 13.8 percentages points. However, gains dwindled to just 4.9 points in both April and May.

Sobie stated that "in May, the load factors for Europe and Australia both normalized." "They saw a large increase in March, then a small one in April and a still smaller one in May. "To me, it's a gradual increase and not an overnight one."

Cherie Lavin is a Travel My Dear travel agent in Brisbane. She said that her clients who are looking to fly within the next three months were still hesitant to book with Middle Eastern airlines.

She said, "But for next year I don't think there will be any hesitation in quoting this." "And it is being received well."

(source: Reuters)